2008 Election Model:  Predicted the Electoral and Popular vote…but not the True Vote

 

TruthIsAll

 

Mar. 24, 2009

 

The Final 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and was close to matching the current popular vote share (52.87-45.62%).  The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1- 44.9% share.  Obama currently leads by a 69.46-59.94m out of 131.37m recorded votes.

 

The EM projected that Obama would win by 75.9-64.2m out of 143m total votes cast and capture 60% of undecided voters (the base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him 53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and 379.5 EV. 

 

But the landslide was denied . Obama did better than the EM projection and the recorded vote. According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105.4m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70-80% of the uncounted vote.

 

The 2008 Election Calculator  (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a 54.5-44.4% share (78.3-63.8m). 

 

The EC was run post-election based on 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares, but with the returning voter mix changed from an impossible 46/37/4 Bush/Kerry/Other to a feasible mix based on a) the 2004 recorded vote (implausible) and b) the 2004 unadjusted exit poll (plausible). Obama won the implausible scenario (a) with 55.4% of the vote; he won the plausible scenario (b) with 57.2%.

 

On Election Day, Obama led by 63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%) with 121.2m votes recorded, so he has a 59.2-37.5% share of the late 10.16m votes. Gore and Kerry also had late vote share margins that exceeded the initial margin by 6-7%.

 

Obama’s expected EV was calculated as the product sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral vote.

In equation form: Expected EV =ĺ Win Prob(i) * EV(i), for i= 1,51 states.

 

The state win probability is a function of the final 2-3 average polling spread and 3% margin of error (1200-1800 total sample). These parameters are input to the Excel normal distribution probability function to calculate the win probability. The expected 365.3 EV was close to the 365.8 average EV obtained in the Monte Carlo simulation. Obama won all 5000 election trials; his electoral vote win probability was 100%.

 

Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama’s 9.5 million margin is not a mandate, unlike the Bush 3.0m “mandate” in 2004.  But Obama won by more than that. The True Vote will only be revealed if there is a real investigation by the courts, Congress and/or the Media. Don’t hold your breath.

 

2008 Election Calculator Projection

 

2004

True Vote

 

 

 

2008

 Calculated True Vote

 

 

 

 

Cast

Deaths

Alive

 

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

29.9

20.8%

57%

41%

2%

Kerry

66.9

3.2

63.7

 

95%

60.6

42.2%

91%

8%

1%

Bush

57.1

2.8

54.3

 

95%

51.6

35.9%

10%

90%

0%

Other

1.7

0.1

1.7

 

95%

1.6

1.1%

64%

17%

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

125.8

6.0

119.7

 

113.7

143.7

100%

54.53%

44.43%

1.05%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

143.7

78.3

63.8

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-party

55.1%

44.9%

 

 

The 2008 National Exit Poll – an impossible returning voter mix

 

Implied

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

17.08

13%

71%

27%

2%

12.1

4.6

0.3

42.5%

Kerry

48.61

37%

89%

9%

2%

43.3

4.4

1.0

52.9%

Bush

60.43

46%

17%

82%

1%

10.3

49.6

0.6

4.6%

Other

5.25

4%

66%

24%

10%

3.5

1.3

0.5

114.3

Total

131.37

100%

52.62%

45.52%

         1.86%

69.13

59.80

2.44

 

The Post-election 2008 Election Calculator – two scenarios

 

The Election Calculator used  Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP return voter mix.

 

The assumptions were the following:

 2004: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74% based on Census data), 4.8% mortality (table)

Turnout:  97% of living 2004 voters in 2008 (based on best estimates of 2008 votes cast and returning 2004 voters)

Uncounted votes in 2008: 3% of total votes cast  (estimated)

 

The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73 - Kerry 48.27%) as the basis for the returning voter mix.

Obama won by 16.8 million votes – a 7.3 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52 - Bush 47%) as the basis for the mix.

Obama won by 21.9 million - a 12.4 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

Scenario 1 (implausible):  returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote.

Obama wins by 16.81m: 75.01-58.20 (55.38-42.98%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

Calculated Vote

 

 

2004

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

19.42

14.34%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

59.03

2.58

61.61

2.96

58.65

96.9%

56.85

42.0%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

62.04

0.83

62.87

3.02

59.85

96.9%

58.01

42.8%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

96.9%

1.16

0.86%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

116.0

135.43

100%

55.38%

42.98%

1.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.43

75.01

58.20

2.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.37

69.46

59.94

1.98

 

Scenario 2 (plausible):  returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares.

a) Obama wins by 21.86m: 77.52-55.66 (57.2-41.08%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

Calculated Vote

 

 

2004

Exit Poll

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

19.42

14.34%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

63.59

1.79

65.38

3.14

62.25

96.9%

60.33

44.5%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

57.47

1.62

59.09

2.84

56.26

96.9%

54.52

40.3%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

96.9%

1.16

0.86%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

116.0

135.43

100%

57.24%

41.10%

1.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.43

77.52

55.66

2.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.37

69.46

59.94

1.98

 

 

2004/2008 Election Model and Election Calculator projection

(input assumptions and base case scenario results)

 

2008   

Model        Obama McCain       

EM              53.1 - 44.9%,  365.3 EV; 60% UVA (base case).

EM              53.9 - 44.1%,  379.3 EV; 75% UVA.

 

EC               54.5 - 44.5 %; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters; 12:22am NEP vote shares.

Recorded    52.8 – 45.7%; 365 EV

 

2004

Model      Kerry Bush 

EM           51.3  - 47.7%   Kerry 337 EV; 75% UVA; unadjusted state aggregate exit poll:  52-47%.

EC            53.2  - 45.4      feasible mix of returning 2000 voters; 12:22am NEP vote shares.

 

Exit Polls

WPE/IMS 52.0 - 47.0%   Kerry 337 EV; aggregate state unadjusted

NEP          51.4 - 47.7        (12:22am Voted in 2000 category)

 

Recorded 50.7 – 48.3%  Bush 286-252 EV

 

2004 Election Calculator

 

 

 

       2004 Calculated

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Cast

66.94

57.07

1.74

Share

53.23%

45.39%

1.38%

EPoll (IMS)

51.98%

47.02%

1.00%

Switched

5.32

-5.76

0.44

Sw. Rate

8.0%

-10.1%

25.4%

 

 

2004 Recorded

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

59.027

62.041

1.225

122.293

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

 

Uncounted

 

 

 

2.588

0.794

0.069

3.450

75%

23%

2%

2.74%

 

2000 Election Calculator 

 

 

    2000 Calculated

 

Gore

Bush

Other

Cast

55.287

51.431

4.081

Pct

49.90%

46.42%

3.68%

Exit Poll

48.5%

46.2%

5.3%

Switched

0.25

-0.10

-0.14

Sw. Rate

0.4%

-0.2%

-3.5%

 

 

 

2000 Recorded

 

Gore

Bush

Other

Total

51.004

50.456

3.957

105.417

48.38%

47.86%

3.75%

 

Uncounted

 

 

4.039

1.077

0.269

5.385

75%

20%

5%

4.86%