Election Calculator

TruthIsAll

The Election Calculator is a compact, powerful Excel workbook model for calculating the True vote for presidential elections since 1988.

The Calculator determines the number of returning prior election voters based on user input assumptions. For example, to calculate the True 2004 vote, click the "2004" tab. Enter data assumptions (or use the pre-set defaults) for the current and prior election: uncounted votes, voter mortality (defaults are based on Census and mortality tables) and the candidates’ share of returning 2000 voters (default to the 12:22am National Exit Poll update).

According to the Census, in 2000 there were 5.4 million uncounted (net of stuffed) votes out of 110.8 million votes cast. In 2004, the Census estimated that 125.74m votes were cast. The recorded vote was 122.3m, so approximately 3.44m (2.74% of 125.74m) were uncounted (net of stuffed).

Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results. The Calculator is an unbiased number cruncher. It automatically calculates Democratic vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis"). Those who believe that Bush won should present a matching recorded vote share scenario using plausible assumptions.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can’t prove that fraud occurred. But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval. Twenty-nine states deviated from the exit poll to recorded vote beyond the margin of error – a virtually impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the election by 51-48% with a 1% margin of error. The probabilities were a compelling circumstantial case for fraud and were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc.

See the 2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics for details.

Democrats always do better in the preliminary exit poll than they do in the final, which is always matched to the recorded vote count. But what if the recorded count is corrupt? Millions of votes (over 3%) are uncounted in every election - and 70-80% of them are Democratic; this is an obvious component of the discrepancy between preliminary and the final exit polls. The other is vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central vote tabulators.

National	2000	2000		2004	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	-	-	-	22,559	17.94%	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	12,859	9,250	450
Gore	55,789	51,004	53,000	51,940	41.31%	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	47,265	4,157	518
Bush	51,046	50,460	48,494	47,524	37.80%	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	4,752	42,771	0
Other	3,990	3,953	3,790	3,714	2.95%	64.0%	17.1%	18.9%	2,377	633	704
True	110,825	105,417	105,284	125,737	379EV	53.49%	45.18%	1.33%	67,253	56,812	1,672
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	5.22%	-5.55%	0.33%	8,225	(5,229)	447
Exit Poll	49.39%	46.86%	3.75%	Exit Poll	337EV	51.92%	47.08%	1.00%	63,492	57,576	1,225
Cast	50.34%	46.06%	3.60%	Discrepancy	-	1.57%	-1.90%	0.33%	3,761	(764)	447

						Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates
					UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS
		RECORDED VOTE			WPE METHOD		3	IMS			BEST GEO					COMPOSITE
					1=VNS, 2=DSS, 3=IMS											12:40am
	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	WPE	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Error	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Error	EV
Total	48.27	50.73	(2.46)	251	51.97	47.03	4.9	7.39	337	51.02	48.49	2.53	4.99	301	50.27	49.07	1.20	3.65	288
AL	36.8	62.5	(25.6)		41.8	57.5	(15.6)	10.0		42.0	57.5	(15.5)	10.1		40.6	58.7	(18.1)	7.5
AK	35.5	61.1	(25.5)		40.2	56.4	(16.2)	9.3		41.2	57.4	(16.2)	9.3		39.0	58.8	(19.8)	5.7
AZ	44.4	54.9	(10.5)		44.5	54.7	(10.2)	0.3		46.5	53.5	(7.0)	3.5		46.8	53.2	(6.4)	4.1
AR	44.5	54.3	(9.8)		45.2	53.7	(8.5)	1.3		46.8	52.4	(5.6)	4.2		47.0	52.2	(5.2)	4.6
CA	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	11.6	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55
CO	47.0	51.7	(4.7)		50.1	48.6	1.4	6.1	9	47.0	52.5	(5.5)	(0.8)		47.7	51.4	(3.7)	1.0
CT	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	16.0	7	59.3	39.6	19.7	9.3	7	58.1	40.5	17.6	7.2	7
DE	53.3	45.8	7.6	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	15.9	3	61.5	37.9	23.6	16.0	3	57.7	41.2	16.5	8.9	3
DC	89.2	9.3	79.8	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	2.8	3	91.1	8.1	83.0	3.2	3	90.2	8.4	81.8	2.0	3
FL	47.1	52.1	(5.0)		51.0	48.2	2.8	7.8	27	49.2	50.3	(1.1)	3.9		49.3	50.1	(0.8)	4.2
GA	41.4	58.0	(16.6)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)	1.3		43.5	56.5	(13.0)	3.6		43.0	57.1	(14.1)	2.5
HI	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	8.2	4	56.5	43.4	13.1	4.4	4	53.6	46.4	7.2	(1.5)	4
ID	30.3	68.4	(38.1)		32.3	66.4	(34.1)	4.0		30.9	69.1	(38.2)	(0.1)		31.6	68.3	(36.7)	1.4
IL	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	56.6	42.7	13.8	3.5	21	57.5	42.6	14.9	4.6	21	57.0	42.9	14.1	3.8	21
IN	39.3	59.9	(20.7)		40.4	58.8	(18.5)	2.2		40.5	59.6	(19.1)	1.6		41.3	58.8	(17.5)	3.2
IA	49.2	49.9	(0.7)		50.7	48.4	2.3	3.0	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7
KS	36.6	62.0	(25.4)		37.2	61.5	(24.3)	1.1		36.6	62.8	(26.2)	(0.8)		34.4	64.6	(30.2)	(4.8)
KY	39.7	59.6	(19.9)		39.9	59.4	(19.5)	0.4		40.6	58.6	(18.0)	1.9		40.9	58.3	(17.4)	2.5
LA	42.2	56.7	(14.5)		43.5	55.4	(11.9)	2.6		43.2	56.3	(13.1)	1.4		44.3	54.8	(10.5)	4.0
ME	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	55.6	42.6	13.0	4.0	4	54.3	44.6	9.7	0.7	4	53.9	44.4	9.5	0.5	4
MD	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	59.6	39.3	20.3	7.3	10	59.4	39.7	19.7	6.7	10	56.6	42.5	14.1	1.1	10
MA	61.9	36.8	25.2	12	65.8	32.9	32.9	7.7	12	66.3	33.6	32.7	7.5	12	65.7	34.2	31.5	6.3	12
MI	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	54.4	44.6	9.8	6.4	17	51.8	47.3	4.5	1.1	17	51.9	47.1	4.8	1.4	17
MN	51.1	47.6	3.5	9	55.7	43.0	12.7	9.2	9	56.7	42.4	14.3	10.8	9	53.7	44.9	8.8	5.3	9
MS	40.2	59.0	(18.9)		49.4	49.8	(0.4)	18.5		46.2	53.2	(7.0)	11.9		43.4	56.0	(12.6)	6.3
MO	46.1	53.3	(7.2)		49.0	50.4	(1.4)	5.8		47.8	52.2	(4.4)	2.8		47.8	52.1	(4.3)	2.9
MT	38.6	59.1	(20.5)		37.3	60.4	(23.1)	(2.6)		37.8	59.9	(22.1)	(1.6)		37.2	60.0	(22.8)	(2.3)
NE	32.7	65.9	(33.2)		37.0	61.5	(24.5)	8.7		37.5	61.7	(24.2)	9.0		36.1	62.6	(26.5)	6.7
NV	47.9	50.5	(2.6)		52.8	45.5	7.3	9.9	5	49.3	47.9	1.4	4.0	5	48.9	48.3	0.6	3.2	5
NH	50.2	48.9	1.4	4	57.2	41.9	15.4	14.0	4	57.1	42.1	15.0	13.6	4	55.1	43.9	11.2	9.8	4
NJ	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	57.5	41.7	15.8	9.1	15	58.4	40.2	18.2	11.5	15	55.3	42.8	12.5	5.8	15
NM	49.0	49.8	(0.8)		53.0	45.8	7.2	8.0	5	51.7	47.5	4.2	5.0	5	50.8	48.0	2.8	3.6	5
NY	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	64.5	34.0	30.5	12.2	31	65.1	33.8	31.3	13.0	31	63.1	35.5	27.6	9.3	31
NC	43.6	56.0	(12.4)		49.5	50.1	(0.5)	11.9		48.2	51.8	(3.6)	8.8		48.1	51.9	(3.8)	8.6
ND	35.5	62.9	(27.4)		34.6	63.7	(29.1)	(1.7)		32.3	66.7	(34.4)	(7.0)		33.3	64.9	(31.6)	(4.2)
OH	48.7	50.8	(2.1)		54.0	45.5	8.5	10.6	20	53.2	46.7	6.5	8.6	20	52.1	47.9	4.1	6.2	20
OK	34.4	65.6	(31.1)		33.8	66.2	(32.3)	(1.2)		34.1	65.8	(31.7)	(0.6)		34.6	65.0	(30.4)	0.7
OR	51.3	47.2	4.2	7	52.2	46.3	6.0	1.8	7	51.3	47.2	4.2	0.0	7	50.3	47.9	2.4	(1.8)	7
PA	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	55.1	44.2	10.9	8.4	21	56.9	43.1	13.8	11.3	21	54.1	45.4	8.8	6.3	21
RI	59.4	38.7	20.8	4	62.1	36.0	26.1	5.3	4	62.4	36.3	26.1	5.3	4	62.7	34.9	27.8	7.0	4
SC	40.9	58.0	(17.1)		45.8	53.1	(7.4)	9.7		46.4	52.4	(6.0)	11.1		45.1	53.8	(8.7)	8.4
SD	38.4	59.9	(21.5)		35.9	62.5	(26.6)	(5.1)		34.9	63.2	(28.3)	(6.8)		36.8	61.5	(24.7)	(3.2)
TN	42.5	56.8	(14.3)		43.2	56.1	(13.0)	1.3		40.3	58.5	(18.2)	(3.9)		41.3	57.6