July
18, 2010
This simulation model determines the likelihood of the GOP
capturing the Senate based on the latest pollings. The model results
should be a clear warning to the Democrats.
The analysis shows that if a fraud-free election were
held today there would be a net switch of 5-7 senate seats to the GOP and the
Democrats would retain control of the Senate. However, if the GOP steals
Democratic votes in the Tossup states, there could be a net switch of 9-11
senate seats to the GOP and they would likely win or come very close in the
Senate.
Realclearpolitics.com categorizes the 23 Senate races as Tossup (10),
Lean GOP (3), Strong GOP (7), Strong Democratic (3).
A GOP win probability is assigned to the states in each category. The probability is input to a 200-trial Monte Carlo random number generator to determine the likely number of states switching from Democrat to Republican – or vice versa. The tossup states obviously are of most interest in this simple model.
In the 10 Tossup states, a 50% win probability is assigned to the Republican (assumes zero fraud).
In the 3 Strong Democratic states, a 20% win probability is assigned.
In the 3 Lean GOP states, an 80% win base case probability.
In the 7 Strong GOP states, a 100% win probability.
A sensitivity analysis is used to calculate the number of net GOP senate gains assuming
a) Zero fraud (a 50% tossup win probability) and
b) b) incremental fraud resulting in higher GOP win probabilities (51%, 52%, 53%, 54%)
Six simulation sensitivity analyses were executed:
Each simulation consisted of 3000 scenarios (200 trials *5 GOP tossups* 3 Lean GOP) assuming
GOP Tossup state win scenarios 50%, 51%, 52%, 53% and 54%
and 3 GOP Leaning state win scenarios: 70%, 80% and 90%.
Sample
Simulation result (200 election trials)
|
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GOP win |
GOP |
GOP |
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|
10 Toss-up
|
|
|
Win Prob |
Win
Trials |
Net Gain |
|
|
CA |
D |
1 |
50% |
105 |
1 |
|
|
CO |
D |
2 |
|
102 |
1 |
|
|
FL |
R |
3 |
|
95 |
-1 |
|
|
IL |
D |
4 |
|
92 |
0 |
|
|
MO |
R |
5 |
|
97 |
-1 |
|
|
NV |
D |
6 |
|
105 |
1 |
|
|
OH |
R |
7 |
|
87 |
-1 |
|
|
PA |
D |
7 |
|
106 |
1 |
|
|
WA |
D |
8 |
|
95 |
0 |
|
|
WI |
D |
9 |
|
106 |
1 |
|
|
3 Lean GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
KY |
R |
10 |
80% |
160 |
0 |
|
|
NH |
R |
11 |
|
166 |
0 |
|
|
NC |
R |
12 |
|
162 |
0 |
|
|
6 Strong GOP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AZ |
R |
13 |
100% |
200 |
0 |
|
|
AK |
D |
14 |
|
200 |
1 |
|
|
DE |
D |
15 |
|
200 |
1 |
|
|
IN |
D |
16 |
|
200 |
1 |
|
|
IA |
R |
17 |
|
200 |
0 |
|
|
LA |
R |
18 |
|
200 |
0 |
|
|
ND |
D |
19 |
|
200 |
1 |
|
|
3 Strong
Dem |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CT |
D |
20 |
20% |
39 |
0 |
|
|
NY |
D |
21 |
|
49 |
0 |
|
|
OR |
D |
22 |
|
41 |
0 |
|
|
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|
Total |
6 |
|
Simulation
1 |
|
Fraud Scenarios |
||||
|
|
Win Prob
|
|
Win prob: 51-54% increasing fraud
|
|||
|
|
Lean
GOP |
No Fraud |
GOP Win Probability Tossup States |
|||
|
|
|
50% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
54% |
|
|
70% |
6 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
80% |
7 |
5 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
90% |
7 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
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Simulation
2 |
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|
70% |
7 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
80% |
8 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
10 |
|
|
90% |
5 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
|
|
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Simulation
3 |
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|
70% |
9 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
80% |
6 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
90% |
6 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
|
|
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Simulation
4 |
|
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|
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|
|
|
70% |
11 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
80% |
5 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
|
|
90% |
7 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
|
|
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Simulation
5 |
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70% |
8 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
80% |
4 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
90% |
8 |
7 |
6 |
11 |
9 |
|
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Simulation
6 |
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|
|
70% |
8 |
8 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
|
|
80% |
4 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
|
|
90% |
8 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
|
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Simulation
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Average |
70% |
7.6 |
6.8 |
8.2 |
9.4 |
9.4 |
|
|
80% |
5.8 |
7.4 |
8.2 |
8.2 |
10.0 |
|
|
90% |
6.8 |
6.4 |
7.6 |
9.2 |
10.2 |