1988-2008 Election Calculator

The Election Calculator

August 26, 2010

The Election Calculator is a compact, powerful Excel workbook model for calculating the True Vote for presidential elections from 1988 to 2008. It is also a depository for election and exit poll data.

For example, to calculate the True 2004 vote, click the "2004" tab. Enter data assumptions (or use the pre-set defaults) for the current and prior election: uncounted votes, voter mortality. The defaults are based on Census and mortality tables and a best estimate turnout of 2000 voters. The 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares were assumed.

The number of returning voters from the prior election is based on user input assumptions. According to the Census, there were 5.4 million uncounted (net of stuffed) votes out of 110.8 million votes cast I 2000. The Census estimated that 125.74m votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m, so approximately 3.44m (2.74% of 125.74m) were uncounted (net of stuffed).

Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results. The Calculator is an unbiased number cruncher. It automatically calculates Democratic vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis"). Those who believe that Bush won should present a matching recorded vote share scenario using plausible assumptions.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can’t prove that fraud occurred. But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval. Twenty-nine states deviated from the exit poll to recorded vote beyond the margin of error – a virtually impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the election by 51-48% with a 1% margin of error. The probabilities were a compelling circumstantial case for fraud and were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc.

But the Smoking Gun was the Final National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the mix of returning voters and./or the vote shares. In 2004, they did both. They had to force the returning voter mix to an impossible 43% Bush / 37% Gore share of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004. But this was impossible: 43% of the 122.3 million votes recorded is 52.57 million – and Bush only had 50.456 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died so at most 48 million Bush 2000 voters if 100% turned out. Let’s assume that of the 48 million still living, only 46-47 million voted. There had to be 5.5 to 6.5 million phantom Bush voters.

The Final National Exit Poll is the Smoking Gun: It’s mathematically impossible, therefore so is the recorded vote that it was forced to match.

It’s all in my book: Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll.

Democrats always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than in the final, which is always matched to the recorded vote count. Millions of votes have been uncounted in every election - and 70-80% of them are Democratic. Uncounted votes are an obvious component of the discrepancy between preliminary and the final exit polls. The other is vote-switching at the voting machine and the central vote tabulators.

In every presidential election, a percentage of:

1) total votes cast are uncounted.

2) prior election voters have died.

3) prior election voters do not turnout to vote.

Given these percentages, we calculate/estimate:

a) Uncounted vote rate: percentage difference between the Census estimate of total votes cast and the recorded vote.

b) Voter Mortality rate: weighted average rate for National Exit Poll age groups over 18.

c) Voter Turnout: percentage estimate of returning voters from the prior election.

d) New (DNV) voters: difference between total votes cast and returning voters from the prior election.

e) Vote Shares: of returning and new voters (National Exit Poll is the base case estimate).

In summary, these are the steps to determine an approximation of the True Vote:

1) Based on a,b,c above, adjust the prior recorded vote to determine the number of returning voters.

2) Estimate each candidate's share of returning and new voters.

3) Calculate the True vote.

Default data input assumptions:

To simplify data entry into the Calculator, all inputs are pre-set to default values.

The default values can be overridden. The goal of the model is to enable the user to ask "what-if" the assumptions change.

Sensitivity Analysis:

Two tables display the effects of various input assumption scenarios on the national vote.

The first is based on the uncounted vote share in the prior election and the percent turnout of returning voters.

The second is based on the vote shares of new and returning voters.

Notes:

1) For the 2004 election, the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares are the defaults.

2) Final NEP vote shares are "adjusted" to force a match to the recorded vote (a fraud-free election is assumed).

3) According to the 2004 Census, 125.7m total votes were cast; 122.3m were recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) were uncounted.

4) The U.S. total mortality rate was 0.87% in 2000; estimated voter mortality was 1.22%.

Worksheets

Summary calculations: 1988-2008

True Vote Calculation: 1988-2008

State True Vote: OH CT NY PA CA NJ FL OR

States08: 2008 pre-election and exit polls

NEP0408: 2004 vs. 2008 National Exit Poll

2004Exit: State exit poll timeline

Machine: 2004 State recorded vote by Voting Method

Final5m: Final (late) 2004 recorded vote

HistNEP: Historical Final National Exit Poll (1972-2004)

HistWPE: 1988-2008 recorded state vote/wpe

Mortality: Voter mortality by age group

Turnout: 1988-2008 prior election living voter turnout required to match new voters

Census: Voting data from 1968-2008

Pre and post election summary

Links

Final 2004 National Exit Poll

Impossible- forced to match the recorded vote. Indicates there were 52.586 million returning Bush voters.

But since only 50.46 million voted in 2000, therefore there had to be 110% Bush voter turnout!

Bush won by a bogus 3.0 million recorded votes.

2000

2004

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

20,790

17.0%

54.0%

45.0%

1.0%

11,227

9,355

208

Gore

53,959

51,004

48,454

45,249

37.0%

90.0%

10.0%

0.0%

40,724

4,525

93%

Bush

52,854

50,460

47,937

52,586

43.0%

9.0%

91.0%

0.0%

4,733

47,853

110%

Other

4,160

3,953

3,756

3,669

3.0%

71.0%

8.0%

21.0%

2,605

294

770

98%

NEP

110,973

105,417

100,147

122,294

48.48%

50.72%

0.80%

59,288

62,027

978

101%

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

0.21%

-0.01%

-0.20%

259

(13)

(246)

Cast

50.34%

46.06%

3.60%

Exit Poll

338 EV

51.97%

47.02%

1.00%

63,492

57,576

1,225

122,294

Exit Poll

49.39%

46.86%

3.75%

Discrepancy

-3.44%

3.64%

-0.20%

-4,204

4,451

-247

2004 True Vote Model

The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated an impossible 41/39% Bush/Gore mix.

A revised, feasible returning voter mix was calculated using total votes cast in 2000 and 2004,

5% voter mortality and an estimated 98% turnout of Bush and Gore voters

Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million votes.

National	2000	2000		2004	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	-	-	-	22,559	17.94%	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	12,859	9,250	450
Gore	55,789	51,004	53,000	51,940	41.31%	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	47,265	4,157	518
Bush	51,046	50,460	48,494	47,524	37.80%	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	4,752	42,771	0
Other	3,990	3,953	3,790	3,714	2.95%	64.0%	17.1%	18.9%	2,377	633	704

True	110,825	105,417	105,284	125,737	379EV	53.49%	45.18%	1.33%	67,253	56,812	1,672

2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	5.22%	-5.55%	0.33%	8,225	(5,229)	447
Exit Poll	49.39%	46.86%	3.75%	Exit Poll	337EV	51.97%	47.03%	1.00%	63,492	57,576	1,225
Cast	50.34%	46.06%	3.60%	Discrepancy	-	1.52%	-1.85%	0.33%	3,761	(764)	447

Edison-Mitofsky State Exit Polls

UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS

RECORDED VOTE

IMS/WPE METHOD

BEST GEO

COMPOSITE

12:40am

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Kerry

Bush

Margin

WPE

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

Total

48.27

50.73

(2.46)

251

51.97

47.03

4.9

7.39

337

51.02

48.49

2.53

4.99

301

50.27

49.07

1.20

3.65

288

36.8

62.5

(25.6)

41.8

57.5

(15.6)

10.0

42.0

57.5

(15.5)

10.1

40.6

58.7

(18.1)

7.5

35.5

61.1

(25.5)

40.2

56.4

(16.2)

9.3

41.2

57.4

(16.2)

9.3

39.0

58.8

(19.8)

5.7

44.4

54.9

(10.5)

44.5

54.7

(10.2)

0.3

46.5

53.5

(7.0)

3.5

46.8

53.2

(6.4)

4.1

44.5

54.3

(9.8)

45.2

53.7

(8.5)

1.3

46.8

52.4

(5.6)

4.2

47.0

52.2

(5.2)

4.6

54.3

44.4

9.9

60.1

38.6

21.5

11.6

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

47.0

51.7

(4.7)

50.1

48.6

1.4

6.1

47.0

52.5

(5.5)

(0.8)

47.7

51.4

(3.7)

1.0

54.3

43.9

10.4

62.3

35.9

26.4

16.0

59.3

39.6

19.7

9.3

58.1

40.5

17.6

7.2

53.3

45.8

7.6

61.3

37.8

23.5

15.9

61.5

37.9

23.6

16.0

57.7

41.2

16.5

8.9

89.2

9.3

79.8

90.6

7.9

82.6

2.8

91.1

8.1

83.0

3.2

90.2

8.4

81.8

2.0

47.1

52.1

(5.0)

51.0

48.2

2.8

7.8

49.2

50.3

(1.1)

3.9

49.3

50.1

(0.8)

4.2

41.4

58.0

(16.6)

42.0

57.3

(15.3)

1.3

43.5

56.5

(13.0)

3.6

43.0

57.1

(14.1)

2.5

54.0

45.3

8.7

58.1

41.2

16.9

8.2

56.5

43.4

13.1

4.4

53.6

46.4

7.2

(1.5)

30.3

68.4

(38.1)

32.3

66.4

(34.1)

4.0

30.9

69.1

(38.2)

(0.1)

31.6

68.3

(36.7)

1.4

54.8

44.5

10.3

56.6

42.7

13.8

3.5

57.5

42.6

14.9

4.6

57.0

42.9

14.1

3.8

39.3

59.9

(20.7)

40.4

58.8

(18.5)

2.2

40.5

59.6

(19.1)

1.6

41.3

58.8

(17.5)

3.2

49.2

49.9

(0.7)

50.7

48.4

2.3

3.0

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

36.6

62.0

(25.4)

37.2

61.5

(24.3)

1.1

36.6

62.8

(26.2)

(0.8)

34.4

64.6

(30.2)

(4.8)

39.7

59.6

(19.9)

39.9

59.4

(19.5)

0.4

40.6

58.6

(18.0)

1.9

40.9

58.3

(17.4)

2.5

42.2

56.7

(14.5)

43.5

55.4

(11.9)

2.6

43.2

56.3

(13.1)

1.4

44.3

54.8

(10.5)

4.0

53.6

44.6

9.0

55.6

42.6

13.0

4.0

54.3

44.6

9.7

0.7

53.9

44.4

9.5

0.5

55.9

42.9

13.0

59.6

39.3

20.3

7.3

59.4

39.7

19.7

6.7

56.6

42.5

14.1

1.1

61.9

36.8

25.2

65.8

32.9

7.7

66.3

33.6

32.7

7.5

65.7

34.2

31.5

6.3

51.2

47.8

3.4

54.4

44.6

9.8

6.4

51.8

47.3

4.5

1.1

51.9

47.1

4.8

1.4

51.1

47.6

3.5

55.7

43.0

12.7

9.2

56.7

42.4

14.3

10.8

53.7

44.9

8.8

5.3

40.2

59.0

(18.9)

49.4

49.8

(0.4)

18.5

46.2

53.2

(7.0)

11.9

43.4

56.0

(12.6)

6.3

46.1

53.3

(7.2)

49.0

50.4

(1.4)

5.8

47.8

52.2

(4.4)

2.8

47.8

52.1

(4.3)

2.9

38.6

59.1

(20.5)

37.3

60.4

(23.1)

(2.6)

37.8

59.9

(22.1)

(1.6)

37.2

60.0

(22.8)

(2.3)

32.7

65.9

(33.2)

37.0

61.5

(24.5)

8.7

37.5

61.7

(24.2)

9.0

36.1

62.6

(26.5)

6.7

47.9

50.5

(2.6)

52.8

45.5

7.3

9.9

49.3

47.9

1.4

4.0

48.9

48.3

0.6

3.2

50.2

48.9

1.4

57.2

41.9

15.4

14.0

57.1

42.1

15.0

13.6

55.1

43.9

11.2

9.8

52.9

46.2

6.7

57.5

41.7

15.8

9.1

58.4

40.2

18.2

11.5

55.3

42.8

12.5

5.8

49.0

49.8

(0.8)

53.0

45.8

7.2

8.0

51.7

47.5

4.2

5.0

50.8

48.0

2.8

3.6

58.4

40.1

18.3

64.5

34.0

30.5

12.2

65.1

33.8

31.3

13.0

63.1

35.5

27.6

9.3

43.6

56.0

(12.4)

49.5

50.1

(0.5)

11.9

48.2

51.8

(3.6)

8.8

48.1

51.9

(3.8)

8.6

35.5

62.9

(27.4)

34.6

63.7

(29.1)

(1.7)

32.3

66.7

(34.4)

(7.0)

33.3

64.9

(31.6)

(4.2)

48.7

50.8

(2.1)

54.0

45.5

8.5

10.6

53.2

46.7

6.5

8.6

52.1

47.9

4.1

6.2

34.4

65.6

(31.1)

33.8

66.2

(32.3)

(1.2)

34.1

65.8

(31.7)

(0.6)

34.6

65.0

(30.4)

0.7

51.3

47.2

4.2

52.2

46.3

6.0

1.8

51.3

47.2

4.2

0.0

50.3

47.9

2.4

(1.8)

50.9

48.4

2.5