2004 Pre-election RV/LV Polling Trend Analysis

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

The national pre-election poll, after adjusting for voter turnout and undecided voters, reflects the True Vote.

RV polls include newly registered voters.

The final 15 RCP polls were likely voter polls (LV), a subset of RV polls.

Earlier polls were a mix of LV and RV.

In 2004, Democratic new voter registration dwarfed that of the GOP.

There were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000 (approximately 15 million were first-time voters.

Therefore, final RV polls had to be more accurate than LV polls.

Kerry led the pre-election polls in August, fell behind in September and rebounded in October.

Kerry led in the 31 RV polls by 50.1-46.8% after undecided voters were allocated.

Bush led in the 102 LV polls by 49.2-49.0%.

The majority of new voters (60%) were Democrats.

In 2000, 110.8 million were votes cast and 105.4m recorded.

Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes.

In 2004, 125.7 million were cast and 122.3m recorded.

Given 1.25% annual voter mortality, 5.5m Election 2000 voters died prior to 2004.

Assuming 98% turnout, 103.2 million Election 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Approximately 3.2 million of the 103.2m were returning Nader/other voters.

Therefore, there were approximately 22.5m (125.7- 103.2) new voters in 2004.

Kerry won 13.3m (59%) of 22.5m new voters, Bush had 8.8m (39%).

Kerry won 2.0m returning Nader/other voters; Bush had 0.4 million.

According to the National Exit Poll,

10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry

8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

Kerry had 91% (47.3 of 51.9m) of returning Gore voters and 10% (4.8m) of returning Bush voters.

Bush had 90% (42.8m of 47.5m) of returning Bush voters and 8% (4.2m) of returning Gore voters.

Kerry had 67.4m (53.6%) = 13.3 new+ 2.0 Nader + 47.3 Gore + 4.8 Bush

Bush had 56.2m (44.8%) = 8.8 new + 0.4 Nader + 4.2 Gore + 42.8 Bush

Kerry had 52.0% in the unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (WPE method).

The final 15 RCP national poll average had Bush leading by 49-47%.

The final Gallup poll was an identical 49-47 before it was adjusted for undecided voters.

Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Kerry, so the final Gallup poll had the race tied at 49-49%

Now let's compare the True Vote result to the pre-election national polls.

As per Gallup, the final 15 LV poll average, adjusted for undecided voters, was 49-49%.

But the LV polls did not sample newly registered voters.

The Election Model utilized 18 final polls, split equally between RV and LV.

After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Kerry, he led by 50.9-48.1%

Based on the 122.3m recorded vote, Kerry won by 62.3-58.8m

But the projection did not include the 4.0m uncounted votes.

Assuming that Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes, add 3.0m to his total and 1.0m to Bush.

Kerry's margin becomes 65.3-59.8m (51.9-47.6%).

That's within 0.1% of the unadjusted aggregate exit poll.

The pre-election LV polls, adjusted for new (RV) voters and undecided voters, matched the Election Model.

But the Election Model did not anticipate that

5-poll moving average projection trend

75% of undecided voters allocated to Kerry

Other 3rd party projection: 1%

Real Clear Politics - 133 National Polls Summary
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
						2-party			Projected		5-Poll MA
RCP	Date	Kerry	Bush	Other	Spread	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
133 Poll average	7/6 - 11/1	45.5%	47.4%	2.1%	2.0%	49.0%	51.0%	2.1%	49.3%	48.6%	49.5%	49.5%
102 LV	7/6 - 11/1	45.6%	48.1%	1.8%	2.5%	48.7%	51.3%	-2.6%	49.0%	49.2%	49.0%	49.1%
31 RV	7/6 - 9/26	45.0%	45.1%	3.1%	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	50.1%	46.8%	50.4%	46.4%
Diff		-0.6%	-3.0%	1.3%	-2.4%	1.3%	-1.3%	2.6%	1.1%	-2.4%	1.4%	-2.7%
Final 15 (all LV)	10/22-11/01	47.00%	49.01%	0.94%	2.01%	48.95%	51.05%	2.09%	49.29%	49.77%	49.47%	49.51%
Election Model -18 National Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
		Sample		Final	Poll	2-party projected			75% UVA	Projected	5-Poll Moving Average
Election Model	Date	Size	Poll	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Diff
18 National Polls	Average	1720	Type	47.28	46.89	51.65	48.35	3.31	50.90	48.10	51.25	47.75	3.50
Zogby	2-Nov	1200	LV	47	48	50.75	49.25	1.50	50.00	49.00	51.25	47.75	3.50
Harris	2-Nov	5508	LV	50	47	52.25	47.75	4.50	51.50	47.50	51.35	47.65	3.70
CBS	1-Nov	1125	RV	46	47	51.25	48.75	2.50	50.50	48.50	51.25	47.75	3.50
TIPP	1-Nov	1284	LV	44	45	52.25	47.75	4.50	51.50	47.50	51.15	47.85	3.30
Econ	1-Nov	2903	RV	49	45	53.50	46.50	7.00	52.75	46.25	51.20	47.80	3.40
Marist	1-Nov	1166	LV	49	48	51.25	48.75	2.50	50.50	48.50	50.85	48.15	2.70
ABC	31-Oct	3511	RV	48	47	51.75	48.25	3.50	51.00	48.00	51.25	47.75	3.50
NBC	31-Oct	1014	LV	47	48	50.75	49.25	1.50	50.00	49.00	51.45	47.55	3.90
Gallup	31-Oct	1866	RV	48	46	52.50	47.50	5.00	51.75	47.25	51.55	47.45	4.10
Dem Corp	31-Oct	1018	LV	48	47	51.75	48.25	3.50	51.00	48.00	51.10	47.90	3.20
FOX	31-Oct	1400	RV	48	45	53.25	46.75	6.50	52.50	46.50	51.05	47.95	3.10
Pew	30-Oct	2408	RV	46	45	52.75	47.25	5.50	52.00	47.00	50.75	48.25	2.50
ARG	30-Oct	1258	LV	49	48	51.25	48.75	2.50	50.50	48.50	49.85	49.15	0.70
Nwk	29-Oct	1005	RV	45	48	50.25	49.75	0.50	49.50	49.50	50.15	48.85	1.30
ICR	26-Oct	817	RV	44	46	51.50	48.50	3.00	50.75	48.25	na	na	na
LAT	24-Oct	1698	RV	48	47	51.75	48.25	3.50	51.00	48.00	na	na	na
Time	21-Oct	803	LV	46	51	48.25	51.75	(3.50)	47.50	51.50	na	na	na
AP	20-Oct	976	LV	49	46	52.75	47.25	5.50	52.00	47.00	na	na	na

RCP Final 15 LV Polls
		Poll				2-party			Projected		5-poll MA
	Date	Kerry	Bush	Other	Spread	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
Average	10/22-11/01	47.0%	49.0%	0.9%	2.0%	49.0%	51.0%	2.1%	49.3%	49.8%	49.5%	49.5%
ICR (741)	10/22 - 10/26	45%	48%	2%	3%	48.4%	51.6%	3.2%	48.8%	49.3%	48.6%	50.0%
GW/Battleground (1000)	10/25 - 10/28	46%	51%	0%	5%	47.4%	52.6%	5.2%	48.3%	51.8%	48.9%	50.1%
Newsweek (882)	10/27 - 10/29	44%	50%	1%	6%	46.8%	53.2%	6.4%	47.8%	51.3%	48.5%	50.5%
Pew Research (1925)	10/27 - 10/30	48%	51%	1%	3%	48.5%	51.5%	3.0%	48.0%	51.0%	48.1%	51.0%
CBS/NY Times (643)	10/28 - 10/30	46%	49%	1%	3%	48.4%	51.6%	3.2%	49.0%	50.0%	48.4%	50.7%
ARG (1258)	10/28 - 10/30	48%	48%	1%	0%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	50.3%	48.8%	48.7%	50.6%
ABC/Wash Post (2904)**	10/28 - 10/31	48%	49%	0%	1%	49.5%	50.5%	1.0%	50.3%	49.8%	49.1%	50.2%
NBC/WSJ (1014)	10/29 - 10/31	47%	48%	1%	1%	49.5%	50.5%	1.1%	50.0%	49.0%	49.5%	49.7%
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573)*	10/29 - 10/31	49%	49%	1%	0%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	49.8%	49.3%	49.9%	49.4%
Reuters/Zogby (1208)	10/29 - 10/31	47%	48%	1%	1%	49.5%	50.5%	1.1%	50.0%	49.0%	50.1%	49.2%
FOX News (1200)	10/30 - 10/31	48%	46%	1%	-2%	51.1%	48.9%	-2.1%	51.8%	47.3%	50.4%	48.9%
Harris (1509(	10/29 - 11/1	48%	49%	2%	1%	49.5%	50.5%	1.0%	48.8%	49.3%	50.1%	48.8%
CBS News (939)	10/29 - 11/1	47%	49%	1%	2%	49.0%	51.0%	2.1%	49.3%	49.8%	49.9%	48.9%
TIPP (1041 LV	10/30 - 11/1	48%	50%	1%	2%	48.9%	51.1%	2.1%	48.6%	50.3%	49.7%	49.1%
GW/Battleground (1000)	10/31 - 11/1	46%	50%	0%	4%	47.9%	52.1%	4.2%	49.0%	51.0%	49.5%	49.5%
RCP Monthy Average		Poll				2-party			Projected		5-poll MA
	Date	Kerry	Bush	Other	Spread	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	Average	45.9%	47.3%	2.1%	1.4%	49.3%	50.7%	0.7%	49.4%	48.5%	49.6%	48.2%
	July	46.1%	44.1%	3.4%	-2.0%	51.1%	48.9%	2.2%	50.9%	45.7%	50.9%	45.7%
	Aug	46.4%	45.3%	2.8%	-1.1%	50.6%	49.4%	1.3%	50.6%	46.6%	50.7%	46.5%
	Sep	43.4%	49.2%	2.0%	5.8%	46.9%	53.1%	-4.6%	47.5%	50.5%	47.6%	50.3%
	Oct	46.2%	48.4%	1.4%	2.2%	48.8%	51.2%	2.4%	49.2%	49.4%	49.1%	49.6%
	Nov	47.3%	49.5%	1.0%	2.3%	48.8%	51.2%	2.4%	48.9%	50.1%	49.8%	49.1%

NBC News (504 RV)	7/6	49%	41%	4%	-8%	54.4%	45.6%	8.9%	RV	53.5%	42.5%	53.5%	42.5%
AP/Ipsos (804 RV)	7/5-7/7	45%	49%	3%	4%	47.9%	52.1%	-4.3%	RV	47.3%	49.8%	50.4%	46.1%
Zogby (1008 LV)	7/6-7/7	47%	45%	2%	-2%	51.1%	48.9%	2.2%	LV	51.5%	46.5%	50.8%	46.3%
Time (774 LV)	7/6-7/8	47%	45%	4%	-2%	51.1%	48.9%	2.2%	LV	50.0%	46.0%	50.6%	46.2%
Newsweek (1,001 RV)	7/8-7/9	47%	44%	3%	-3%	51.6%	48.4%	3.3%	RV	51.5%	45.5%	50.8%	46.1%
IBD/TIPP (800 RV)	7/6-7/10	47%	43%	4%	-4%	52.2%	47.8%	4.4%	RV	51.5%	44.5%	50.4%	46.5%
CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV)	7/8-7/11	50%	45%	2%	-5%	52.6%	47.4%	5.3%	LV	52.3%	45.8%	51.4%	45.7%
Wash Post/ABC (721 RV)	7/8-7/11	46%	46%	4%	0%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	RV	49.0%	47.0%	50.9%	45.8%
Dem Corps** (1,010 LV)	7/10-7/13	48%	45%	4%	-3%	51.6%	48.4%	3.2%	LV	50.3%	45.8%	50.9%	45.7%
CBS/NYT (823 RV)	7/11-7/15	45%	42%	5%	-3%	51.7%	48.3%	3.4%	RV	51.0%	44.0%	50.8%	45.4%
Marist (938 RV)	7/12-7/15	45%	44%	2%	-1%	50.6%	49.4%	1.1%	RV	51.8%	46.3%	50.9%	45.8%
IBD/TIPP (842 RV)	7/12-7/17	42%	40%	4%	-2%	51.2%	48.8%	2.4%	RV	52.5%	43.5%	50.9%	45.3%
Pew (1,568 RV)	7/8-7/18	46%	44%	3%	-2%	51.1%	48.9%	2.2%	RV	51.3%	45.8%	51.4%	45.1%
LA Times (1,529 RV)	7/17-7/21	46%	44%	3%	-2%	51.1%	48.9%	2.2%	RV	51.3%	45.8%	51.6%	45.1%
CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV)	7/19-7/21	47%	46%	4%	-1%	50.5%	49.5%	1.1%	LV	49.3%	46.8%	51.2%	45.6%
NBC/WSJ (813 RV)	7/19-7/21	45%	47%	2%	2%	48.9%	51.1%	-2.2%	RV	49.5%	48.5%	50.8%	46.1%
Fox News (767 LV)	7/20-7/21	44%	43%	3%	-1%	50.6%	49.4%	1.1%	LV	51.5%	45.5%	50.6%	46.5%
Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV)	7/18-7/22	44%	43%	4%	-1%	50.6%	49.4%	1.1%	RV	50.8%	45.3%	50.5%	46.4%
Time/SRBI (1000 RV)	7/20-7/22	46%	43%	5%	-3%	51.7%	48.3%	3.4%	RV	50.5%	44.5%	50.3%	46.1%
IBD/TIPP (883 RV)	7/19-7/24	44%	42%	3%	-2%	51.2%	48.8%	2.3%	RV	52.3%	44.8%	50.9%	45.7%
ABC News/WP (909 RV)	7/22-7/25	46%	48%	3%	2%	48.9%	51.1%	-2.1%	RV	48.3%	48.8%	50.7%	45.8%
Newsweek (1,010 RV)	7/29-7/30	49%	42%	3%	-7%	53.8%	46.2%	7.7%	RV	53.5%	43.5%	51.1%	45.4%
ARG (776 RV)	7/30-8/1	49%	45%	2%	-4%	52.1%	47.9%	4.3%	RV	52.0%	46.0%	51.3%	45.5%
ABC News/WP (LV)	7/30-8/1	49%	47%	2%	-2%	51.0%	49.0%	2.1%	LV	50.5%	47.5%	51.3%	46.1%
CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)	7/30-8/1	45%	51%	2%	6%	46.9%	53.1%	-6.3%	LV	46.5%	51.5%	50.2%	47.5%
CBS News (991 RV)	7/31-8/1	48%	43%	3%	-5%	52.7%	47.3%	5.5%	RV	52.5%	44.5%	51.0%	46.6%
Marist (573 LV)	7/30-8/2	47%	47%	1%	0%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	LV	50.8%	48.3%	50.5%	47.6%
Fox News (775 LV)	8/3 - 8/4	47%	43%	2%	-4%	52.2%	47.8%	4.4%	LV	53.0%	45.0%	50.7%	47.4%
IBD/TIPP (841 RV)	8/2 - 8/5	45%	42%	5%	-3%	51.7%