Bush Approval Ratings
Bush's average Election Day 2004 approval rating was 48.5% (based on 11 national polls). Since 1976, all presidential incumbents with approval below 50% on Election Day have lost their bid for re-election: Ford in ‘76, Carter in ‘80, Bush in ’92. Conversely, all incumbents with greater than 50% approval won re-election: Nixon in ’72, Reagan in ’84, Clinton in ’96. Bush was the only exception in ’04.
There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s 2004 monthly approval rating and the national pre-election poll monthly average. The final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count through the use of inflated Bush approval weightings. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky used 53% for the Bush approval weighting in both the Final National and the Florida exit polls. In the 7:33pm NEP update, Bush approval was 51%. In addition, Bush vote shares were inflated in the Final – just like they were in the “Voted 2000” and “Location-size” categories.
Adjusting Bush approval to his actual 48.5% national average resulted in the following:
In the Florida Exit Poll, Kerry's share increased from 49.4% to 53.3%.
In the National Exit Poll, posted at 7:33pm on Nov.2, Kerry's share increased from 51.2% to 53.2%.
In the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, Kerry's share increased from 48.5% to 52.3%.
2004 Monthly Trend: Bush 11-poll average approval vs. average National
pre-election poll
Poll
Jan Feb
Mar April
May June
July Aug
Sept Oct
Mean
Kerry
40.78 47.80 47.58
46.31 46.86 46.64 47.47
47.40 44.33 47.17
Bush
51.56 46.10 44.83
45.62 44.71 45.71
45.20 45.40 48.28 46.89
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Approval 54.4 49.5
48.8 48.6
45.2 47.0
47.8 48.0
49.1 48.5
Poll/Appr 0.95
0.93
0.92 0.94
0.99 0.97
0.95 0.95
0.98 0.97
2004
Bush ratings
Date
Nwk Fox
CNN Pew
Harris CBS
ABC Time
NBC AP
Zogby Mean
Jan-04
50 58
60 56
na 50
58 54
54 56
49 54.5
Feb-04
48 48
51 48
51 50 50
54 na
47
na 49.7
Mar-04
48 48
49 46
na 51
50 na
50 48
na 48.8
Apr-04
49 50
52 48
48 46 51
49 na
48
47 48.8
May-04
42 48
47 44
na 41
47 46
47 48
42 45.2
Jun-04
na 48
49 48
50 42 47
na 45
48
46 47.0
Jul-04
48 47
47 46
na 45 50
50 48
50
49 48.0
Aug-04
45 51
51 46
48 46 50
51 47
49
44 48.0
Sep-04
48 50
52 46
45 48 50
53 47
54
47 49.1
Oct-04
46 49
46 44
na 49 53
53 49
47
49 48.5
(2,409 respondents)
Bush approval:
53%
Approval Weight
KERRY
BUSH Other
Strong
35.0
4
96 0
Approve
18.0
17
82 1
Disapprove 12.0
84
13 3
Strong
35.0
98
1 1
Total
100.0
48.8
50.3 0.9
Approve
53.0
9 91 0
Disapprove 47.0
95
4 1
Total
100.0
49.4 50.1 0.5
Bush approval:
48.5%
Approval Weight
KERRY
BUSH Other
Strong
30.5
4
96 0
Approve
18.0
17
82 1
Disapprove 14.0
84
13 3
Strong
37.5 98
1 1
Total
100.0
52.8 46.2 1.0
Approve
48.5
9
91 0
Disapprove
51.5
95
4 1
Total
100.0
53.3 46.2 0.5
(5666 respondents)
Bush approval: 51%
Approval
Weight KERRY
BUSH Other
Strong
32
7
93 0
Approve
19
17 80
3
Disapprove 12
81
16 3
Strong
37
97
2 1
Total
100%
51.1%
47.6% 1.3
Approve
51
11
88
1
Disapprove 49
93
5 2
Total
100%
51.2%
47.3%
1.5%
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval
Weight KERRY
BUSH
Other
Strong
30.5%
7% 93%
0
Approve
18
17
80
3
Disapprove 14
81 16
3
Strong
37.5
97
2
1
Total
100% 52.9%
45.8%
1.3%
Approve
48.5
11 88
1
Disapprove
51.5
93
5
2
Total
100%
53.2% 45.3%
1.5%
2004
Final NEP (Matched to vote count)
(6961
respondents)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval
Weight KERRY
BUSH Other
Strong
33%
5%
94% 1%
Approve
20
15
83
2
Disapprove 12
80
18
2
Strong
35
97
2
1
Total
100%
48.2% 50.5%
1.3%
Approve
53
9
90
1
Disapprove 47
93 6
1
Total
100%
48.5% 50.5%
1%
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval
Weight KERRY
BUSH Other
Strong
30.5%
5%
94% 1%
Approve
18
15
83
2
Disapprove 14
80
18
2
Strong
37.5
97
2
1
Total
100%
51.8%
46.9% 1.3%
Approve
48.5
9
90
1
Disapprove
51.5 93
6
1
Total
100%
52.3%
46.7% 1%
