The National Exit Poll Returning Voter Anomaly Confirms 2004 and 2008 Election Fraud

 

TruthIsAll

 

Mar. 31, 2009

 

Obama won the recorded vote by 69.46-59.34m, a 52.87-45.6% vote share. The Final 2008 National Exit Poll,which is always forced to match the recorded vote, indicates a 52.62-45.52% split.

 

But the 2008 Final returning Bush/Kerry (46/37) voter mix is mathematically impossible as was the Final 2004 Bush/Gore (43/37) mix.  Both exit polls required 6-7m more returning Bush voters in 2008 than those living in order to match the recorded vote. The return voter mix anomaly is therefore further confirmation that Kerry won. Implausible low Kerry voter turnout and impossible high Bush voter turnout in 2008 is required to match the recorded vote. Obama’s True Vote exceeded the recorded vote as it did for Kerry and Gore. In order to match the recorded vote, the 2008 Final implies that Bush won in 2004 by 52.9-42.5%.  He won by 50.7-48.3% (62-59m). 

 

The 2008 return voter mix anomaly is further confirmation that Kerry won. An implausible low Kerry voter turnout and impossible high Bush voter turnout in 2008 was required to match the recorded vote. Obama’s True Vote far exceeded the recorded vote just at it did for Kerry and Gore. In order to match the recorded vote, the 2008 Final NEP implied that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%.  He won the recorded vote (but who still believes it?) by 50.7-48.3% (62-59m). 

 

Because the Final 2008 NEP returning voter mix is impossible, the 2008 Election Calculator assumed two returning voter scenarios in order to match the recorded vote. The scenarios were based on the recorded 2004 vote (assuming the election was fraud-free) and the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate (assuming the election was stolen) that Kerry won by 52-47%. Both scenarios required vote shares that differed sharply from the Final NEP shares.

 

The actual Final NEP Obama/McCain shares of returning and new voters were assumed in order to calculate the True Vote for both no-fraud and fraud scenarios. The Final shares are used only because the preliminary NEP has not been and may never be released.

 

There is no doubt that Obama's vote shares were higher in the preliminary NEP. That is always the case since the objective is to always match the Final to the recorded vote - which means that the Democratic vote shares must be reduced. Therefore, Obama must have done better than the calculated True vote indicates; he won by more than 22 million votes.

 

We assume two scenarios for returning 2004 voters:

1) The 2004 vote was fraud-free (the recorded vote was the True vote).

2) The 2004 election was stolen (the unadjusted exit poll was the True vote).

 

For each scenario, we will consider three cases:

A) Turnout is calculated based on the NEP voter mix.

B) Turnout is 95% for returning Kerry, Bush and Other voters.

C) Obama’s 2008 NEP vote shares are reduced to match the recorded vote.

 

The only assumptions are:

1) 1.20% annual voter mortality rate  (4.8% over 4 years)

2) All votes cast were counted in 2004 and 2008.

 

According to the 2004 US Census, there were 3.45m more votes were cast than recorded. An estimated 75% were Kerry votes, but to be conservative and simplify the analysis, no uncounted votes were assumed in 2004 or 2008.

 

In Scenario 1A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 102% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 86%.

In Scenario 2A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 110% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 80%.

 

In Scenario 1B, Obama’s vote share is 2.34% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 7m higher than the recorded 9m.

In Scenario 2B, Obama’s vote share is 4.60% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 13m higher than the recorded 9m.

 

In Scenario 1C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (67,88,14,66)

In Scenario 2C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (60,86,13,66)

 

Scenario 1: 2004 Recorded Vote was the True Vote (no fraud)

 

A) 2008 National Exit Poll returning voter mix and vote shares

                        Impossible 2004 voter turnout in 2008

                        2004                 Alive         Voted            Mix                Obama               McCain          Other            Obama          McCain          Other

                        DNV                                   17.08            13%              71%                   27%              2%                12.13            4.61              0.34

86%                 Kerry                56.20        48.61            37%              89%                   9%                2%                43.26            4.37              0.97

102%               Bush                 59.06        60.43            46%              17%                   82%              1%                10.27            49.55            0.60

451%               Other                1.16          5.25              4%                66%                   24%              10%              3.47              1.26              0.53

                                                                                                                                                                     

                  Total                  116.43      131.37          100.0%         52.62%              45.52%         1.86%           69.13            59.80            2.44

                                                                                                                                                                     

B) 2004 Recorded Vote mix and 2008 NEP vote shares

                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Turnout            2004                 Alive         Voted            Mix                Obama               McCain          Other            Obama          McCain          Other

                  DNV                                   20.76            15.8%           71%                   27%              2%                14.74            5.61              0.42

95%                 Kerry                56.20        53.39            40.6%           89%                   9%                2%                47.52            4.81              1.07

95%                 Bush                 59.06        56.11            42.7%           17%                   82%              1%                9.54              46.01            0.56

95%                 Other                1.16          1.11              0.8%             66%                   24%              10%              0.73              0.27              0.11

                                                                                                                                                                     

                  Total                  116.43      131.37          100.0%         55.21%              43.15%         1.64%           72.53            56.69            2.15

                  Recorded                       131.37                                52.87%              45.62%         1.51%           69.457          59.935          1.978

                  Diff                                                                            2.34%                -2.47%          0.13%           3.07              -3.25             0.18

 

C) 2004 Recorded Vote mix and 2008 NEP vote shares adjusted to match the recorded vote

                                                                                                           Implausible vote shares beyond the NEP margin of error

Turnout         2004                 Alive         Voted            Mix                Obama                  McCain          Other            Obama          McCain          Other

                DNV                                   20.76            15.8%           67%                      31%              2%                13.91            6.44              0.42

95%              Kerry                56.20        53.39            40.6%           88%                      10%              2%                46.98            5.34              1.07

95%              Bush                 59.06        56.11            42.7%           14%                      85%              1%                7.86              47.69            0.56

95%              Other                1.16          1.11              0.8%             66%                      24%              10%              0.73              0.27              0.11

                                                                                                                                                                     

                Total                  116.43      131.37          100.0%         52.89%                 45.47%         1.64%           69.48            59.74            2.15

                Recorded                       131.37                                52.87%                 45.62%         1.51%           69.457          59.935          1.978

                Diff                                                                            0.02%                   -0.15%          0.13%           0.02              -0.20             0.18

 

 

Scenario 2: 2004 State Aggregate Exit Poll was the True Vote

 

A) 2008 National Exit Poll mix and vote shares

                        Impossible 2004 voter turnout in 2008

Turnout            2004                 Alive         Voted            Mix                Obama               McCain          Other            Obama          McCain          Other

                        DNV                                    17.08            13.0%           71%                   27%              2%                12.13            4.61              0.34

80%                 Kerry                60.54        48.61            37.0%           89%                   9%                2%                43.26            4.37              0.97

110%               Bush                 54.72        60.43            46.0%           17%                   82%              1%                10.27            49.55            0.60

451%               Other                1.16          5.25              4.0%             66%                   24%              10%              3.47              1.26              0.53

                                                                                                                                                                     

                  Total                  116.43      131.37          100.0%         52.62%              45.5%           1.86%           69.13            59.80            2.44

                                                                                                                                                                     

 

B) Unadjusted 2004 Exit Poll mix and 2008 NEP vote shares

                 

Turnout            2004                 Alive         Voted            Mix                Obama               McCain          Other            Obama          McCain          Other

                  DNV                                   20.76            15.8%           71%                   27%              2%                14.74            5.61              0.42

95%                 Kerry                60.54        57.52            43.8%           89%                   9%                2%                51.19            5.18              1.15

95%                 Bush                 54.72        51.99            39.6%           17%                   82%              1%                8.84              42.63            0.52

95%                 Other                1.16          1.11              0.8%             66%                   24%              10%              0.73              0.27              0.11

                                                                                                                                                                     

                  Total                  116.43      131.37          100.0%         57.47%              40.86%         1.67%           75.50            53.68            2.20

                  Recorded                       131.37                                52.87%              45.62%         1.51%           69.457          59.935          1.978

                  Diff                                                                            4.60%                -4.76%          0.17%           6.04              -6.26             0.22

 

C) Unadjusted 2004 Exit Poll mix with 2008 NEP vote shares adjusted to match the recorded vote

                                                                                                           Implausible vote shares beyond the NEP margin of error

Turnout         2004                 Alive         Voted            Mix                Obama                  McCain          Other            Obama          McCain          Other

                DNV                                   20.76            15.8%           60%                      38.0%           2%                12.46            7.89              0.42

95%              Kerry                60.54        57.52            43.8%           86%                      12.0%           2%                49.46            6.90              1.15

95%              Bush                 54.72        51.99            39.6%           13%                      86.0%           1%                6.76              44.71            0.52

95%              Other                1.16          1.11              0.8%             66%                      24.0%           10%              0.73              0.27              0.11

                                                                                                                                                                     

                Total                  116.43      131.37          100.0%         52.83%                 45.49%         1.67%           69.41            59.76            2.20

                Recorded                       131.37                                52.87%                 45.62%         1.51%           69.457          59.935          1.978

                Diff                                 0.00                                    -0.04%                 -0.13%          0.17%           -0.05             -0.17             0.22