2008 Election Calculator: A Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis

 

TruthIsAll

 

Dec. 26, 2008

 

Election models consist of recorded data, assumptions (parameters), and calculations. Given that the mathematical logic in the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) is correct, the assumptions should be realistic in order to determine the True Vote. The EC base case assumptions are the best estimates derived from the following data sources: 2008 National Exit Poll and 2004 unadjusted aggregate state exit polls, 2004 and 2008 official recorded vote, voter mortality tables, historical returning voter turnout percentages, Census total votes cast. Due to the margin of error in the data and assumptions, a thorough examination of the effects of changes in the assumptions on the vote share is necessary in order to have confidence in the model.

 

Two general cases will be analyzed. The first assumes that the 2004 election was legitimate and that the recorded vote (Bush by 50.7-48.3%) was the True vote; the second assumes that the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate reflected the True Vote (Kerry by 52-47%).

 

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares of returning 2004 and new voters are used as the base case. Since the shares were used to match the recorded vote, it makes perfect sense to use them for the base case. The model calculates the returning voter mix based on plausible, documented assumptions for 2004 uncounted votes, voter mortality and voter turnout in 2008. Along with the vote shares, the assumptions comprise the full base case in the sensitivity analysis.

 

The EC contains a comprehensive set of 12 sensitivity analysis tables. Each 5x5 table displays vote share and margin for 25 combinations of two input data assumptions. It is very likely that the True Vote is represented in one of the 25 cells. The base case is located in the central cell. The range of plausible True vote shares is reduced by focusing on the input combinations that lie within the margin of error. For example, Table 1 contains two input variables: the Obama share of Kerry and Bush voters. They range over the intervals 85-93% and 13-21% in increments of 2%. The base case Obama True vote share is found in the central cell, where the base case assumptions intersect (89% Kerry; 17% Bush)

 

To analyze the effect of incremental changes in the assumptions, compare the base case vote share and margin (central cell) to the adjacent cells. The least likely combinations are in the lower left (worst case) and upper right (best case) cells.

 

These are the base case assumption estimates:

1)      The US Census determined that 2.74% (3.45m) of 125.74m votes cast in 2004 were uncounted.

2)      3.0% of votes cast in 2008 will be uncounted.

3)      Obama and Kerry each won approximately 75% of the uncounted vote (over 50% of uncounted votes are in minority districts).

4)      1.2% annual voter mortality (18+ years old).

5)      95% of Kerry, Bush and Other voters still living in 2008 turned out to vote.

6)      2008 Final NEP vote shares. Approximately 4000 respondents (2% MoE for vote shares depending on the margin).

 

For those who believe the 2004 election was legitimate:

Scenario 1: The returning 2004 voter mix is based on the Recorded Vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%)

 

For those who believe the 2004 election was stolen:

Scenario 2: The returning 2004 voter mix is based on the Unadjusted Exit Poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%)

 

The tables display the Obama vote share and margin over a range of:

Table 1- Obama share of New and Kerry voters

Table 2- Obama share of New and Bush voters

Table 3- Uncounted vote rates and Obama share of Kerry voters

Table 4- Uncounted vote rates and Obama share of Bush voters

Table 5- Voter mortality rates and Obama share of Kerry voters

Table 6- Voter mortality rates and Obama share of Bush voters

Table 7- Kerry vote shares and Obama share of Kerry voters

Table 8- Kerry vote shares and Obama share of Bush voters

Table 9- Voter mortality rates and Kerry Turnout

Table 10- Voter mortality rates and Bush Turnout

Table 11- Obama share of Kerry and Bush voters

Table 12- Kerry share of uncounted vote and Obama share of Bush voters

 

Scenario 1: 2004 recorded vote (Bush 50.7- Kerry 48.3%)

Obama base case margin: 17.7m (55.6%)

 

Scenario 2: unadjusted 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%)

Obama base case margin: 22.6m (57.5%)

 

Effect of a 1% change in Election Calculator model assumptions on the Obama vote margin (in millions):

Variable: change in margin

Obama share of Kerry voters: 1.2

Obama share of Bush voters: 1.1

Obama share of new voters: 0.9

Kerry voter turnout: 0.2

Voter mortality (4-year): 0.2

Kerry vote share: 1.5

Effect of a 5% change in the Kerry share of uncounted votes: 0.2

 

Examples of the effect of other changes in assumptions (Scenario 2):

The base case Obama True Vote share is 57.5% (22.6m vote margin).

 

The base case assumes that returning Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008 was 95%.

What if 91% of Kerry voters and 99% of Bush voters returned to vote?

The effect on the Obama vote share is minimal: 57.1% (21.4m margin, a 1.2m decrease).

 

The base case assumes that annual voter mortality was 1.2% (4.8% over 4 years).

What if the mortality rate was 0.8% (3.2% over 4 years)?

The effect on the Obama vote share is minimal: 57.3% (22.0m margin, a .60m decrease).

 

The base case Obama share of Kerry voters is 89% (National Exit Poll).

What if the Obama share was actually 87%?

The Obama vote share would be 56.6% (20.2m margin, a 2.4m decrease).

The MoE is 1.14% for the Obama 89% share (4195 sample, assuming a 20% cluster effect) .

The probability of the 2% deviation is 1 in 3500.

 

 

Scenario 1: 2004 Recorded Vote

 

2008 Election Calculator

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec. 23, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

63.444

56.126

1.636

121.207

 

 

 

 

(11/04/08)

52.34%

46.31%

1.35%

100.00%

 

Kerry True Vote (default)

53.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

2

52.00%

47.00%

1.00%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

59.027

62.040

1.228

122.295

 

2008

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

 

Recorded

59.027

62.040

1.228

122.295

 

True Vote

75.43

57.77

2.23

135.43

 

 

48.266%

50.730%

1.004%

100%

 

 

55.69%

42.66%

1.65%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

(3.05)

(0.98)

(0.04)

(4.06)

 

Uncounted

2.58

0.83

0.03

3.45

 

Adjusted

72.38

56.80

2.19

131.37

 

 

75.0%

24.0%

1.0%

2.74%

 

Switched

(2.92)

3.14

(0.21)

131.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rate

-3.9%

5.4%

-9.5%

0.0%

 

True Vote

61.61

62.87

1.26

125.74

 

Recorded

69.457

59.935

1.978

131.370

 

 

49.0%

50.0%

1.0%

100%

 

(12/19/08)

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

2008 NEP

2004 NEP

2004 NEP

 

Uncounted

% of total

(in mil.)

Total Cast

 

 

Obama

Share

Final

12:22am

Final

 

2008

3.00%

4.06

135.43

 

 

DNV

71%

71%

57%

54%

 

2004

2.74%

3.45

125.74

 

 

Kerry

89%

89%

91%

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

17%

17%

10%

9%

 

2004 Unctd

Share

2008 Unctd

Share

 

 

Other

66%

66%

64%

71%

 

Kerry

75%

Obama

75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

24%

McCain

24%

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

Other

1%

Other

1%

 

 

DNV

27%

27%

41%

45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

9%

9%

8%

10%

 

2004 Annual Voter Mortality

1.20%

 

 

 

Bush

82%

82%

90%

91%

 

 

Total Died

6.04

 

 

 

Other

24%

24%

17%

21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Voter Turnout in 2008

 

 

 

 

DNV

2%

2%

2%

1%

 

Kerry

95%

 

 

 

 

Kerry

2%

2%

1%

0%

 

Bush

95%

 

 

 

 

Bush

1%

1%

0%

0%

 

Other

95%

 

 

 

 

Other

10%

10%

19%

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Recorded

 

 

 

2008

 

Calculated True Vote

 

 

 

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

59.03

2.58

61.61

2.96

58.65

95%

55.72

41.1%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

62.04

0.83

62.87

3.02

59.85

95%

56.86

42.0%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

95%

1.14

0.84%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

113.7

135.43

100%

55.69%

42.66%

1.65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.43

75.43

57.77

2.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.37

69.46

59.94

1.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scenario 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1.1

Obama vote share

 

 

Table 1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Bush

 

 

 

Share of New

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

Share of New

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

75%

54.7%

55.5%

56.3%

57.2%

58.0%

75%

54.7%

55.5%

56.3%

57.2%

58.0%

73%

54.4%

55.2%

56.0%

56.8%

57.7%

73%

54.3%

55.2%

56.0%

56.9%

57.7%

71%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

71%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.4%

69%

53.7%

54.5%

55.4%

56.2%

57.0%

69%

53.7%

54.5%

55.4%

56.2%

57.1%

67%

53.4%

54.2%

55.1%

55.9%

56.7%

67%

53.4%

54.2%

55.1%

55.9%

56.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

75%

14.9

17.2

19.4

21.6

23.8

75%

14.8

17.1

19.4

21.7

23.9

73%

14.1

16.3

18.5

20.8

23.0

73%

14.0

16.2

18.5

20.8

23.1

71%

13.2

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.1

71%

13.1

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.2

69%

12.3

14.6

16.8

19.0

21.2

69%

12.2

14.5

16.8

19.1

21.3

67%

11.5

13.7

15.9

18.1

20.4

67%

11.4

13.6

15.9

18.2

20.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1.3

Obama vote share

 

 

Table 1.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Bush

 

 

 

Uncounted Rate

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

Uncounted Rate

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

4%

54.2%

55.0%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

4%

54.2%

55.0%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

3%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

3%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.4%

2%

53.9%

54.7%

55.5%

56.4%

57.2%

2%

53.8%

54.7%

55.5%

56.4%

57.2%

1%

53.7%

54.5%

55.4%

56.2%

57.1%

1%

53.7%

54.5%

55.4%

56.2%

57.1%

0%

53.5%

54.4%

55.2%

56.1%

56.9%

0%

53.5%

54.4%

55.2%

56.1%

57.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4%

13.8

16.0

18.3

20.5

22.7

4%

13.7

16.0

18.3

20.5

22.8

3%

13.2

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.1

3%

13.1

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.2

2%

12.6

14.8

17.0

19.3

21.5

2%

12.5

14.8

17.0

19.3

21.6

1%

12.0

14.2

16.4

18.7

20.9

1%

11.9

14.2

16.4

18.7

21.0

0%

11.4

13.6

15.9

18.1

20.3

0%

11.3

13.6

15.9

18.1

20.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1.5

Obama vote share

 

 

Table 1.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Bush

 

 

 

Mortality Rate

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

Mortality Rate

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

1.6%

54.3%

55.1%

56.0%

56.8%

57.6%

1.6%

54.3%

55.1%

56.0%

56.8%

57.6%

1.4%

54.2%

55.0%

55.8%

56.6%

57.5%

1.4%

54.2%

55.0%

55.8%

56.7%

57.5%

1.2%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

1.2%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.4%

1.0%

53.9%

54.7%

55.6%

56.4%

57.2%

1.0%

53.9%

54.7%

55.6%

56.4%

57.3%

0.8%

53.8%

54.6%

55.4%

56.3%

57.1%

0.8%

53.7%

54.6%

55.4%

56.3%

57.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.6%

14.0

16.2

18.4

20.5

22.7

1.6%

13.9

16.1

18.4

20.6

22.8

1.4%

13.6

15.8

18.0

20.2

22.4

1.4%

13.5

15.8

18.0

20.3

22.5

1.2%

13.2

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.1

1.2%

13.1

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.2

1.0%

12.8

15.1

17.3

19.5

21.8

1.0%

12.7

15.0

17.3

19.6

21.9

0.8%

12.4

14.7

16.9

19.2

21.5

0.8%

12.3

14.6

16.9

19.3

21.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1.7

Obama vote share

 

 

Table 1.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Bush

 

 

 

Kerry Vote

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

Kerry Vote

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

53%

56.7%

57.6%

58.5%

59.4%

60.3%

53%

57.0%

57.7%

58.5%

59.2%

60.0%

52%

56.1%

57.0%

57.9%

58.8%

59.7%

52%

56.3%

57.1%

57.9%

58.7%

59.4%

51%

55.6%

56.4%

57.3%

58.2%

59.0%

51%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

58.9%

50%

55.0%

55.9%

56.7%

57.6%

58.4%

50%

55.1%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

58.3%

49%

54.5%

55.3%

56.1%

57.0%

57.8%

49%

54.5%

55.3%

56.1%

57.0%

57.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

53%

20.4

22.8

25.2

27.7

30.1

53%

21.1

23.2

25.2

27.3

29.4

52%

18.9

21.2

23.6

26.0

28.4

52%

19.4

21.5

23.6

25.8

27.9

51%

17.3

19.7

22.0

24.4

26.7

51%

17.7

19.9

22.0

24.2

26.3

50%

15.8

18.1

20.4

22.7

25.0

50%

16.0

18.2

20.4

22.6

24.8

49%

14.3

16.6

18.8

21.1

23.4

49%

14.3

16.6

18.8

21.1

23.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1.9

Obama vote share

 

 

 

Table 1.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry turnout (Bush turnout is 95%)

 

 

 

 

Bush turnout (Kerry turnout is 95%)

 

 

Mortality Rate

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

Mortality Rate

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

1.6%

55.6%

55.8%

56.0%

56.1%

56.3%

1.6%

56.9%

56.4%

56.0%

55.5%

55.0%

1.4%

55.5%

55.7%

55.8%

56.0%

56.1%

1.4%

56.8%

56.3%

55.8%

55.3%

54.9%

1.2%

55.4%

55.5%

55.7%

55.8%

56.0%

1.2%

56.6%

56.2%

55.7%

55.2%

54.7%

1.0%

55.3%

55.4%

55.6%

55.7%

55.9%

1.0%

56.5%

56.0%

55.6%

55.1%

54.6%

0.8%

55.1%

55.3%

55.4%

55.6%

55.8%

0.8%

56.4%

55.9%

55.4%

55.0%

54.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.6%

17.5

17.9

18.4

18.8

19.2

1.6%

20.9

19.6

18.4

17.1

15.8

1.4%

17.2

17.6

18.0

18.4

18.8

1.4%

20.6

19.3

18.0

16.7

15.4

1.2%

16.8

17.2

17.7

18.1

18.5

1.2%

20.3

19.0

17.7

16.3

15.0

1.0%

16.4

16.9

17.3

17.7

18.2

1.0%

19.9

18.6

17.3

16.0

14.7

0.8%

16.1

16.5

16.9

17.4

17.8

0.8%

19.6

18.3

16.9

15.6

14.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1.11

Obama vote share

 

 

Table 1.12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share of Uncounted

 

 

 

Share of Bush

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

Share of Bush

52%

70%

75%

80%

90%

21%

55.7%

56.5%

57.4%

58.2%

59.0%

21%

57.0%

57.3%

57.4%

57.5%

57.6%

19%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.4%

58.2%

19%

56.2%

56.5%

56.5%

56.6%

56.8%

17%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

17%

55.3%

55.6%

55.7%

55.8%

55.9%

15%

53.2%

54.0%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

15%

54.5%

54.8%

54.9%

54.9%

55.1%

13%

52.4%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.7%

13%

53.6%

53.9%

54.0%

54.1%

54.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21%

17.7

20.0

22.2

24.4

26.7

21%

21.2

22.0

22.2

22.4

22.8

19%

15.5

17.7

19.9

22.2

24.4

19%

18.9

19.7

19.9

20.1

20.6

17%

13.2

15.4

17.7

19.9

22.1

17%

16.6

17.4

17.7

17.9

18.3

15%

10.9

13.1

15.4

17.6

19.8

15%

14.3

15.1

15.4

15.6

16.1

13%

8.6

10.9

13.1

15.3

17.6

13%

12.0

12.9

13.1

13.3

13.8

 

 

 

Scenario 2: 2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll

 

2008 Election Calculator

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec. 23, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

63.444

56.126

1.636

121.207

 

 

 

 

(11/04/08)

52.34%

46.31%

1.35%

100.00%

 

Kerry True Vote (default)

53.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

2

52.00%

47.00%

1.00%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

59.027

62.040

1.228

122.295

 

2008

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

 

Exit Poll

63.593

57.474

1.228

122.295

 

True Vote

77.88

55.28

2.27

135.43

 

 

52.0%

47.0%

1.0%

100%

 

 

57.51%

40.82%

1.67%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

(3.05)

(0.98)

(0.04)

(4.06)

 

Uncounted

1.79

1.62

0.03

3.45

 

Adjusted

74.84

54.31

2.22

131.37

 

 

52.0%

47.0%

1.0%

2.74%

 

Switched

(5.38)

5.63

(0.25)

131.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rate

-6.9%

10.2%

-10.9%

0.0%

 

True Vote

65.38

59.09

1.26

125.74

 

Recorded

69.457

59.935

1.978

131.370

 

 

52.0%

47.0%

1.0%

100%

 

(12/19/08)

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

2008 NEP

2004 NEP

2004 NEP

 

Uncounted

% of total

(in mil.)

Total Cast

 

 

Obama

Share

Final

12:22am

Final

 

2008

3.00%

4.06

135.43

 

 

DNV

71%

71%

57%

54%

 

2004

2.74%

3.45

125.74

 

 

Kerry

89%

89%

91%

90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

17%

17%

10%

9%

 

2004 Unctd

Share

2008 Unctd

Share

 

 

Other

66%

66%

64%

71%

 

Kerry

75%

Obama

75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

24%

McCain

24%

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

Other

1%

Other

1%

 

 

DNV

27%

27%

41%

45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

9%

9%

8%

10%

 

2004 Annual Voter Mortality

1.20%

 

 

 

Bush

82%

82%

90%

91%

 

 

Total Died

6.04

 

 

 

Other

24%

24%

17%

21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Voter Turnout in 2008

 

 

 

 

DNV

2%

2%

2%

1%

 

Kerry

95%

 

 

 

 

Kerry

2%

2%

1%

0%

 

Bush

95%

 

 

 

 

Bush

1%

1%

0%

0%

 

Other

95%

 

 

 

 

Other

10%

10%

19%

8%