The 2004 NY Presidential Vote Scam

 

TruthIsAll

 

Even highly regarded experts get it wrong once in a while. Richard Hayes Phillips, who did a comprehensive analysis which proved that Ohio 2004 was stolen, was no exception when he wrote that the 2004 NY exit polls matched the recorded vote. RHP made the same mistake that countless others make: he was referring to the Final Exit Poll – which is always forced to match the recorded vote. He should have checked the preliminary exit polls and read the Edison-Mitofsky Jan 2005 report (see below).

 

In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60-35-5%. In 2004, Kerry won NY by 58.5-40.2%. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64-35%, which was matched by the Best Geo and Composite exit poll timeline results (see below).  Based on the exit polls, Kerry’s NY margin should have been over 2.1 million votes, but he won the recorded vote by only 1.35 million.

 

Kerry’s margin was reduced by 750,000 votes, which is 25% of Bush’s 3.0m recorded vote “mandate”.  How could Kerry have won by just an 18% margin when Gore won by 25%? Where did Bush get his NY votes? It’s an Urban Legend. Read on.

 

Everyone knew Kerry was going to win NY easily - especially Karl Rove. Bushco knew that winning the popular recorded vote was critical in order to make their “mandate” appear legitimate. They could not have a repeat of 2000 when Gore won the national recorded vote by 540,000 and NY by 1.7 million votes. In 2004, all indications were that Kerry would do even better than Gore. A massive Democratic registration and GOTV effort would bring at least 500,000 new voters. Bush was very unpopular in NY; his NY approval rating was much lower than his national 48%. So Bush had to find a way to keep Kerry’s margin down in order to get his popular vote “mandate”.

 

This analysis shows that Kerry did much better in NY than the recorded vote indicates. The question is not if votes were stolen from Kerry; the question is how it happened. Those who claim to “love my Levers” are mistaken to believe that they are foolproof. They cannot verify and prove that their votes were counted accurately.  In fact, historical evidence indicates that Lever machine vote counts are highly vulnerable to rigging – and not just in NY. It’s not a HAVA or Lever vs. Optical-scan issue. The issue is whether NY will have a verifiable vote count.

 

Victoria Collier writes in "Votescam" Many people still in power have yet to be held accountable for their role in aiding and abetting vote fraud. I'll give you two important examples. Famous Miami lawyer Ellis Rubin brought the original Votescam evidence to the Florida assistant State Attorney at the time, Janet Reno. The evidence included the shaved wheels of lever voting machines, forged canvass sheets, and pre-printed vote tally sheets. Reno refused to prosecute, claiming falsely that the statue of limitations had run out on the crime. Years later, Rubin would tell my father that behind closed doors Reno had stated that she could not prosecute. Why? Because she would bring down many of the most powerful people in the state”.

 

The Edison-Mitofsky state exit poll timeline (see below) shows that the discrepancies declined nationally as they were adjusted for pre-election polls and voter turnout. TheNew York exit polls declined from 65% (Best GEO) to 63% (1240am Composite). And then the final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not released by E-M until Jan. 2005. Their report shows that the unadjusted exit poll discrepancies were greater than those which were downloaded by Jonathan Simon from the Internet at 12:22am. In other words, the full extent of the apparent fraud was much greater than the original estimate – but this was not known until three months after the election.  Yet even the Election Day adjusted exit polls raised many red flags.

 

Briefly, this is a summary of red flags which indicate that the NY 2004 election was rigged to inflate Bush’s mandate:

Kerry won the NY recorded vote by:  58.5-40.2% (4.314- 2.963m). There were 7.391m total votes recorded.

1)      NY exit polls (unadjusted and adjusted) showed Kerry to be a 64-35% winner.

2)      In 2000, Al Gore won the recorded vote by 60-35% (4% to Nader).

3)      Returning Nader voters went for Kerry by 3-1 over Bush.

4)      In 2000, there were 552,000 late (absentee, provisional, etc.) ballots. Gore won 65.4%.

5)      In 2004, there were 499,000 late votes. Kerry won 65.8%.

6)      The National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry, while only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

7)      Kerry won the majority (57-61%) of new voters.

 

Dan Rather's voting machine expose was a clear example of how mechanical voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts. The report illustrated a method used to hack mechanical voting machines (punch card or lever).

 

Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote the myth that the pre-election polls was correct and the exit polls were way off. In essence, they are claiming that the final pre-election poll matched a fraud-free recorded vote. But they can’t provide evidence that  the votes were counted accurately. They failed to consider late absentee and provisional ballots which provide further evidence that the vote count was bogus.

 

There are fundamental flaws in their arguments.

 

1- They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2 - Bush 35.2 - Nader 3.6.  Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returningNader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.  In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.

 

2- They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%).  Since the MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the 60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.

  

3- They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%.  The assumptions were as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%. 

 

4- They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%.  If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).

                                            

5- They failed to consider late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.). There were a total of 7.36 million votes recorded in NY of which 500,000 were late and not recorded until a few days after the election. Kerry won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m votes; Kerry won 65.8% of the late 500,000 (very close to his 65% exit poll).  There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).  This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner.  The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

 

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate Vote shares

Method     Kerry   Avg WPE Wtd Avg   Description

VNS        51.81%   5.95%   7.09%    VNS: 4 outliers removed from average

DSS        52.15%   6.73%   7.77%    Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed

IMS        51.91%   6.29%   7.37%    Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed

 

NY 2004  

(recorded votes in millions)

Kerry   Bush    Other   Total

4.314   2.963   0.114   7.391

58.5%   40.2%   1.3%    100%

 

NY 2000 

Gore    Bush    Nader   Other   Total

4.108   2.403   0.244   0.67    6.822

60.2%   35.2%   3.6%    1.0%    100%

 

NY True Vote Calculation:  
Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
 
Kerry’s NY vote shares had to be higher than equivalent national (NEP) shares.
 
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other   NEP
DNV               1.236    16.7%     61%     37%      2%   57-41%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     94%     5%       1%   91-8%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     12%     88%      0%   10-90%
Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      68%     13%      19%  64-17%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     63.45%   35.07%   1.48%
                           7.376    4.680    2.587    0.109 

 

Notes:

1. Kerry won three NY exit poll measures by an average 64.1%.  His recorded share was 58.5%.

2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest average WPE (10.6%). New York votes 99% by Lever.

3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.

4. Kerry’s NY vote share was 10% higher than his national share. Therefore, his NY shares must have exceeded the national shares (note 3).

5. Kerry won 66% of the final 500k votes but only 58% of the initial 6.8m; Gore won 74% of the final 500k and 60% of the initial 6.3m.

6. Kerry won approximately 75% of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).

7. Kerry had his highest NY shares in the four counties which had the highest rates of voting incidents.

8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from 2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.

 

9. Kerry won returning Nader voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by 16%. Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush. If we conservatively assume that Kerry’s share of New and former NY Gore voters was just 1% higher than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match the official count!  The net defection rate would have had to flip from Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY vote share by over 5%? Do you believe in magic?

 

10.  This is the essence of the Urban Legend: Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban strongholds yet did not do well in small towns and rural areas, his own strongholds. Seven strongly Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total recorded vote; Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%)  from 2000; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%) over Gore; Nader lost 89k. In other counties, Bush had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%). 

 

This NY County graph illustrates the Bush Urban Legend: the implausible in votes from 2000 to 2004 for the largest 15 NY counties.

 

11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of returning Nader voters, Kerry would have a 72/27% margin in the seven counties assuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected and 8% of Gore voters defected. Assuming a net 2% defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73/26% margin in the seven counties. So how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% increase in Bush margin!

 

The Bottom Line

 

NY is becoming bluer in every election. It was even bluer in 2004 than it was in 2000 when Gore won by 25%. But some suggest that the NY exit polls which showed Kerry winning by 64-35% were in error and that the recorded vote (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) was equal to the True vote. With that logic, if the exit poll shares were also off by the same percentage everywhere else, then Bush would have won a landslide by 64-57m (52.5-46.5%).  Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0m (50.7-48.3%). The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 63.6-57.3m (52-47%). 

 

Did Mitofsky have it in for New Yorkers? Why would lever machine states NY and CT be off the WPE map with 11% and 16%, respectively?


To steal the 2004 election, Bushco needed to win the highly-contested states electoral votes as well as a solid popular vote mandate to make the theft appear legitimate. These were the critical states that Bushco needed: 
1) hard-fought Battleground states for electoral votes (OH, FL, IA, NM, etc.) 
2) heavily Democratic states (NY, CT, CA, NJ, MA, etc) to pad the popular vote so that no one would notice. After all, 58.5% of the NY vote is still a landslide, so who would question it?

 

The statistical evidence points to massive fraud in NY. Let's do the math (assume equal Gore/Bush defections):
2000: Gore 60%, Bush 35%, Nader/other 5%
Give 3/4 of Nader votes to Kerry, 1/4 to Bush.
2004: Kerry 63%, Bush 36%, Other 1%

NY voted 10% higher for Kerry than the rest of the nation. According to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush (2% net to Kerry). It's safe to assume that in NY, net defection to Kerry was at least 3%. And Kerry won 57-61% of new voters nationwide. It's safe to assume that he had 63-67% of new voters in NY. Unless Bush won 16% of Gore voters and Kerry just 9% of Bush voters, there is no way that Kerry only had 58.5% of the vote. Even if levers are accurate (a big if), that doesn't mean the vote counters are honest. 


Naysayers love their levers and don't want them replaced by optical scanners.  It would be like tearing down the Statue of Liberty. They are right. Optical scanners can be rigged. But for them to claim that the NY and CT exit polls (2-3% MoE) were uniquely off by 12-16% is really stretching it. 

How about HCPB? Why just assume that the votes were counted correctly? Trust, but verify.
 

 

 

 

 

Implausible Kerry/Bush vote shares required to match the NY and CT recorded votes

 

This comprehensive statistical analysis shows that the 2004 New York and Connecticut recorded votes were virtually impossible.

Hundreds of vote share scenarios were applied to realistic estimates of new and returning 2000 voters.

Implausible vote shares were required to obtain the final recorded vote; realistic vote shares matched the exit polls.

The recorded vote cannot be explained by anything other than massive vote miscounts.

 

In 2004, New York and Connecticut were the only states to exclusively use lever voting machines.

Lever advocates need to appreciate the overwhelming statistical evidence that the vote count was rigged.

The evidence should be viewed from an unbiased mathematical standpoint.

All of the statistical tables should be reviewed and clearly understood.

 

New York

1) In 2000, 6.82m votes were recorded in NY.

2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader/other 4.6%

3) Of the 6.82m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.

4) Approximately 6.16m Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.

 

5) In 2004, a total of 7.39m votes were recorded.

6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 58.5%, Bush 40.2%, Nader/other 1.3%

7) Approximately 1.23m voters were newly registered or did not vote in 2000.

8) In 2004, the vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

9) Kerry’s recorded NY vote share (58.5%) far exceeded his national share (48.4%).

10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.

11) Kerry won 65.8% of 500,000 late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.)

 

Scenarios I, II and IV (below) indicate that implausible vote shares are required to match the recorded NY vote.

On the contrary, Scenario III shows that plausible vote shares cause a match to the three NY exit poll measures:

Unadjusted WPE (64.1%), Best GEO (65.1%) and the 12:40am Composite (63.1%)

 

NY Pre-election            Kerry   Bush   Nader

Poll                       57       39     1

Projection                 59       40     1

Recorded vote              58.5    40.2    1.3

 

NY Exit Poll Timeline

WPE (11.4)                 64.1    34.4    1.5

GEO Best Estimate          65.1    33.8    1.1 

Composite (12:40am)        63.1    35.5    1.4

 

Based on an analysis of the above, one must conclude that Bush’s recorded NY vote share was virtually impossible.

Bush’s vote gains in the 15 largest NY counties exceeded those of Kerry – it’s an Urban Legend.

 

Connecticut

A similar analysis shows that Connecticut was miscounted as well.

The WPE was a whopping (15.7%), compared to NY (11.4%)

 

1) In 2000, 1.46m votes were recorded in CT.

2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader/other 5.7%

3) Of the 1.46m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.

4) Approximately 1.32 Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.

 

5) In 2004, a total of 1.58m votes were recorded.

6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 54.3%, Bush 44.0%, Nader/other 1.7%

7) Approximately 0.26m voters were newly registered or did not vote in 2000.

8) The vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

9) Kerry’s recorded CT vote share (54.3%) far exceeded his national share (48.4%).

10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.

11) Kerry won the exit poll with 62.2%

 

Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes, but his True margin was 400,000 votes.

 

CT Pre-election            Kerry   Bush   Nader

Poll                       52      42      6

Projection                 55.8    43.2    1.0

Recorded vote              54.3%   43.9%   1.9%

 

CT Exit Poll Timeline

WPE (15.7)                 62.2%   36.1%    1.7%

GEO Best Estimate          59.3    39.6     1.1 

Composite (12:40am)        58.1    40.5     1.6

 

 

Approximately 1.0 million of the 3.0 million Bush 2004 margin was due to vote miscounts in NY and CT.

NY added 750,000 votes; CT added 240,000.

 

National Vote share based on 51 State Exit Polls (WPE)

Method     Kerry   Avg WPE Wtd Avg   Description

VNS        51.81%   5.95%   7.09%    VNS: 4 outliers removed from average

DSS        52.15%   6.73%   7.77%    Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed

IMS        51.91%   6.29%   7.37%    Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed

 

 

 

2004 New York Election Calculator

 

Scenario I:

Implausible Shares of New (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote

 

To match the NY recorded vote. Bush needed 689,000 (56%) of new voters compared to 516,000 (42%) for Kerry.

This is implausible because:

a) Kerry won new voters nationally with 57-62% (see the National Exit Poll timeline).

b) Kerry's recorded 58.5% vote share in NY exceeded his 48.4% national share.

c) Kerry’s 64% NY Exit Poll exceeded his 52% aggregate state exit poll.

 

Conclusion: it is reasonable to assume that Kerry won new voters in NY by 66-33%.

Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).

 

2000

 

 

 

   2004

 

 

Required

Vote

Shares

 

Recorded

  Died

  Alive

  Voted

  Voted

  Mix

 Kerry

 Bush

 Other

DNV adj)

    -

    -

   -

    -

1.23

16.7%

42%

56%

2%

 

Gore

4.11

0.20

3.91

95%

3.71

50.2%

91%

8%

1%

Bush

2.40

0.12

2.29

95%

2.17

29.3%

10%

90%

0%

Nader/other

0.31

0.01

0.30

95%

0.28

3.8%

71%

21%

8%

 

Total

6.82

0.33

6.49

6.16

7.39

100%

58.3%

40.6%

1.1%

Total

 

 

 

 

 

7.39

4.31

3.00

0.08

 

Scenario II:  

Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote

 

Kerry’s Final NEP national vote shares had to be reduced in NY in order to match the recorded vote.

That is illogical:  Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.4% national share.

Kerry’s NY vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding National Exit Poll shares.

 

Conclusion: Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).

 

2000

 

 

 

   2004

 

 

Required

 Vote       

Shares

 

Recorded

  Died

  Alive

  Voted

  Voted

  Mix

 Kerry

 Bush

 Other

DNV

    -

    -

   -

    -

1.23

16.7%

53%

45%

2%

Gore

4.11

0.20

3.91

95%

3.71

50.2%

89%

10%

1%

Bush

2.40

0.12

2.29

95%

2.17

29.3%

8%

92%

0%

Nader/other

0.31

0.01

0.30

95%

0.28

3.8%

71%

21%

8%

 

Total

6.82

0.33

6.49

6.16

7.39

100%

58.6%

40.3%

1.1%

Total

 

 

 

 

 

7.39

4.33

2.98

0.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scenario III: 

Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the NY exit poll

 

Kerry’s Final NEP vote shares had to be increased to match the NY exit poll (see below).

This is logical and expected: Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.

Therefore, Kerry’s NY vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.

 

Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded 1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.

Kerry won by 64-35% (approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.

 

2000

 

 

 

   2004

 

 

Required   

Vote

Shares

 

Recorded

  Died

  Alive

  Voted

  Voted

  Mix

 Kerry

 Bush

 Other

DNV

    -

    -

   -

    -

1.23

16.7%

66%

32%

2%

Gore

4.11

0.20

3.91

95%

3.71

50.2%

93%

6%

1%

Bush

2.40

0.12

2.29

95%

2.17

29.3%

12%

88%

0%

Nader/other

0.31

0.01

0.30

95%

0.28

3.8%

75%

17%

8%

 

Total

6.82

0.33

6.49

6.16

7.39

100%

64.1%

34.8%

1.1%

Total

 

 

 

 

 

7.39

4.73

2.57

0.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scenario IV: 

Impossible Shares of new (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote

 

This scenario assumes Scenario III vote shares.

The goal:  determine the required Bush share of new voters in order to match the recorded vote.

Bush needed 66% of new voters.

 

This is not implausible; it is impossible.

Plausible Scenario III indicates he had 32%.

 

Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded 1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.

Kerry won by 64-35% (approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.

 

2000

 

 

 

   2004

 

 

Required   

Vote

Shares

 

Recorded

  Died

  Alive

  Voted

  Voted

  Mix

 Kerry

 Bush

 Other

DNV

    -

    -

   -

    -

1.23

16.7%

32%

66%

2%

Gore

4.11

0.20

3.91

95%

3.71

50.2%

93%

6%

1%

Bush

2.40

0.12

2.29

95%

2.17

29.3%

12%

88%

0%

Nader/other

0.31

0.01

0.30

95%

0.28

3.8%

75%

17%

8%

 

Total

6.82

0.33

6.49

6.16

7.39

100%

58.4%

40.5%

1.1%

Total

 

 

 

 

 

7.39

4.31

2.99

0.08

 

Sensitivity Analysis
25 scenario combinations of Kerry New and Gore 2000 voter share

 

Note the scenario which matches the recorded vote share (58.4-40.2%):

Bush needed 50% of new voters and 13% of Kerry voters.

But in the Final NEP, Bush had 45% of new voters and 10% of Kerry voters.

How could he have done 3-5% better in NY than he did nationally?

His national share was 10% higher than his NY share.

 

Conclusion:

He could not have won 40.2% of the New York vote.

Share 
of Gore Share of New voters (DNV) 
Voters 50%  54%  58%   62%   66%


       Kerry NY Vote Share 
95%    62.4 63.0 63.7 64.4 65.1
93%    61.4 62.0 62.7 63.4 64.0
91%    60.4 61.0 61.7 62.4 63.0
89%    59.4 60.0 60.7 61.4 62.0
87%    58.4 59.0 59.7 60.4 61.0

       
Kerry Margin 
95%    1.91 2.01 2.11 2.21 2.31 
93%    1.77 1.86 1.96 2.06 2.16 
91%    1.62 1.72 1.82 1.91 2.01 
89%    1.47 1.57 1.67 1.77 1.86 
87%    1.32 1.42 1.52 1.62 1.72

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis
105 Vote Share Scenarios
 
Kerry vote share scenario ranges:
of Bush: 9-11%
of Gore:86-94%
of New: 30-70%
 
Implausible scenarios:
Kerry share equal to Recorded vote:58.4%
 
Plausible scenarios:
Kerry share equal to Exit Poll:64.1% 
 
 
     Kerry Share of New Voters 
       Implausible       Plausible
Gore   30%   40%   50%       60% 70
%
 
Kerry share of Bush:11% 
 
94.0% 58.1% 59.8% 61.4%     63.1% 64.8% plausible
92.0% 57.1% 58.8% 60.4%     62.1% 63.8% 
90.0% 56.1% 57.8% 59.4%     61.1% 62.8%
 
88.0% 55.1% 56.8% 58.4%     60.1% 61.8% implausible
86.0% 54.1% 55.7% 57.4%     59.1% 60.8%
85.0% 53.1% 54.7% 56.4%     58.1% 59.8%
84.0% 52.1% 53.7% 55.4%     57.1% 58.8% 
 
 
Kerry share of Bush:10% 
 
94.0% 57.8% 59.5% 61.1%     62.8% 64.5% plausible
92.0% 56.8% 58.5% 60.1%     61.8% 63.5% 
90.0% 55.8% 57.5% 59.1%     60.8% 62.5%
 
88.0% 54.8% 56.5% 58.1%     59.8% 61.5% implausible
86.0% 53.8% 55.5% 57.1%     58.8% 60.5%
85.0% 52.8% 54.5% 56.1%     57.8% 59.5%
84.0% 51.8% 53.5% 55.1%     56.8% 58.5% 

 
Kerry share of Bush:9% 
 
94.0% 57.5% 59.2% 60.8%     62.5% 64.2% plausible
92.0% 56.5% 58.2% 59.8%     61.5% 63.2% 
90.0% 55.5% 57.2% 58.8%     60.5% 62.2% 
 
88.0% 54.5% 56.2% 57.8%     59.5% 61.2% implausible
86.0% 53.5% 55.2% 56.8%     58.5% 60.2%
85.0% 52.5% 54.2% 55.8%     57.5% 59.2%
84.0% 51.5% 53.2% 54.8%     56.5% 58.2% 



 

Connecticut

 

2000 recorded

Gore               Bush              Other         Total

0.816     0.561     0.082   1.460

55.91%    38.44%    5.65%  

 

2004 recorded

Kerry               Bush              Other         Total

0.857      0.694     0.027   1.579

54.31%     43.95%    1.74%       

 

2004 Exit Poll

62.2%      36.1%     1.7%   

 

Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes.

The following scenarios indicate that his True margin was 400,000 votes.

 

Scenario I: 

Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the recorded vote

 

Kerry’s Final NEP vote shares had to be decreased to match the CT recorded vote.

This is logical and expected: Kerry's recorded 54.3% CT vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.

Therefore, Kerry’s CT vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.

 

 

2000

 

 

 

   2004

 

 

Required   

Vote

Shares

 

Recorded

  Died

  Alive

  Voted

  Voted

  Mix

 Kerry

 Bush

 Other

DNV

    -

    -

   -

    -

0.26

16.6%

52%

46%

2%

Gore

0.82

0.04

0.78

95%

0.73

46.5%

86%

14%

1%

Bush

0.56

0.03

0.51

95%

0.51

32.3%

8%

92%

0%

Nader/other

0.08

0.00

0.08

95%

0.07

4.7%

65%

27%

8%

 

Total

1.46

0.07

1.39

1.32

1.58

100%

54.2%

44.6%

1.2%

Total

 

 

 

 

 

1.58

0.86

0.70

0.02

 

 

 Scenario II: 

Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the exit poll

 

Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded 160k margin (Kerry 54.3-Bush 44.0%) was too low.

Kerry won by approximately 62-37%, a 400k vote margin.

 

2000

 

 

 

   2004

 

 

Required   

Vote

Shares

 

Recorded

  Died

  Alive

  Voted

  Voted

  Mix

 Kerry

 Bush

 Other

DNV

    -

    -

   -

    -

0.26

16.6%

66%

32%

2%

Gore

0.82

0.04

0.78

95%

0.73

46.5%

94%

5%

1%

Bush

0.56

0.03

0.51

95%

0.51

32.3%

12%

88%

0%

Nader/other

0.08

0.00

0.08

95%

0.07

4.7%

75%

17%

8%

 

Total

1.46

0.07

1.39

1.32

1.58

100%

62.0%

36.8%

1.2%

Total

 

 

 

 

 

1.58

0.98

0.58

0.02

 

 

 

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

Voted 2000 Demographic

 

In order for Final National Exit poll to match the recorded vote, all category weightings and/or vote shares were adjusted.

Bush had 50.45m votes in 2000 (41.3% of the 122.3m votes recorded in 2004).

Approximately 5% of Election 2000 voters died; and 5% did not vote in 2004.

Therefore, only 45.5m (37.2%) Bush voters returned to vote in 2004.

 

Conclusion: The Bush weightings (41-43%) are mathematically impossible throughout the timeline.

 
NEP Update       3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am  Final Weight   3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am Final   Share 
Respondents      8349     11027    13047    13660 Change   8349     11027    13047   13660   Change
 
VOTED 2000             Percentage Weighting                         Voted for Kerry                                                      
Did Not Vote     15       17       17       17               62       59       57       54      -3
Gore             39       38       39       37    -2         91       91       91       90      -1
Bush             42       41       41       43    +2          9        9       10        9      -1
Nader/Other       4        4        3        3               61       65       71       71
 
Vote share       100      100      100      100              51.01    50.90    51.41    48.48
Vote (mil)                                                   62.36    62.23    62.85    59.27

 

 

Average Voting Machine WPE for all Exit Poll Precincts

Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the highest mean Within Precinct Error (10.6%). 

Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (2.2%)

New York votes 99% by Lever.

 

Polling

Place

WPE

mean

WPE median

 

Number precincts

Paper

Ballot

2.2

0.9

 

40

Mechanical

Voting

10.6

10.3

 

118

Touch

Screen

7.1

7.0

 

360

Punch

Cards

6.6

7.3

 

158

Optical

Scan

6.1

5.5

 

573

 

 

The Final 5 million votes

 

Final Recorded Vote

Bush              62,040,610       50.73%

Kerry             59,028,439       48.27%

Other              1,224,499        1.00%

Total            122,293,548        100%

 

Initial 117m votes                        

Bush              59,834,866       51.02%

Kerry             56,373,514       48.07%

Other             1,073,874        0.91%

Total            117,282,254        100%

 

Late 5m votes

Bush              2,205,744        44.02%

Kerry             2,654,925        52.98%

Other              150,625          3.00%

Total             5,011,294         100%

 

Recorded   Kerry    Votes

Final      48.27%   122.29m

Initial    48.07%   117.28m

Late       52.98%     5.01m

 

 

Kerry Initial, Late and Final Vote Share                                             

 (2-party)

* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes

 

        Final   Initial    Late    Change    WPE      Exit

Wtd      48.8%   48.5%     54.3%    5.8%    5.8%     51.6%

Unwtd    48.4%   48.4%     52.0%    3.7%    6.0%     51.5%

 

Weighted

East     56.5%    56.2%    62.4%    6.2%     9.7%     61.3%

Midw     48.1%    48.1%    56.1%    8.1%     3.4%     49.8%

South    42.7%    42.6%    46.6%    4.0%     5.8%     45.6%

West     41.7%    41.7%    41.9%    0.2%     4.8%     44.1%

FarW     53.2%    53.3%    53.0%    -0.2%    6.4%  ;   56.4%

 

        Final    Initial   Late    Change     WPE      Exit    

East                                               

CT       55.3%    55.3%    56.3%    1.0%     15.7%    63.3%

DC*      90.5%    90.5%    90.5%    0.0%     3.4%     92.2%

DE*      53.8%    53.8%    67.3%    13.4%    15.9%    61.9%

MA       62.7%    62.7%    71.5%    8.8%     5.8%     65.7%

MD       56.6%    56.2%    60.3%    4.1%     8.1%     60.7%

                                                   

ME*      54.6%    54.5%    87.3%    33.0%    3.8%     56.5%

NH*      50.7%    50.7%    55.8%    5.2%     13.6%    57.6%

NJ       53.4%    53.1%    57.6%    4.5%     9.7%     58.3%

NY       59.3%    58.8%    65.8%    7.0%     11.4%    65.1%

PA       51.3%    51.1%    58.6%    7.5%     8.8%     55.7%

RI       60.6%    60.5%    62.6%    2.1%     4.7%     63.0%

VT*      60.3%    60.3%    48.7%    -11.6%   15.0%  &nbssp; 68.0%

                                                   

        Final    Initial   Late     Change    WPE     Exit    

Midwest                                            

IA       49.7%    49.5%    62.1%    12.6%    3.0%     51.2%

IL       55.2%    55.1%    70.3%    15.2%    4.4%     57.4%

IN       39.6%    39.5%    62.0%    22.6%    1.5%     40.3%

KS       37.1%    37.0%    42.7%    5.8%     1.7%     38.0%

OH       48.9%    48.7%    56.2%    7.4%     10.9%    54.4%

                                                   

MI       51.7%    51.7%    58.4%    6.7%     6.3%     54.9%

MN       51.8%    51.8%    47.9%    -3.9%    9.3%  ;   56.5%

MO       46.4%    46.3%    63.8%    17.5%    5.8%     49.3%

ND*      36.1%    36.1%    37.4%    1.3%     -5.2%    33.4%

NE       33.2%    33.0%    43.6%    10.6%    8.1%     37.3%

                                                   

OK*      34.4%    34.4%    34.4%    0.0%     -1.9%    33.5%

SD       39.1%    39.1%    32.8%    -6.3%    -4.2%  p;  37.0%

WI       50.2%    50.2%    36.3%    -13.9%    4.7%    52.6%

 

        Final    Initial   Late     Change   WPE      Exit    

South                                              

AL*      37.1%    37.1%    67.6%    30.6%    11.3%    42.8%

AR       45.1%    45.0%    48.2%    3.2%     0.5%     45.3%

FL       47.5%    47.5%    50.5%    3.0%     7.6%     51.3%

GA       41.6%    41.6%    46.2%    4.6%     2.2%     42.8%

LA       42.7%    42.6%    79.5%    36.9%    3.8%     44.6%

                                                   

KY*      40.0%    40.0%    30.2%    -9.8%    -0.1%  &nnbsp; 39.9%

MS       40.1%    40.0%    44.2%    4.3%     11.3%    46.2%

NC       43.8%    43.7%    45.4%    1.6%     11.3%    49.4%

SC       41.4%    41.3%    45.1%    3.8%     10.0%    46.4%

TN*      42.8%    42.8%    56.0%    13.2%    0.5%     43.1%

                                                   

VA       45.9%    45.8%    48.8%    3.0%     7.9%     49.8%

WV       43.5%    43.6%    40.5%    -3.0%    -5.8%  &nnbsp; 40.6%

TX       38.5%    38.5%    45.3%    6.8%     4.8%     40.9%

 

        Final    Initial   Late     Change   WPE      Exit    

West                                               

CO       47.6%    47.3%    53.6%    6.3%     6.1%     50.7%

ID*      30.7%    30.7%    15.4%    -15.3%   1.0%   p;&nnbsp; 31.2%

MT*      39.5%    39.5%    37.0%    -2.5%    -1.8%  &nnbsp; 38.6%

NM       49.6%    49.4%    61.4%    11.9%    7.8%     53.5%

NV       48.7%    48.7%    50.4%    1.8%     10.1%    53.8%

                                                   

UT       26.7%    27.1%    21.4%    -5.7%    6.4%  &nbbsp;  29.9%

WY*      29.7%    29.7%    23.8%    -5.9%    4.3%  &nbbsp;  31.9%

 

        Final    Initial   Late     Change   WPE      Exit    

Far West                                           

AK       36.8%    36.2%    39.0%    2.8%     9.6%     41.7%

AZ       44.7%    44.7%    44.7%    -0.1%    4.6%  &nbbsp;  47.0%

CA       55.0%    55.2%    54.4%    -0.8%    10.9%  &nnbsp; 60.6%

HI*      54.4%    54.4%    82.6%    28.3%    4.7%     56.8%

OR       52.1%    52.0%    54.6%    2.6%     0.0%     52.1%

WA       53.6%    53.5%    57.7%    4.2%     8.4%     57.9%

 

 


Initial and Final Recorded Votes

(in thousands)

 

         Final                              Initial                             Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207    810

                                                                                                          

East     26421    14744    11361    316      25262    14112    10980    170      1159     632      381     146

Midwest  32404    15470    16670    264      31960    15320    16552    87       444      150      117     177

South    37662    15943    21436    284      37142    15790    21261    90       521      153      175     194

West     5936     2437     3404     96       5699     2360     3298     41       238      76       106      56

Far West 19870    10435    9171     264      16592    8822     7743     26       3278     1613     1428     238

                                                                                                          

East                                                                                                    

CT       1579     857      694      27       1544     846      685      13       35       11       9        15

DC*      228      203      21       3        226      203      21       1        2        0        0        2

DE*      375      200      172      3        374      200      172      2        2        0        0        1

MA       2912     1804     1071     37       2861     1794     1067     0        51       10       4        37

MD       2387     1334     1025     27       2186     1224     952      11       200      111      73       17

                                                                                                          

ME*      741      397      330      14       734      395      330      8        7        1        0        5

NH*      678      341      331      6        675      340      331      4        2        0        0        2

NJ       3612     1911     1670     30       3405     1799     1587     19       206      112      83       12

NY       7391     4314     2963     114      6892     3993     2796     104      499      321      167      11

PA       5770     2938     2794     38       5643     2886     2757     0        127      52       37       38

RI       437      260      169      8        413      247      162      4        24       12       7        4

VT*      312      184      121      7        309      184      121      4        4        0        0        3

 

 

 

 
NY 2004 Election Calculator 
 
Plausible Scenario Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
  
Scenario 1:  
(12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares)
 1.22% annual voter mortality
                                                    
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV      0%       1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%       1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     10%     90%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250     3.4%     64%     17%      19%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     60.54%   37.98%   1.48%
                          7.376     4.465    2.801    0.109
                                                    
Scenario 2:  
(Kerry vote shares increased for NY)                                                                                           
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV               1.236    16.7%     61%     37%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     94%     5%       1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     12%     88%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      68%     13%      19%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     63.45%   35.07%   1.48%
                           7.376    4.680    2.587    0.109 
 
 
Scenario 3 (most likely):
Uncounted votes: 5%
Gore and Kerry share of uncounted: 75%
                                                    
        Turnout  Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV       -       1.30    16.8%    61%      37%      2%
Gore     95%     3.96     51.0%    94%      5%       1%
Bush     95%     2.23     28.8%    12%      88%      0%
Other    95%     0.27     3.4%     68%      13%      19%
                                            
Total   6.46     7.76     100%     64.0%    34.5%    1.5%
                         7.76     4.97     2.68     0.12 
 
Sensitivity Analysis                            
                 
Kerry    Kerry share of New voters                   
%Gore    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%    63.0%    65.0%
Voters 
         Kerry NY Vote Share                        
98%      65.4%    65.7%    66.0%    66.4%    66.7%
96%      64.3%    64.7%    65.0%    65.3%    65.7%
94%      63.3%    63.7%    64.0%    64.3%    64.7%
92%      62.3%    62.6%    63.0%    63.3%    63.6%
90%      61.3%    61.6%    61.9%    62.3%    62.6%
                                            
          Kerry Margin                      
98%      2.50     2.55     2.61     2.66     2.71 
96%      2.34     2.39     2.45     2.50     2.55 
94%      2.18     2.24     2.29     2.34     2.39 
92%      2.03     2.08     2.13     2.18     2.23 
90%      1.87     1.92     1.97     2.02     2.08 
 
 
Gore     Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
share    93.0%    94.0%    95.0%    96.0%    97.0%
Unctd
Votes    Kerry NY Vote Share                         
85%      64.0%    64.2%    64.3%    64.5%    64.7%
80%      63.8%    64.0%    64.2%    64.3%    64.5%
75%      63.6%    63.8%    64.0%    64.2%    64.3%
70%      63.5%    63.6%    63.8%    64.0%    64.2%
65%      63.3%    63.5%    63.6%    63.8%    64.0%
                                            
          Kerry Margin                      
85%      2.29     2.32     2.34     2.37     2.40 
80%      2.26     2.29     2.32     2.34     2.37 
75%      2.23     2.26     2.29     2.32     2.34 
70%      2.20     2.23     2.26     2.29     2.32 
65%      2.18     2.20     2.23     2.26     2.29 

 

This table shows how the state exit poll discrepancies declined as they were adjusted prior to the final. The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not released by Edison-Mitofsky until Jan.2005. The data indicated that the discrepancies were much greater than for the polls originally downloaded at 12:22am by Jonathan Simon. In other words, the full extent of the apparent fraud was much greater than the original estimate – but this was not known until three months after the election.  

 

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/WPDConfirmation.htm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECORDED VOTE

 

WPE (WITHIN PRECINCT ERROR)

 

 

BEST GEO

 

 

 

 

COMPOSITE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.exitpollz.org/

 

 

12:40am

 

 

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

WPE

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

EV

 

 

Total

48.27

50.73

(2.46)

251

 

51.84

47.18

4.7

7.11

324

 

51.04

48.49

2.56

5.01

301

 

50.26

49.11

1.15

3.60

288

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

36.8

62.5

(25.6)

 

 

42.5

56.8

(14.3)

11.3

 

 

42.0

57.5

(15.5)

10.1

 

 

40.6

58.7

(18.1)

7.5

 

 

 

AK

35.5

61.1

(25.5)

 

 

40.3

56.3

(15.9)

9.6

 

 

41.2

57.4

(16.2)

9.3

 

 

39.0

58.8

(19.8)

5.7

 

 

 

AZ

44.4

54.9

(10.5)

 

 

46.7

52.6

(5.9)

4.6

 

 

46.5

53.5

(7.0)

3.5

 

 

46.8

53.2

(6.4)

4.1

 

 

 

AR

44.5

54.3

(9.8)

 

 

44.8

54.1

(9.3)

0.5

 

 

46.8

52.4

(5.6)

4.2

 

 

47.0

52.2

(5.2)

4.6

 

 

 

CA

54.3

44.4

9.9

55

 

59.8

38.9

20.8

10.9

55

 

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

55

 

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

47.0

51.7

(4.7)

 

 

50.1

48.6

1.4

6.1

9

 

47.0

52.5

(5.5)

(0.8)

 

 

47.7

51.4

(3.7)

1.0

 

 

 

CT

54.3

43.9

10.4

7

 

62.2

36.1

26.1

15.7

7

 

59.3

39.6

19.7

9.3

7

 

58.1

40.5

17.6

7.2

7

 

 

DE

53.3

45.8

7.6

3

 

61.3

37.8

23.5

15.9

3

 

61.5

37.9

23.6

16.0

3

 

57.7

41.2

16.5

8.9

3

 

 

DC

89.2

9.3

79.8

3

 

90.9

7.6

83.2

3.4

3

 

91.1

8.1

83.0

3.2

3

 

90.2

8.4

81.8

2.0

3

 

 

FL

47.1

52.1

(5.0)

 

 

50.9

48.3

2.6

7.6

27

 

49.2

50.3

(1.1)

3.9

 

 

49.3

50.1

(0.8)

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

41.4

58.0

(16.6)

 

 

42.5

56.9

(14.4)

2.2

 

 

43.5

56.5

(13.0)

3.6

 

 

43.0

57.1

(14.1)

2.5

 

 

 

HI

54.0

45.3

8.7

4

 

56.4

42.9

13.4

4.7

4

 

56.5

43.4

13.1

4.4

4

 

53.6

46.4

7.2

(1.5)

4

 

 

ID

30.3

68.4

(38.1)

 

 

30.8

67.9

(37.1)

1.0

 

 

30.9

69.1

(38.2)

(0.1)

 

 

31.6

68.3

(36.7)

1.4

 

 

 

IL

54.8

44.5

10.3

21

 

57.0

42.3

14.7

4.4

21

 

57.5

42.6

14.9

4.6

21

 

57.0

42.9

14.1

3.8

21

 

 

IN

39.3

59.9

(20.7)

 

 

40.0

59.2

(19.2)

1.5

 

 

40.5

59.6

(19.1)

1.6

 

 

41.3

58.8

(17.5)

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

49.2

49.9

(0.7)

 

 

50.7

48.4

2.3

3.0

7

 

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

7

 

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

7

 

 

KS

36.6

62.0

(25.4)

 

 

37.5

61.2

(23.7)

1.7

 

 

36.6

62.8

(26.2)

(0.8)

 

 

34.4

64.6

(30.2)

(4.8)

 

 

 

KY

39.7

59.6

(19.9)

 

 

39.6

59.6

(20.0)

(0.1)

 

 

40.6

58.6

(18.0)

1.9

 

 

40.9

58.3

(17.4)

2.5

 

 

 

LA

42.2

56.7

(14.5)

 

 

44.1

54.8

(10.7)

3.8

 

 

43.2

56.3

(13.1)

1.4

 

 

44.3

54.8

(10.5)

4.0

 

 

 

ME

53.6

44.6

9.0

4

 

55.5

42.7

12.8

3.8

4

 

54.3

44.6

9.7

0.7

4

 

53.9

44.4

9.5

0.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

55.9

42.9

13.0

10

 

60.0

38.9

21.1

8.1

10

 

59.4

39.7

19.7

6.7

10

 

56.6

42.5

14.1

1.1

10

 

 

MA

61.9

36.8

25.2

12

 

64.8

33.9

31.0

5.8

12

 

66.3

33.6

32.7

7.5

12

 

65.7

34.2

31.5

6.3

12

 

 

MI

51.2

47.8

3.4

17

 

54.4

44.7

9.7

6.3

17

 

51.8

47.3

4.5

1.1

17

 

51.9

47.1

4.8

1.4

17

 

 

MN

51.1

47.6

3.5

9

 

55.7

43.0

12.8

9.3

9

 

56.7

42.4

14.3

10.8

9

 

53.7

44.9

8.8

5.3

9

 

 

MS

40.2

59.0

(18.9)

 

 

45.8

53.4

(7.6)

11.3

 

 

46.2

53.2

(7.0)

11.9

 

 

43.4

56.0

(12.6)

6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

46.1

53.3

(7.2)

 

 

49.0

50.4

(1.4)

5.8

 

 

47.8

52.2

(4.4)

2.8

 

 

47.8

52.1

(4.3)

2.9

 

 

 

MT

38.6

59.1

(20.5)

 

 

37.7

60.0

(22.3)

(1.8)

 

 

37.8

59.9

(22.1)

(1.6)

 

 

37.2

60.0

(22.8)

(2.3)

 

 

 

NE

32.7

65.9

(33.2)

 

 

36.7

61.8

(25.1)

8.1

 

 

37.5

61.7

(24.2)

9.0

 

 

36.1

62.6

(26.5)

6.7

 

 

 

NV

47.9

50.5

(2.6)

 

 

52.9

45.4

7.5

10.1

5

 

49.3

47.9

1.4

4.0

5

 

48.9

48.3

0.6

3.2

5

 

 

NH

50.2

48.9

1.4

4

 

57.0

42.1

15.0

13.6

4

 

57.1

42.1

15.0

13.6

4

 

55.1

43.9

11.2

9.8

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

52.9

46.2

6.7

15

 

57.8

41.4

16.4

9.7

15

 

58.4

40.2

18.2

11.5

15

 

55.3

42.8

12.5

5.8

15

 

 

NM

49.0

49.8

(0.8)

 

 

52.9

45.9

7.0

7.8

5

 

51.7

47.5

4.2

5.0

5

 

50.8

48.0

2.8

3.6

5

 

 

NY

58.4

40.1

18.3

31

 

64.1

34.4

29.7

11.4

31

 

65.1

33.8

31.3

13.0

31

 

63.1

35.5

27.6

9.3

31

 

 

NC

43.6

56.0

(12.4)

 

 

49.2

50.4

(1.1)

11.3

 

 

48.2

51.8

(3.6)

8.8

 

 

48.1

51.9

(3.8)

8.6

 

 

 

ND

35.5

62.9

(27.4)

 

 

32.9

65.5

(32.6)

(5.2)

 

 

32.3

66.7

(34.4)

(7.0)

 

 

33.3

64.9

(31.6)

(4.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

48.7

50.8

(2.1)

 

 

54.2

45.4

8.8

10.9

20

 

53.2

46.7

6.5

8.6

20

 

51.7

48.3

3.4

5.5

20

 

 

OK

34.4

65.6

(31.1)

 

 

33.5

66.5

(33.0)

(1.9)

 

 

34.1

65.8

(31.7)

(0.6)

 

 

34.6

65.4

(30.8)

0.3

 

 

 

OR

51.3

47.2

4.2

7

 

53.0

47.0

6.0

1.8

7

 

53.0

47.0

6.0

1.8

7

 

50.3

47.9

2.4

(1.8)

7

 

 

PA

50.9

48.4

2.5

21

 

55.3

44.0

11.3

8.8

21

 

56.9

43.1

13.8

11.3

21

 

54.2

45.7

8.5

6.0

21

 

 

RI

59.4

38.7

20.8

4

 

61.8

36.3

25.5

4.7

4

 

62.4

36.3

26.1

5.3

4

 

63.2

34.9

28.3

7.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

40.9

58.0

(17.1)

 

 

45.9

53.0

(7.1)

10.0

 

 

46.4

52.4

(6.0)

11.1

 

 

45.1

53.8

(8.7)

8.4

 

 

 

SD

38.4

59.9

(21.5)

 

 

36.3

62.0

(25.7)

(4.2)

 

 

34.9

63.2

(28.3)

(6.8)

 

 

36.8

61.5

(24.7)

(3.2)

 

 

 

TN

42.5

56.8

(14.3)

 

 

42.8

56.5

(13.8)

0.5

 

 

40.3

58.5

(18.2)

(3.9)

 

 

41.3

57.6

(16.3)

(2.0)

 

 

 

TX

38.2

61.1

(22.9)

 

 

40.6

58.7

(18.1)

4.8

 

 

36.5

63.5

(27.0)

(4.1)

 

 

37.1

62.9

(25.8)

(2.9)

 

 

 

UT

26.0

71.5

(45.5)

 

 

29.2

68.3

(39.1)

6.4

 

 

29.9

69.2

(39.3)

6.2

 

 

29.9

68.3

(38.4)

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

58.9

38.8

20.1

3

 

66.4

31.3

35.1

15.0

3

 

67.0

30.4

36.6

16.5

3

 

64.5

32.8

31.7

11.6

3

 

 

VA

45.5

53.7

(8.2)

 

 

49.4

49.7

(0.3)

7.9

 

 

50.2

49.7

0.5

8.7

13

 

48.0

51.9

(3.9)

4.3

 

 

 

WA

52.8

45.6

7.2

11

 

57.0

41.4

15.6

8.4

11

 

54.9

44.2

10.7

3.5

11

 

54.1

44.6

9.5

2.3

11

 

 

WV

43.2

56.1

(12.9)

 

 

40.3

59.0

(18.7)

(5.8)

 

 

41.6

57.4

(15.8)

(2.9)

 

 

44.9

54.2

(9.3)

3.6

 

 

 

WI

49.7

49.3

0.4

10

 

52.0

47.0

5.1

4.7

10

 

52.5

46.8

5.7

5.3

10

 

49.6

49.2

0.4

0.0

10

 

 

WY

29.1

68.9

(39.8)

 

 

31.2

66.7

(35.5)

4.3

 

 

34.5

63.6

(29.1)

10.7

 

 

31.6

66.4

(34.8)

5.0