The Final 5 Million Recorded
Votes
There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.
Assuming that Kerry's 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that he won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used to calculate the vote.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm
Final
Recorded Vote
Bush
62,040,610 50.73%
Kerry
59,028,439
48.27%
Other
1,224,499
1.00%
Total
122,293,548
100%
Initial
117.28m votes
Bush
59,834,866 51.02%
Kerry
56,373,514 48.07%
Other
1,073,874
0.91%
Total
117,282,254
100%
Late
5.01m votes
Bush
2,205,744 44.02%
Kerry
2,654,925 52.98%
Other
150,625
3.00%
Total
5,011,294
100%
Other:
Nader
406,940 0.35%
Badnarik
384,174
0.33%
Peroutka
132,054
0.11%
Cobb
107,400 0.09%
Peltier
21,616
0.02%
Brown
10,283 0.01%
Harris
6,962 0.01%
Calero
4,445
0.00%
Kerry
Vote Share Summary
Recorded Kerry
Votes
Final
48.27% 122.29m
Initial 48.07%
117.28m
Late
52.98% 5.01m
State
Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE
Method
Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg
Description
VNS
51.81% 5.95%
7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed from average
DSS
52.15% 6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary
Screen: 4 outliers removed
IMS
51.91% 6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen:
no outliers removed
National
Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)
3:59pm 50.48%
8349 respondents
7:33pm 50.78%
11027
12:22am 50.78% 13047
Final
47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded votes)
Model
53.23% (Election Calculator-see below)
______________________________________________________________________________
Kerry Late Average Vote
Share
Late
Exit Late Diff
100k+
55.1% 54.8% 0.3%
30-100k 47.0%
49.5% -2.6%
10-30k
50.2%
54.6% -4.4%
0-10k
48.3% 51.4% -3.2%
All
50.0% 52.5% -2.5%
Kerry 2-party Regional
Weighted Average Vote
Share
* indicates state had less than 2000 late
votes
Final
Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Wtd
48.8% 48.5% 54.3%
5.8% 5.8% 51.6%
Unwtd
48.4% 48.4% 52.0%
3.7% 6.0% 51.5%
Weighted
East
56.5% 56.2% 62.4%
6.2% 9.7% 61.3%
Midw
48.1% 48.1% 56.1%
8.1% 3.4% 49.8%
South
42.7% 42.6% 46.6%
4.0% 5.8% 45.6%
West
41.7% 41.7% 41.9%
0.2% 4.8% 44.1%
FarW
53.2% 53.3% 53.0%
-0.2% 6.4% 56.4%
Final Initial Late
Change
WPE Exit
East
CT
55.3% 55.3% 56.3%
1.0% 15.7% 63.3%
DC*
90.5% 90.5% 90.5%
0.0% 3.4% 92.2%
DE*
53.8% 53.8% 67.3%
13.4% 15.9% 61.9%
MA
62.7% 62.7% 71.5%
8.8% 5.8% 65.7%
MD
56.6% 56.2% 60.3%
4.1% 8.1% 60.7%
ME*
54.6% 54.5% 87.3%
33.0% 3.8% 56.5%
NH*
50.7% 50.7% 55.8% 5.2%
13.6% 57.6%
NJ
53.4% 53.1% 57.6%
4.5% 9.7% 58.3%
NY
59.3% 58.8% 65.8%
7.0% 11.4% 65.1%
PA
51.3% 51.1% 58.6%
7.5% 8.8% 55.7%
RI
60.6% 60.5% 62.6%
2.1% 4.7% 63.0%
VT*
60.3% 60.3% 48.7%
-11.6% 15.0% 68.0%
Final Initial Late
Change
WPE Exit
Midwest
IA
49.7% 49.5% 62.1%
12.6% 3.0% 51.2%
IL
55.2% 55.1% 70.3%
15.2% 4.4% 57.4%
IN
39.6% 39.5% 62.0%
22.6% 1.5% 40.3%
KS
37.1% 37.0% 42.7%
5.8% 1.7% 38.0%
OH
48.9% 48.7% 56.2% 7.4%
10.9% 54.4%
MI
51.7% 51.7% 58.4%
6.7% 6.3% 54.9%
MN
51.8% 51.8% 47.9%
-3.9% 9.3% 56.5%
MO
46.4% 46.3% 63.8%
17.5% 5.8% 49.3%
ND*
36.1% 36.1% 37.4%
1.3% -5.2% 33.4%
NE
33.2% 33.0% 43.6%
10.6% 8.1% 37.3%
OK*
34.4% 34.4% 34.4%
0.0% -1.9% 33.5%
SD
39.1% 39.1% 32.8%
-6.3% -4.2% 37.0%
WI
50.2% 50.2% 36.3%
-13.9% 4.7% 52.6%
Final
Initial Late
Change WPE Exit
South
AL*
37.1% 37.1% 67.6% 30.6%
11.3% 42.8%
AR
45.1% 45.0% 48.2%
3.2% 0.5% 45.3%
FL
47.5% 47.5% 50.5%
3.0% 7.6% 51.3%
GA
41.6% 41.6% 46.2%
4.6% 2.2% 42.8%
LA
42.7% 42.6% 79.5%
36.9% 3.8% 44.6%
KY*
40.0% 40.0% 30.2%
-9.8% -0.1% &nbbsp; 39.9%
MS
40.1% 40.0% 44.2%
4.3% 11.3% 46.2%
NC
43.8% 43.7% 45.4%
1.6% 11.3% 49.4%
SC
41.4% 41.3% 45.1%
3.8% 10.0% 46.4%
TN*
42.8% 42.8% 56.0%
13.2% 0.5% 43.1%
VA
45.9% 45.8% 48.8%
3.0% 7.9% 49.8%
WV
43.5% 43.6% 40.5%
-3.0% -5.8% &nbbsp; 40.6%
TX
38.5% 38.5% 45.3%
6.8% 4.8% 40.9%
Final
Initial Late
Change WPE
Exit
West
CO
47.6% 47.3% 53.6%
6.3% 6.1% 50.7%
ID*
30.7% 30.7% 15.4%
-15.3% 1.0% &nbbsp; 31.2%
MT*
39.5% 39.5% 37.0%
-2.5% -1.8% &nbbsp; 38.6%
NM
49.6% 49.4% 61.4%
11.9% 7.8% 53.5%
NV
48.7% 48.7% 50.4%
1.8% 10.1% 53.8%
UT
26.7% 27.1% 21.4%
-5.7% 6.4% &nbssp; 29.9%
WY*
29.7% 29.7% 23.8%
-5.9% 4.3% &nbssp; 31.9%
Final
Initial Late
Change WPE Exit
Far
West
AK
36.8% 36.2% 39.0%
2.8% 9.6% 41.7%
AZ
44.7% 44.7% 44.7%
-0.1% 4.6% &nbssp; 47.0%
CA
55.0% 55.2% 54.4%
-0.8% 10.9% &nbbsp; 60.6%
HI*
54.4% 54.4% 82.6%
28.3% 4.7% 56.8%
OR
52.1% 52.0% 54.6%
2.6% 0.0% 52.1%
WA
53.6% 53.5% 57.7%
4.2% 8.4% 57.9%
State Recorded Votes
(in thousands)
Final
Initial
Late
TOTAL KERRY
BUSH OTHER TOTAL
KERRY BUSH NADER
TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other
122294 59028 62041
1224 116654 56404
59834 414 5640
2624 2207 810
East
26421 14744 11361
316 25262
14112 10980
170 1159
632 381 146
Midwest 32404
15470 16670
264 31960
15320 16552
87 444
150 117 177
South
37662 15943 21436
284 37142
15790 21261
90 521
153 175 194
West
5936 2437
3404 96
5699 2360
3298 41
238 76
106 56
Far West 19870
10435 9171
264 16592
8822 7743
26 3278
1613 1428 238
East
CT
1579 857
694 27
1544 846 685
13 35
11
9 15
DC*
228 203
21
3 226
203 21
1
2
0 0
2
DE*
375 200
172 3
374 200 172
2
2
0
0 1
MA
2912 1804
1071 37
2861 1794
1067 0
51 10
4 37
MD
2387 1334
1025 27
2186 1224
952 11
200 111
73 17
ME* 741
397 330
14 734
395 330
8
7
1
0 5
NH*
678 341
331 6
675 340 331
4
2
0
0 2
NJ
3612 1911
1670 30 3405
1799 1587
19 206
112 83 12
NY
7391 4314
2963 114
6892 3993
2796 104
499 321
167 11
PA
5770 2938
2794 38
5643 2886
2757 0 127
52 37
38
RI
437 260
169 8
413 247 162
4
24 12
7 4
VT*
312 184
121 7
309 184 121
4
4
0
0 3
Final
Initial
Late
TOTAL KERRY
BUSH OTHER TOTAL
KERRY BUSH NADER
TOTAL
KERRY BUSH Other
122294 59028 62041
1224 116654 56404
59834 414 5640
2624 2207 810
Midwest
IA
1507 742
752 13
1486 733 747
6
21
9
5 7
IL
5274 2892
2346 37
5208 2871
2337 0
67 21
9 37
IN
2468 969
1479 20
2435 961
1474 0
33
8
5 20
KS
1188 435
736 16
1147 421 718
9
40 14
19 7
OH
5628 2741
2860 27
5456 2660
2796 0
172 82
64 27
MI
4839 2479
2314 46
4810 2475
2311 24
29
4
3 22
MN
2828 1445
1347 37
2807 1444
1345 19
21
1
2 18
MO
2731 1259
1456 16
2707 1254
1453 0
25
5
3 16
ND*
313 111
197 5
310 111 196
4
2
0
1 1
NE
778 254
513 11
762 249 507
6
17
5
6 5
OK*
1464 504
960 0
1464 504 960
0
0
0
0 0
SD
388 149
233 6
386 149 233
4
2
0
0 2
WI
2997 1490
1478 29
2982 1489
1477 16
15
1
1 13
Final
Initial
Late
TOTAL KERRY
BUSH OTHER TOTAL
KERRY BUSH NADER
TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other
122294 59028 62041
1224 116654 56404
59834 414 5640
2624 2207 810
South
AL*
1883 694
1176 13
1876 693
1176 7
8
1
0 6
AR
1055 470
573 12
1037 464 567
6
18
6
6 6
FL
7610 3584
3965 62
7563 3575
3956 33
47
9
9 29
GA
3302 1366
1914 21
3235 1345
1890 0
67 21
24 21
LA
1943 820
1102 21
1928 819
1102 7
15
1
0 14
KY*
1796 713
1069 14
1790 712
1069 9
6
0
1 5
MS
1152 458
685 9
1118 445 669
3
35 13
16 6
NC
3501 1526
1961 14
3395 1484
1911 0
106 42
50 14
SC
1618 662
938 18
1580 650 924
5
38 11
14 13
TN*
2437 1036
1384 16
2437 1036
1384 16
0
0
0 0
VA
3198 1455
1717 27
3095 1417
1678 0
103 37
39 27
WV
756 327
424 6
744 322
418 4
12 4
6 2
TX
7411 2833
4527 51
7344 2826
4518 0
67
7
8 51
Final
Initial
Late
TOTAL KERRY
BUSH OTHER TOTAL
KERRY BUSH NADER
TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other
122294 59028 62041
1224 116654 56404
59834 414 5640
2624 2207 810
West
CO
2130 1002
1101 27
2018 950
1056 12
112 52
45 15
ID*
598 181
409 8
589 181
408 0
9 0
1 8
MT*
450 174
266 11
445 173 265
6
5
0
1 5
NM
756 371
377 8
742 365 373
4
14
6
4 4
NV
830 397
419 14
813 393 415
5
16
4
4 9
UT
928 241
664 23
851 227 613
11 77
14 51
12
WY*
243 71
168 5
240 71
167 3
3
0
1 2
Far
West
AK
313 111
191 11
242 86 152
4
71 25
39 7
AZ
2013 894
1104 15
1644 735
908 0
369 158
196 15
CA
12420 6745
5510 165
9831 5427
4403 0
2589 1318
1106 165
HI*
429 232
194 3
425 231 194
0
4
0
0 3
OR
1837 943
867 27
1714 891 823
0 123
52 44
27
WA
2859 1510 1305
44 2736
1452 1262
22 123
58 43
22
Calculated True Vote
Late Share Recorded
+Unctd = True Vote
Kerry
2.65 53.0% 64.79
2.58 67.37 53.6%
Bush
2.21 44.0% 53.80
0.79 54.59 43.4%
Other
0.15 3.0%
3.71 0.07 3.78
3.0%
Total
5.01 100%
122.30 3.45 125.74 100%
Election Calculator
Assumptions:
Uncounted Votes
Cast
Census Uncounted
2004
2.74% 125.74 3.45
2000
4.86% 110.80 5.38
Uncounted Vote share
2004
2000
Kerry
75% Gore 75%
Bush
23% Bush 20%
Other
2% Nader 5%
2000 Annual Voter Mortality
Total
1.22%
Gore share
50.4%
2000 Voter Turnout in
2004
Gore
95%
Bush
95%
Other
95%
2000
Recorded
Voted
Rec Unctd
Cast Deaths Alive
Gore
51.00 4.04 55.04
2.71 52.33
Bush
50.46 1.08 51.53
2.47 49.07
Other 3.96
0.27 4.23
0.21 4.02
Total
105.42 5.38 110.80
5.38 105.42
2004 Calculated
Turnout
Voted Weight Kerry
Bush Other
DNV
- 25.59 & 20.4% 57%
41% 2%
Gore
95% 49.71 39.5%
91% 8% 1%
Bush
95% 46.61 37.1%
10% 90% 0%
Other
95% 3.82
3.0% 64%
17% 19%
100.15 125.74 100% 53.23%
45.39% 1.38%
66.93 57.07 1.74
