The Final 2008 National Exit Poll Does Not Compute: Obama doubled the recorded vote margin

 

TruthIsAll

 

Jan. 17, 2009

 

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll does not compute - again. The landslide was denied. 

 

This analysis will show why Obama’s True Vote margin must be significantly higher than the 9.46 million (69.46-59.94m) recorded.

 

The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote. The Final 2008 NEP “Voted 2004” returning voter mix  (46 Bush/37 Kerry) is mathematically impossible since it implies that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37m total 2008 recorded vote.  Bush had 62.0 million recorded votes. Since approximately 3.0m died, there were 59.0m potential 2008 voters. Assuming that 95% (56 of 59m) voted in 2008, then the Final 2008 NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by over 4 million. Therefore, since the returning voter mix is not possible and the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded 2008 vote must also be impossible. The NEP also overstated the number of returning third-party voters by an inexplicable 4 million. There were 1.2m third-party voters in 2004; the NEP indicated that they comprised 4% (5.2m) of the 2008 electorate. The following analysis shows that the 3% (4m) difference should be applied to new voters. The NEP indicates that 13% were new – but that is 3% too low.

 

The 2008 Election Model (EM), which was based on the final state and national polls, matched the 365-173 recorded electoral vote projection with 365.3 expected EV. Obama’s projected 53.1- 44.9% vote share  (assuming he captured 60% of late undecided voters) was very close to the recorded 52.86-45.7% share. His projected share was 53.8% with 379 expected EV (assuming he had 75% of the undecided vote).  The final state pre-election polls were conducted 1 or more days prior to Election Day – so they could have missed a late Obama surge.

 

 

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

 

2004 returning voter mix forced to match the 2008 recorded vote

Obama margin: 9.3m

 

 

Implied

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

17.08

13%

71%

27%

2%

12.1

4.6

0.3

42.5%

Kerry

48.61

37%

89%

9%

2%

43.3

4.4

1.0

52.9%

Bush

60.43

46%

17%

82%

1%

10.3

49.6

0.6

4.6%

Other

5.25

4%

66%

24%

10%

3.5

1.3

0.5

114.3

Total

131.37

100%

52.62%

45.52%

1.86%

69.13

59.80

2.44

 

 

2008 Election Calculator – calculating the returning voter mix

 

The Election Calculator used  Final 2008 NEP vote shares and adjusted the 2004 recorded vote to determine a plausible returning voter mix.

 

The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter mix (Bush won by 50.73-48.27%).

Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8.5 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).

Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

In 2004, the difference between the calculated vote and recorded vote margin was also 13 million. Kerry lost the recorded vote by 51-48m. The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 67-57m.  A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.2% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used rather than the Final because the Bush shares were also inflated in the Final (along with the Bush returning voter mix) to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

These Final 2008 NEP Scenarios based on a plausible returning voter mix and these assumptions:

In 2004, there were 3.45m uncounted votes, 6 million died (1.2% annual mortality), 113.7m returning 2004 voters (95% turnout).

 

Scenario 1: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 recorded vote and

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

 

a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).

b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

Recorded

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

15.4

5.9

0.4

48.27%

Kerry

55.72

41.1%

89%

9%

2%

49.6

5.0

1.1

50.73%

Bush

56.86

42.0%

17%

82%

1%

9.7

46.6

0.6

1.00%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.1

 

Total

135.43

100.0%

55.69%

42.66%

1.65%

75.43

57.77

2.23

 

 

Scenario 2: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll and

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

 

a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.

b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

2004 Unadj.

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Exit Poll

DNV

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

15.4

5.9

0.43

52.0%

Kerry

59.13

43.7%

89%

9%

2%

52.6

5.3

1.18

47.0%

Bush

53.44

39.5%

17%

82%

1%

9.1

43.8

0.53

1.0%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.11

 

Total

135.43

100%

57.51%

40.82%

1.67%

77.88

55.28

2.27

 

 

 

Final National Exit Poll Returning Voter Scenarios

 

There has been a consistent pattern in the returning voter mix of the last three Final National Exit Polls.

 

2004 NEP “Voted in 2000”

The preliminary 12:22am NEP returning Bush/Gore voter mix was an implausible 41/39%; it was a mathematically impossible 43/37% in the Final.

Impossible because 43% of 122.3m is 52.6m; Bush only had 50.46m votes in 2000 – and only 48m were still alive to vote in 2004. Election stolen.

 

2006 NEP Midterm Generic “Voted in 2004”

The preliminary 7pm NEP returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%; it was an implausible 49/43% in the 2008 Final. Landslide denied.

 

2008 NEP “Voted in 2004”

The preliminary NEP Bush/Kerry voter mix is not yet available; it’s an impossible 46/37% in the Final. Landslide denied.

 

 

Obama did much better than Kerry among new voters and returning Bush voters.

 

1. Obama won 71% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2004.

Kerry won 54% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000 (57% in the preliminary NEP).

 

2. Obama won 89% of returning Kerry voters.

Kerry won 90% of returning Gore voters (91% in the preliminary NEP).

 

3. Obama won 17% of returning Bush voters.

Kerry won 9%  (10% in the preliminary NEP).

 

4. Obama won 66% of returning Other voters

Kerry won 71% (64% in the preliminary NEP).

 

 

Final 2008 National Exit Poll Anomalies

 

Now let’s look at the 2008 returning voter mix. Anomalies abound.

 

Are we to believe that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.3m) of the 2008 electorate? 

Bush had 62.0m votes in 2004. If 3.0m died, there were 1.2m more returning Bush voters than were alive in 2008. Impossible.

And assuming 95% of Bush voters returned to vote in 2008, then only 56.0m voted.

 

Are we to believe that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% of the 2008 electorate?

Kerry had 59.0m votes. If 2.8m died, then only 48.5m (86%) voted in 2008. Implausible.

 

Are we to believe that in 2008 returning Bush voters outnumbered Kerry voters by 11.8m when Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0m?

 

Are we to believe that returning other (third-party) party voters comprised just 1% (1.22m) of the 2004 electorate but that 5.2m (4%) voted in 2008? Where did the 4 million other third party voters come from? The NEP indicates that new voters comprised just 13% (17m) of the electorate and returning third-party voters 4% (5.2m). But 4% is impossible since 1.2m third-party votes were recorded in 2004. Reducing the third-party percentage 3% and applying the 3% to new voters raises the new voter share of the total to 16%. The change shows that there were 21m new voters, not 17m as the NEP indicates. 

 

The question that media political pundits (and bloggers) should ask is: How does the official 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded 2004 margin square with the Final 2008 46/37 returning voter mix? This anomaly is even more implauible since many analysts have concluded that Kerry easily won the 2004 True Vote; the number of returning (motivated) Kerry voters in 2008 had to exceed the number of returning (unmotivated) Bush voters.

 

If Kerry won by 52-47% (unadjusted exit poll) then Bush had 57.5m votes and 54.5m were alive in 2008 (5.6m fewer than the Final NEP indicates voted).

 

 

Final 2004 National Exit Poll Anomalies

 

The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. In 2004 the Final NEP reported an impossible 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. The Bush 43% share implied that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters, but he had just 50.5m. Since approximately 2.5 million died, only 48m were alive in 2004. And since approximately 2.0m did not vote, the 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 6.5 million.

 

It’s a classic case of déjà vu. In 2004, the impossible Final NEP “Voted 2000” returning voter mix (43 Bush/37 Gore) reversed Kerry’s 51-48% margin in the preliminary NEP to match the recorded 51-48% Bush margin. The corresponding preliminary 2008 NEP is not available.

 

Exit poll critics have consistently claimed that the impossible 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the Final 2004 NEP was due to returning Gore voters who misspoke to the exit pollsters about their vote in 2000. The rationale was that Gore voters told the exit pollsters that they voted for Bush because they wanted to be associated with an incumbent war-time president (even though Gore won the popular vote and Bush had a 48% approval rating). The same logic applies to 2008 – the returning Bush voter mix is also impossible. The Final NEP 46/37 returning voter mix should finally put that canard to rest; that is, unless the same argument is made that returning Kerry voters also misspoke and indicated they voted for Bush in spite of his current 22% approval rating.

 

Unfortunately, we don’t have the preliminary NEP return voter mix before it was “adjusted” for the Final. But we have analyzed preliminary exit polls from 2004 and the 2006 midterms.  In both elections, the preliminary NEP Democratic margin exceeded the Final by 6-7%. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their summary report in Jan. 2005. The average state exit poll (WPE) discrepancies indicated that Kerry won by 52-47%.

 

There is no reason to expect that 2008 was any different. If the 2004-2006 pattern holds, the preliminary 2008 NEP and the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate will show that Obama won 55-57% of the vote. This would match a number of National Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls (after allocating undecided voters).

 

Analysts who should know better never question the standard procedure of matching the Final Exit Poll to the recorded vote. The answer is invariably “but that’s how it’s always done”.  But what if the vote count is fraudulent? According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105.4m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70-80% of the uncounted vote. The possibility of fraud is never considered; it would result in incorrect Final NEP demographics across the board.

 

The Final National Exit Poll suffers from an endemic disease and requires an ongoing “fix” to match elections using bogus weights and vote shares.

 

 

The 2008 Election Calculator

 

The 2008 Election Calculator calculated the True Vote (see the tables below) using Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares. The following returning voter scenarios were assumed:

 

Since the Final NEP 46/37 returning voter mix is impossible, we will consider two possibilities: The first assumes the 2004 election was fraud-free (recorded vote shares were used to calculate the returning voter mix). The second assumes the election was fraudulent (unadjusted aggregate state exit poll shares were used to calculate the mix). The Final 2008 NEP vote shares and a 3% uncounted vote rate are assumed.

 

Scenario 1 (2004 election was fraud-free)

Use the 2004 recorded vote (Bush won by 50.7-48.3%) for calculating the returning voter mix.

Obama wins the True Vote by 55.6- 42.7%  (75.0-57.6m).

 

Scenario 2 (2004 election was fraudulent)

Use the unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (Kerry won by 52-47%) for calculating the returning voter mix.

Obama wins the True Vote by 57.8- 40.6% (77.9-54.5m).

 

The sensitivity analysis tables display Obama’s True Vote share and vote margin:

 

Table 1: Obama’s share of returning Kerry and Bush voters

Table 2: Obama’s share of returning Kerry and new voters 

 

Table 3: Kerry vote shares and Obama’s share of returning Bush voters.

Table 4: Kerry vote shares and Obama’s share of new voters.

 

Table 5: Obama’s share of returning Bush and new voters.

Table 6: Kerry vote shares and Obama’s share of Kerry voters.

 

Table 7: Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008.

Table 8: 2008 total uncounted vote rates and Kerry’s 2004 uncounted vote share.

 

Table 9: Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008.

Table 10: 2008 total uncounted vote rates and Obama’s uncounted vote share.

 

 

Scenario 1: 2004 Recorded Vote

 

 

2004 Recorded Vote

 

 

 

2008

 

Calculated  True Vote

 

 

 

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

21.405

15.84%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

59.03

2.58

61.61

2.96

58.65

95%

55.721

41.24%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

62.04

0.83

62.87

3.02

59.85

95%

56.857

42.08%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

95%

1.142

0.84%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

113.7

135.125

100%

55.7%

42.7%

1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.125

75.208

57.691

2.225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.9%

45.6%

1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.1

69.3

59.8

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 1

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 2

 

 

 

 

Share of

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Share of

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

  Kerry voters

Share of Bush voters

 

 

Kerry voters

 

Share of New voters

 

 

55.7%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

55.7%

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

93%

54.8%

56.0%

57.3%

58.6%

59.8%

93%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

58.9%

91%

54.0%

55.2%

56.5%

57.7%

59.0%

91%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

89%

53.1%

54.4%

55.7%

56.9%

58.2%

89%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.2%

87%

52.3%

53.6%

54.8%

56.1%

57.4%

87%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

56.4%

85%

51.5%

52.7%

54.0%

55.3%

56.5%

85%

52.4%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.52

11.0%

14.0%

17.0%

20.0%

23.0%

17.52

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

93%

15.2

18.6

22.0

25.4

28.8

93%

17.7

19.8

22.0

24.1

26.3

91%

12.9

16.3

19.7

23.2

26.6

91%

15.5

17.6

19.7

21.9

24.0

89%

10.7

14.1

17.5

20.9

24.3

89%

13.2

15.4

17.5

19.7

21.8

87%

8.5

11.9

15.3

18.7

22.1

87%

11.0

13.1

15.3

17.4

19.6

85%

6.2

9.6

13.1

16.5

19.9

85%

8.8

10.9

13.1

15.2

17.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 3

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 4

 

 

 

 

 Kerry 2004

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Kerry 2004

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

 vote share

 

Share of Bush voters

 

 

vote share

 

Share of New voters

 

 

55.7%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

55.7%

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

53%

56.2%

57.3%

58.4%

59.6%

60.7%

53%

56.9%

57.7%

58.4%

59.2%

60.0%

52%

55.5%

56.7%

57.9%

59.0%

60.2%

52%

56.3%

57.1%

57.9%

58.7%

59.4%

51%

54.9%

56.1%

57.3%

58.5%

59.7%

51%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

58.9%

49%

53.6%

54.8%

56.1%

57.3%

58.6%

49%

54.5%

55.3%

56.1%

56.9%

57.7%

48%

53.0%

54.2%

55.5%

56.8%

58.0%

48%

53.9%

54.7%

55.5%

56.3%

57.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.52

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

17.52

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

53%

18.9

22.0

25.1

28.2

31.3

53%

20.8

23.0

25.1

27.3

29.4

52%

17.2

20.3

23.5

26.7

29.8

52%

19.2

21.4

23.5

25.6

27.8

51%

15.4

18.7

21.9

25.1

28.4

51%

17.6

19.8

21.9

24.0

26.2

49%

12.0

15.3

18.7

22.1

25.4

49%

14.4

16.6

18.7

20.8

23.0

48%

10.2

13.7

17.1

20.5

23.9

48%

12.8

15.0

17.1

19.2

21.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 5

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 6

 

 

 

 

Share of

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Kerry 2004

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

New Voters

 

Share of Bush voters

 

 

vote share

 

Share of Kerry voters

 

 

55.7%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

55.7%

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

81%

54.7%

56.0%

57.2%

58.5%

59.8%

53%

56.6%

57.5%

58.4%

59.4%

60.3%

76%

53.9%

55.2%

56.5%

57.7%

59.0%

52%

56.1%

57.0%

57.9%

58.7%

59.6%

71%

53.1%

54.4%

55.7%

56.9%

58.2%

51%

55.5%

56.4%

57.3%

58.1%

59.0%

66%

52.3%

53.6%

54.9%

56.1%

57.4%

49%

54.4%

55.3%

56.1%

56.9%

57.8%

61%

51.5%

52.8%

54.1%

55.3%

56.6%

48%

53.9%

54.7%

55.5%

56.3%

57.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.52

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

17.52

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

81%

15.0

18.4

21.8

25.2

28.6

53%

20.2

22.7

25.1

27.5

30.0

76%

12.8

16.2

19.7

23.1

26.5

52%

18.7

21.1

23.5

25.9

28.3

71%

10.7

14.1

17.5

20.9

24.3

51%

17.2

19.6

21.9

24.3

26.6

66%

8.6

12.0

15.4

18.8

22.2

49%

14.2

16.4

18.7

21.0

23.2

61%

6.4

9.8

13.2

16.6

20.1

48%

12.7

14.9

17.1

19.3

21.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 7

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 8

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

2008 Unctd

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Voter turnout

 

Kerry Voter turnout

 

 

% Cast

 

Kerry Share of 2004 Uncounted

 

55.7%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

55.7%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

91%

56.3%

56.5%

56.6%

56.8%

56.9%

5%

55.81%

55.89%

55.97%

56.06%

56.14%

93%

55.8%

56.0%

56.1%

56.3%

56.4%

4%

55.65%

55.73%

55.82%

55.90%

55.98%

95%

55.3%

55.5%

55.7%

55.8%

56.0%

3%

55.49%

55.58%

55.66%

55.74%

55.82%

97%

54.9%

55.0%

55.2%

55.3%

55.5%

2%

55.33%

55.42%

55.50%

55.58%

55.67%

99%

54.4%

54.5%

54.7%

54.9%

55.0%

0%

55.01%

55.10%

55.18%

55.27%

55.36%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.5

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.52

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

17.52

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

91%

19.3

19.7

20.1

20.5

21.0

5%

18.8

18.8

18.8

18.8

18.8

93%

18.0

18.4

18.8

19.2

19.7

4%

18.1

18.1

18.1

18.1

18.1

95%

16.7

17.1

17.5

17.9

18.4

3%

17.5

17.5

17.5

17.5

17.5

97%

15.4

15.8

16.2

16.6

17.1

2%

16.9

16.9

16.9

16.9

16.9

99%

14.1

14.5

14.9

15.3

15.8

0%

15.7

15.7

15.7

15.7

15.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 9

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 10

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

2008 Unctd

 

Obama Recorded Vote Share (net of Unctd)

Voter turnout

 

Kerry Voter turnout

 

 

% Cast

 

Obama Share of Uncounted

 

55.7%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

55.1%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

91%

56.3%

56.5%

56.6%

56.8%

56.9%

5%

55.50%

55.24%

54.97%

54.71%

54.45%

93%

55.8%

56.0%

56.1%

56.3%

56.4%

4%

55.43%

55.23%

55.02%

54.81%

54.60%

95%

55.3%

55.5%

55.7%

55.8%

56.0%

3%

55.37%

55.21%

55.06%

54.91%

54.75%

97%

54.9%

55.0%

55.2%

55.3%

55.5%

2%

55.31%

55.20%

55.10%

55.00%

54.90%

99%

54.4%

54.5%

54.7%

54.9%

55.0%

0%

55.18%

55.18%

55.18%

55.18%

55.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.52

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

15.45

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

91%

19.3

19.7

20.1

20.5

21.0

5%

15.3

15.3

15.3

15.3

15.3

93%

18.0

18.4

18.8

19.2

19.7

4%

15.4

15.4

15.4

15.4

15.4

95%

16.7

17.1

17.5

17.9

18.4

3%

15.5

15.5

15.5

15.5

15.5

97%

15.4

15.8

16.2

16.6

17.1

2%

15.5

15.5

15.5

15.5

15.5

99%

14.1

14.5

14.9

15.3

15.8

0%

15.7

15.7

15.7

15.7

15.7

 

Sensitivity Analysis 11

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 12

 

 

 

 

Voter

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Voter

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Mortality

 

Kerry Voter turnout

 

 

Mortality

 

Bush Voter Turnout

 

 

55.7%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

55.7%

99%

97%

95%

93%

91%

1.6%

55.6%

55.8%

56.0%

56.1%

56.3%

1.6%

55.0%

55.5%

56.0%

56.4%

56.9%

1.4%

55.5%

55.7%

55.8%

56.0%

56.1%

1.4%

54.9%

55.3%

55.8%

56.3%

56.8%

1.2%

55.4%

55.5%

55.7%

55.8%

56.0%

1.2%

54.7%

55.2%

55.7%

56.2%

56.6%

1.0%

55.3%

55.4%

55.6%

55.7%

55.9%

1.0%

54.6%

55.1%

55.6%

56.0%

56.5%

0.8%

55.1%

55.3%

55.4%

55.6%

55.8%

0.8%

54.5%

55.0%

55.4%

55.9%

56.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

17.65

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

17.65

99%

97%

95%

93%

91%

1.6%

17.5

17.9

18.4

18.8

19.2

2%

15.8

17.1

18.4

19.6

20.9

1.4%

17.2

17.6

18.0

18.4

18.8

1%

15.4

16.7

18.0

19.3

20.6

1.2%

16.8

17.2

17.7

18.1

18.5

1%

15.0

16.3

17.7

19.0

20.3

1.0%

16.4

16.9

17.3

17.7

18.2

1%

14.7

16.0

17.3

18.6

19.9

0.8%

16.1

16.5

16.9

17.4

17.8

1%

14.3

15.6

16.9

18.3

19.6

 

 

Scenario 2: 2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll

 

 

 2004 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate (WPE/IMS)

 

2008

 

Calculated  True Vote

 

 

 

Exit Poll

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

21.405

15.84%

71%

27%

2%

Kerry

63.59

1.79

65.38

3.14

62.25

95%

59.134

43.76%

89%

9%

2%

Bush

57.47

1.62

59.09

2.84

56.26

95%

53.444

39.55%

17%

82%

1%

Other

1.23

0.03

1.26

0.06

1.20

95%

1.142

0.84%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

122.30

3.45

125.74

6.04

119.70

113.7

135.125

100%

57.5%

40.9%

1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

135.125

77.666

55.199

2.259

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

52.9%

45.6%

1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

131.1

69.3

59.8

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 1

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 2

 

 

 

 

Share of

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Share of

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

  Kerry voters

Share of Bush voters

 

 

Kerry voters

 

Share of New voters

 

 

57.5%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

57.5%

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

93%

56.9%

58.0%

59.2%

60.4%

61.6%

93%

57.6%

58.4%

59.2%

60.0%

60.8%

91%

56.0%

57.2%

58.4%

59.5%

60.7%

91%

56.8%

57.6%

58.4%

59.1%

59.9%

89%

55.1%

56.3%

57.5%

58.7%

59.9%

89%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

58.3%

59.1%

87%

54.2%

55.4%

56.6%

57.8%

59.0%

87%

55.0%

55.8%

56.6%

57.4%

58.2%

85%

53.4%

54.5%

55.7%

56.9%

58.1%

85%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

22.47

11.0%

14.0%

17.0%

20.0%

23.0%

22.47

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

93%

20.8

24.0

27.2

30.4

33.6

93%

22.9

25.1

27.2

29.3

31.5

91%

18.4

21.6

24.8

28.0

31.2

91%

20.6

22.7

24.8

27.0

29.1

89%

16.1

19.3

22.5

25.7

28.9

89%

18.2

20.3

22.5

24.6

26.7

87%

13.7

16.9

20.1

23.3

26.5

87%

15.8

18.0

20.1

22.2

24.4

85%

11.3

14.5

17.7

20.9

24.1

85%

13.5

15.6

17.7

19.9

22.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 3

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 4

 

 

 

 

 Kerry 2004

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Kerry 2004

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

 vote share

 

Share of Bush voters

 

 

vote share

 

Share of New voters

 

 

57.5%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

57.5%

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

53%

55.8%

56.9%

58.1%

59.2%

60.4%

53%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

58.9%

59.7%

52%

55.1%

56.3%

57.5%

58.7%

59.9%

52%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

58.3%

59.1%

51%

54.4%

55.7%

56.9%

58.1%

59.3%

51%

55.3%

56.1%

56.9%

57.7%

58.5%

49%

53.1%

54.4%

55.7%

56.9%

58.2%

49%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.2%

48%

52.5%

53.8%

55.1%

56.3%

57.6%

48%

53.5%

54.3%

55.1%

55.8%

56.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

22.47

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

22.47

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

53%

17.8

21.0

24.1

27.3

30.4

53%

19.8

22.0

24.1

26.3

28.4

52%

16.1

19.3

22.5

25.7

28.9

52%

18.2

20.3

22.5

24.6

26.7

51%

14.3

17.5

20.8

24.1

27.4

51%

16.5

18.7

20.8

23.0

25.1

49%

10.7

14.1

17.5

20.9

24.3

49%

13.2

15.4

17.5

19.7

21.8

48%

8.9

12.4

15.9

19.4

22.8

48%

11.6

13.7

15.9

18.0

20.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 5

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 6

 

 

 

 

Share of

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Kerry 2004

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

New Voters

 

Share of Bush voters

 

 

vote share

 

Share of Kerry voters

 

 

57.5%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

57.5%

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

81%

56.7%

57.9%

59.1%

60.2%

61.4%

53%

56.3%

57.2%

58.1%

59.0%

59.9%

76%

55.9%

57.1%

58.3%

59.5%

60.6%

52%

55.7%

56.6%

57.5%

58.4%

59.2%

71%

55.1%

56.3%

57.5%

58.7%

59.9%

51%

55.2%

56.0%

56.9%

57.7%

58.6%

66%

54.3%

55.5%

56.7%

57.9%

59.1%

49%

54.0%

54.8%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

61%

53.5%

54.7%

55.9%

57.1%

58.3%

48%

53.4%

54.2%

55.1%

55.9%

56.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Margin (millions)

 

 

22.47

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

22.47

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

81%

20.3

23.5

26.7

30.0

33.2

53%

19.3

21.7

24.1

26.5

28.9

76%

18.2

21.4

24.6

27.8

31.0

52%

17.7

20.1

22.5

24.8

27.2

71%

16.1

19.3

22.5

25.7

28.9

51%

16.2

18.5

20.8

23.1

25.5

66%

13.9

17.1

20.3

23.5

26.7

49%

13.1

15.3

17.5

19.7

22.0

61%

11.8

15.0

18.2

21.4

24.6

48%

11.5

13.7

15.9

18.1

20.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 7

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 8

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

2008 Unctd

 

Obama Vote Share

 

 

Voter turnout

 

Kerry Voter turnout

 

 

% Cast

 

Kerry Share of 2004 Uncounted

 

57.5%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

57.5%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

91%

58.0%

58.2%

58.4%

58.5%

58.7%

5%

57.97%

58.05%

58.13%

58.21%

58.29%

93%

57.6%

57.8%

57.9%

58.1%

58.3%