The 2008 Election Calculator:

A Preliminary Projection and Post-election analysis

 

TruthIsAll

 

May 23, 2008

Updated Dec. 30, 2008

 

On May 23, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The projection was based on the candidate’s share of returning 2004 voters and those who did not vote in 2004.  The analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast (including uncounted), but millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised “caged” voters will never get to the polls. If they were allowed to vote, the landslide would be significantly greater than the projected 12 million vote margin.

 

But the official Recorded Vote never reflects the True Vote. Accordingly, we can expect that Obama’s recorded margin will be lower. The landslide will be denied due to election fraud, just like it was in the 2006 midterms when the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results indicate.

 

Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents, but may not do as well with white Democrats. There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.

 

Only massive election fraud can prevent Obama from winning the presidency.

__________________________________________________________________________

 

Post-election update:

Obama won the official vote by 9.5 million, 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%).  The Election Calculator indicated that the True Vote was 77.9-55.3m (57.1-40.8%). The model used the Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares, but with a return voter mix based on the 2004 aggregate state exit poll (Kerry by 52-47%) adjusted for voter mortality (4.8%), uncounted votes (3%) and a 95% turnout of 2004 voters in 2008. The 2008 NEP 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split was not only implausible- it was impossible. It implied that approximately 4 million more Bush voters turned out in 2008 than were still living.

 

Download the 2008 Election Calculator  (Excel) to run your own scenarios

 

2008 Projected True Vote (May 23, 2008)

           

                                                                Estimated vote share        

2004   Turnout      Voted     Mix          Obama   McCain Other

DNV         -               17.2         13.1%      59%         40%         1%

Kerry       95%         60.5         46.2%      89%         10%         1%

Bush        95%         51.6         39.4%      11%         88%         1%

Other       95%         1.6           1.2%        70%         11%         19%

                                                                                                 

Total        113.7       130.9       100%       54.1%      44.7%      1.2%

                                                130.9        70.8        58.5         1.6

 

 

Calculated True Vote (Dec 25, 2008)

The 2008 NEP indicated that Obama did significantly better than projected with new (+12%) and returning Bush voters (+6%)

           

                                                                2008 Final NEP        

2004   Turnout      Voted     Mix          Obama   McCain Other

DNV         -               21.71       16.0%      71%         27%         2%

Kerry       95%         59.13       43.7%      89%         9%           2%

Bush        95%         53.44       39.5%      17%         82%         1%

Other       95%         1.14         0.84%      66%         24%         10%

                                                                                                 

Total       113.7       131.37     100%       57.1%      40.8%      1.2%

True Vote                              131.37      77.9        55.3         2.3

 

Recorded Vote                    131.37      69.46       59.94       1.98

                                                 100%      52.87%   45.62%     1.51%

 

 

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37m voters in 2008. Bush had 62.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died; there were 59.0m potential 2008 voters. Assuming that 3.0m did not vote, the Final indicates there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted.

 

If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m).  Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in 2008. If 95% (51.9m) voted in 2008, that’s an 8.5m vote discrepancy from the 2008 Final NEP.

 

Like the 2004 Final, the 2008 Final is also impossible. And because it was forced to match the recorded vote, the 2008 recorded vote must also have been impossible.

 

The Final NEP indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Since approximately 2.8m died, 48.4m of 56.2m (86%) living Kerry voters returned to vote in 2008. How could there have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters when Bush won by just 3.0m votes? One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain. 

 

The Final indicates that other (third-party) 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the total).

 

The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The 2004 Final reported a 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter share of the 2004 electorate.  But the Bush 43% share was also mathematically and physically impossible since it meant that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000; but he had just 50.5m and approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. The 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.

 

 

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

 

 2004 returning voter mix forced to match the recorded 2008 vote using an impossible mix of returning 2004 voters

 

Implied

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

17.08

13%

71%

27%

2%

12.1

4.6

0.3

42.5%

Kerry

48.61

37%

89%

9%

2%

43.3

4.4

1.0

52.9%

Bush

60.43

46%

17%

82%

1%

10.3

49.6

0.6

4.6%

Other

5.25

4%

66%

24%

10%

3.5

1.3

0.5

114.3

Total

131.37

100%

52.62%

45.52%

1.86%

69.13

59.80

2.44

 

 

2008 Election Calculator – a plausible return voter mix

 

The model also used Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP return voter mix.

 

The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter mix (Bush won by 50.73-48.27%).

Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).

Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

In 2004, the difference between the calculated vote and recorded vote margin was 13 million. Kerry lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3m. The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 67-57m.  A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.2% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used rather than the Final because the Bush shares were also inflated in the Final (along with the Bush returning voter mix) to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

Scenario 1: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 recorded vote and

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

 

a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).

b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

Recorded

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

15.4

5.9

0.4

48.27%

Kerry

55.72

41.1%

89%

9%

2%

49.6

5.0

1.1

50.73%

Bush

56.86

42.0%

17%

82%

1%

9.7

46.6

0.6

1.00%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.1

 

Total

135.43

100.0%

55.69%

42.66%

1.65%

75.43

57.77

2.23

 

Scenario 2: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll and

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

 

a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.

b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

2004 Unadj.

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Exit Poll

DNV

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

15.4

5.9

0.43

52.0%

Kerry

59.13

43.7%

89%

9%

2%

52.6

5.3

1.18

47.0%

Bush

53.44

39.5%

17%

82%

1%

9.1

43.8

0.53

1.0%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.11

 

Total

135.43

100%

57.51%

40.82%

1.67%

77.88

55.28

2.27

 

 

2004 Calculated True Vote

 

Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%). The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2-45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1-46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am National Exit Poll by 50.8-48.2%. The analysis was based on NEP vote shares applied to estimates of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m uncounted votes were for Kerry. Investigative reporter Greg Palast provided government records which indicated the actual number of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots which comprised the 3.0m total.

 

                                               
                                                               12:22am Composite NEP                                                    

2000    Turnout     Voted     Mix          Kerry      Bush       Other
DNV         -               25.6         20.4%      57%         41%         2%
Gore        95%         49.7         39.5%      91%         8%           1%
Bush        95%         46.6         37.1%      10%         90%         0%
Other       95%         3.8           3.0%        64%         17%         19%
                                                                                               
Total        100.1       125.7       100%       53.2%      45.4%      1.4%
                                                125.7       66.9         57.1         1.7
                                                                                               
Recorded                                122.3       59.0         62.0         1.2
                                                                48.3%      50.7%      1.0%
                                                                                               
Unadjusted Exit Poll                                 52.1%      46.9%      1.0%
True Vote Discrepancy                           -1.1%      1.5%        -0.4%

 

 

2000 Calculated True Vote                     

 

Al Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.5m (48.4-47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that Gore won the True Vote by 55.3-51.4m (49.9-46.4%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for the 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentees and provisionals) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote by 537.

 

                                                                Final NEP vote share                                                          

1996    Turnout     Voted     Mix          Gore       Bush       Other

DNV         -               15.0         13.5%      52%         43%         5%

Clinton     96%         49.3         44.5%      86%         11%         3%

Dole         96%         37.3         33.7%      7%           91%         2%

Other       96%         9.2           8.3%        27%         61%         12%

                                                                                               

Total        95.8         110.8       100%       49.9%      46.4%      3.7%

                                                110.8       55.3        51.4        4.1

 

Recorded (actual)                   105.4       51.0         50.5         3.9

                                                                48.4%      47.9%      3.7%

 

Unadjusted Exit Poll                                 49.4%      46.9%      3.7%                                                                      

True Vote Discrepancy                            -0.5%    + 0.5%      -0.0%