The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

  

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).  This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner.  The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

 

Assuming that Kerry's 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator  model which determined that he won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used to calculate the vote.

 

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.  

 

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:

1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares

2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares

3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial  recorded votes

 

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

 

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:

1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.

2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True vote.

3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm

 

 

Final Recorded Vote

Bush              62,040,610       50.73%

Kerry             59,028,439       48.27%

Other              1,224,499        1.00%

Total            122,293,548        100%

 

Initial 117.28m votes                        

Bush              59,834,866       51.02%

Kerry             56,373,514       48.07%

Other             1,073,874        0.91%

Total            117,282,254        100%

 

Late 5.01m votes

Bush              2,205,744        44.02%

Kerry             2,654,925        52.98%

Other              150,625          3.00%

Total             5,011,294         100%

 

Other:

Nader             406,940    0.35%

Badnarik          384,174    0.33%

Peroutka          132,054    0.11%

Cobb              107,400    0.09%

Peltier            21,616    0.02%

Brown              10,283    0.01%

Harris              6,962    0.01%

Calero              4,445    0.00%

 

 

Kerry Vote Share Summary

Recorded   Kerry    Votes

Final      48.27%   122.29m

Initial    48.07%   117.28m

Late       52.98%     5.01m

 

State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE

Method     Kerry   Avg WPE Wtd Avg   Description

VNS        51.81%   5.95%   7.09%    VNS: 4 outliers removed from average

DSS        52.15%   6.73%   7.77%    Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed

IMS        51.91%   6.29%   7.37%    Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed

 

National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)

3:59pm     50.48% 8349 respondents

7:33pm     50.78% 11027  

12:22am    50.78% 13047

Final      47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded votes)

 

Model      53.23% (Election Calculator-see below)

 

______________________________________________________________________________

 


Kerry Late Average Vote Share

 

Late     Exit     Late      Diff

100k+    55.1%    54.8%     0.3%

30-100k  47.0%    49.5%    -2.6%

10-30k   50.2%    54.6%    -4.4%

0-10k    48.3%    51.4%    -3.2%

                                  

All      50.0%    52.5%    -2.5%

 

 

Kerry 2-party Regional Weighted Average Vote Share                                             

 

* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes

 

        Final   Initial    Late    Change    WPE      Exit

Wtd      48.8%   48.5%     54.3%    5.8%    5.8%     51.6%

Unwtd    48.4%   48.4%     52.0%    3.7%    6.0%     51.5%

 

Weighted

East     56.5%    56.2%    62.4%    6.2%     9.7%     61.3%

Midw     48.1%    48.1%    56.1%    8.1%     3.4%     49.8%

South    42.7%    42.6%    46.6%    4.0%     5.8%     45.6%

West     41.7%    41.7%    41.9%    0.2%     4.8%     44.1%

FarW     53.2%    53.3%    53.0%    -0.2%    6.4%     56.4%

 

        Final    Initial   Late    Change     WPE      Exit    

East                                               

CT       55.3%    55.3%    56.3%    1.0%     15.7%    63.3%

DC*      90.5%    90.5%    90.5%    0.0%     3.4%     92.2%

DE*      53.8%    53.8%    67.3%    13.4%    15.9%    61.9%

MA       62.7%    62.7%    71.5%    8.8%     5.8%     65.7%

MD       56.6%    56.2%    60.3%    4.1%     8.1%     60.7%

                                                   

ME*      54.6%    54.5%    87.3%    33.0%    3.8%     56.5%

NH*      50.7%    50.7%    55.8%    5.2%     13.6%    57.6%

NJ       53.4%    53.1%    57.6%    4.5%     9.7%     58.3%

NY       59.3%    58.8%    65.8%    7.0%     11.4%    65.1%

PA       51.3%    51.1%    58.6%    7.5%     8.8%     55.7%

RI       60.6%    60.5%    62.6%    2.1%     4.7%     63.0%

VT*      60.3%    60.3%    48.7%    -11.6%   15.0%    68.0%

                                                   

        Final    Initial   Late     Change    WPE     Exit    

Midwest                                            

IA       49.7%    49.5%    62.1%    12.6%    3.0%     51.2%

IL       55.2%    55.1%    70.3%    15.2%    4.4%     57.4%

IN       39.6%    39.5%    62.0%    22.6%    1.5%     40.3%

KS       37.1%    37.0%    42.7%    5.8%     1.7%     38.0%

OH       48.9%    48.7%    56.2%    7.4%     10.9%    54.4%

                                                   

MI       51.7%    51.7%    58.4%    6.7%     6.3%     54.9%

MN       51.8%    51.8%    47.9%    -3.9%    9.3%     56.5%

MO       46.4%    46.3%    63.8%    17.5%    5.8%     49.3%

ND*      36.1%    36.1%    37.4%    1.3%     -5.2%    33.4%

NE       33.2%    33.0%    43.6%    10.6%    8.1%     37.3%

                                                   

OK*      34.4%    34.4%    34.4%    0.0%     -1.9%    33.5%

SD       39.1%    39.1%    32.8%    -6.3%    -4.2%    37.0%

WI       50.2%    50.2%    36.3%    -13.9%    4.7%    52.6%

 

        Final    Initial   Late     Change   WPE      Exit    

South                                              

AL*      37.1%    37.1%    67.6%    30.6%    11.3%    42.8%

AR       45.1%    45.0%    48.2%    3.2%     0.5%     45.3%

FL       47.5%    47.5%    50.5%    3.0%     7.6%     51.3%

GA       41.6%    41.6%    46.2%    4.6%     2.2%     42.8%

LA       42.7%    42.6%    79.5%    36.9%    3.8%     44.6%

                                                   

KY*      40.0%    40.0%    30.2%    -9.8%    -0.1%  &nbbsp; 39.9%

MS       40.1%    40.0%    44.2%    4.3%     11.3%    46.2%

NC       43.8%    43.7%    45.4%    1.6%     11.3%    49.4%

SC       41.4%    41.3%    45.1%    3.8%     10.0%    46.4%

TN*      42.8%    42.8%    56.0%    13.2%    0.5%     43.1%

                                                   

VA       45.9%    45.8%    48.8%    3.0%     7.9%     49.8%

WV       43.5%    43.6%    40.5%    -3.0%    -5.8%  &nbbsp; 40.6%

TX       38.5%    38.5%    45.3%    6.8%     4.8%     40.9%

 

        Final    Initial   Late     Change   WPE      Exit    

West                                               

CO       47.6%    47.3%    53.6%    6.3%     6.1%     50.7%

ID*      30.7%    30.7%    15.4%    -15.3%   1.0%   &nbbsp; 31.2%

MT*      39.5%    39.5%    37.0%    -2.5%    -1.8%  &nbbsp; 38.6%

NM       49.6%    49.4%    61.4%    11.9%    7.8%     53.5%

NV       48.7%    48.7%    50.4%    1.8%     10.1%    53.8%

                                                   

UT       26.7%    27.1%    21.4%    -5.7%    6.4%  &nbssp;  29.9%

WY*      29.7%    29.7%    23.8%    -5.9%    4.3%  &nbssp;  31.9%

 

        Final    Initial   Late     Change   WPE      Exit    

Far West                                           

AK       36.8%    36.2%    39.0%    2.8%     9.6%     41.7%

AZ       44.7%    44.7%    44.7%    -0.1%    4.6%  &nbssp;  47.0%

CA       55.0%    55.2%    54.4%    -0.8%    10.9%  &nbbsp; 60.6%

HI*      54.4%    54.4%    82.6%    28.3%    4.7%     56.8%

OR       52.1%    52.0%    54.6%    2.6%     0.0%     52.1%

WA       53.6%    53.5%    57.7%    4.2%     8.4%     57.9%

 

 


State Recorded Votes

(in thousands)

 

         Final                              Initial                             Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207    810

                                                                                                          

East     26421    14744    11361    316      25262    14112    10980    170      1159     632      381     146

Midwest  32404    15470    16670    264      31960    15320    16552    87       444      150      117     177

South    37662    15943    21436    284      37142    15790    21261    90       521      153      175     194

West     5936     2437     3404     96       5699     2360     3298     41       238      76       106      56

Far West 19870    10435    9171     264      16592    8822     7743     26       3278     1613     1428     238

                                                                                                          

East                                                                                                    

CT       1579     857      694      27       1544     846      685      13       35       11       9        15

DC*      228      203      21       3        226      203      21       1        2        0        0        2

DE*      375      200      172      3        374      200      172      2        2        0        0        1

MA       2912     1804     1071     37       2861     1794     1067     0        51       10       4        37

MD       2387     1334     1025     27       2186     1224     952      11       200      111      73       17

                                                                                                          

ME*      741      397      330      14       734      395      330      8        7        1        0        5

NH*      678      341      331      6        675      340      331      4        2        0        0        2

NJ       3612     1911     1670     30       3405     1799     1587     19       206      112      83       12

NY       7391     4314     2963     114      6892     3993     2796     104      499      321      167      11

PA       5770     2938     2794     38       5643     2886     2757     0        127      52       37       38

RI       437      260      169      8        413      247      162      4        24       12       7        4

VT*      312      184      121      7        309      184      121      4        4        0        0        3

                                                                                                          

 

         Final                              Initial                            Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL     KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207     810

Midwest                                                                                                 

IA       1507     742      752      13       1486     733      747      6        21       9        5        7

IL       5274     2892     2346     37       5208     2871     2337     0        67       21       9        37

IN       2468     969      1479     20       2435     961      1474     0        33       8        5        20

KS       1188     435      736      16       1147     421      718      9        40       14       19       7

OH       5628     2741     2860     27       5456     2660     2796     0        172      82       64       27

                                                                                                          

MI       4839     2479     2314     46       4810     2475     2311     24       29       4        3        22

MN       2828     1445     1347     37       2807     1444     1345     19       21       1        2        18

MO       2731     1259     1456     16       2707     1254     1453     0        25       5        3        16

ND*      313      111      197      5        310      111      196      4        2        0        1        1

NE       778      254      513      11       762      249      507      6        17       5        6        5

                                                                                                          

OK*      1464     504      960      0        1464     504      960      0        0        0        0        0

SD       388      149      233      6        386      149      233      4        2        0        0        2

WI       2997     1490     1478     29       2982     1489     1477     16       15       1        1        13

 

         Final                              Initial                            Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207     810

South                                                                                                   

AL*      1883     694      1176     13       1876     693      1176     7        8        1        0        6

AR       1055     470      573      12       1037     464      567      6        18       6        6        6

FL       7610     3584     3965     62       7563     3575     3956     33       47       9        9        29

GA       3302     1366     1914     21       3235     1345     1890     0        67       21       24       21

LA       1943     820      1102     21       1928     819      1102     7        15       1        0        14

                                                                                                          

KY*      1796     713      1069     14       1790     712      1069     9        6        0        1        5

MS       1152     458      685      9        1118     445      669      3        35       13       16       6

NC       3501     1526     1961     14       3395     1484     1911     0        106      42       50       14

SC       1618     662      938      18       1580     650      924      5        38       11       14       13

TN*      2437     1036     1384     16       2437     1036     1384     16       0        0        0        0

                                                                                                          

VA       3198     1455     1717     27       3095     1417     1678     0        103      37       39       27

WV       756      327      424      6        744      322      418      4        12       4        6        2

TX       7411     2833     4527     51       7344     2826     4518     0        67       7        8        51

 

         Final                              Initial                            Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207     810

West                                                                                                    

CO       2130     1002     1101     27       2018     950      1056     12       112      52       45       15

ID*      598      181      409      8        589      181      408      0        9        0        1        8

MT*      450      174      266      11       445      173      265      6        5        0        1        5

NM       756      371      377      8        742      365      373      4        14       6        4        4

NV       830      397      419      14       813      393      415      5        16       4        4        9

                                                                                                          

UT       928      241      664      23       851      227      613      11       77       14       51       12

WY*      243      71       168      5        240      71       167      3        3        0        1        2

                                                                                                          

Far West                                                                                                

AK       313      111      191      11       242      86       152      4        71       25       39       7

AZ       2013     894      1104     15       1644     735      908      0        369      158      196      15

CA       12420    6745     5510     165      9831     5427     4403     0        2589     1318     1106     165

HI*      429      232      194      3        425      231      194      0        4        0        0        3

OR       1837     943      867      27       1714     891      823      0        123      52       44       27

WA       2859     1510     1305     44       2736     1452     1262     22       123      58       43       22

 

 

 


Calculated True Vote

 

         Late Share       Recorded    +Unctd = True Vote    

Kerry    2.65     53.0%    64.79        2.58   67.37 53.6%

Bush     2.21     44.0%    53.80        0.79   54.59 43.4%

Other    0.15     3.0%     3.71         0.07    3.78 3.0%

 

Total    5.01     100%     122.30       3.45   125.74 100%

 

 

Election Calculator

 

Assumptions:

Uncounted Votes                   

         Cast    Census   Uncounted

2004     2.74%    125.74   3.45

2000     4.86%    110.80   5.38

                         

Uncounted Vote share

2004             2000    

Kerry    75%      Gore     75%

Bush     23%      Bush     20%

Other    2%       Nader    5%

                         

2000 Annual Voter Mortality                        

Total    1.22%           

Gore share 50.4%         

                         

2000 Voter Turnout in 2004                         

Gore     95%             

Bush     95%             

Other    95%             

 

2000 Recorded                                      

Voted    Rec      Unctd    Cast     Deaths   Alive   

Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.71     52.33   

Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.47     49.07   

Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02    

                                                   

Total    105.42   5.38     110.80   5.38     105.42  

                                                   

2004 Calculated                   

     Turnout     Voted    Weight   Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV       -      25.59 &   20.4%    57%      41%      2%

Gore     95%     49.71    39.5%    91%      8%       1%

Bush     95%     46.61    37.1%    10%      90%      0%

Other    95%      3.82    3.0%     64%      17%      19%

                                           

        100.15   125.74    100%   53.23%    45.39%   1.38%

                                  66.93     57.07    1.74