Jan. 30, 2009
Apparently, adjusting the returning Bush/Kerry voter
mix to an impossible 46/37% was not enough to force the 2008 National Exit
Poll (NEP) to match the recorded vote. Exit pollsters also had to adjust
Obama's share of new voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in
2004) from 73% to 71%. Add this anomaly to the impossible mix of returning Bush
and third-party voters and we have hit the 2008 Election Fraud Trifecta. The
Obama True Vote Landslide was denied.
It makes sense to adjust the returning voter mix AND the vote shares to get the match. Adjusting the mix or the shares (but not both) would have been too obvious; that would force exit poll deniers to jump through even smaller hoops to explain the numbers. On the other hand, a combination of changes to the returning voter mix as well as the vote shares minimizes the radical surgery required to force the National Exit Poll to match to the recorded vote.
This sleight of hand also occurred in 2004. The Final 2004 NEP had to change the 12:22am Bush/Gore returning voter mix from 41/39% to an impossible 43/37% while reducing Kerry's share of new voters from 57% to 54%.
According to the 2008 National Exit Poll (Table 1):
1) 13% (17m) of the 131.37m recorded did not vote (DNV) in
2004.
2) Of the 13%, 11% were first-time voters and 2% voted prior
to 2004.
3) Obama won DNV by 71-27%.
4) Obama won first-time voters by 69-30% (Table 2).
5) A simple calculation indicates that he won the other 2%
by 82-13% (Table 3).
But there had to be more than 17m DNV in 2004. Here's why:
In 2004, there were 122.3 million recorded votes.
Approximately 6 million died (1.2% annual voter mortality.
Approximately 95% (110m) of the 116m still living returned
to vote in 2008.
Therefore, 21m (16%) of the 131.37m recorded were new voters
(DNV in 2004).
Assume that the 11% first-time voter stat (14.5m) is
correct.
Then the remaining 6.5m (5%) were prior voters who
did not vote in 2004.
Applying vote shares to the 21m (11% first-time and 4.8%
prior) voters (Table 4):
Obama's share of DNV is 73%, not the 71% reported in the
NEP.
Apparently, in order to match the recorded vote, the NEP
adjusted Obama's share of DNV along with the returning voter mix.
Note the following returning voter anomalies in the 2008
NEP:
1) The 46% (60.4m) returning Bush voter share is impossible.
Let’s do the math:
In 2004, Bush had 62.0 million votes (assuming zero election fraud).
Approximately 3m died (1.2% annual mortality) and 56m (95%)
of 59m living turned out in 2008.
But what if Kerry in 2004 won by 52-47% (the unadjusted exit
poll) and Bush had 57.5m votes?
Then approximately 51m (living) Bush voters returned to vote
in 2008.
The 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by approximately 9 million.
2) The 4% (5.2m) third-party 2004 returning voter share is absolutely
impossible.
This one is easy. No
math required.
There were only 1.2m
third-party voters in 2004.
The 4 million phantom returning third-party voters appear to be the 4m missing DNV voters (see above).
Tables 5-8 summarize the True Vote calculations.
Table 5: Final
November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before and after undecided voter
allocation (UVA).
Table 6: Obama’s 56.2% (18.3m margin) is the sum of his DNV
and LV shares (50% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.
Table 7: Obama’s 57.0% (20.5m margin) is the sum of his DNV
and LV shares (75% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.
Table 8: Election
Calculator True Vote based on 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares and plausible
95% turnout of returning 2004 election voters.
Scenario 1. Obama’s
55.2% (15.8m.margin) is based on the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry
48.3%).
Scenario 2. Obama’s
57.5% (21.8m margin) is based on the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry
52.0-Bush 47.0%).
Note:
1. Obama’s pre-election registered voter (RV) share was
57.0% (75% UVA), exactly matching the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA).
2. In 2000 there were 5.4 million uncounted ballots; 3.4
million in 2004. Since 70-80% are
Democratic, Obama’s True Vote share is 1-2% higher.
Table 1
2008 National Exit Poll
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 13% 17.08 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37% 48.61 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
Bush 46% 60.43 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 4% 5.25 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Margin 9.33
Table 2
NEP First time voted?
Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
Yes 14.45 11% 69% 30% 1%
No 116.92 89% 50% 48% 2%
Total 131.37 100% 52.1% 46.0% 1.9%
Table 3
National Exit Poll DNV (13.0%) shares
Share Votes
DNV Mix Obama McCain Other
11% 14.45 New 84.6% 69% 30% 1%
2% 2.63 Prior 15.4% 82% 13% 5%
13% 17.08 Total 100% 71.0% 27.4% 1.6%
Table 4
Calculated DNV (15.8%) shares
Share Votes DNV Mix Obama McCain Other
11.0% 14.45 New 69.6% 69% 30% 1%
4.80% 6.31 Prior 30.4% 82% 13% 5%
15.8% 20.76 Total 100% 73.0% 24.8% 2.2%
Table
5
Final
November Pre-election Polls
LV (9) 51.00% 43.56% 1.50% 3.94%
RV (3) 52.33% 40.00% 1.50% 6.17%
Table 6
Poll Obama
McCain Other
LV 52.97% 45.53% 1.50%
RV 55.41% 43.09% 1.50%
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.76 73.0% 24.8% 2.2% 15.14 5.15 0.46
Return 84.20% 110.61 53.0% 45.5% 1.5% 58.63 50.33 1.66
Total 100% 131.37 56.2% 42.2% 1.6% 73.77 55.48 2.12
Margin 18.28
Table 7:
Undecided voter allocation:
Obama 75%; McCain 25%
Poll Obama
McCain Other
UVA 75% 25%
LV 53.96% 44.55% 1.50%
RV 56.96% 41.55% 1.50%
True
Vote based on Obama’s 73% share of DNV and 54% share of returning (LV) voters
(assumes Obama wins 75% of
undecided voters)
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 15.80% 20.76 73.0% 24.8% 2.2% 15.14 5.15 0.46
Return 84.20% 110.61 54.0% 44.5% 1.5% 59.73 49.22 1.66
True Vote 100% 131.37 57.0% 41.4% 1.6% 74.87 54.38 2.12
Margin 20.50
Table
8
Election
Calculator Model: plausible returning voter mix
(assume
4.8% mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Actual ExitPoll Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 NEP/Voted NEP/Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 59.03 2.83 56.20 95% 53.39 91.0% 86.5%
Bush 50.73% 47.0 62.04 2.98 59.06 95% 56.11 107.7% 102.3%
Other 1.00% 1.0% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 40.6% 53.39 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 42.7% 56.11 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Margin 15.84
2004 Actual ExitPoll Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 NEP/Voted NEP/Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 63.60 3.05 60.54 95% 57.52 84.5% 80.3%
Bush 50.73% 47.0% 57.48 2.76 54.72 95% 51.99 116.2% 110.4%
Other 1.00% 1.0% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 43.8% 57.52 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 39.6% 51.99 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Margin 21.82