2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

Updated: Dec. 24, 2011

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7% higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.

On Election Day 2000, 102.6 million votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote).

Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2004, 116.7million votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%.

Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2008, 121.21 million were recorded. Obama led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%).

A total of 131.37 million votes were recorded. .Obama won by 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%).

There were 10.16m votes recorded after Election Day. Obama led by 59.16-37.48%, a 7% increase in his Election Day share and 15% increase in margin.

It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because

1) They were cast using paper ballots, not on unverifiable DREs

2) Since the winner was known on Election Day, there was nothing to gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.

This analysis has been updated to include the 2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls. The exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. But the unadjusted state exit polls were generally very close to the late vote. The largest deviations were in states with only a few thousand late votes –as to be expected. Assuming that late votes are representative of the state electorate, they can be viewed as super exit polls with thousands more respondents than standard exit polls.

2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes

Obama won the state exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5% - a close match to his 59.2% late recordded share. There were 83,000 exit poll respondents.

The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a 61-37% margin.

Obama had the identical 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.

The late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the following states:

New Jersey had 224,000 late recorded votes. Obama had 64.5% of the late votes and 63.8% in the exit poll.

Maryland had 277,000 late votes. Obama had 67.9% and 67.2% in the exit poll.

New York had 584,000 late votes. Obama had 70.7% and 71.5% in the exit poll.

Ohio had 500,000 late votes. Obama had 54.6% and 56.3% in the exit poll.

Florida had 405,000 late votes. Obama had 51.6% and 52.1% in the exit poll.

Illinois had 183,000 late votes. Obama had 68.9% and 66.3% in the exit poll.

Mississippi had 77,000 late votes. Obama had 47.5% and 48.4% in the exit poll.

Tennessee had 19,000 late votes. Obama had 49.7% and 47.7% in the exit poll.

South Carolina had 117,000 late votes. Obama had 49.1% and 47.6% in the exit poll.

Kansas had 32,000 late votes. Obama had 46.2% and 46.1% in the exit poll.

2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6% (76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.

Assuming that Kerry's 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the True Vote Model which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the True Vote, namely:

1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares

2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares

3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:

1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.

2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True Vote.

3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm

See the US Election Atlas.

2008 Late Vote Timeline

(in millions of votes)

2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other

11/4      121.21 63.44    56.13    1.64      52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late      2.93      1.73      1.16      0.03      59.17% 39.66% 1.17%

11/11    124.13 65.18    57.29    1.67      52.50% 46.15% 1.35%
Late      2.37      1.40      0.92      0.05      59.20% 38.73% 2.07%

11/12    126.50 66.58    58.20    1.72      52.63% 46.01% 1.36%
Late      0.75      0.45      0.28      0.02      60.38% 36.71% 2.91%

11/17    127.25 67.03    58.48    1.74      52.68% 45.96% 1.37%
Late      0.86      0.53      0.28      0.05      61.88% 32.54% 5.57%

11/21    128.11 67.56    58.76    1.79      52.74% 45.87% 1.40%
Late      1.09      0.59      0.45      0.06      53.65% 41.23% 5.11%

11/30    129.20 68.15    59.21    1.84      52.75% 45.83% 1.43%
Late      2.17      1.31      0.73      0.13      60.38% 33.50% 6.12%

12/18 131.37    69.457 59.935 1.978    52.87% 45.62% 1.51%

Late      10.163 6.013    3.809    0.342    59.16% 37.48% 3.36%

2008 Late Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll

(sorted by Obama exit poll share)

Total Votes

131,370,177

69,457,159

59,935,404

1,977,614

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

Election Day

121,207,153

63,444,462

56,126,680

1,636,011

52.34%

46.31%

1.35%

Late recorded

Late recorded share

Change

Unadjusted Exit Poll

Unadjusted EP - Late Vote

Late Votes

10,163,024

6,012,697

3,808,724

341,603

59.16%

37.48%

3.36%

6.82%

58.06%

40.29%

1.66%

-1.10%

2.81%

-1.70%

All states

Total

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

D. C.

38,299

35,397

2,546

356

92.40%

6.60%

0.90%

0.00%

92.03%

6.37%

1.59%

-0.37%

-0.23%

0.69%

Connecticut

666,168

412,130

245,487

8,551

61.90%

36.90%

1.30%

2.10%

73.38%

23.96%

2.66%

11.48%

-12.94%

1.36%

New York

583,587

412,340

168,930

2,317

70.70%

28.90%

0.40%

8.50%

71.54%

27.34%

1.13%

0.84%

-1.56%

0.73%

Vermont

51,215

35,827

13,146

2,242

70.00%

25.70%

4.40%

3.00%

71.46%

26.45%

2.09%

1.46%

0.75%

-2.31%

Hawaii

410

283

120

69.00%

29.30%

1.70%

-2.80%

70.39%

27.56%

2.05%

1.39%

-1.74%

0.35%

Delaware

77.40%

21.40%

1.20%

15.40%

68.61%

30.87%

0.52%

-8.79%

9.47%

-0.68%

Rhode Island

608

418

172

68.80%

28.30%

3.00%

5.60%

67.47%

29.41%

3.12%

-1.33%

1.11%

0.12%

Maryland

277,296

188,357

84,752

4,187

67.90%

30.60%

1.50%

6.70%

67.20%

30.69%

2.11%

-0.70%

0.09%

0.61%

Massachusetts

38,029

18,176

4,853

15,000

47.80%

12.80%

39.40%

-14.20%

67.01%

29.60%

3.39%

19.21%

16.80%

-36.01%

California

3,227,380

1,966,458

1,162,758

98,164

60.90%

36.00%

3.00%

0.00%

67.00%

30.58%

2.43%

6.10%

-5.42%

-0.57%

Illinois

183,474

126,333

55,726

1,415

68.90%

30.40%

0.80%

7.20%

66.31%

32.40%

1.30%

-2.59%

2.00%

0.50%

New Jersey

224,461

144,760

69,110

10,591

64.50%

30.80%

4.70%

7.80%

63.84%

35.08%

1.07%

-0.66%

4.28%

-3.63%

Pennsylvania

169,363

85,680

64,058

19,625

50.60%

37.80%

11.60%

-4.00%

63.77%

35.32%

0.91%

13.17%

-2.48%

-10.69%

Wisconsin

17,764

6,737

4,212

6,815

37.90%

23.70%

38.40%

-18.40%

63.30%

35.72%

0.98%

25.40%

12.02%

-37.42%

Virginia

248,807

162,775

83,298

2,734

65.40%

33.50%

1.10%

13.70%

62.49%

36.66%

0.85%

-2.91%

3.16%

-0.25%

Michigan

120,644

105,474

11,986

3,184

87.40%

9.90%

2.60%

30.80%

62.21%

35.50%

2.29%

-25.19%

25.60%

-0.31%

Maine

57,082

32,126

23,632

1,324

56.30%

41.40%

2.30%

-1.50%

62.05%

35.45%

2.50%

5.75%

-5.95%

0.20%

Minnesota

1,646

1,152

463

70.00%

28.10%

1.90%

15.90%

61.86%

35.87%

2.27%

-8.14%

7.77%

0.37%

NewHampshire

95,872

47,937

43,596

4,339

50.00%

45.50%

4.50%

-4.80%

61.65%

37.09%

1.27%

11.65%

-8.41%

-3.23%

New Mexico

18,730

12,815

5,680

235

68.40%

30.30%

1.30%

11.80%

58.82%

39.54%

1.64%

-9.58%

9.24%

0.34%

Oregon

324,926

209,262

105,406

10,258

64.40%

32.40%

3.20%

9.30%

58.45%

38.59%

2.96%

-5.95%

6.19%

-0.24%

Washington

1,398,549

802,992

554,621

40,936

57.40%

39.70%

2.90%

0.00%

57.94%

38.20%

3.87%

0.54%

-1.50%

0.97%

Missouri

9,993

5,166

3,201

1,626

51.70%

32.00%

16.30%

2.50%

57.50%

41.40%

1.10%

5.80%

9.40%

-15.20%

Iowa

13,085

9,270

3,913

-98

70.80%

29.90%

-0.70%

17.10%

56.90%

41.18%

1.92%

-13.90%

11.28%

2.62%

Nevada

4,243

2,267

1,879

53.40%

44.30%

2.30%

-1.70%

56.34%

41.78%

1.88%

2.94%

-2.52%

-0.42%

Ohio

500,457

270,437

210,387

19,633

54.00%

42.00%

3.90%

2.90%

56.28%

42.04%

1.68%

2.28%

0.04%

-2.22%

Indiana

15,022

6,775

4,547

3,700

45.10%

30.30%

24.60%

-4.80%

55.66%

43.19%

1.16%

10.56%

12.89%

-23.44%

Montana

20,103

11,805

6,720

1,578

58.70%

33.40%

7.80%

12.00%

54.37%

43.96%

1.67%

-4.33%

10.56%

-6.13%

North Carolina

38,087

19,261

18,776

50.60%

49.30%

0.10%

0.90%

53.52%

45.84%

0.64%

2.92%

-3.46%

0.54%

Florida

404,638

208,867

173,071

22,700

51.60%

42.80%

5.60%

0.70%

52.09%

46.09%

1.82%

0.49%

3.29%

-3.78%

Alabama

8,103

1,969

2,805

3,329

24.30%

34.60%

41.10%

-14.50%

52.00%

46.97%

1.03%

27.70%

12.37%

-40.07%

Colorado

291,022

179,197

106,592

5,233

61.60%

36.60%

1.80%

9.00%

51.91%

46.09%

1.99%

-9.69%

9.49%

0.19%

Arizona

418,506

183,967

217,849

16,690

44.00%

52.10%

4.00%

-1.20%

51.42%

47.93%

0.65%

7.42%

-4.17%

-3.35%

Georgia

91,196

44,129

36,168

10,899

48.40%

39.70%

12.00%

1.50%

51.11%

48.69%

0.21%

2.71%

8.99%

-11.79%

Nebraska

31,474

17,130

13,314

1,030

54.40%

42.30%

3.30%

13.40%

49.24%

49.06%

1.70%

-5.16%

6.76%

-1.60%

Alaska

103,356

43,254

57,493

2,609

41.80%

55.60%

2.50%

5.80%

49.08%

47.49%

3.43%

7.28%

-8.11%

0.93%

South Dakota

102

46.10%

53.90%

0.00%

1.30%

48.72%

2.56%

2.62%

-5.18%

2.56%

Mississippi

77,359

36,763

40,122

474

47.50%

51.90%

0.60%

4.80%

48.43%

51.09%

0.47%

0.93%

-0.81%

-0.13%

Tennessee

18,684

9,288

9,549

-153

49.70%

51.10%

-0.80%

7.90%

47.67%

50.29%

2.03%

-2.03%

-0.81%

2.83%

SouthCarolina

116,785

57,285

58,069

1,431

49.10%

49.70%

1.20%

4.40%

47.55%

51.42%

1.03%

-1.55%

1.72%

-0.17%

Kentucky

1,738

278

349

1,111

16.00%

20.10%

63.90%

-25.20%

46.81%

51.61%

1.58%

30.81%

31.51%

-62.32%

Texas

27,452

10,551

15,421

1,480

38.40%

56.20%

5.40%

-5.20%

46.22%

52.31%

1.48%

7.82%

-3.89%

-3.92%

Kansas

32,249

14,896

14,214

3,139

46.20%

44.10%

9.70%

4.80%

46.13%

52.63%

1.25%

-0.07%

8.53%

-8.45%

Arkansas

104,212

39,685

62,019

2,508

38.10%

59.50%

2.40%

-0.90%

46.00%

50.60%

3.40%

7.90%

-8.90%

1.00%

Louisiana

2,702

2,008

672

74.30%

24.90%

0.80%

34.40%

45.94%

52.98%

1.08%

-28.36%

28.08%

0.28%

West Virginia

7,063

2,815

4,074

174

39.90%

57.70%

2.50%

-2.70%

45.14%

53.13%

1.73%

5.24%

-4.57%

-0.77%

Idaho

5,679

1,553

1,651

2,475

27.30%

29.10%

43.60%

-8.70%

41.83%

55.95%

2.22%

14.53%

26.85%

-41.38%

Oklahoma

627

207

420

33.00%

67.00%

0.00%

-1.30%

40.62%

59.26%

0.12%

7.62%

-7.74%

0.12%

North Dakota

1,787

166

1,542

9.30%

4.40%

86.30%

-35.40%

38.88%

58.96%

2.16%

29.58%

54.56%

-84.14%

Wyoming

30.80%

57.70%

11.50%

-1.80%

34.06%

64.17%

1.77%

3.26%

6.47%

-9.73%

Utah

72,828

26,143

40,700

5,985

35.90%

55.90%

8.20%

1.80%

31.53%

63.78%

4.68%

-4.37%

7.88%

-3.52%

2004 Election Day vs. Late Vote

Recorded

Election

Late

Initial

Late

Final

Initial

Late

Final

Late-

State

Total

Kerry

Bush

Other

DayTotal

Kerry

Bush

Other

Votes

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Kerry-2pty

Initial

State

313

111

191

242

152

35.5%

35.2%

35.5%

36.1%

39.1%

36.8%

2.9%

AL*

1,883

694

1,176

1,876

693

1,176

36.9%

12.5%

36.9%

37.1%

100.0%

37.1%

62.9%

AL*

1,055

470

573

1,037

464

567

44.7%

33.3%

44.5%

45.0%

50.0%

45.1%

5.0%

2,013

894

1,104

1,644

735

908

369

158

196

44.7%

42.8%

44.4%

44.7%

44.6%

44.7%

-0.1%

12,420

6,745

5,510

165

9,831

5,427

4,403

2,589

1,318

1,106

165

55.2%

50.9%

54.3%

55.2%

54.4%

55.0%

-0.8%

2,130

1,002

1,101

2,018

950

1,056

112

47.1%

46.4%

47.0%

47.4%

53.6%

47.6%

6.3%

1,579

857

694

1,544

846

685

54.8%

31.4%

54.3%

55.3%

55.0%

55.3%

-0.3%

DC*

228

203

226

203

89.8%

0.0%

89.0%

90.6%

DC*

DE*

375

200

172

374

200

172

53.5%

0.0%

53.3%

53.8%

DE*

7,610

3,584

3,965

7,563

3,575

3,956

47.3%

19.1%

47.1%

47.5%

50.0%

47.5%

2.5%

3,302

1,366

1,914

3,235

1,345

1,890

41.6%

31.3%

41.4%

41.6%

46.7%

41.6%

5.1%

HI*

429

232

194

425

231

194

54.4%

0.0%

54.1%

54.4%

54.5%

HI*

1,507

742

752

1,486

733

747

49.3%

42.9%

49.2%

49.5%

64.3%

49.7%

14.8%

ID*

598

181

409

589

181

408

30.7%

0.0%

30.3%

30.7%

0.0%

30.7%

-30.7%

ID*

5,274

2,892

2,346

5,208

2,871

2,337

55.1%

31.3%

54.8%

55.1%

70.0%

55.2%

14.9%

2,468

969

1,479

2,435

961

1,474

39.5%

24.2%

39.3%

39.5%

61.5%

39.6%

22.1%

1,188

435

736

1,147

421

718

36.7%

35.0%

36.6%

37.0%

42.4%

37.1%

5.5%

KY*

1,796

713

1,069

1,790

712

1,069

39.8%

0.0%

39.7%

40.0%

0.0%

40.0%

KY*

1,943

820

1,102

1,928

819

1,102

42.5%

6.7%

42.2%

42.6%

100.0%

42.7%

57.4%

2,912

1,804

1,071

2,861

1,794

1,067

62.7%

19.6%

62.0%

62.7%

71.4%

62.7%

8.7%

2,387

1,334

1,025

2,186

1,224

952

200

111

56.0%

55.5%

55.9%

56.3%

60.3%

56.5%

4.1%

ME*

741

397

330

734

395

330