Bush Approval Ratings

 

Bush's average Election Day 2004 approval rating was 48.5% (based on 11 national polls). Since 1976, all presidential incumbents with approval below 50% on Election Day have lost their bid for re-election: Ford in ‘76, Carter in ‘80, Bush in ’92. Conversely, all incumbents with greater than 50% approval won re-election: Nixon in ’72, Reagan in ’84, Clinton in ’96. Bush was the only exception in ’04.

 

There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s 2004 monthly approval rating and the national pre-election poll  monthly average. The final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count through the use of inflated Bush approval weightings. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky used 53% for the Bush approval weighting in both the Final National and the Florida exit polls.  In the 7:33pm NEP update, Bush approval was 51%. In addition, Bush vote shares were inflated in the Final – just like they were in the “Voted 2000” and “Location-size” categories.  

 

Adjusting Bush approval to his actual 48.5% national average resulted in the following:

 In the Florida Exit Poll, Kerry's share increased from 49.4% to 53.3%.

In the National Exit Poll, posted at 7:33pm on Nov.2, Kerry's share increased from 51.2% to 53.2%.

 In the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, Kerry's share increased from 48.5% to 52.3%.

 

2004 Monthly Trend: Bush 11-poll average approval vs. average National pre-election poll

 

Poll     Jan      Feb      Mar      April    May      June     July     Aug      Sept     Oct

Mean

Kerry    40.78    47.80    47.58    46.31    46.86    46.64    47.47    47.40    44.33    47.17

Bush     51.56    46.10    44.83    45.62    44.71    45.71    45.20    45.40    48.28    46.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Approval  54.4   49.5     48.8     48.6     45.2     47.0     47.8     48.0     49.1     48.5

Poll/Appr 0.95   0.93     0.92     0.94     0.99     0.97     0.95     0.95     0.98     0.97

 

 

2004 Bush ratings

Date     Nwk      Fox      CNN      Pew      Harris   CBS      ABC      Time     NBC      AP       Zogby      Mean

 

Jan-04   50       58       60       56       na       50       58       54       54       56       49        54.5

Feb-04   48       48       51       48       51       50       50       54       na       47       na        49.7

Mar-04   48       48       49       46       na       51       50       na       50       48       na        48.8

Apr-04   49       50       52       48       48       46       51       49       na       48       47        48.8

May-04   42       48       47       44       na       41       47       46       47       48       42        45.2

 

Jun-04   na       48       49       48       50       42       47       na       45       48       46        47.0

Jul-04   48       47       47       46       na       45       50       50       48       50       49        48.0

Aug-04   45       51       51       46       48       46       50       51       47       49       44        48.0

Sep-04   48       50       52       46       45       48       50       53       47       54       47        49.1

Oct-04   46       49       46       44       na       49       53       53       49       47       49        48.5

 

 

Florida Exit Poll

(2,409 respondents)    

 

Bush approval: 53%                                                        

Approval   Weight       KERRY    BUSH       Other

Strong       35.0         4        96       0

Approve     18.0         17        82       1

Disapprove   12.0        84        13       3

Strong       35.0        98        1        1

 

Total        100.0      48.8       50.3     0.9

 

Approve      53.0          9        91      0

Disapprove   47.0         95        4       1

 

Total        100.0        49.4     50.1     0.5

 

Bush approval: 48.5%                                                     

Approval   Weight        KERRY   BUSH       Other

Strong       30.5         4        96       0

Approve      18.0        17        82       1

Disapprove   14.0        84        13       3

Strong       37.5        98        1        1

 

Total        100.0        52.8     46.2     1.0

 

Approve       48.5        9        91       0

Disapprove    51.5        95       4        1

 

Total        100.0        53.3     46.2     0.5

 

 

 

National Exit Poll (7:33pm)

(5666 respondents)

 

Bush approval: 51%

Approval      Weight   KERRY       BUSH     Other

Strong         32         7        93       0

Approve        19        17        80       3

Disapprove     12        81        16       3

Strong         37        97        2        1

Total          100%     51.1%      47.6%    1.3

 

Approve        51        11        88       1               

Disapprove     49        93        5        2               

Total          100%     51.2%      47.3%    1.5%            

 

 

Bush approval: 48.5%                                                     

Approval      Weight      KERRY   BUSH     Other           

Strong        30.5%       7%      93%      0       

Approve       18          17      80       3       

Disapprove    14          81      16       3       

Strong        37.5        97       2        1               

Total         100%       52.9%   45.8%    1.3%            

 

Approve       48.5        11       88       1               

Disapprove    51.5        93       5        2               

Total          100%       53.2%    45.3%    1.5%            

 

 

 

 

2004 Final NEP (Matched to vote count)

 (6961 respondents)

 

Bush approval: 53%

Approval       Weight   KERRY      BUSH     Other   

Strong         33%       5%        94%      1%      

Approve        20        15        83       2       

Disapprove     12        80        18       2       

Strong         35        97        2        1       

Total          100%      48.2%     50.5%    1.3%            

 

Approve        53         9        90       1       

Disapprove     47        93        6        1       

Total          100%      48.5%     50.5%    1%              

 

 

Bush approval: 48.5%

Approval      Weight   KERRY       BUSH     Other   

Strong        30.5%      5%        94%      1%      

Approve       18         15        83       2       

Disapprove    14         80        18       2       

Strong        37.5       97        2        1       

Total         100%       51.8%     46.9%    1.3%    

 

Approve       48.5        9        90       1       

Disapprove    51.5       93        6        1       

Total         100%       52.3%     46.7%    1%