The Election Calculator

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Dec. 12, 2010

The Election Calculator is a compact, powerful Excel workbook model for calculating the True Vote for presidential elections from 1988 to 2008. It is also a depository for election and exit poll data.

For example, to calculate the True 2004 vote, click the "2004" tab. Enter data assumptions (or use the pre-set defaults) for the current and prior election: uncounted votes, voter mortality. The defaults are based on Census and mortality tables and a best estimate turnout of 2000 voters. The 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares were assumed.

The number of returning voters from the prior election is based on user input assumptions. According to the Census, there were 5.4 million uncounted (net of stuffed) votes out of 110.8 million votes cast I 2000. The Census estimated that 125.74m votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m, so approximately 3.44m (2.74% of 125.74m) were uncounted (net of stuffed).

Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results. The Calculator is an unbiased number-cruncher. It automatically calculates Democratic vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis"). Those who believe that Bush won should present a matching recorded vote share scenario using plausible assumptions.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can’t prove that fraud occurred. But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval. Twenty-nine states deviated from the exit poll to recorded vote beyond the margin of error – a virtually impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the election by 51-48% with a 1% margin of error. The probabilities were a compelling circumstantial case for fraud and were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc.

But the Smoking Gun was the Final National Exit Poll. The Final is always forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the mix of returning voters and./or the vote shares. In 2004, the exit pollsters had to force the returning voter mix to a 43% Bush / 37% Gore share of the 122.3 million votes recorded. But this was impossible: 43% of the 122.3 million votes recorded is 52.57 million – but Bush only had 50.456 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died (1.25% annual voter mortality). Therefore, assuming an impossible 100% turnout, there were at most 48 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But let’s be realistic and assume the “habitual voter” 96-98% turnout: of the 48 million still living, 46-47 million voted. Therefore, there had to be 5.5 to 6.5 million phantom Bush voters (52.6 – 46.5).

The Final National Exit Poll is the Smoking Gun: It’s mathematically impossible, therefore so is the recorded vote that it was forced to match.

It’s all in my book: Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll.

Democrats always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than in the final, which is always matched to the recorded vote count. Millions of votes have been uncounted in every election - and 70-80% of them are Democratic. Uncounted votes are an obvious component of the discrepancy between preliminary and the final exit polls. The other is vote-switching at the voting machine and the central vote tabulators.

In every presidential election, a percentage of

1) total votes cast are uncounted,

2) prior election voters have died,

3) prior election voters did not vote.

Given these percentages, we calculate/estimate:

a) Uncounted vote rate: percentage difference between the Census estimate of total votes cast and the recorded vote.

b) Voter Mortality rate: weighted average rate for National Exit Poll age groups over 18.

c) Voter Turnout: percentage estimate of returning voters from the prior election.

d) New (DNV) voters: difference between total votes cast and returning voters from the prior election.

e) Vote Shares: of returning and new voters (National Exit Poll is the base case estimate).

In summary, these are the steps to determine an approximation of the True Vote:

1) Based on a,b,c above, adjust the prior recorded vote to determine the number of returning voters.

2) Estimate each candidate's share of returning and new voters.

3) Calculate the True vote.

Default data input assumptions:

To simplify data entry into the Calculator, all inputs are pre-set to default values.

The default values can be overridden. The goal of the model is to enable the user to ask "what-if" the assumptions change.

Sensitivity Analysis:

Two tables display the effects of various input assumption scenarios on the national vote.

The first is based on the uncounted vote share in the prior election and the percent turnout of returning voters.

The second is based on the vote shares of new and returning voters.

Notes:

1) For the 2004 election, the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares are the defaults.

2) Final NEP vote shares are "adjusted" to force a match to the recorded vote (a fraud-free election is assumed).

3) According to the 2004 Census, 125.7m total votes were cast; 122.3m were recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) were uncounted.

4) The U.S. total mortality rate was 0.87% in 2000; estimated voter mortality was 1.22%.

Worksheets

Summary calculations: 1988-2008

True Vote Calculation: 1988-2008

State True Vote: OH CT NY PA CA NJ FL OR

States08: 2008 pre-election and exit polls

NEP0408: 2004 vs. 2008 National Exit Poll

2004Exit: State exit poll timeline

Machine: 2004 State recorded vote by Voting Method

Final5m: Final (late) 2004 recorded vote

HistNEP: Historical Final National Exit Poll (1972-2004)

HistWPE: 1988-2008 recorded state vote/wpe

Mortality: Voter mortality by age group

Turnout: 1988-2008 prior election living voter turnout required to match new voters

Census: Voting data from 1968-2008

Pre and post election summary

Links

Preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll

(13047 respondents, 12:22am)

This was the final adjusted update to the unadjusted National Exit Poll. It was already in the process of being forced to match the recorded vote. Therefore, the 41/39% Bush/Gore voter mix and the vote shares combined to understate Kerry’s True Vote share.

Kerry’s 7.4 million vote margin was conservative, since the Preliminary assumes 104.6% returning Bush 3000 voter turnout.

National	2000	2000		2004	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	57%	41%	2%	13,765	9,903	482	-
Gore	55,732	51,004	48,454	47,694	39%	91%	8%	1%	43,211	3,800	473	98.4%
Bush	51,081	50,460	47,937	50,140	41%	10%	90%	0%	4,698	42,281	0	104.6%
Other	4,160	3,953	3,756	3,688	3%	64%	17%	19%	2,356	626	699	98.2%
Recorded	110,973	105,417	100,147	122,294	337 EV	51.20%	47.50%	1.30%	64,030	56,609	1,654	101.4%

Final 2004 National Exit Poll

(13660 respondents -forced to match the recorded vote)

Just 613 additional exit poll respondents (a 4.7% increase) resulted in a Kerry vote share decline from 51.20% to 48.48%! The exit pollsters did a series of impossible adjustments in the Bush/Gore return voter mix and the respective vote shares. The 43/37% Bush Gore returning voter share of the 2004 electorate was impossible. It indicated that there were 52.59 million returning Bush voters. But Bush only had 50.46 million votes in 2000. The Final required a 110% Bush voter turnout in order to match the recorded vote!

Bush won by a bogus 3.0 million recorded votes.

	2000	2000		2004	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	54%	45%	1%	11,227	9,355	208	-
Gore	53,959	51,004	48,454	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%	40,724	4,525	0	93.4%
Bush	52,854	50,460	47,937	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%	4,733	47,853	0	109.7%
Other	4,160	3,953	3,756	3,669	3%	71%	8%	21%	2,605	294	770	97.6%
NEP	110,973	105,417	100,147	122,294		48.48%	50.72%	0.80%	59,288	62,027	978	101%
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252 EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224	122,294
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	0.21%	-0.01%	-0.20%	259	(13)	(246)
Cast	50.34%	46.06%	3.60%	Exit Poll	338 EV	51.97%	47.02%	1.00%	63,492	57,576	1,225	122,294
Exit Poll	49.39%	46.86%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	-3.44%	3.64%	-0.20%	-4,204	4,451	-247

True Vote Model

The 2000 True Vote was used to determine the returning voter mix in 2004.

A revised, feasible returning voter mix was calculated using total votes cast in 2000 and 2004:

Assumptions:

1. 75% of uncounted votes were for Gore and Kerry

2. 5% voter mortality

3. 98% turnout of Bush and Gore voters

Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million votes.

National	2000	2000		2004	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	-	-	-	22,559	17.9%	57%	41%	2%	12,859	9,250	450
Gore	55,789	51,004	53,000	51,940	41.3%	91%	8%	1%	47,265	4,157	518
Bush	51,046	50,460	48,494	47,524	37.8%	10%	90%	0%	4,752	42,771	0
Other	3,990	3,953	3,790	3,714	2.9%	64%	17%	19%	2,377	633	704
True	110,825	105,417	105,284	125,737	379EV	53.49%	45.18%	1.33%	67,253	56,812	1,672
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	5.22%	-5.55%	0.33%	8,225	(5,229)	447
Exit Poll	49.39%	46.86%	3.75%	Exit Poll	337EV	51.97%	47.03%	1.00%	63,492	57,576	1,225
Cast	50.34%	46.06%	3.60%	Discrepancy	-	1.52%	-1.85%	0.33%	3,761	(764)	447

						Edison-Mitofsky State Exit Poll Timeline
	* Flipped to Bush
		RECORDED VOTE									BEST GEO					COMPOSITE
		* IA OH	NV NM		UNADJUSTED WPE/IMS							* CO FL				12:40am * VA
	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	WPE	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Error	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Error	EV
Total	48.27	50.73	(2.46)	251	51.97	47.03	4.94	7.39	337	51.02	48.49	2.53	4.99	301	50.27	49.07	1.20	3.65	288
AL	36.8	62.5	(25.6)		41.8	57.5	(15.6)	10.0		42.0	57.5	(15.5)	10.1		40.6	58.7	(18.1)	7.5
AK	35.5	61.1	(25.5)		40.2	56.4	(16.2)	9.3		41.2	57.4	(16.2)	9.3		39.0	58.8	(19.8)	5.7
AZ	44.4	54.9	(10.5)		44.5	54.7	(10.2)	0.3		46.5	53.5	(7.0)	3.5		46.8	53.2	(6.4)	4.1
AR	44.5	54.3	(9.8)		45.2	53.7	(8.5)	1.3		46.8	52.4	(5.6)	4.2		47.0	52.2	(5.2)	4.6
CA	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	11.6	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55
CO	47.0	51.7	(4.7)		50.1	48.6	1.4	6.1	9	47.0	52.5	(5.5)	(0.8)		47.7	51.4	(3.7)	1.0
CT	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	16.0	7	59.3	39.6	19.7	9.3	7	58.1	40.5	17.6	7.2	7
DE	53.3	45.8	7.6	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	15.9	3	61.5	37.9	23.6	16.0	3	57.7	41.2	16.5	8.9	3
DC	89.2	9.3	79.8	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	2.8	3	91.1	8.1	83.0	3.2	3	90.2	8.4	81.8	2.0	3
FL	47.1	52.1	(5.0)		51.0	48.2	2.8	7.8	27	49.2	50.3	(1.1)	3.9		49.3	50.1	(0.8)	4.2
GA	41.4	58.0	(16.6)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)	1.3		43.5	56.5	(13.0)	3.6		43.0	57.1	(14.1)	2.5
HI	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	8.2	4	56.5	43.4	13.1	4.4	4	53.6	46.4	7.2	(1.5)	4
ID	30.3	68.4	(38.1)		32.3	66.4	(34.1)	4.0		30.9	69.1	(38.2)	(0.1)		31.6	68.3	(36.7)	1.4
IL	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	56.6	42.7	13.8	3.5	21	57.5	42.6	14.9	4.6	21	57.0	42.9	14.1	3.8	21
IN	39.3	59.9	(20.7)		40.4	58.8	(18.5)	2.2		40.5	59.6	(19.1)	1.6		41.3	58.8	(17.5)	3.2
IA	49.2	49.9	(0.7)		50.7	48.4	2.3	3.0	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7
KS	36.6	62.0	(25.4)		37.2	61.5	(24.3)	1.1		36.6	62.8	(26.2)	(0.8)		34.4	64.6	(30.2)	(4.8)
KY	39.7	59.6	(19.9)		39.9	59.4	(19.5)	0.4		40.6	58.6	(18.0)	1.9		40.9	58.3	(17.4)	2.5
LA	42.2	56.7	(14.5)		43.5	55.4	(11.9)	2.6		43.2	56.3	(13.1)	1.4		44.3	54.8	(10.5)	4.0
ME	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	55.6	42.6	13.0	4.0	4	54.3	44.6	9.7	0.7	4	53.9	44.4	9.5	0.5	4
MD	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	59.6	39.3	20.3	7.3	10	59.4	39.7	19.7	6.7	10	56.6	42.5	14.1	1.1	10
MA	61.9	36.8	25.2	12	65.8	32.9	32.9	7.7	12	66.3	33.6	32.7	7.5	12	65.7	34.2	31.5	6.3	12
MI	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	54.4	44.6	9.8	6.4	17	51.8	47.3	4.5	1.1	17	51.9	47.1	4.8	1.4	17
MN	51.1	47.6	3.5	9	55.7	43.0	12.7	9.2	9	56.7	42.4	14.3	10.8	9	53.7	44.9	8.8	5.3	9
MS	40.2	59.0	(18.9)		49.4	49.8	(0.4)	18.5		46.2	53.2	(7.0)	11.9		43.4	56.0	(12.6)	6.3
MO	46.1	53.3	(7.2)		49.0	50.4	(1.4)	5.8		47.8	52.2	(4.4)	2.8		47.8	52.1	(4.3)	2.9
MT	38.6	59.1	(20.5)		37.3	60.4	(23.1)	(2.6)		37.8	59.9	(22.1)	(1.6)		37.2	60.0	(22.8)	(2.3)
NE	32.7	65.9	(33.2)		37.0	61.5	(24.5)	8.7		37.5	61.7	(24.2)	9.0		36.1	62.6	(26.5)	6.7
NV	47.9	50.5	(2.6)		52.8	45.5	7.3	9.9	5	49.3	47.9	1.4	4.0	5	48.9	48.3	0.6	3.2	5
NH	50.2	48.9	1.4	4	57.2	41.9	15.4	14.0	4	57.1	42.1	15.0	13.6	4	55.1	43.9	11.2	9.8	4
NJ	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	57.5	41.7	15.8	9.1	15	58.4	40.2	18.2	11.5	15	55.3	42.8	12.5	5.8	15
NM	49.0	49.8	(0.8)		53.0	45.8	7.2	8.0	5	51.7	47.5	4.2	5.0	5	50.8	48.0	2.8	3.6	5
NY	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	64.5	34.0	30.5	12.2	31	65.1	33.8	31.3	13.0	31	63.1	35.5	27.6	9.3	31
NC	43.6	56.0	(12.4)		49.5	50.1	(0.5)	11.9		48.2	51.8	(3.6)	8.8		48.1	51.9	(3.8)	8.6
ND	35.5	62.9	(27.4)		34.6	63.7	(29.1)	(1.7)		32.3	66.7	(34.4)	(7.0)		33.3	64.9	(31.6)	(4.2)
OH	48.7	50.8	(2.1)		54.0	45.5	8.5	10.6	20	53.2	46.7	6.5	8.6	20	52.1	47.9	4.1	6.2	20
OK	34.4	65.6	(31.1)		33.8	66.2	(32.3)	(1.2)		34.1	65.8	(31.7)	(0.6)		34.6	65.0	(30.4)	0.7
OR	51.3	47.2	4.2	7	52.2	46.3	6.0	1.8	7	51.3	47.2	4.2	0.0	7	50.3	47.9	2.4	(1.8)	7
PA	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	55.1	44.2	10.9	8.4	21	56.9	43.1	13.8	11.3	21	54.1	45.4	8.8	6.3	21
RI	59.4	38.7	20.8	4	62.1	36.0	26.1	5.3	4	62.4	36.3	26.1	5.3	4	62.7	34.9	27.8	7.0	4
SC	40.9	58.0	(17.1)		45.8	53.1	(7.4)	9.7		46.4	52.4	(6.0)	11.1		45.1	53.8	(8.7)	8.4
SD	38.4	59.9	(21.5)		35.9	62.5	(26.6)	(5.1)		34.9	63.2	(28.3)	(6.8)		36.8	61.5	(24.7)	(3.2)
TN	42.5	56.8	(14.3)		43.2	56.1	(13.0)	1.3		40.3	58.5	(18.2)	(3.9)		41.3	57.6	(16.3)	(2.0)
TX	38.2	61.1	(22.9)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)	7.6		36.5	63.5	(27.0)	(4.1)		37.1	62.9	(25.8)	(2.9)
UT	26.0	71.5	(45.5)		28.1	69.4	(41.2)	4.3		29.9	69.2	(39.3)	6.2		29.9	68.3	(38.4)	7.1
VT	58.9	38.8	20.1	3	66.5	31.2	35.3	15.2	3	67.0	30.4	36.6	16.5	3	64.5	32.8	31.7	11.6	3
VA	45.5	53.7	(8.2)		49.8	49.3	0.5	8.7	13	50.2	49.7	0.5	8.7	13	48.0	51.9	(3.9)	4.3
WA	52.8	45.6	7.2	11	56.8	41.6	15.2	8.0	11	54.9	44.2	10.7	3.5	11	54.1	44.6	9.5	2.3	11
WV	43.2	56.1	(12.9)		40.2	59.0	(18.8)	(5.9)		41.6	57.4	(15.8)	(2.9)		44.9	54.2	(9.3)	3.6
WI	49.7	49.3	0.4	10	52.1	46.9	5.2	4.8	10	52.5	46.8	5.7	5.3	10	49.6	49.2	0.4	0.0	10
WY	29.1	68.9	(39.8)		32.6	65.4	(32.8)	7.0		34.5	63.6	(29.1)	10.7		31.6	66.4	(34.8)	5.0