A Trifecta of 2008 National Exit Poll Anomalies: New, former Bush and third-party voters

 

TruthIsAll

 

Jan. 30, 2009

 

Apparently, adjusting the returning Bush/Kerry voter mix to an impossible 46/37% was not enough to force the 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP) to match the recorded vote. Exit pollsters also had to adjust Obama's share of new voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2004) from 73% to 71%. Add this anomaly to the impossible mix of returning Bush and third-party voters and we have hit the 2008 Election Fraud Trifecta. The Obama True Vote Landslide was denied.

 

 It makes sense to adjust the returning voter mix AND the vote shares to get the match. Adjusting the mix or the shares (but not both) would have been too obvious; that would force exit poll deniers to jump through even smaller hoops to explain the numbers. On the other hand, a combination of changes to the returning voter mix as well as the vote shares minimizes the radical surgery required to force the National Exit Poll to match to the recorded vote.

 

This sleight of hand also occurred in 2004. The Final 2004 NEP had to change the 12:22am Bush/Gore returning voter mix from 41/39% to an impossible 43/37% while reducing Kerry's share of new voters from 57% to 54%.

 

According to the 2008 National Exit Poll (Table 1):

1) 13% (17m) of the 131.37m recorded did not vote (DNV) in 2004.

2) Of the 13%, 11% were first-time voters and 2% voted prior to 2004.

3) Obama won DNV by 71-27%.

4) Obama won first-time voters by 69-30% (Table 2).

5) A simple calculation indicates that he won the other 2% by 82-13% (Table 3).

 

But there had to be more than 17m DNV in 2004. Here's why:

In 2004, there were 122.3 million recorded votes.

Approximately 6 million died (1.2% annual voter mortality.

Approximately 95% (110m) of the 116m still living returned to vote in 2008.

Therefore, 21m (16%) of the 131.37m recorded were new voters (DNV in 2004).

 

Assume that the 11% first-time voter stat (14.5m) is correct.

Then the remaining 6.5m (5%) were prior voters who did not vote in 2004.

 

Applying vote shares to the 21m (11% first-time and 4.8% prior) voters (Table 4):

Obama's share of DNV is 73%, not the 71% reported in the NEP.

Apparently, in order to match the recorded vote, the NEP adjusted Obama's share of DNV along with the returning voter mix.

 

Note the following returning voter anomalies in the 2008 NEP:

1) The 46% (60.4m) returning Bush voter share is impossible.

Let’s do the math:

In 2004, Bush had 62.0 million votes (assuming zero election fraud).

Approximately 3m died (1.2% annual mortality) and 56m (95%) of 59m living turned out in 2008.

 

But what if Kerry in 2004 won by 52-47% (the unadjusted exit poll) and Bush had 57.5m votes?

Then approximately 51m (living) Bush voters returned to vote in 2008.

The 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by approximately 9 million.

 

2) The 4% (5.2m) third-party 2004 returning voter share is absolutely impossible.

 This one is easy. No math required.

 There were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004.

The 4 million phantom returning third-party voters appear to be the 4m missing DNV voters (see above).

 

Tables 5-8 summarize the True Vote calculations.

 

Table 5:  Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before and after undecided voter allocation (UVA).

 

Table 6: Obama’s 56.2% (18.3m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares (50% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.

Table 7: Obama’s 57.0% (20.5m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.

 

Table 8:  Election Calculator True Vote based on 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares and plausible 95% turnout of returning 2004 election voters.

Scenario 1. Obama’s  55.2% (15.8m.margin) is based on the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%).

Scenario 2. Obama’s  57.5% (21.8m margin) is based on the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%).

 

Note:

1. Obama’s pre-election registered voter (RV) share was 57.0% (75% UVA), exactly matching the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA).

2. In 2000 there were 5.4 million uncounted ballots; 3.4 million in 2004.  Since 70-80% are Democratic, Obama’s True Vote share is 1-2% higher.

 

Table 1

2008 National Exit Poll                                    

 

2004   Mix    Voted  Obama  McCain Other  Obama  McCain Other

DNV    13%    17.08  71%    27%    2%     12.13  4.61   0.34

Kerry  37%    48.61  89%    9%     2%     43.26  4.37   0.97

Bush   46%    60.43  17%    82%    1%     10.27  49.55  0.60

Other  4%     5.25   66%    24%    10%    3.47   1.26   0.53

 

Total  100%   131.37 52.6%  45.5%  1.9%   69.13  59.80  2.44

                                  Margin 9.33         

 

Table 2

NEP First time voted?

 

         Voted      Mix    Obama    McCain   Other

Yes     14.45      11%    69%      30%      1%

No      116.92      89%    50%      48%      2%

 

Total   131.37      100%   52.1%    46.0%    1.9%

 

 

Table 3

National Exit Poll DNV (13.0%) shares

 

Share Votes   DNV    Mix    Obama  McCain Other

11%   14.45   New    84.6%  69%    30%    1%

2%     2.63   Prior  15.4%  82%    13%    5%

 

13%    17.08  Total  100%   71.0%  27.4%  1.6%

 

 

Table 4

Calculated DNV (15.8%) shares  

 

Share  Votes   DNV   Mix    Obama  McCain Other

11.0%  14.45   New   69.6%  69%    30%    1%

4.80%  6.31    Prior 30.4%  82%    13%    5%

 

15.8%  20.76   Total 100%   73.0%  24.8%  2.2%

 

 

Table 5

Final November Pre-election Polls        

 
Poll    Obama    McCain   Other  Undecided

LV (9)  51.00%   43.56%   1.50%  3.94%

RV (3)  52.33%   40.00%   1.50%  6.17%

                                                                                    

 

Table 6

Undecided voter allocation: Obama 50%; McCain 50%

 

Poll    Obama  McCain Other

LV      52.97% 45.53% 1.50%

RV      55.41% 43.09% 1.50%

 

2004     Mix       Voted   Obama    McCain     Other    Obama    McCain   Other

New      15.80%    20.76   73.0%    24.8%      2.2%     15.14    5.15     0.46

Return   84.20%    110.61  53.0%    45.5%      1.5%     58.63    50.33    1.66

 

Total    100%      131.37  56.2%    42.2%      1.6%     73.77    55.48    2.12

                                          Margin   18.28           

 

Table 7:

Undecided voter allocation: Obama 75%; McCain 25%

 

Poll    Obama  McCain Other

UVA       75%   25%

LV      53.96% 44.55% 1.50%

RV      56.96% 41.55% 1.50%

                 

True Vote based on Obama’s 73% share of DNV and 54% share of returning (LV) voters

(assumes Obama wins 75% of undecided voters)

2004     Mix       Voted   Obama    McCain     Other    Obama    McCain   Other

DNV      15.80%    20.76   73.0%    24.8%      2.2%     15.14    5.15     0.46

Return   84.20%    110.61  54.0%    44.5%      1.5%     59.73    49.22    1.66

 

True Vote 100%     131.37  57.0%    41.4%      1.6%     74.87    54.38    2.12

                                          Margin   20.50

      

Table 8

Election Calculator Model: plausible returning voter mix

(assume 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout)

 

Scenario 1: Returning voters based on 2004 recorded vote

 

2004       Actual   ExitPoll  Voted     Died        Alive    Turnout  Voted08   NEP/Voted NEP/Alive

Kerry      48.27%   52.0%     59.03     2.83        56.20    95%      53.39     91.0%    86.5%

Bush       50.73%   47.0      62.04     2.98        59.06    95%      56.11     107.7%   102.3%

Other      1.00%    1.0%      1.22      0.06        1.16     95%      1.11      475.1%   451.3%

 

Total      100.0%   100.0%    122.30    5.87        116.43   95%      110.61    118.8%   112.8%

                                                                            

 

Turnout    2004     Mix      Voted     Obama       McCain   Other    Obama     McCain   Other

           New      15.8%    20.76     71%         27%      2%       14.74     5.61     0.42

95%        Kerry    40.6%    53.39     89%         9%       2%       47.52     4.81     1.07

95%        Bush     42.7%    56.11     17%         82%      1%       9.54      46.01    0.56

95%        Other    0.8%     1.11      66%         24%      10%      0.73      0.27     0.11

 

         Total    100.0%   131.37    55.21%      43.15%   1.64%    72.53     56.69    2.15

                                                    Margin   15.84                           

                                                                                                                                                          

Scenario 2: Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll

 

2004       Actual   ExitPoll  Voted     Died        Alive    Turnout  Voted08   NEP/Voted NEP/Alive

Kerry      48.27%   52.0%     63.60     3.05        60.54    95%      57.52     84.5%    80.3%

Bush       50.73%   47.0%     57.48     2.76        54.72    95%      51.99     116.2%   110.4%

Other      1.00%    1.0%      1.22      0.06        1.16     95%      1.11      475.1%   451.3%

 

Total      100.0%   100.0%    122.30    5.87        116.43   95%      110.61    118.8%   112.8%

                                                                            

Turnout    2004     Mix        Voted   Obama    McCain   Other     Obama      McCain   Other

           New      15.8%      20.76   71%      27%      2%        14.74      5.61     0.42

95%        Kerry    43.8%      57.52   89%      9%       2%        51.19      5.18     1.15

95%        Bush     39.6%      51.99   17%      82%      1%        8.84       42.63    0.52

95%        Other    0.8%       1.11    66%      24%      10%       0.73       0.27     0.11

 

         Total    100.0%     131.37  57.47%   40.86%   1.67%     75.50      53.68    2.20

                                                  Margin    21.82