Election Calculator

TruthIsAll

The Election Calculator is a compact, powerful Excel workbook model for calculating the True vote for presidential elections since 1988.

The Calculator determines the number of returning prior election voters based on user input assumptions. For example, to calculate the True 2004 vote, click the "2004" tab.  Enter data assumptions (or use the pre-set defaults) for the current and prior election: uncounted votes, voter mortality (defaults are based on Census and mortality tables) and the candidates’ share of returning 2000 voters (default to the 12:22am National Exit Poll update). 

According to the Census, in 2000 there were 5.4 million uncounted (net of stuffed) votes out of 110.8 million votes cast.  In 2004, the Census estimated that 125.74m votes were cast. The recorded vote was 122.3m, so approximately 3.44m (2.74% of 125.74m) were uncounted (net of stuffed). 

Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results. The Calculator is an unbiased number cruncher.  It automatically calculates Democratic vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis"). Those who believe that Bush won should present a matching recorded vote share scenario using plausible assumptions.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can’t prove that fraud occurred.  But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval.  Twenty-nine states deviated from the exit poll to recorded vote beyond the margin of error – a virtually impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the election by 51-48% with a 1% margin of error.  The probabilities were a compelling circumstantial case for fraud and were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc.

See the 2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics for details.

Democrats always do better in the preliminary exit poll than they do in the final, which is always matched to the recorded vote count.  But what if the recorded count is corrupt?  Millions of votes (over 3%) are uncounted in every election - and 70-80% of them are Democratic; this is an obvious component of the discrepancy between preliminary and the final exit polls. The other is vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central vote tabulators.

National

2000

2000

 

2004

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

-

-

-

22,559

17.94%

57.0%

41.0%

2.0%

12,859

9,250

450

Gore

55,789

51,004

53,000

51,940

41.31%

91.0%

8.0%

1.0%

47,265

4,157

518

Bush

51,046

50,460

48,494

47,524

37.80%

10.0%

90.0%

0.0%

4,752

42,771

0

Other

3,990

3,953

3,790

3,714

2.95%

64.0%

17.1%

18.9%

2,377

633

704

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

110,825

105,417

105,284

125,737

379EV

53.49%

45.18%

1.33%

67,253

56,812

1,672

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

-

5.22%

-5.55%

0.33%

8,225

(5,229)

447

Exit Poll

49.39%

46.86%

3.75%

Exit Poll

337EV

51.92%

47.08%

1.00%

63,492

57,576

1,225

Cast

50.34%

46.06%

3.60%

Discrepancy

-

1.57%

-1.90%

0.33%

3,761

(764)

447

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECORDED VOTE

 

WPE METHOD

3

IMS

 

 

 

BEST GEO

 

 

 

 

COMPOSITE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1=VNS, 2=DSS, 3=IMS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:40am

 

 

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

WPE

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

EV

Total

48.27

50.73

(2.46)

251

 

51.97

47.03

4.9

7.39

337

 

51.02

48.49

2.53

4.99

301

 

50.27

49.07

1.20

3.65

288

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

36.8

62.5

(25.6)

 

 

41.8

57.5

(15.6)

10.0

 

 

42.0

57.5

(15.5)

10.1

 

 

40.6

58.7

(18.1)

7.5

 

AK

35.5

61.1

(25.5)

 

 

40.2

56.4

(16.2)

9.3

 

 

41.2

57.4

(16.2)

9.3

 

 

39.0

58.8

(19.8)

5.7

 

AZ

44.4

54.9

(10.5)

 

 

44.5

54.7

(10.2)

0.3

 

 

46.5

53.5

(7.0)

3.5

 

 

46.8

53.2

(6.4)

4.1

 

AR

44.5

54.3

(9.8)

 

 

45.2

53.7

(8.5)

1.3

 

 

46.8

52.4

(5.6)

4.2

 

 

47.0

52.2

(5.2)

4.6

 

CA

54.3

44.4

9.9

55

 

60.1

38.6

21.5

11.6

55

 

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

55

 

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

47.0

51.7

(4.7)

 

 

50.1

48.6

1.4

6.1

9

 

47.0

52.5

(5.5)

(0.8)

 

 

47.7

51.4

(3.7)

1.0

 

CT

54.3

43.9

10.4

7

 

62.3

35.9

26.4

16.0

7

 

59.3

39.6

19.7

9.3

7

 

58.1

40.5

17.6

7.2

7

DE

53.3

45.8

7.6

3

 

61.3

37.8

23.5

15.9

3

 

61.5

37.9

23.6

16.0

3

 

57.7

41.2

16.5

8.9

3

DC

89.2

9.3

79.8

3

 

90.6

7.9

82.6

2.8

3

 

91.1

8.1

83.0

3.2

3

 

90.2

8.4

81.8

2.0

3

FL

47.1

52.1

(5.0)

 

 

51.0

48.2

2.8

7.8

27

 

49.2

50.3

(1.1)

3.9

 

 

49.3

50.1

(0.8)

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

41.4

58.0

(16.6)

 

 

42.0

57.3

(15.3)

1.3

 

 

43.5

56.5

(13.0)

3.6

 

 

43.0

57.1

(14.1)

2.5

 

HI

54.0

45.3

8.7

4

 

58.1

41.2

16.9

8.2

4

 

56.5

43.4

13.1

4.4

4

 

53.6

46.4

7.2

(1.5)

4

ID

30.3

68.4

(38.1)

 

 

32.3

66.4

(34.1)

4.0

 

 

30.9

69.1

(38.2)

(0.1)

 

 

31.6

68.3

(36.7)

1.4

 

IL

54.8

44.5

10.3

21

 

56.6

42.7

13.8

3.5

21

 

57.5

42.6

14.9

4.6

21

 

57.0

42.9

14.1

3.8

21

IN

39.3

59.9

(20.7)

 

 

40.4

58.8

(18.5)

2.2

 

 

40.5

59.6

(19.1)

1.6

 

 

41.3

58.8

(17.5)

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

49.2

49.9

(0.7)

 

 

50.7

48.4

2.3

3.0

7

 

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

7

 

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

7

KS

36.6

62.0

(25.4)

 

 

37.2

61.5

(24.3)

1.1

 

 

36.6

62.8

(26.2)

(0.8)

 

 

34.4

64.6

(30.2)

(4.8)

 

KY

39.7

59.6

(19.9)

 

 

39.9

59.4

(19.5)

0.4

 

 

40.6

58.6

(18.0)

1.9

 

 

40.9

58.3

(17.4)

2.5

 

LA

42.2

56.7

(14.5)

 

 

43.5

55.4

(11.9)

2.6

 

 

43.2

56.3

(13.1)

1.4

 

 

44.3

54.8

(10.5)

4.0

 

ME

53.6

44.6

9.0

4

 

55.6

42.6

13.0

4.0

4

 

54.3

44.6

9.7

0.7

4

 

53.9

44.4

9.5

0.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

55.9

42.9

13.0

10

 

59.6

39.3

20.3

7.3

10

 

59.4

39.7

19.7

6.7

10

 

56.6

42.5

14.1

1.1

10

MA

61.9

36.8

25.2

12

 

65.8

32.9

32.9

7.7

12

 

66.3

33.6

32.7

7.5

12

 

65.7

34.2

31.5

6.3

12

MI

51.2

47.8

3.4

17

 

54.4

44.6

9.8

6.4

17

 

51.8

47.3

4.5

1.1

17

 

51.9

47.1

4.8

1.4

17

MN

51.1

47.6

3.5

9

 

55.7

43.0

12.7

9.2

9

 

56.7

42.4

14.3

10.8

9

 

53.7

44.9

8.8

5.3

9

MS

40.2

59.0

(18.9)

 

 

49.4

49.8

(0.4)

18.5

 

 

46.2

53.2

(7.0)

11.9

 

 

43.4

56.0

(12.6)

6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

46.1

53.3

(7.2)

 

 

49.0

50.4

(1.4)

5.8

 

 

47.8

52.2

(4.4)

2.8

 

 

47.8

52.1

(4.3)

2.9

 

MT

38.6

59.1

(20.5)

 

 

37.3

60.4

(23.1)

(2.6)

 

 

37.8

59.9

(22.1)

(1.6)

 

 

37.2

60.0

(22.8)

(2.3)

 

NE

32.7

65.9

(33.2)

 

 

37.0

61.5

(24.5)

8.7

 

 

37.5

61.7

(24.2)

9.0

 

 

36.1

62.6

(26.5)

6.7

 

NV

47.9

50.5

(2.6)

 

 

52.8

45.5

7.3

9.9

5

 

49.3

47.9

1.4

4.0

5

 

48.9

48.3

0.6

3.2

5

NH

50.2

48.9

1.4

4

 

57.2

41.9

15.4

14.0

4

 

57.1

42.1

15.0

13.6

4

 

55.1

43.9

11.2

9.8

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

52.9

46.2

6.7

15

 

57.5

41.7

15.8

9.1

15

 

58.4

40.2

18.2

11.5

15

 

55.3

42.8

12.5

5.8

15

NM

49.0

49.8

(0.8)

 

 

53.0

45.8

7.2

8.0

5

 

51.7

47.5

4.2

5.0

5

 

50.8

48.0

2.8

3.6

5

NY

58.4

40.1

18.3

31

 

64.5

34.0

30.5

12.2

31

 

65.1

33.8

31.3

13.0

31

 

63.1

35.5

27.6

9.3

31

NC

43.6

56.0

(12.4)

 

 

49.5

50.1

(0.5)

11.9

 

 

48.2

51.8

(3.6)

8.8

 

 

48.1

51.9

(3.8)

8.6

 

ND

35.5

62.9

(27.4)

 

 

34.6

63.7

(29.1)

(1.7)

 

 

32.3

66.7

(34.4)

(7.0)

 

 

33.3

64.9

(31.6)

(4.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

48.7

50.8

(2.1)

 

 

54.0

45.5

8.5

10.6

20

 

53.2

46.7

6.5

8.6

20

 

52.1

47.9

4.1

6.2

20

OK

34.4

65.6

(31.1)

 

 

33.8

66.2

(32.3)

(1.2)

 

 

34.1

65.8

(31.7)

(0.6)

 

 

34.6

65.0

(30.4)

0.7

 

OR

51.3

47.2

4.2

7

 

52.2

46.3

6.0

1.8

7

 

51.3

47.2

4.2

0.0

7

 

50.3

47.9

2.4

(1.8)

7

PA

50.9

48.4

2.5

21

 

55.1

44.2

10.9

8.4

21

 

56.9

43.1

13.8

11.3

21

 

54.1

45.4

8.8

6.3

21

RI

59.4

38.7

20.8

4

 

62.1

36.0

26.1

5.3

4

 

62.4

36.3

26.1

5.3

4

 

62.7

34.9

27.8

7.0

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

40.9

58.0

(17.1)

 

 

45.8

53.1

(7.4)

9.7

 

 

46.4

52.4

(6.0)

11.1

 

 

45.1

53.8

(8.7)

8.4

 

SD

38.4

59.9

(21.5)

 

 

35.9

62.5

(26.6)

(5.1)

 

 

34.9

63.2

(28.3)

(6.8)

 

 

36.8

61.5

(24.7)

(3.2)

 

TN

42.5

56.8

(14.3)

 

 

43.2

56.1

(13.0)

1.3

 

 

40.3

58.5

(18.2)

(3.9)

 

 

41.3

57.6