The 2006 Midterms

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

Just prior to the 2006 Midterms, three articles were written by the author with Michael Collins (autorank) and published by Alistair Thompson of SCOOP. The purpose was to quantify the risk of fraud in the Midterms. The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and Senate and indicated the House and Senate races where fraud was most likely to occur. Subsequently, documented evidence of voting anomalies confirmed that the landslide was denied and millions of votes were either uncounted or switched.

 

The election fraud model projected that the Democrats would win at least 240 House seats, but lose 10-15 to fraud. It correctly forecast that they would gain control of the Senate by winning six GOP-held seats. The Democratic Tsunami overcame the fraud in the House and Senate.

 

There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies in the 2006 midterms were caused by uncounted and switched votes. Evidence of fraud was once again found in the Final 2006 National Exit Poll. It was forced to match the recorded vote count with an implausible returning 2004 voter mix. The 2006 Final “Voted in 2004” returning voter mix was manipulated just like the 2004 “ Voted in 2000” mix.

 

In 2006, the returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was transformed from 47 / 45% at the 7pm timeline to 49/ 43% in the Final NEP. This replicated the 2004 NEP in which the returning Bush/Gore mix was changed from 41/39% at 12:22am to an impossible 43/ 37%, switching the Kerry win to Bush. The net effect of the change in 2006 was to cut the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. Applying a plausible returning voter mix to the 7pm NEP, the Democratic landslide margin grows to 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120-Generic poll trend projection.

 

This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match the vote count, then all other demographics must be bogus as well.

 

Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the pre-Bush world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should have won.

 

Mark Lindeman, a poster on the Democratic Underground, has tried to debunk the work of  election analysts who have argued that pre-election and unadjusted exit poll discrepancies are  indicators of  fraud.  Referring to the final Pew 2006 Generic poll (47 Dem / 43% Rep), Mark said on the Democratic Underground: “personally, I think Pew was probably not far off”.  That was a very interesting observation, considering that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election polls andhe chose Pew, despite the fact that the margin was 10% below the average regression trend line.

 

The Generic poll model projected a 56-42% Democratic landslide with a vote share which steadily increased over the 14 month period from Sept. 2005 to Election Day. The GOP trend line was flat. The 120-poll linear time series regression graph  shows that the trend line closely matched both the 7:0pm National Exit poll and the Wikipedia vote count.

 

The Final 2006 National Exit poll was matched to the recorded, fraudulent vote count, with more than the usual percentage of uncounted votes and switched votes. Literally thousands of reported machine “glitches” were documented nationwide; 18,000 missing votes in FL-13 caused the Democrat to lose. Virtually all documented vote switches were Democratic to Republican. As Casey Stengel used to say: you can look it up.

 

To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.

 

The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed by the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.

 

In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count. The True Vote is given by:

 

TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched

 

Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll

 

National Exit Poll

Source      Dem Rep Other

CNN-7pm     55.2% 43.4% 1.5%

CNN-Final   52.2% 45.9% 2.5%

NYT         53.1% 44.9% 2.0%

 

Reported National Vote

Wikipedia   57.7% 41.8% 0.5%

CBS- Nat    52.7% 45.1% 2.2%

CBS-State   51.3% 46.4% 2.3%

 

 

120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend

Dem = 46.98 + .0419x

Rep = 38.06 + .0047x        

 

Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:

          Trend + UVA = Projection

Dem =     52.01 + 4.42   =   56.43%

Rep =     38.62 + 2.95   =   41.57%

 

 

 

Wikipedia Summary of the November 7, 2006 United States House of Representatives election results

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006

 

       Party Seats        Popular Vote

      2004   2006  Chg

Dem   202    233   +31   39,267,916   57.7%    +11.1%

Rep   232    202   -30   28,464,092   41.8%     –7.4%

Ind    1       0    -1       669,7707    0.1%     +0.5%

Other  0       0     0      255,876    0.4%     –3.2%

 

Total 435    435     0   68,057,591    100%         

 

Democratic Projection Probabilities

Proj   Freq    Prob

54.0    120     100.0

54.5    119     99.2

55.0    116     96.7

55.5    105     87.5

56.0    92      76.7

56.5    76      63.3

57.0    47      39.2

57.5    31      25.8

58.0    20      16.7

58.5    5       4.2

59.0    1       0.8

 

Note: 76.7% probability that the vote share would exceed 56%

                             

 

National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)

 

VOTED 2004

          --------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 1pm Final --------- ----- Truee Generic Vote -----      p;&nnbsp;          

 

        MIX    Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep        Other

Kerry   45%     93%     6%      1%      43%     92%     7%      1%      49%     93%     6%        1%

Bush    47%     17%     82%     1%      49%     15%     83%     2%      46%     17%     82%        1%

Other   4%      67%     23%     10%     4%      66%     23%     11%     1%      67%     23%        10%

DNV     4%      67%     30%     3%      4%      66%     32%     2%      4%      67%     30%        3%

 

TOTAL   100%    55.2%  43.4%   1.4%    100%    52.2%   45.9%   1.9%    100%    56.7%   42.1%        1.2%

 

 

Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights

 

National Exit Poll (7pm)

Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%                                                           

                        7pm

Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%

Bush    49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%     43%     42%     41%

Dem     53.7%   54.4%   55.2%   56.0%   56.7%   57.5%   58.2%   59.0%   59.8%

 

Final National Exit Poll (1pm)

Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%                                                           

        1pm   

Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%

Bush    49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%     43%     42%     41%

Dem     52.2%   53.0%   53.7%   54.5%   55.3%   56.0%   56.8%   57.6%   58.4%

 

True Vote 

Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%

                                                        True

Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%

Bush    52%     51%     50%     49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%

Dem     52.2%   52.9%   53.7%   54.5%   55.2%   56.0%   56.7%   57.5%   58.3%

 

 

2006 Uncounted and Switched Votes

 

The goal of this model was to determine the percentage of votes which needed to be switched from the Democrats to the Republicans in order to match the Nov. 9 CBS News reported 52.7% Democratic vote. The Democratic 120 Generic poll trend forecast 56.4%; the initial Wikipedia vote count was 57.7D-41.8R. The model assumes that the Wikipedia numbers represented the TRUE national vote. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised

voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.

 

Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted. Approximately 75% of them are Democratic. The racial mix was used to approximate the number of uncounted votes in each state, assuming that 8% of non-whites and 2% of white votes were uncounted. The base case analysis assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. To match the Wikipedia vote share, we assume that 3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted.  Almost one in 12 Democratic votes must have been switched to the Republicans.

 

To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote in each demographic category, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the Wikipedia vote. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.

 

The 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend that was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.

 

Assuming a 7.0% switch-vote rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%, a close match to the Generic 120-Poll trend line projection.  At an 8.5% switch rate the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching the Wikipedia recorded vote share.

 

Model Assumptions

Switched:  7.00% Dem to Rep

Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast

 

Uncounted Vote Shares

Race Share Reported    Pct     Unctd   Total    Pct     Unctd                 

White   2.0%    62542   81.7%   1276    63819   80.7%   1.61%                 

Other   8.0%    14043   18.3%   1221    15264   19.3%   1.54%                 

Total   3.16%   76585   100%    2497    79082   100%    3.16%                 

 

 

Base Case Summary                                            Switched   TRUE Vote

Dem     75%     40331   52.66%  1873    42204   53.37%  2.45%   2823   45027   56.94%

Rep     23%     34564   45.13%   574    35138   44.43%  0.75%   -2823  32315   40.86%

Other    2%      1690    2.21%    50    1740     2.20%  2.87%    0      1740    2.20%

Total   3.16%   76585   100.0%  2497    79082   100.0%  3.16%    0     79082   100.0%

 

Probability of Vote Discrepancy

MoE     1.50%                                                               

Prob    = NORMDIST (0.5266, 0.5694, 0.015/1.96, TRUE)

1 in    86,082,782    

 

Sensitivity Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched-vote rate

Switch  Dem%   Probability: 1 in

5.0%    56.17% 444,121

6.0%    56.43% 2,308,702 (matches 120 Generic poll trend)

6.5%    56.68% 13,359,311

7.0%    56.94% 86,082,782 (base case)

7.5%    57.19% 617,885,835

8.0%    57.45% 4,941,793,389

8.5%    57.70% 43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)

 

 

Generic Poll Projection Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average

 

This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:

1) Allocating undecided voters (UVA) to the final 120-poll linear trend.

2) Allocating the UVA to the average of the final 10 Generic polls.

 

The 120-poll trend and 10-poll projections matched to within .05%.

 

The reported Democratic vote share was

1) 51.3% based on CBS state totals (11/09).

2) 52.7% based on CBS national totals.

3) 57.7% based on Wikipedia national totals.

4) 52.6% based on the CNN Final National Exit Poll (11/08).

 

Key model results:

Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,

1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share

2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share

 

The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies were due to chance.

 

120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend:

Dem = 46.98 + .0419x

GOP = 38.06 + .0047x  

 

Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:

        Trend + UVA = Projection

Dem =   52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%

Rep =   38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%

 

________________________________________________

 

Projected Democratic Vote Share based on the Final 10-poll Average 

 

Assumption: 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) allocated to Democrats

 

.............. Dem     GOP     Margin 

Avg     Date    52.0    38.7   13.3

                      

Harris  1023    47      33     14

AP      1030    56      37     19

CBS     1101    52      33     19

Nwk     1103    54      38     16

TIME    1103    55      40     15

 

Pew*    1104    47      43      4

ABC*    1104    51      45      6

USA*    1106    51      44      7

CNN     1106    58      38     20

FOX     1106    49      36     13

 

Average         52.0%   38.7% 13.3%  

UVA             4.4%    2.9%   0.9%    

Projection     56.4%   41.6%   14.8%

CBS State Vote 51.3%   46.4%    4.9%  

Discrepancy    -5.1%    4.8%   -9.9%   

 

3(*) outliers                        

Average        49.67   44.00   5.67

2-party        53.02   46.98  

 

7 polls                       

Average        53.00   36.43   16.57

2-party        59.27   40.73  

 

10 Polls

Average        52.00   38.70   13.30

2-party        57.33   42.67  

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

Probability of discrepancy between the aggregate CBS-reported state vote and the 10-poll projection for

various margins of error (MoE) and undecided voter allocation (UVA) assumptions.

 

10 Polls      52.00%

60% UVA       4.38%

Projected     56.38%

 

UVA       50%     56.1%   60%   65%   70%     75%

Proj.     55.7%   56.1% 56.4%   56.8% 57.2%   57.5% Democratic projection

Margin    13.3%   14.2% 14.8%   15.5% 16.2%   17.0%

Deviation 4.4%    4.8%   5.1%   5.5%   5.8%   6.2%

                                             

MoE     Probability of Vote Discrepancy

                        1 in

1.25%   219b    36t     1286t    nc     nc      nc

1.50%   151m    5.4b    62b     1.8t    63t     3002t

1.75%   1.8m    25m     157m    1.9b    26b     428b

2.00%   99k     766k    3m      21m     161m    1.4b

 

2.25%   13k     68k     207k    950k    4.8m    27m

2.50%   3k      12k     29k     102k    381k    1.5m

2.75%   1k      3.2k    6.8k    19k     58k     186k

3.00%   446     1.2k    2.2k    5.3k    14k     37k

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis II

Probability of discrepancy between 120 Generic Poll forecast and the Final NEP for various MoE assumptions

 

Democratic vote share:

Exit poll: 52.70%     

Generics:  56.43%     

Deviation:  3.73%     

 

MoE     Probability: 1 in

1.00%   7,474,854,153,312

1.25%   402,249,154

1.50%   1,825,026

1.75%   67,847

 

2.00%   7,787

2.25%   1,728

2.50%   579

2.75%   255

3.00%   135

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis III

Probability of discrepancy between the Wikipedia vote count and the National Exit Poll for various MoE assumptions

 

Democratic share:

Exit poll: 52.7%      

Wikipedia: 57.7%      

Deviation:  5.0%      

 

MoE     Probability: 1 in

1.00%   nc

1.25%   450,359,962,737,050

1.50%   30,938,221,975

1.75%   93,056,001

 

2.00%   2,083,900

2.25%   150,566

2.50%   22,577

2.75%   5,467

3.00%   1,838

 

 

120 Pre-election Generic Polls

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

        

                                                              5-poll Moving Avg   Projection              

Poll     Survey       Dates        DEM      GOP      Other    Diff     DemMA    GOPMA    Dem      GOP         Diff     DiffMA

Number        Average     All      49.5     38.3     12.1     11.2     49.5     38.3     56.8     43.2         13.6     13.6

 

2005                                                                                           

 

1          Newsweek RV    905      50       38       12       12       50.0     38.0     57.2     42.8         14.4     14.4

2          Pew RV         911      52       40       8        12       51.0     39.0     57.0     43.0         14.0     14.2

3          DemCorp LV     921      48       39       13       9        50.0     39.0     56.6     43.4         13.2     13.9

4          Newsweek RV    930      47       42       11       5        49.3     39.8     55.9     44.2         11.7     13.3

5          DemCorp LV     1010     46       41       14       5        48.6     40.0     55.4     44.6         10.9     12.8

 

6          GWU LV         1012     47       41       13       6        48.0     40.6     54.8     45.2         9.7      11.9

7          Hotline RV     1016     40       31       29       9        45.6     38.8     55.0     45.0         9.9      11.1

8          DemCorp LV     1023     48       39       12       9        45.6     38.8     55.0     45.0         9.9      10.4

9          Gallup RV      1023     50       43       7        7        46.2     39.0     55.1     44.9         10.2     10.1

10         ABC/WP RV      1102     52       37       12       15       47.4     38.2     56.0     44.0         12.1     10.4

 

11         DemCorp LV     1106     48       40       12       8        47.6     38.0     56.2     43.8         12.5     10.9

12         Newsweek RV    1105     53       36       11       17       50.2     39.0     56.7     43.3         13.4     11.6

13         Hotline RV     1115     41       35       24       6        48.8     38.2     56.6     43.4         13.2     12.3

14         DemCorp LV     1120     48       41       11       7        48.4     37.8     56.7     43.3         13.4     12.9

15         Time RV        1201     48       36       15       12       47.6     37.6     56.5     43.5         13.0     13.1

 

16         DemCorp LV     1204     49       39       12       10       47.8     37.4     56.7     43.3         13.4     13.2

17         CBS/NYT RV     1206     42       33       25       9        45.6     36.8     56.2     43.8         12.3     13.0

18         DemCorp LV     1212     49       41       9        8        47.2     38.0     56.1     43.9         12.2     12.8

19         Hotline RV     1213     43       33       25       10       46.2     36.4     56.6     43.4         13.3     12.8

20         NPR LV         1218     45       37       17       8        45.6     36.6     56.3     43.7         12.6     12.7

21         ABC/WP RV      1218     51       41       9        10       46.0     37.0     56.2     43.8         12.4     12.5

 

2006

 

22         Gallup RV      108      49       43       8        6        47.4     39.0     55.6     44.4         11.1     12.3

23         CBS/NYT RV     125      43       34       23       9        46.2     37.6     55.9     44.1         11.8     12.2

24         Dem Corp LV    125      49       41       10       8        47.4     39.2     55.4     44.6         10.9     11.8

25         ABC/WP RV      126      54       38       9        16       49.2     39.4     56.0     44.0         12.1     11.7

 

26         Pew RV         205      50       41       9        9        49.0     39.4     56.0     44.0         11.9     11.6

27         Gallup RV      212      50       43       8        7        49.2     39.4     56.0     44.0         12.1     11.8

28         GWU LV         215      46       41       14       5        49.8     40.8     55.4     44.6         10.9     11.6

29         Hotline RV     219      46       31       23       15       49.2     38.8     56.4     43.6         12.8     12.0

30         DemCorp LV     227      48       40       12       8        48.0     39.2     55.7     44.3         11.4     11.8

 

31         Gallup RV      301      53       39       7        14       48.6     38.8     56.2     43.8         12.3     11.9

32         FOX LV         301      48       34       18       14       48.2     37.0     57.1     42.9         14.2     12.3

33         Gallup RV      312      55       39       7        16       50.0     36.6     58.0     42.0         16.1     13.3

34         NPR LV         314      52       37       11       15       51.2     37.8     57.8     42.2         15.6     13.9

35         Newsweek RV    317      50       39       11       11       51.6     37.6     58.1     41.9         16.2     14.9

 

36         Time RV        323      50       41       9        9        51.0     38.0     57.6     42.4         15.2     15.4

37         CBS RV         409      44       34       22       10       50.2     38.0     57.3     42.7         14.6     15.5

38         ABC/WP RV      409      55       40       5        15       50.2     38.2     57.2     42.8         14.3     15.2

39         Gallup RV      409      52       42       6        10       50.2     39.2     56.6     43.4         13.1     14.7

40         Pew RV          416     51       41       8        10       50.4     39.6     56.4     43.6         12.8     14.0

 

41         CNN RV          423     50       40       9        10       50.4     39.4     56.5     43.5         13.0     13.6

42         Cook            430     44       32       24       12       50.4     39.0     56.8     43.2         13.5     13.4

43         Gallup RV       430     54       39       7        15       50.2     38.8     56.8     43.2         13.6     13.2

44         FOX LV          503     41       38       21       3        48.0     38.0     56.4     43.6         12.8     13.2

45         CNN RV          507     52       38       10       14       48.2     37.4     56.8     43.2         13.7     13.3

 

46         CBS/NYT RV     508      44       33       23       11       47.0     36.0     57.2     42.8         14.4     13.6

47         Newsweek RV    512      50       39       11       11       48.2     37.4     56.8     43.2         13.7     13.6

48         ABC/WP RV      515      52       40       9        12       47.8     37.6     56.6     43.4         13.1     13.5

49         Fabrizio LV    517      39       36       25       3        47.4     37.2     56.6     43.4         13.3     13.6

50         Hotline RV     521      42       36       22       6        45.4     36.8     56.1     43.9         12.2     13.3

 

51         Gallup RV      604      51       42       7        9        46.8     38.6     55.6     44.4         11.1     12.7

52         Gallup RV      611      51       39       10       12       47.0     38.6     55.6     44.4         11.3     12.2

53         FOX LV         614      46       33       20       13       45.8     37.2     56.0     44.0         12.0     12.0

54         CNN RV         615      45       38       16       7        47.0     37.6     56.2     43.8         12.5     11.8

55         Pew RV         619      51       39       10       12       48.8     38.2     56.6     43.4         13.2     12.0

 

56         Hotline RV     625      41       36       24       5        46.8     37.0     56.5     43.5         13.0     12.4

57         ABC/WP RV      625      52       39       9        13       47.0     37.0     56.6     43.4         13.2     12.8

58         Gallup RV      625      54       38       7        16       48.6     38.0     56.6     43.4         13.3     13.0

59         TIME LV        629      47       35       18       12       49.0     37.4     57.2     42.8         14.3     13.4

60         Gallup RV      709      51       41       9        10       49.0     37.8     56.9     43.1         13.8     13.5

 

61         AP-Ipsos RV    712      51       40       9        11       51.0     38.6     57.2     42.8         14.5     13.8

62         FOX LV         712      42       34       25       8        49.0     37.6     57.0     43.0         14.1     14.0

63         Hotline RV     723      48       32       20       16       47.8     36.4     57.3     42.7         14.6     14.3

64         CBS/NYT RV     725      45       35       20       10       47.4     36.4     57.1     42.9         14.2     14.2

65         Gallup RV      770      51       40       8        11       47.4     36.2     57.2     42.8         14.5     14.4

 

66         CNN RV         803      53       40       7        13       47.8     36.2     57.4     42.6         14.8     14.4

67         ABC/WP RV      806      52       39       8        13       49.8     37.2     57.6     42.4         15.2     14.7

68         AP-Ipsos RV    809      55       37       8        18       51.2     38.2     57.6     42.4         15.1     14.8

69         FOX LV         809      48       30       22       18       51.8     37.2     58.4     41.6         16.8     15.3

70         Gallup RV      810      50       41       9        9        51.6     37.4     58.2     41.8         16.4     15.7

 

71         Newsweek RV    811      51       39       10       12       51.2     37.2     58.2     41.8         16.3     16.0

72         Pew RV         813      50       41       9        9        50.8     37.6     57.8     42.2         15.5     16.0

73         Hotline RV     820      40       33       27       7        47.8     36.8     57.0     43.0         14.1     15.8

74         Gallup RV      820      47       45       7        2        47.6     39.8     55.2     44.8         10.3     14.5

75         CNN RV         820      52       43       6        9        48.0     40.2     55.1     44.9         10.2     13.3

 

76         CBS/NYT RV     821      47       32       21       15       47.2     38.8     55.6     44.4         11.2     12.3

77         TIME LV        824      51       40       9        11       47.4     38.6     55.8     44.2         11.6     11.5

78         Newsweek RV    825      50       38       12       12       49.4     39.6     56.0     44.0         12.0     11.1

79         FOX LV         830      48       32       21       16       49.6     37.0     57.6     42.4         15.3     12.0

80         CNN LV         902      53       43       4        10       49.8     37.0     57.7     42.3         15.4     13.1

 

81         ABC RV         907      50       42       9        8        50.4     39.0     56.8     43.2         13.5     13.6

82         Pew RV         910      50       39       11       11       50.2     38.8     56.8     43.2         13.6     14.0

83         Gallup RV      910      53       41       7        12       50.8     39.4     56.7     43.3         13.4     14.2

84         FOX LV         913      41       38       21       3        49.4     40.6     55.4     44.6         10.8     13.3

85         Gallup LV      917      48       48       4        0        48.4     41.6     54.4     45.6         8.8      12.0

 

86         CBS/NYT RV     919      50       35       15       15       48.4     40.2     55.2     44.8         10.5     11.4

87         CNN LV         924      55       42       3        13       49.4     40.8     55.3     44.7         10.6     10.8

88         FOX LV         927      49       38       14       11       48.6     40.2     55.3     44.7         10.6     10.3

89         Hotline RV     927      43       33       24       10       49.0     39.2     56.1     43.9         12.2     10.5

90         Zogby LV       928      42       33       25       9        47.8     36.2     57.4     42.6         14.8     11.7

 

91         CNN LV         1002     53       42       5        11       48.4     37.6     56.8     43.2         13.6     12.4

92         AP-Ipsos RV    1004     51       38       11       13       47.6     36.8     57.0     43.0         13.9     13.0

93         Pew RV         1004     51       41       8        10       48.0     37.4     56.8     43.2         13.5     13.6

94         TIME LV        1005     54       39       7        15       50.2     38.6     56.9     43.1         13.8     13.9

95         Newsweek RV    1006     51       39       7        12       52.0     39.8     56.9     43.1         13.8     13.7

 

96         ABC RV         1008     54       41       5        13       52.2     39.6     57.1     42.9         14.2     13.9

97         CNN LV         1008     58       37       5        21       53.6     39.4     57.8     42.2         15.6     14.2

98         Gallup LV      1008     59       36       4        23       55.2     38.4     59.0     41.0         18.1     15.1

99         Harris LV      1009     49       36       15       13       54.2     37.8     59.0     41.0         18.0     16.0

100        FOX LV         1011     50       41       9        9        54.0     38.2     58.7     41.3         17.4     16.7

 

101        CNN LV         1015     56       40       4        16       54.4     38.0     59.0     41.0         17.9     17.4

102        NBC RV         1016     52       37       11       15       53.2     38.0     58.5     41.5         17.0     17.7

103        Newsweek LV    1021     55       37       8        18       52.4     38.2     58.0     42.0         16.1     17.3

104        Gallup LV      1023     54       41       5        13       53.4     39.2     57.8     42.2         15.7     16.8

105        ABC RV         1023     54       41       5        13       54.2     39.2     58.2     41.8         16.3     16.6

 

106        CNN LV         1022     57       40       3        17       54.4     39.2     58.2     41.8         16.5     16.3

107        Hotline RV     1023     52       34       13       18       54.4     38.6     58.6     41.4         17.2     16.4

108        Zogby LV       1025     44       33       23       11       52.2     37.8     58.2     41.8         16.4     16.4

109        FOX LV         1025     49       38       13       11       51.2     37.2     58.2     41.8         16.3     16.5

110        Newsweek LV    1027     53       39       8        14       51.0     36.8     58.3     41.7         16.6     16.6

 

111        CNN LV         1029     53       42       5        11       50.2     37.2     57.8     42.2         15.5     16.4

112        NBC LV         1030     52       37       11       15       50.2     37.8     57.4     42.6         14.8     15.9

113        CBS/NYT LV     1101     52       33       15       19       51.8     37.8     58.0     42.0         16.1     15.9

114        Newsweek LV    1103     54       38       8        16       52.8     37.8     58.4     41.6         16.9     16.0

115        TIME LV        1103     55       40       5        15       53.2     38.0     58.5     41.5         17.0     16.0

 

116        Pew LV         1104     47       43       10       4        52.0     38.2     57.9     42.1         15.8     16.1

117        ABC LV         1104     51       45       4        6        51.8     39.8     56.8     43.2         13.7     15.9

118       USA/Gallup LV   1106     51       44       4        7        51.6     42.0     55.4     44.6         10.9     14.8

119        CNN LV         1106     58       38       4        20       52.4     42.0     55.8     44.2         11.5     13.8

120        FOX LV         1106     49       36       15       13       51.2     41.2     55.8     44.2         11.5     12.7

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

National Exit Poll Timeline Summary  

CNN.com - Elections 2006                                                                                                                                                             

 

            10,207 Respondents                      13,251 Respondents

               7:07pm 11/07                            1:00pm 11/08                           Generic Pre-election Trend       

Categ         Dem      Rep     Other             Dem     Rep      Other    Margin          Dem       Rep     Other    Margin

                         

Vote04       55.20%   43.36%   1.44%            52.19%   45.88%   1.93%    6.31%           57.50%    41.33%   1.17%    16.17%

Gender       55.04%   43.47%   1.49%            52.55%   44.96%   2.49%    7.59%           58.04%    40.47%   1.49%    17.57%

Race/Gender  54.81%   43.71%   1.48%            52.62%   45.51%   1.88%    7.11%           57.77%    40.23%   0.00%    17.54%

Race         55.10%   43.11%   1.79%            53.34%   44.85%   1.81%    8.49%           57.88%    41.31%   1.81%    16.57%

Age          54.89%   43.44%   1.67%            52.44%   44.92%   1.64%    7.52%           57.89%    40.44%   1.67%    17.45%

 

Income       55.07%   43.27%   1.66%            53.28%   44.89%   1.83%    8.39%           57.92%    40.42%   1.66%    17.50%

Educ         55.05%   43.39%   1.56%            52.95%   45.47%   1.58%    7.48%           57.86%    40.58%   1.56%    17.28%

Decided      57.16%   41.48%   1.35%            54.25%   44.24%   1.51%    10.01%          58.19%    40.45%   1.35%    17.74%

Party        54.50%   43.72%   1.78%            53.04%   45.56%   1.40%    7.48%           57.80%    40.45%   1.75%    17.35%

Ideology     54.42%   43.58%   2.00%            52.53%   45.47%   2.00%    7.05%           57.34%    40.66%   2.00%    16.68%

 

Region       55.04%   43.54%   1.42%            52.74%   45.32%   1.94%    7.42%           57.94%    40.34%   1.94%    17.60%

Religion     54.22%   43.90%   1.88%            52.64%   45.30%   2.06%    7.34%           57.50%    40.62%   1.88%    16.88%

Area         54.84%   43.40%   1.76%            52.79%   45.21%   2.00%    7.58%           57.84%    40.40%   1.76%    17.44%

Senate       55.83%   42.60%   1.57%            55.11%   43.89%   1.00%    11.23%          57.75%    40.83%   1.42%    16.92%

                                                                                                        

Mean         55.08%   43.28%   1.63%            53.03%   45.10%   1.79%    7.93%           57.80%     40.61%   1.53%    17.19%

StDev         0.69%    0.58%    0.18%            0.76%    0.52%    0.34%    1.23%           0.22%     0.32%    0.48%    0.45%

 

 

HOW VOTED IN 2004                                                                                                          

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*        Dem      Rep      Other

Kerry    45%      93%      6%       1%               43%      92%      7%       1%               50%         93%      6%       1%

Bush     47%      17%      82%      1%               49%      15%      83%      2%               45%         17%      82%      1%

Other     4%      67%      23%      10%               4%      66%      23%      11%               1%         67%      23%      10%

DNV       4%      67%      30%      3%                4%      66%      32%      2%                4%         67%      30%      3%

TOTAL    100%     55.20%   43.36%   1.44%            100%     52.19%   45.88%   1.93%            100%        57.50%   41.33%   1.17%

        

                                                                                               

GENDER                                                                                                             

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*         Dem      Rep      Other

Male     49%      53%      45%      2%               49%      50%      47%      3%               48%         55%      43%      2%

Female   51%      57%      42%      1%               51%      55%      43%      2%               52%         59%      40%      1%

TOTAL    100%     55.04%   43.47%   1.49%            100%     52.55%   44.96%   2.49%            100%        57.08%   41.44%   1.48%

                                                                                                                   

RACE/GENDER                                                                                                                

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

WM       39%      47%      51%      2%               39%      44%      53%      3%               39%         50%      48%      2%

WF       40%      51%      48%      1%               40%      49%      50%      1%               40%         53%      45%      2%

NWM      9%       76%      22%      2%               9%       75%      23%      2%                9%         78%      20%      2%

NWF      11%      79%      20%      1%               11%      78%      21%      1%               11%         84%      14%      2%

TOTAL    99%      54.26%   43.27%   1.47%            99%      52.09%   45.05%   1.86%            99%         56.96%   40.06%   1.98%

 

WHEN DECIDED

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX***   Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

Today    9%       60%      37%      3%               10%      61%      36%      3%                9%         62%      35%      3%

3Days    9%       57%      41%      2%               9%       51%      47%      2%                9%         58%      40%      2%

Week     8%       53%      45%      2%               9%       52%      47%      1%                8%         54%      44%      2%

Month    21%      58%      41%      1%               21%      54%      44%      2%               21%         58%      41%      1%

Before   52%      57%      42%      1%               50%      54%      45%      1%               52%         57%      42%      1%

TOTAL    99%      56.59%   41.07%   1.34%            99%      53.71%   43.80%   1.49%            99%         56.94%   40.72%   1.34%

                                                                                                                   

RACE

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other           MIX          Dem      Rep      Other

White    80%      49%      49%      2%               79%      47%      51%      2%               80%         50%      48%      2%

Black    10%      88%      12%      0%               10%      89%      10%      1%               10%         90%      10%      0%

Latino   8%       72%      26%      2%               8%       69%      30%      1%                8%         74%      24%      2%

Asian    2%       65%      35%      0%               2%       62%      37%      1%                2%         71%      29%      0%

Other    1%       59%      36%      5%               2%       55%      42%      3%                1%         62%      33%      5%

TOTAL    101%     55.65%   43.54%   1.81%            101%     53.89%   45.27%   1.84%            101%        56.96%   42.23%   1.81%

                                                                                                                   

AGE

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX****  Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

18-29    11%      60%      38%      2%               12%      60%      38%      2%               11%         62%      36%      2%

30-44    23%      55%      43%      2%               24%      53%      45%      2%               23%         57%      41%      2%

45-59    33%      55%      44%      1%               34%      53%      46%      1%               33%         58%      41%      1%

60+      33%      53%      45%      2%               29%      50%      48%      2%               33%         54%      44%      2%

TOTAL    100%     54.89%   43.44%   1.67%            99%      52.44%   44.92%   1.64%            100%        56.89%   41.44%   1.67%

                                                                                                                   

INCOME

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

< 15     7%       67%      30%      3%               7%       67%      30%      3%                7%         69%      28%      3%

15-30    12%      63%      35%      2%               12%      61%      36%      3%               12%         65%      33%      2%

30-50    21%      58%      41%      1%               21%      56%      43%      1%               21%         61%      38%      1%

50-75    22%      52%      46%      2%               22%      50%      48%      2%               22%         54%      44%      2%

75-100   15%      53%      46%      1%               15%      52%      47%      1%               15%         54%      45%      1%

100-150 13%       50%      48%      2%               13%      47%      51%      2%               13%         51%      47%      2%

150-200   5%      47%      51%      2%               5%       47%      51%      2%                5%         49%      49%      2%

200+      5%      48%      51%      1%               5%       45%      53%      2%                5%         49%      50%      1%

TOTAL    100%     55.07%   43.27%   1.66%            100%     53.28%   44.89%   1.83%            100%        56.95%   41.39%   1.66%

                                                                                                                   

REGION

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*     Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

NE       22%      64%      35%      1%               22%      63%      35%      2%               22%         66%      33%      2%

MidW     27%      57%      42%      1%               27%      52%      47%      1%               27%         59%      40%      1%

South    29%      45%      54%      1%               30%      45%      53%      2%               30%         48%      50%      2%

West     21%      57%      40%      3%               21%      54%      43%      3%               21%         58%      39%      3%

TOTAL    99%      54.49%   43.10%   1.41%            100%     52.74%   45.32%   1.94%            100%        57.03%   41.25%   1.94%

 

EDUCATION

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX***   Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

NoHS     4%       64%      35%      1%               3%       64%      35%      1%                4%         67%      32%      1%

HSG      21%      57%      42%      1%               21%      55%      44%      1%               21%         59%      40%      1%

Col      30%      52%      46%      2%               31%      51%      47%      2%               30%         54%      44%      2%

Grad     26%      52%      46%      2%               27%      49%      49%      2%               26%         54%      44%      2%

PostG    19%      60%      39%      1%               18%      58%      41%      1%               19%         62%      37%      1%

TOTAL    100%     55.05%   43.39%   1.56%            100%     52.95%   45.47%   1.58%            100%        57.09%   41.35%   1.56%

                                                                                                                   

EDUCATION

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

NoDeg    54%      55%      43%      2%               55%      53%      45%      2%               54%         55%      43%      2%

Grad     46%      55%      43%      2%               45%      53%      46%      1%               46%         59%      39%      2%

TOTAL    100%     55.00%   43.00%   2.00%            100%     53.00%   45.45%   1.55%            100%        56.84%   41.16%   2.00%

                                                                                                                   

PARTYID

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

Dem      39%      93%      6%       1%               38%      93%      7%       0%               40%         94%      5%       1%

Rep      35%      9%       90%      1%               36%      8%       91%      1%               35%         12%      87%      1%

Ind      26%      58%      38%      4%               26%      57%      39%      4%               25%         61%      35%      4%

TOTAL    100%     54.50%   43.72%   1.78%            100%     53.04%   45.56%   1.40%            100%        57.05%   41.20%   1.75%

                                                                                                        

IDEOLOGY

        MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*     Dem      Rep      Other            MIX          Dem      Rep      Other

Lib      21%      88%      10%      2%               20%      87%      11%      2%               21%         91%      7%       2%

Mod      48%      62%      36%      2%               47%      60%      38%      2%               48%         64%      34%      2%

Con      32%      21%      77%      2%               32%      20%      78%      2%               32%         22%      76%      2%

TOTAL    101%     54.96%   44.02%   2.02%            99%      52.00%   45.02%   1.98%            101%        56.87%   42.11%   2.02%

                                                                                                                   

RELIGION

        MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

Prot     55%      46%      52%      2%               55%      44%      54%      2%               55%         49%      49%      2%

Cath     26%      56%      43%      1%               26%      55%      44%      1%               26%         58%      41%      1%

Jewish   2%       87%      10%      3%               2%       87%      12%      1%                2%         87%      10%      3%

Other    6%       71%      25%      4%               6%       71%      25%      4%                6%         75%      21%      4%

None     11%      76%      22%      2%               11%      74%      22%      4%               11%         80%      18%      2%

TOTAL    100%     54.22%   43.90%   1.88%            100%     52.64%   45.30%   2.06%            100%        57.07%   41.05%   1.88%

                                                                                                    

 

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U.S. House Vote: CBS News 11/09                

 

         Reported                                   Uncounted                            Switch   TRUE              

         Total    Dem      GOP      Other    Margin   Total%   Dem      Rep      Other    Dem      Dem         Rep      Other    Margin

         76585    52.66%   45.13%   2.21%    7.53%    3.16%    1873     574      50       2823     56.94%      40.86%   2.20%    Diff

        

AL       579      38.7%    60.8%    0.5%     -22.1%   3.7%     16       5        0.4      16       42.6%         56.8%    0.6%     7.1%

AK       202      40.1%    56.9%    3.0%     -16.8%   3.7%     6        2        0.2      6        44.0%         53.0%    2.9%     7.2%

AZ       1127     42.5%    51.1%    6.4%     -8.6%    2.7%     23       8        0.6      34       46.2%         47.5%    6.3%     7.1%

AR       747      60.0%    40.0%    0.0%     19.9%    3.1%     18       6        0.5      31       64.5%         35.5%    0.1%     9.7%

CA       6236     56.9%    39.8%    3.3%     17.2%    3.4%     158      53       4.2      248      61.3%         35.4%    3.3%     9.3%

 

CO       1371     53.1%    41.7%    5.2%     11.4%    2.6%     27       9        0.7      51       57.2%         37.7%    5.1%     8.5%

CT       1079     60.4%    39.0%    0.6%     21.4%    2.9%     23       8        0.6      46       64.9%         34.5%    0.6%     9.6%

DE       509      38.7%    57.2%    4.1%     -18.5%   3.5%     13       4        0.4      14       42.5%         53.4%    4.1%     6.9%

FL       3727     40.2%    58.0%    1.8%     -17.8%   3.1%     88       29       2.3      105      43.9%         54.2%    1.8%     7.0%

GA       1916     41.7%    58.3%    0.0%     -16.6%   4.0%     58       19       1.5      56       45.8%         54.2%    0.1%     7.5%

 

HI       338      65.1%    34.9%    0.0%     30.2%    6.4%     16       5        0.4      15       69.9%         30.0%    0.1%     11.6%

ID       435      39.8%    55.9%    4.4%     -16.1%   2.3%     8        3        0.2      12       43.3%         52.4%    4.3%     6.6%

IL       3127     55.4%    44.2%    0.4%     11.2%    3.2%     75       25       2.0      121      59.7%         39.8%    0.5%     9.1%

IN       1646     48.8%    49.9%    1.3%     -1.1%    2.7%     33       11       0.9      56       52.8%         45.9%    1.4%     7.9%

IA       1028     47.7%    50.6%    1.8%     -2.9%    2.3%     18       6        0.5      34       51.5%         46.7%    1.8%     7.6%

 

KS       827      43.7%    54.4%    1.9%     -10.8%   2.7%     16       5        0.4      25       47.4%         50.6%    1.9%     7.2%

KY       1244     47.9%    49.0%    3.1%     -1.0%    2.6%     24       8        0.6      42       51.8%         45.1%    3.1%     7.8%

LA       901      32.6%    64.4%    3.0%     -31.7%   4.2%     28       9        0.7      21       36.5%         60.6%    3.0%     6.4%

ME       529      65.2%    30.4%    4.3%     34.8%    2.2%     9        3        0.2      24       69.9%         25.8%    4.3%     10.0%

MD       1344     61.6%    35.3%    3.1%     26.3%    4.1%     41       14       1.1      58       66.2%         30.8%    3.0%     10.2%

 

MA       1068     74.3%    18.5%    7.2%     55.7%    2.8%     22       7        0.6      56       79.3%         13.6%    7.1%     11.5%

MI       3516     51.0%    46.2%    2.8%     4.7%     3.1%     83       28       2.2      126      55.2%         42.1%    2.7%     8.4%

MN       2178     53.0%    42.5%    4.5%     10.5%    2.6%     42       14       1.1      81       57.1%         38.4%    4.5%     8.5%

MS       581      43.2%    50.8%    6.0%     -7.6%    4.3%     19       6        0.5      18       47.4%         46.8%    5.9%     7.9%

MO       2050     47.1%    50.3%    2.6%     -3.2%    2.9%     45       15       1.2      68       51.0%         46.4%    2.6%     7.8%

 

MT       805      39.0%    59.1%    1.9%     -20.1%   2.5%     15       5        0.4      22       42.5%         55.6%    1.9%     6.6%

NE       586      43.9%    56.1%    0.0%     -12.3%   2.5%     11       4        0.3      18       47.6%         52.4%    0.0%     7.2%

NV       573      50.1%    45.2%    4.7%     4.9%     3.0%     13       4        0.3      20       54.2%         41.2%    4.6%     8.3%

NH       402      52.0%    47.0%    1.0%     5.0%     2.2%     7        2        0.2      15       56.0%         43.0%    1.0%     8.2%

NJ       1859     51.0%    47.6%    1.3%     3.4%     3.4%     47       16       1.3      66       55.3%         43.4%    1.4%     8.5%

 

NM       545      55.8%    44.2%    0.0%     11.6%    2.9%     12       4        0.3      21       60.1%         39.9%    0.1%     9.0%

NY       3561     64.2%    35.6%    0.2%     28.6%    3.6%     95       32       2.5      160      68.8%         30.9%    0.3%     10.4%

NC       1842     50.8%    49.2%    0.0%     1.5%     3.6%     49       16       1.3      65       55.0%         44.9%    0.1%     8.6%

ND       433      65.6%    34.4%    0.0%     31.2%    2.5%     8        3        0.2      20       70.3%         29.7%    0.0%     10.2%

OH       3763     52.4%    47.4%    0.2%     4.9%     2.9%     82       27       2.2      138      56.5%         43.2%    0.3%     8.5%

 

OK       905      41.2%    57.2%    1.5%     -16.0%   3.3%     22       7        0.6      26       45.0%         53.4%    1.6%     7.2%

OR       1264     56.4%    41.4%    2.2%     15.0%    2.5%     24       8        0.6      50       60.7%         37.1%    2.2%     8.9%

PA       3815     54.0%    44.7%    1.3%     9.3%     2.8%     81       27       2.2      144      58.2%         40.4%    1.3%     8.7%

RI       372      71.0%    11.3%    17.7%    59.7%    2.7%     7        2        0.2      18       75.9%         6.8%     17.3%    11.0%

SC       1072     43.5%    55.3%    1.2%     -11.8%   3.9%     32       11       0.8      33       47.6%         51.2%    1.2%     7.7%

 

SD       667      69.1%    29.4%    1.5%     39.7%    2.7%     13       4        0.4      32       73.9%         24.5%    1.5%     10.7%

TN       1712     50.2%    46.6%    3.2%     3.7%     3.1%     40       13       1.1      60       54.4%         42.5%    3.2%     8.3%

TX       3994     44.6%    51.8%    3.6%     -7.2%    3.0%     90       30       2.4      125      48.5%         48.0%    3.5%     7.5%

UT       549      42.6%    51.5%    5.8%     -8.9%    2.4%  ;   10       3        0.3      16       46.3%         48.0%    5.7%     7.0%

VT       524      53.2%    44.7%    2.1%     8.6%     2.2%     9        3        0.2      20       57.3%         40.6%    2.1%     8.4%

 

VA       2148     37.7%    56.8%    5.5%     -19.1%   3.6%     57       19       1.5      57       41.5%         53.1%    5.4%     6.8%

WA       1309     61.3%    38.1%    0.5%     23.2%    2.9%     28       9        0.8      56       65.9%         33.6%    0.6%     9.7%

WV       446      57.8%    42.2%    0.0%     15.7%    2.3%     8        3        0.2      18       62.2%         37.8%    0.0%     9.0%

WI       1852     54.0%    45.1%    0.8%     8.9%     2.6%     36       12       1.0      70       58.2%         40.9%    0.8%     8.6%

WY       377      48.8%    49.3%    1.9%     -0.5%    2.3%     7        2        0.2      13       52.7%         45.4%    1.9%     7.8%

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