Did Dukakis win in 1988?

TruthIsAll

May 17, 2009

Millions of votes were uncounted long before the advent of HAVA in 2004 and the installation of unverifiable touch screen voting machines. In both 1984 and 1988 approximately 10 million ballots were never counted. The majority of the uncounted ballots (70-80%) were in heavily Democratic minority districts. As a result, in 1984 and 1988 the Republican margin was inflated by at least 5 million votes. Do the math. And that assumes no vote-switching!

In 2000 there were 5.4m net uncounted votes. In 2004, there were 3.4m. The decline is a positive trend - but now the ballots are stuffed and switched in Cyberspace.

To determine the 1988 True Vote, the first step is to estimate the number of returning 1984 voters. We need to consider total votes cast in each election. In other words, we need to add the net uncounted votes to the recorded totals.

In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million (54.4-37.6m) out of 92 million recorded votes. Approximately 5% of 1984 voters (4.6m) passed on prior to the 1988 election. Of the 87.4m still living in 1988, approximately 51.7m were Reagan voters and 35.7m were for Mondale. The best estimate is that approximately 83 million (95%) returned to vote in 1988, of whom 49.2m were Reagan voters and 33.9m were Mondale voters.

In 1988 Bush defeated Dukakis by 48.9-41.8 million. The Final 1988 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicated that Reagan voters comprised 57% (52.2 million) of the 1988 electorate and Mondale voters just 32% (29.3m). The remaining 11% did not vote in 1984.

According to the Final NEP, there was an impossible 106% (52.2/49.2) turnout - 3 million phantom Reagan voters. Only 51.7m Reagan voters were alive in 1988, of whom an estimated 49.2 (92%) returned in 1988. Tthe Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote using an impossible voter turnout, therefore the official count must also have been impossible.

To estimate the True Vote, we need to consider total votes cast in 1984 and 1988.

According to the Census, approximately 101.9m votes were cast in 1984 and 102.2m in 1988 (0.30% MoE). Assuming that 75% of the 9.9m uncounted votes went to Mondale. Given a 5% voter 4-year mortality rate and 95% turnout, there were 51.3m (50.2%) returning Reagan voters and 40.6m (39.7%) returning Mondale voters. There were 10.2m DNV (first-time voters others who did not vote in 1984).

Applying the Final National Exit Poll vote shares, Dukakis won the election by 51.9-49.1m with 299 electoral votes.

The sensitivity analysis indicates that he wins 274 EV with just 45% of DNV and 18% of returning Reagan voters.

Final National Exit Poll

Unctd Mortality

75% 5.0%

1984 1984 95.0% 95% Voted 1988 NEP NEP Vote Shares

Voted Recorded Alive Turnout /Turnout Recorded Mix Dukakis Bush Other

DNV - - - 10,075 11% 47% 51% 2%

Mondale 37,577 35,698 33,913 86% 29,310 32% 92% 7% 1%

Reagan 54,460 51,737 49,150 106% 52,209 57% 19% 80% 1%

Total 92,037 87,435 83,063 110.3% 91,595 100% 45.44% 53.45% 1.11%

91,595 41,621 48,957 1,017

EP (wpe) 49.8% 49.7% 0.5%

Diff -4.4% 3.7% 0.6%

Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%

91,595 41,809 48,887 899

1988 True Vote Analysis

Turnout of Uncounted share

Cast Recorded Unctd Rate Mortality Mondale Reagan Dukakis Bush Other

1988 102,224 91,595 10,629 10.40% 4.88% 95.0% 95.0% 75% 24% 1%

1984 101,878 92,032 9,846 9.66%

Voted National 299 EV

1984 Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other Total

DNV 9.94% 47% 51% 2% 4,775 5,181 203 10,159

Mondale 39.74% 92% 7% 1% 37,371 2,843 406 40,620

Reagan 50.22% 19% 80% 1% 9,755 41,072 513 51,340

Other 0.10% 50% 50% 0% 52 52 0 104

True Vote 50.82% 48.08% 1.10% 51,952 49,149 1,123 102,224

Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98% 41,809 48,887 899 91,595

Deviation 5.18% -5.29% 0.12% 10,143 262 224 10,629

Exit Poll (WPE) 46.84% 52.18% 0.98% 42,901 47,795 899 91,595

Deviation 3.98% -4.10% 0.12% 9,051 1,353 224 10,629

Sensitivity Analysis

Dukakis % Dukakis National Vote Margin Share of Reagan Mondale Dukakis Electoral Vote Reagan turnout

of DNV Share of Mondale voters 19% %Unctd Mondale voter turnout 95%

2,804 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 299 93% 94% 95% 96% 97%

49% 1,585 2,397 3,210 4,022 4,835 85% 299 299 327 330 336

48% 1,382 2,194 3,007 3,819 4,631 80% 291 299 299 327 327

47% 1,179 1,991 2,803 3,616 4,428 75% 288 288 299 299 299

46% 975 1,788 2,600 3,413 4,225 70% 254 285 288 288 299

45% 772 1,585 2,397 3,209 4,022 65% 247 247 274 285 288

Dukakis % Dukakis National Vote Share Share of Reagan Dukakis % Dukakis Electoral Vote Share of Mondale

of DNV Share of Mondale voters 19% Reagan Share of DNV 92%

50.82% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 299 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%

49% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 21% 330 330 336 336 336

48% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 20% 299 299 308 327 330

47% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 19% 288 291 299 299 299

46% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5% 18% 274 285 285 285 285

45% 49.8% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 17% 242 242 247 247 247

Dukakis % Dukakis National VoteMargin Share of DNV Dukakis % Dukakis Electoral Vote Share of DNV

of Reagan Share of Mondale voters 47% Reagan Share of Mondale voters 47%

2,804 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 299 90% 91% 92% 93% 94%

21% 3,232 4,045 4,857 5,669 6,482 21% 299 330 336 336 336

20% 2,205 3,018 3,830 4,643 5,455 20% 288 299 308 330 336

19% 1,179 1,991 2,803 3,616 4,428 19% 254 285 299 299 327

18% 152 964 1,777 2,589 3,401 18% 225 247 285 291 299

17% (875) (63) 750 1,562 2,375 17% 214 225 247 285 288

Electoral Vote Analysis

1988 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to

Dukakis Bush Margin EV Dukakis Bush Margin EV Dukakis Bush Margin EV Bush

41,809 48,887 -7,077 104 47,879 53,342 (5,462) 205 51,859 49,242 2,616 299 14

45.65% 53.37% -7.73% 46.8% 52.2% -5.3% 50.7% 48.2% 2.6% 195 EV

AL 39.9% 59.2% -19.3% 39.9% 59.2% -19.3% 47.2% 51.7% -4.4%

AK 36.3% 59.6% -23.3% 36.9% 59.0% -22.1% 41.1% 57.8% -16.8%

AZ 38.7% 60.0% -21.2% 38.7% 60.0% -21.2% 42.7% 56.1% -13.4%

AR 42.2% 56.4% -14.2% 41.8% 56.8% -15.0% 48.5% 50.5% -2.0%

CA 47.6% 51.1% -3.6% 49.5% 49.2% 0.2% 55 52.0% 46.9% 5.1% 55 55

CO 45.3% 53.1% -7.8% 46.8% 51.6% -4.8% 47.5% 51.3% -3.8%

CT 46.9% 52.0% -5.1% 49.5% 49.4% 0.1% 7 50.2% 48.7% 1.6% 7 7

DE 43.5% 55.9% -12.4% 44.4% 55.0% -10.6% 49.6% 49.4% 0.2% 3 3

DC 82.6% 14.3% 68.3% 3 82.6% 14.3% 68.3% 3 89.0% 10.0% 79.0% 3

FL 38.5% 60.9% -22.4% 39.7% 59.7% -20.0% 44.1% 54.8% -10.7%

GA 39.5% 59.8% -20.3% 38.6% 60.7% -22.1% 47.6% 51.3% -3.7%

HI 54.3% 44.8% 9.5% 4 54.6% 44.5% 10.1% 4 56.3% 42.6% 13.7% 4

ID 36.0% 62.1% -26.1% 36.0% 62.1% -26.1% 38.3% 60.5% -22.2%

IL 48.6% 50.7% -2.1% 49.9% 49.4% 0.5% 21 53.7% 45.2% 8.5% 21 21

IN 39.7% 59.8% -20.2% 44.3% 55.2% -11.0% 46.8% 52.1% -5.3%

IA 54.7% 44.5% 10.2% 7 55.0% 44.2% 10.8% 7 57.5% 41.4% 16.1% 7

KS 42.6% 55.8% -13.2% 44.4% 54.0% -9.6% 44.9% 54.0% -9.1%

KY 43.9% 55.5% -11.6% 44.4% 55.0% -10.6% 49.5% 49.4% 0.1% 8 8

LA 44.1% 54.3% -10.2% 45.3% 53.1% -7.8% 49.0% 50.0% -1.0%

ME 43.9% 55.3% -11.5% 47.1% 52.1% -5.1% 48.9% 49.9% -1.0%

MD 48.2% 51.1% -2.9% 50.8% 48.5% 2.3% 10 55.4% 43.4% 12.0% 10 10

MA 53.2% 45.4% 7.9% 12 56.6% 42.0% 14.7% 12 58.2% 40.6% 17.6% 12

MI 45.7% 53.6% -7.9% 46.3% 53.0% -6.7% 50.7% 48.2% 2.5% 17 17

MN 52.9% 45.9% 7.0% 10 52.3% 46.5% 5.8% 10 59.0% 39.9% 19.1% 10

MS 39.1% 59.9% -20.8% 39.0% 60.0% -21.0% 46.3% 52.6% -6.3%

MO 47.9% 51.8% -4.0% 48.2% 51.5% -3.4% 51.2% 47.7% 3.5% 11 11

MT 46.2% 52.1% -5.9% 48.4% 49.9% -1.5% 49.8% 49.1% 0.8% 3 3

NE 39.2% 60.2% -21.0% 41.7% 57.7% -16.0% 41.1% 57.8% -16.8%

NV 37.9% 58.9% -20.9% 39.4% 57.4% -17.9% 41.8% 56.9% -15.0%

NH 36.3% 62.5% -26.2% 39.3% 59.5% -20.2% 40.5% 58.3% -17.9%

NJ 42.6% 56.2% -13.6% 44.7% 54.1% -9.4% 48.9% 50.0% -1.0%

NM 46.9% 51.9% -5.0% 50.2% 48.6% 1.6% 5 50.6% 48.3% 2.2% 5 5

NY 51.6% 47.5% 4.1% 31 55.2% 43.9% 11.3% 31 56.3% 42.7% 13.6% 31

NC 41.7% 58.0% -16.3% 41.9% 57.8% -15.9% 47.6% 51.3% -3.7%

ND 43.0% 56.0% -13.1% 43.8% 55.2% -11.5% 45.9% 53.0% -7.2%

OH 44.1% 55.0% -10.9% 44.9% 54.2% -9.3% 50.1% 48.8% 1.4% 20 20

OK 41.3% 57.9% -16.6% 38.5% 60.7% -22.2% 43.2% 55.8% -12.6%

OR 51.3% 46.6% 4.7% 7 55.0% 42.9% 12.1% 7 54.9% 44.1% 10.8% 7

PA 48.4% 50.7% -2.3% 48.8% 50.3% -1.5% 55.4% 43.5% 11.9% 21 21

RI 55.6% 43.9% 11.7% 4 55.5% 44.0% 11.5% 4 59.0% 39.9% 19.1% 4

SC 37.6% 61.5% -23.9% 38.3% 60.8% -22.5% 44.4% 54.5% -10.1%

SD 46.5% 52.8% -6.3% 47.0% 52.3% -5.3% 48.7% 50.2% -1.5%

TN 41.5% 57.9% -16.3% 41.0% 58.4% -17.3% 50.1% 48.9% 1.2% 11 11

TX 43.3% 56.0% -12.6% 42.9% 56.4% -13.4% 47.1% 51.8% -4.7%

UT 32.0% 66.2% -34.2% 32.0% 66.2% -34.2% 35.4% 63.5% -28.1%

VT 47.6% 51.1% -3.5% 50.5% 48.2% 2.3% 3 51.7% 47.1% 4.6% 3 3

VA 39.2% 59.7% -20.5% 38.9% 60.0% -21.1% 46.0% 52.9% -7.0%

WA 50.0% 48.5% 1.6% 11 52.7% 45.8% 7.0% 11 54.1% 44.8% 9.2% 11

WV 52.2% 47.5% 4.7% 5 52.3% 47.4% 4.9% 5 55.8% 43.2% 12.6% 5

WI 51.4% 47.8% 3.6% 10 50.3% 48.9% 1.4% 10 55.7% 43.2% 12.6% 10

WY 38.0% 60.5% -22.5% 37.5% 61.0% -23.5% 40.5% 58.5% -18.0%

Vote Share Analysis

Dukakis Vote shares Dukakis Dukakis

1988 Mondale Reagan Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%

Share 92% 19% 50% 47% 50.73% 45.65% 5.08% 10 46.84% -3.89% 22

Total 37,409 9,687 51 4,712 51,859 41,809 10,049 47,879 3,979

AL 91.0% 16.6% 43.7% 40.3% 47.2% 39.9% 7.4% 39.9% -7.4%

AK 90.4% 15.1% 39.7% 36.1% 41.1% 36.3% 4.8% 36.9% -4.2%

AZ 90.8% 16.1% 42.4% 39.0% 42.7% 38.7% 3.9% 38.7% -3.9%

AR 91.4% 17.6% 46.2% 43.0% 48.5% 42.2% 6.3% 41.8% -6.7%

CA 92.3% 19.8% 52.1% 49.2% 52.0% 47.6% 4.4% 49.5% -2.5% 1

CO 91.9% 18.8% 49.6% 46.6% 47.5% 45.3% 2.2% 1 46.8% -0.7% 1

CT 92.2% 19.5% 51.3% 48.4% 50.2% 46.9% 3.4% 49.5% -0.8% 1

DE 91.6% 18.1% 47.6% 44.5% 49.6% 43.5% 6.1% 44.4% -5.2%

DC 98.5% 34.4% 90.5% 90.0% 89.0% 82.6% 6.4% 82.6% -6.4%

FL 90.7% 16.0% 42.2% 38.7% 44.1% 38.5% 5.6% 39.7% -4.4%

GA 90.9% 16.4% 43.3% 39.9% 47.6% 39.5% 8.1% 38.6% -9.0%

HI 93.5% 22.6% 59.4% 57.0% 56.3% 54.3% 2.0% 1 54.6% -1.7% 1

ID 90.3% 15.0% 39.4% 35.8% 38.3% 36.0% 2.3% 1 36.0% -2.3% 1

IL 92.5% 20.2% 53.2% 50.4% 53.7% 48.6% 5.1% 49.9% -3.8%

IN 91.0% 16.5% 43.5% 40.1% 46.8% 39.7% 7.1% 44.3% -2.5% 1

IA 93.6% 22.8% 59.9% 57.5% 57.5% 54.7% 2.8% 1 55.0% -2.5% 1

KS 91.5% 17.7% 46.6% 43.4% 44.9% 42.6% 2.3% 1 44.4% -0.5% 1

KY 91.7% 18.3% 48.1% 45.0% 49.5% 43.9% 5.6% 44.4% -5.1%

LA 91.7% 18.3% 48.3% 45.2% 49.0% 44.1% 4.9% 45.3% -3.7%

ME 91.7% 18.3% 48.1% 45.0% 48.9% 43.9% 5.1% 47.1% -1.9% 1

MD 92.4% 20.1% 52.8% 50.0% 55.4% 48.2% 7.2% 50.8% -4.6%

MA 93.3% 22.2% 58.3% 55.8% 58.2% 53.2% 5.0% 56.6% -1.6% 1

MI 92.0% 19.0% 50.0% 47.0% 50.7% 45.7% 5.0% 46.3% -4.4%

MN 93.3% 22.0% 58.0% 55.4% 59.0% 52.9% 6.1% 52.3% -6.7%

MS 90.8% 16.3% 42.8% 39.4% 46.3% 39.1% 7.2% 39.0% -7.3%

MO 92.4% 19.9% 52.4% 49.6% 51.2% 47.9% 3.4% 48.2% -3.1%

MT 92.1% 19.2% 50.6% 47.6% 49.8% 46.2% 3.6% 48.4% -1.4% 1

NE 90.9% 16.3% 42.9% 39.5% 41.1% 39.2% 1.9% 1 41.7% 0.6% 1

NV 90.6% 15.8% 41.5% 38.0% 41.8% 37.9% 3.9% 39.4% -2.4% 1

NH 90.4% 15.1% 39.8% 36.2% 40.5% 36.3% 4.1% 39.3% -1.1% 1

NJ 91.5% 17.7% 46.7% 43.5% 48.9% 42.6% 6.4% 44.7% -4.3%

NM 92.2% 19.5% 51.4% 48.5% 50.6% 46.9% 3.7% 50.2% -0.4% 1

NY 93.0% 21.5% 56.5% 53.9% 56.3% 51.6% 4.7% 55.2% -1.1% 1

NC 91.3% 17.4% 45.7% 42.4% 47.6% 41.7% 5.9% 41.9% -5.7%

ND 91.5% 17.9% 47.1% 43.9% 45.9% 43.0% 2.9% 1 43.8% -2.1% 1

OH 91.7% 18.4% 48.4% 45.3% 50.1% 44.1% 6.0% 44.9% -5.2%

OK 91.2% 17.2% 45.2% 41.9% 43.2% 41.3% 1.9% 1 38.5% -4.7%

OR 93.0% 21.3% 56.2% 53.5% 54.9% 51.3% 3.6% 55.0% 0.1% 1

PA 92.5% 20.1% 53.0% 50.2% 55.4% 48.4% 7.0% 48.8% -6.6%

RI 93.8% 23.2% 60.9% 58.6% 59.0% 55.6% 3.4% 55.5% -3.5%

SC 90.6% 15.6% 41.2% 37.6% 44.4% 37.6% 6.8% 38.3% -6.1%

SD 92.2% 19.4% 50.9% 48.0% 48.7% 46.5% 2.2% 1 47.0% -1.7% 1

TN 91.3% 17.3% 45.5% 42.2% 50.1% 41.5% 8.5% 41.0% -9.0%

TX 91.6% 18.0% 47.5% 44.3% 47.1% 43.3% 3.8% 42.9% -4.2%

UT 89.6% 13.3% 35.1% 31.2% 35.4% 32.0% 3.3% 32.0% -3.3%

VT 92.3% 19.8% 52.1% 49.2% 51.7% 47.6% 4.2% 50.5% -1.3% 1

VA 90.9% 16.3% 43.0% 39.6% 46.0% 39.2% 6.7% 38.9% -7.0%

WA 92.8% 20.8% 54.8% 52.1% 54.1% 50.0% 4.0% 52.7% -1.3% 1

WV 93.1% 21.7% 57.2% 54.6% 55.8% 52.2% 3.6% 52.3% -3.5%

WI 93.0% 21.4% 56.3% 53.7% 55.7% 51.4% 4.3% 50.3% -5.4%

WY 90.7% 15.8% 41.6% 38.1% 40.5% 38.0% 2.5% 1 37.5% -3.0% 1