2008 Landslide Denied: A Summary of Statistical Anomalies

 

TruthIsAll

 

March 24, 2009

 

An analysis based on returning 2004 voters and the Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares indicates that Obama more than doubled his recorded 9.46m vote margin. The recorded vote does not represent the True Vote. This analysis will focus on the statistical evidence of 2008 election fraud.

 

Election bloggers and media pundits won’t discuss the following anomalies that have occurred in all elections since 2000:

1)      Likely voter  (LV) vs. Registered voter (RV) polls: The average LV poll understated Obama’s RV poll margin by 4%.

2)      Final pre-election polls: Undecided voters are not allocated; Obama’s projected margin was reduced 2%.

3)      Final National Exit Poll: An impossible returning voter mix reduced Obama’s True Vote by 3-5%.

4)      Battleground State Exit Polls: discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 6 of 15 states for McCain

5)      Late votes: Obama had 52.3% of 121.2m recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of 10m since;

6)      Late 2-party vote shares in battleground states with over 30,000 late votes matched exit polls to within 0.2% - except for MI. 

7)      Uncounted votes (UVA): 70-80% are Democratic (over 50% in minority districts), resulting in a 1-2% reduction in Obama’s True margin.

 

The 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and was close to matching the current popular vote share (52.87-45.62%).  The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1-44.9% share. But the landslide was denied. See 2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll.

 

National Pre-election Polls: Registered (RV) vs. Likely Vote (LV) and Undecided Voters

 

Of the Final 23 polls, 19 were LV and 4 RV. Obama led the LV poll average 50.8-42.7% and the RV average by 52.4-40.3%. Assuming Obama captured 75% of the undecided vote, the RV projection was 56.4-41.6% and the LV was 54.2-43.8%. 

 

Like Kerry, Obama was the de-facto challenger: McCain supported an unpopular incumbent. Typically, 75-90% of the late undecided vote is allocated (UVA) to the challenger, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 22% approval rating.

 

National Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.48

State vs. National correlation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Poll Average

 

          7-Poll Moving Average

 

Projected  Moving Average Vote (60% UVA)

 

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama

McCain

Other

Spread

Obama

McCain

Spread

WinPr

Obama

McCain

Spread

WinPr

 

Research2k

11/02

1100LV

2.95%

51.0

44.0

5.0

7.0

51.6

43.7

7.9

100.0

54.4

45.6

8.8

100.0

 

Gallup

11/02

2847RV

1.84%

52

41

7

11

51.7

43.6

8.1

100.0

54.5

45.5

9.1

100.0

 

Zogby

11/03

1201LV

2.83%

54

43

3

11

51.4

43.9

7.6

100.0

54.3

45.7

8.5

100.0

 

Hotline/FD

11/02

882LV

3.30%

50

45

5

5

51.0

43.9

7.1

99.9

54.1

45.9

8.2

100.0

 

Rasmussen

11/02

3000LV

1.79%

51

46

3

5

51.1

43.6

7.6

99.9

54.3

45.7

8.6

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ABC/WP

11/02

2446RV

1.98%

54

42

4

12

50.9

43.0

7.9

100.0

54.5

45.5

9.1

100.0

 

Battleground

10/30

1000LV

3.10%

49

45

6

4

50.9

42.9

8.0

98.8

54.6

45.4

9.3

99.8

 

Marist

11/03

804LV

3.46%

52

43

5

9

51.0

42.6

8.4

100.0

54.9

45.1

9.7

100.0

 

FOX News

11/03

971LV

3.14%

50

43

7

7

50.3

42.7

7.6

99.9

54.5

45.5

9.0

100.0

 

NBC/WSJ

11/02

1011LV

3.08%

51

43

6

8

50.3

43.0

7.3

100.0

54.3

45.7

8.6

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNN

11/01

1017LV

3.07%

51

43

6

8

50.4

42.0

8.4

100.0

55.0

45.0

9.9

100.0

 

Pew

11/01

2587LV

1.93%

49

42

9

7

50.7

41.7

9.0

99.8

55.3

44.7

10.5

100.0

 

CBS

10/31

1005LV

3.09%

54

41

5

13

51.1

41.3

9.9

100.0

55.7

44.3

11.4

100.0

 

Marist

10/29

543LV

4.21%

50

43

7

7

50.4

41.1

9.3

100.0

55.5

44.5

11.0

100.0

 

FOX News

10/29

924LV

3.22%

47

44

9

3

50.9

40.6

10.3

90.7

56.0

44.0

12.0

98.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Final 23 National polls: Averages and projections

Assume: 2.0% to Other; 75% of undecided voters to Obama

 

Poll Type

Obama

McCain

Spread

BO Proj

JM Proj

LV –19

50.84

42.68

8.16

54.20

43.80

RV -4

52.50

40.25

12.25

56.44

41.56

All –23

51.13

42.26

8.87

54.59

43.41

 

 

Poll

Date

Sample

Obama

McCain

Spread

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Spread

1

Research2k

10/31 - 11/02

1100LV

51

44

7

51.6

43.7

54.0

46.0

54.4

45.6

8.80

2

Gallup

10/31 - 11/02

2847RV

52

41

11

51.7

43.6

56.2

43.8

54.5

45.5

9.09

3

Zogby

11/01 - 11/03

1201LV

54

43

11

51.4

43.9

55.8

44.2

54.3

45.7

8.51

4

Hotline/FD

10/31 - 11/02

882LV

50

45

5

51.0

43.9

53.0

47.0

54.1

45.9

8.17

5

Rasmussen

10/31 - 11/02

3000LV

51

46

5

51.1

43.6

52.8

47.2

54.3

45.7

8.63

6

ABC/WP

10/31 - 11/02

2446RV

54

42

12

50.9

43.0

56.4

43.6

54.5

45.5

9.09

7

Battleground

10/27 - 10/30

1000LV

49

45

4

50.9

42.9

52.6

47.4

54.6

45.4

9.26

8

Marist

11/03 - 11/03

804LV

52

43

9

51.0

42.6

55.0

45.0

54.9

45.1

9.71

9

FOX News

11/02 - 11/03

971LV

50

43

7

50.3

42.7

54.2

45.8

54.5

45.5

8.97

10

NBC/WSJ

11/01 - 11/02

1011LV

51

43

8

50.3

43.0

54.6

45.4

54.3

45.7

8.63

11

CNN

10/30 - 11/01

1017LV

51

43

8

50.4

42.0

54.6

45.4

55.0

45.0

9.94

12

Pew

10/30 - 11/01

2587LV

49

42

7

50.7

41.7

54.4

45.6

55.3

44.7

10.51

13

CBS

10/28 - 10/31

1005LV

54

41

13

51.1

41.3

57.0

43.0

55.7

44.3

11.37

14

Marist

10/29 - 10/29

543LV

50

43

7

50.4

41.1

54.2

45.8

55.5

44.5

10.97

15

FOX News

10/28 - 10/29

924LV

47

44

3

50.9

40.6

52.4

47.6

56.0

44.0

12.00

16

Ipsos

10/23 - 10/27

831LV

50

45

5

51.3

40.3

53.0

47.0

56.3

43.7

12.69

17

Pew

10/23 - 10/26

1325RV

52

36

16

51.6

39.9

59.2

40.8

56.7

43.3

13.43

18

Newsweek

10/22 - 10/23

882LV

53

41

12

51.4

41.3

56.6

43.4

55.8

44.2

11.60

19

CBS/NYT

10/19 - 10/22

771LV

52

39

13

51.0

41.1

57.4

42.6

55.7

44.3

11.43

20

FOX News

10/20 - 10/21

936LV

49

40

9

50.4

41.1

55.6

44.4

55.5

44.5

10.97

21

Pew Resrch

10/16 - 10/19

2382LV

53

39

14

51.0

41.0

57.8

42.2

55.8

44.2

11.60

22

Ipsos

10/16 - 10/20

773LV

50

42

8

50.6

41.3

54.8

45.2

55.5

44.5

10.91

23

NBC/WSJ

10/18 - 10/20

1159RV

52

42

10

51.0

41.4

55.6

44.4

55.5

44.5

11.09

 

 

State recorded vs. final Pre-election polls and vote share projections

 

Obama had a 53.8% projected vote share based on a 75% undecided voter allocation (UVA).

The probability of the 2.1% difference in total margin assumes a 2.0% aggregate margin of error.

The probability of the difference in margin for a state is based on a 3.0% margin of error for the average of the final 2-3 polls.

 

 

 

 

Recorded (mil)

 

Vote share %

 

    Pre-election Poll

 

Projected

 

Proj Margin

Prob.

18-Dec

Total

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Other

Diff

of Diff

WtdAvg

131370

69457

59935

1978

52.87

45.62

1.51

51.29

43.85

53.80

44.69

1.51

1.86

17.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

2100

813

1267

20

38.7

60.3

0.9

36

61

37.5

61.5

0.9

-2.4

21.5%

AK

326

124

194

9

37.9

59.4

2.7

40

58

39.5

57.8

2.7

3.2

14.2%

AZ

2304

1035

1230

39

44.9

53.4

1.7

46

50

47.7

50.6

1.7

5.6

3.1%

AR

1087

422

638

26

38.9

58.7

2.4

44

51

45.9

51.6

2.4

14.1

0.0%

CA

13576

8274

5012

289

61.0

36.9

2.1

60

36

61.4

36.5

2.1

0.9

38.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

2401

1289

1074

39

53.7

44.7

1.6

51

45

52.8

45.6

1.6

-1.8

27.8%

CT

1647

998

629

20

60.6

38.2

1.2

56

35

61.9

37.0

1.2

2.5

20.1%

DE

412

255

152

5

61.9

36.9

1.1

63

33

65.2

33.7

1.1

6.4

1.7%

DC

266

246

17

3

92.5

6.5

1.0

90

9

90.0

9.0

1.0

-4.9

5.2%

FL

8410

4282

4046

83

50.9

48.1

1.0

49

47

51.3

47.8

1.0

0.7

40.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

3932

1844

2049

39

46.9

52.1

1.0

46

49

49.0

50.0

1.0

4.2

8.3%

HI

454

326

121

7

71.8

26.6

1.6

68

27

70.6

27.9

1.6

-2.6

19.9%

ID

657

236

403

18

36.0

61.3

2.7

33

62

34.7

62.6

2.7

-2.5

19.8%

IL

5523

3420

2032

72

61.9

36.8

1.3

60

37

61.3

37.4

1.3

-1.3

33.5%

IN

2753

1374

1346

33

49.9

48.9

1.2

46

48

49.6

49.2

1.2

-0.6

41.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

1537

829

682

26

53.9

44.4

1.7

54

39

58.0

40.3

1.7

8.1

0.3%

KS

1238

515

700

24

41.6

56.5

1.9

39

56

41.3

56.8

1.9

-0.5

42.9%

KY

1828

752

1048

27

41.1

57.4

1.5

41

55

42.9

55.6

1.5

3.5

12.4%

LA

1961

783

1148

29

39.9

58.6

1.5

40

50

46.4

52.1

1.5

12.9

0.0%

ME

731

422

295

14

57.7

40.4

1.9

56

43

55.3

42.8

1.9

-4.8

5.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

2632

1629

960

42

61.9

36.5

1.6

57

38

59.5

38.8

1.6

-4.7

5.7%

MA

3081

1904

1109

68

61.8

36.0

2.2

55

37

59.3

38.4

2.2

-4.9

5.0%

MI

5007

2873

2049

86

57.4

40.9

1.7

53

38

58.5

39.8

1.7

2.2

23.3%

MN

2910

1573

1275

62

54.1

43.8

2.1

53

43

54.4

43.5

2.1

0.7

40.7%

MS

1290

555

725

11

43.0

56.2

0.8

42

53

45.1

54.0

0.8

4.3

8.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

2928

1442

1446

40

49.3

49.4

1.4

47

46

51.2

47.4

1.4

4.0

9.5%

MT

491

232

243

17

47.2

49.4

3.4

48

47

49.2

47.4

3.4

4.1

8.5%

NE

801

333

453

15

41.6

56.5

1.9

37

56

40.8

57.3

1.9

-1.5

30.9%

NV

968

534

413

21

55.1

42.7

2.2

51

44

53.1

44.7

2.2

-4.1

8.6%

NH

711

385

317

10

54.1

44.5

1.4

53

42

55.7

42.9

1.4

3.2

14.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

3876

2215

1613

48

57.2

41.6

1.2

55

38

59.3

39.4

1.2

4.3

7.5%

NM

830

472

347

11

56.9

41.8

1.3

53

45

53.5

45.2

1.3

-6.8

1.2%

NY

7595

4770

2742

83

62.8

36.1

1.1

64

31

66.9

32.0

1.1

8.3

0.3%

NC

4311

2143

2128

40

49.7

49.4

0.9

49

48

50.6

48.5

0.9

1.7

28.6%

ND

318

141

169

8

44.5

53.1

2.5

46

47

49.4

48.1

2.5

9.9

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

5710

2933

2674

102

51.4

46.8

1.8

51

45

52.7

45.6

1.8

2.6

19.6%

OK

1463

502

960

0

34.4

65.6

0.0

34

63

36.3

63.8

0.0

3.8

10.8%

OR

1828

1037

738

52

56.7

40.4

2.9

56

39

57.6

39.5

2.9

1.7

28.1%

PA

6013

3276

2656

81

54.5

44.2

1.3

52

43

54.7

43.9

1.3

0.5

43.3%

RI

470

297

165

8

63.1

35.2

1.7

58

39

59.0

39.3

1.7

-8.3

0.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

1921

862

1035

24

44.9

53.9

1.2

43

53

45.1

53.7

1.2

0.4

45.2%

SD

382

171

203

8

44.7

53.2

2.1

44

53

44.7

53.2

2.1

-0.1

48.2%

TN

2600

1087

1479

33

41.8

56.9

1.3

40

54

43.5

55.2

1.3

3.4

12.8%

TX

8087

3529

4479

79

43.6

55.4

1.0

44

54

44.8

54.3

1.0

2.3

22.7%

UT

956

328

596

32

34.3

62.3

3.4

32

56

38.5

58.2

3.4

8.4

0.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

325

219

99

7

67.5

30.5

2.1

60

36

61.4

36.5

2.1

-12.1

0.0%

VA

3723

1960

1725

39

52.6

46.3

1.0

51

46

52.5

46.5

1.0

-0.3

45.8%

WA

3049

1751

1229

69

57.4

40.3

2.3

54

39

57.6

40.2

2.3

0.3

46.5%

WV

715

304

398

13

42.6

55.7

1.8

42

50

46.7

51.6

1.8

8.3

0.3%

WI

2983

1677

1262

44

56.2

42.3

1.5

54

40

57.4

41.1

1.5

2.4

21.7%

WY

255

83

165

7

32.5

64.8

2.7

35

58

38.2

59.1

2.7

11.4

0.0%

 

 

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll: impossible number of returning Bush and Other voters

 

Implied

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

17.08

13%

71%

27%

2%

12.1

4.6

0.3

42.5%

Kerry

48.61

37%

89%

9%

2%

43.3

4.4

1.0

52.9%

Bush

60.43

46%

17%

82%

1%

10.3

49.6

0.6

4.6%

Other

5.25

4%

66%

24%

10%

3.5

1.3

0.5

114.3

Total

131.37

100%

52.62%

45.52%

1.86%

69.13

59.80

2.44

 

 

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll  is always forced to match the recorded vote and indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37m voters in 2008. Bush won by an official 62.0-59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died. therefore at most 59.0m Bush voters retuned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did not vote (95% turnout), the Final indicates there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted. The returning voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%. But the actual recorded vote was 50.73-48.27%

 

The Final indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004.  . How could there have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters when Bush won by just 3.0 million? One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain. 

 

The Final indicates that other (third-party) 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the total).

 

If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m).  Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in 2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.

 

The 2008 Final NEP is impossible. And because it was forced to match the recorded vote, the 2008 recorded vote must also have been impossible.

 

The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. In  2004 the Final reported a 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix of the 2004 electorate.  The Bush 43% share was mathematically and physically impossible since it implied that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000 but he had 50.5m, of whom approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. The 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.

 

 

The Post-election 2008 Election Calculator – two scenarios

 

The Election Calculator used  Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP return voter mix.

 

The assumptions were the following:

 2004: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74% based on Census data), 4.8% mortality (table)

Turnout:  97% of living 2004 voters in 2008 (based on best estimates of 2008 votes cast and returning 2004 voters)

Uncounted votes in 2008: 3% of total votes cast  (estimated)

 

The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73 - Kerry 48.27%) as the basis for the returning voter mix.

Obama won by 16.8 million votes – a 7.3 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52 - Bush 47%) as the basis for the mix.

Obama won by 21.9 million - a 12.4 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

Scenario 1 (implausible):  returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote.

Obama wins by 16.81m: 75.01-58.20 (55.38-42.98%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

Calculated Vote

 

 

2004

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

19.42

14.34%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

59.03

2.58

61.61

2.96

58.65

96.9%

56.85

42.0%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

62.04

0.83

62.87

3.02

59.85

96.9%

58.01

42.8%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

96.9%

1.16

0.86%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

116.0

135.43

100%

55.38%

42.98%

1.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.43

75.01

58.20

2.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.37

69.46

59.94

1.98

 

Scenario 2 (plausible):  returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares.

a) Obama wins by 21.86m: 77.52-55.66 (57.2-41.08%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

Calculated Vote

 

 

2004

Exit Poll

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

19.42

14.34%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

63.59

1.79

65.38

3.14

62.25

96.9%

60.33

44.5%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

57.47

1.62

59.09

2.84

56.26

96.9%

54.52

40.3%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

96.9%

1.16

0.86%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

116.0

135.43

100%

57.24%

41.10%

1.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.43

77.52

55.66

2.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.37

69.46

59.94

1.98

 

 

 

Battleground Exit Poll Discrepancies and Late votes: 6 of 15 states beyond the margin of error

 

Obama had a 54.08% aggregate share in the unadjusted, preliminary exit polls of 15 battleground states.

His recorded aggregate share is 52.16% in the 15 states.

The 2.0% state exit poll MoE was exceeded in 6 states in favor of McCain: FL, MI, MN, MO, OH and PA.

 

Probabilities of the unadjusted exit poll discrepancies

 

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least 6 of 15 states in favor of McCain is 1 in 994,000.

The probability is calculated by the Excel binomial distribution function: = 1– BINOMDIST (5, 15, .025, true)

(.025 is the probability that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE for McCain in any given state)

 

Obama’s 2-party recorded vote share in the 15 states is 52.91%; the corresponding exit poll share is 54.81%.

The probability of the discrepancy is calculated in Excel:

Prob  = 0.65% = NORMDIST (.5291, .5482, .015/1.96, true)

An aggregate 1.5% MoE is assumed.

 

Exit Poll

 

 

Recorded

 

   Unadj. Exit Poll

 Margin

EP Diff

Prob of

      Obama 2-party

 

States

Late Votes

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Difference

 Exceeds

Difference

Exit Poll

Late Vote

Exit-Late

 

(thousands)

52.2

46.4

1.4

54.1

44.6

3.9

 MoE?

0.65%

54.1

60.4

(6.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FL

405

50.9

48.1

1

52

44

5.2

yes

0.4%

54.2

54.7

(0.5)

GA

91

46.9

52.1

1

47

51

1.2

 

28.3%

48.0

55.0

(7.0)

IN

15

49.9

48.9

1.2

52

48

3

 

7.0%

52.0

59.8

(7.8)

IA

13

53.9

44.4

1.7

52

48

-5.3

yes

0.4%

52.0

70.3

(18.3)

MI

120

57.4

40.9

1.7

60

39

4.5

yes

1.4%

60.6

89.8

(29.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MN

1.6

54.1

43.8

2.1

60

39

10.8

yes

0.0%

60.6

71.3

(10.7)

MO

10

49.3

49.4

1.4

52

48

4.2

yes

2.0%

52.0

61.7

(9.7)

NV

4

55.1

42.7

2.2

55

45

-2.4

 

9.3%

55.0

54.7

0.3

NH

96

54.1

44.5

1.4

52

44

-1.6

 

24.5%

54.2

52.4

1.8

NM

19

56.9

41.8

1.3

56

43

-1.9

 

17.2%

56.6

69.3

(12.7)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NC

38

49.7

49.4

0.9

52

48

3.7

 

3.6%

52.0

50.6

1.4

OH

500

51.4

46.8

1.8

54

45

5.2

yes

0.5%

54.5

56.2

(1.7)

PA

169

54.5

44.2

1.3

57

42

4.8

yes

0.9%

57.6

57.2

0.4

WV

7

42.6

55.7

1.8

45

55

3.1

 

5.2%

45.0

40.9

4.1

WI

18

56.2

42.3

1.5

58

42

2.1

 

17.3%

58.0

61.5

(3.5)

 

Initial vs. Late Votes: a consistent 10-15% discrepancy in the Democratic margin

 

Dave Leip's Election Atlas indicates that 131.37m votes have been recorded. Obama currently leads by 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%). On Election Day 121.21m votes were recorded and he led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%), a 6.0% margin.  Obama has a 59.16-37.48% share of the 10.16m votes recorded since Election Day, a 21.5% margin. Gore and Kerry had late vote margins that far exceeded their initial margins.

 

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote share is 7% higher than the initial share.

 

Obama’s late vote share increased over his initial Election Day share in 13 of the18 states that had over 100,000 late votes. The states with the largest number of late votes were CA, WA, CT, NY and OH. Oddly, there was no change Obama’s share in CA and WA, the two West Coast states with the largest number of late votes. On the other hand, his late New York share was 8.5% higher, OH 2.9%, CT 2.1%. These states had significant late vote increases in Obama’s share: OR, CO, MD, VA, NJ, IL and MI.

 

Unadjusted exit poll data was downloaded for 15 states. In states with over 30,000 late votes, the 2-party exit poll shares closely matched the late vote shares to within 0.2% - if Michigan is excluded. In MI, Obama had an inexplicable 89.8% of the 120,000 late votes compared to 60.6% in the exit poll.

 

New York State: 2000-2008 Late Votes

 

How does one explain the New York State late vote anomalies in the last three elections? There were 1.56 million late votes compared to 20.1 million on Election Day, a 7.8% increase. The average Democratic late vote share was 70.2%; the Election Day share was 60.0%.

 

New York Late Votes: 2000-2008                                                                           

(in millions)

 

       Late   Dem    Share         Initial Dem   Share

2000   0.483  0.36   74%           6.3    3.78   60%

2004   0.499  0.33   66%           6.8    3.94   58%

2008   0.584  0.41   70.7%         7.0    4.34   62.2

 

Total  1.566  1.10   70.2%         20.1   12.1   60.0%



Late Vote Timeline

 

Obama’s late vote share has increased at a steady 59-61% rate except for the Nov. 21-30 period (53.65%).

On Election Day, 121.2m votes were recorded; Obama led by 52.3-46.3% (53.1% of the 2-party vote).

Obama has 59.2% of the 10.16m late votes, a 15.5% increase in margin.

 

2008          Total    Obama   McCain     Other  Obama  McCain    Other

Nov. 4        121.21   63.44   56.13      1.64   52.34% 46.31%    1.35%

Late          2.93     1.73    1.16       0.03   59.17% 39.66%    1.17%

                                                                  

Nov. 11       124.13   65.18   57.29      1.67   52.50% 46.15%    1.35%

Late          2.37     1.40    0.92       0.05   59.20% 38.73%    2.07%

                                                                  

Nov. 12       126.50   66.58   58.20      1.72   52.63% 46.01%    1.36%

Late          0.75     0.45    0.28       0.02   60.38% 36.71%    2.91%

                                                                  

Nov. 17       127.25   67.03   58.48      1.74   52.68% 45.96%    1.37%

Late          0.86     0.53    0.28       0.05   61.88% 32.54%    5.57%

                                                                  

Nov. 21       128.11   67.56   58.76      1.79   52.74% 45.87%    1.40%

Late          1.09     0.59    0.45       0.06   53.65% 41.23%    5.11%

                                                                  

Nov. 30       129.20   68.15   59.21      1.84   52.75% 45.83%    1.43%

Late          2.17     1.31    0.73       0.13   60.38% 33.50%    6.12%

                                                                  

18-Dec        131.37   69.457  59.935     1.978  52.87% 45.62%    1.51%

                                                                  

Total Late    10.163   6.013   3.809      0.342  59.16% 37.48%    3.36%

                                                                                                                      

 

On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%.

Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin.

There were 3.4m uncounted votes.

                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                      

2004          Total    KERRY   BUSH       OTHER  KERRY  BUSH      OTHER

Initial       116.7    56.40   59.80      0.40   48.32% 51.24%    0.44%

2-party       116.2    56.40   59.80      na     45.53% 51.57%   

                                                                  

Late          5.6      2.60    2.20       0.80   46.90% 39.40%    13.70%

2-party       4.8      2.60    2.20       na     54.20% 45.80%   

                                                                  

Final         122.3    59.03   62.04      1.20   48.27% 50.73%    1.00%

2-party       121.07   59.03   62.04      na     48.76% 51.24%   

                                                                   

 

On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote).

Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin.

There were 5.4m uncounted votes.

                                                                   

2000          Total    GORE    BUSH       OTHER  GORE   BUSH      OTHER

Initial       102.6    49.50   49.30      3.80   48.25% 48.05%    3.70%

2-party       98.8     49.50   49.30      na     50.10% 49.90%   

                                                                  

Late          2.8      1.50    1.20       0.10   53.60% 42.90%    3.50%