Florida: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide
TruthIsAll
 

In every election, millions of votes are never counted. They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.4m recorded, leaving 5.4m uncounted. Most were from heavily democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners.  And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth.  Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth. The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close.

 

Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount - and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. And don’t forget the thousands of Butterfly ballots which fooled Gore voters into voting for Buchanan.

 

Approximately 54% of the spoiled ballots were in black districts where Gore won 91% of the vote. Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then 126,000 (72%) of the spoiled ballots were Gore votes. And the infamous “Butterfly” ballot caused several thousand Gore voters to mistakenly vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County.  Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in Palm Beach and just 0.25% elsewhere.  

 

Dan Rather's expose on voting machines in Florida 2000 showed that poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in highly Democratic precincts. Faulty paper had never before been considered a factor in mechanical voting failure.  The spoiled punched cards in Florida 2000 were just the tip of the national iceberg.

 

Kerry had a 100,000 built-in vote advantage going into the election. He could count on a solid majority (70-80%) of 90,000 returning Nader voters. No more hanging chads from spoiled punch cards; Touch screens and Optical scanners would be used for input to the central tabulators.  Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable voter registration  and GOTV effort. In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration was 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it was just 12 percent higher in the heaviest Republican areas. Of course, they had to overcome Bush’s popularity; he had a whopping 48.5% approval rating on Election Day.

 

The Florida pre-election polls were trending to Kerry. After allocating the undecided vote, Kerry led the final 10-poll average by 51.1-48.8%.  Kerry was on track to a 200,000 vote win.

 

But Bush “won” the official vote by 52.1-47.1%, a 381,000 margin. Kerry won TS counties by 51.3-47.8%, but Bush won OS counties by a whopping 57.0-42.3%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated Democratic TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect.  The TS county vote share matched the exit poll to within 1%, but the OS county share deviated by 9% in favor of Bush.   The probability was virtually zero that Kerry's TS vote share would exceed his state-wide share by 4.2% and his OS county share by 9%.

 

Consider Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and  2004 Voter Registration. The Democrats had a 41.6- 36.1% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 41.1-39.5% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties.  Bush’s vote share was 131% of his registration share in TS (DRE) counties and 145% in Optiscan counties. For Kerry, the corresponding percentages were 125% and 102%.  Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties?  Since Bush was first selected in 2000, the Florida Republican vote share to registration share ratio has increased sharply compared to the Democrats.

 

Comparing the last three elections, we see a dramatic rise in the ratio of Bush vote share to registration share:

 

In 1996, Dole’s vote share was 106% of the registered Republican share.

Clinton’s share was equal (100%) to the registered Democratic share.

 

In 2000, Bush’s vote share was 128% of the registered Republican share.

Gore’s share was 109% of the registered Democratic share.

 

In 2004, Bush’s vote share was 138% of the registered Republican share.

Kerry’s share was 114% of the registered Democratic share.

 

In 2004, the Kerry vote/registration ratio was 84%; for Bush, it was 102%. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 369,000, yet Bush won by 381,000 votes. Bush received 61,000 more votes than registered Republicans; Kerry had 689,000 fewer votes than registered Democrats. Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties? 

 

To match the recorded vote, Bush needed 21.3% of the statewide Democratic vote (15% in TS counties and 28% in OS counties).

 

If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, he needed 79% of Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties to win the state.

 

So how did Bush do it?

 

Could it have been the Independent vote?

No, according to the Composite Florida exit poll, Independents voted 60-38% for Kerry.

 

Could it have been late undecided voters who made up their minds in the month prior to the election?

No,  undecideds voted 61-38% for Kerry.

 

Could it have been new voters? 

No, Kerry won first-timers by 58-41%. The Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the Republicans.

 

Could it have been that voters favored an AWOL “War President” over a Medal of Honor winner? 

No, Bush average approval rating was 48% on Election Day (11 national polls).

 

Could it have been the 90,000 returning Nader 2000 voters?

No, the Composite National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicated that Kerry led Bush by 64-17%.

The Final NEP (13660 respondents) had the spread as 71-21%, a 45,000 vote margin.

 

Could it have been the voting machines?

Do you believe in magic?

 

HAVA seat.

Let’s crunch some numbers.

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.

 

The unadjusted, "pristine" Florida exit poll had Kerry leading by 51.0-48.2%. The Florida General Exit Poll  indicated that the election was a virtual tie (see the Gender demographic). The Final State and National Exit poll demographic weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote count. It’s standard operating procedure.

 

But a closer analysis shows significant Bush bias in exit poll weights and vote shares. County registration data, the pre-election polling trend, Bush’s approval and exit poll demographics indicate that Kerry won Florida by 200-300,000 votes. 

 

The Florida Exit Poll raised these red flags:
1) Party-ID weights: Dem 38/Rep 39% 
 * The actual Florida 2004 Voter Registration shares were Dem 41.6 / Rep 36.1%
 
2) Bush led voters who decided one month before the election by 54-46%.
 * Late September pre-election polls indicated that the race was tied.
 * Kerry led voters who decided in the final month by 61-38%. 
 
3) Bush approval: 53% (35% strong) 
 * Actual approval was 48.5% (average of 11 national polls).
 
4) Urban Vote Share:  
    The Florida exit poll indicated Bush led by 53-46%. 
 * The 7:33pm National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry led by 57-41%.
 
The pre-election 10-poll moving average projected Kerry by 51.1-48.8%.
The unadjusted exit poll (WPE method) had Kerry winning by 51.0-48.2%.

 

The following post-election models confirmed the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls:

 

1) Election Calculator:

  Final NEP vote shares with weights calculated from the 2000 vote, uncounted votes, voter mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004.

  Kerry won by 51.4-48.0%, a 260,000 vote margin.

 

2) DRE (TS) Optical Scan (OS) county registration weight with plausible vote shares.

  Kerry won by 52.0-46.8%, a 400,000 vote margin.

 

3) Uncounted and switched vote adjustments to the final 2004 recorded vote.

  Kerry won by 51.3-48.2%, a 240,000 vote margin.

 

Florida Recorded Vote (in thousands)
2000     Vote     Pct       2004   Vote     Pct
Gore     2912     48.8%     Kerry   3584     47.1%
Bush     2913     48.8%     Bush    3965     52.1%
Other    139      2.4%      Other   62       0.8%
 
Recorded Vote   by County Type
County Vote   Kerry   Bush    Other   Kerry   Bush Other
DRE    3.90   51.3%   47.8%   0.9%    2.00    1.86 .04
OS     3.71   42.3%   57.0%   0.7%    1.57    2.11 .03
 
Total  7.61   47.1%   52.1%   0.8%    3.57    3.98 .06
 
Florida General Exit Poll 
Bush wins by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes)
 
         Reg      Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Dem      38%       2.89    86%     13%      1%       2.49     0.38     0.03
Rep      39%       2.97     7%     92%      1%       0.21     2.73     0.03
Ind      23%       1.75    60%     38%      2%       1.05     0.67     0.04
                                                                      
Total    7.61      7.61   49.2%    49.6%    1.2%     3.74     3.77     0.09
 

 

2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report

http://www.ap.org/media/pdf/EvaluationEdisonMitofsky.pdf

 

(see pg.32 for state WPE measures)

 

Florida                Kerry      Bush

IM WPE      51.0%   48.2%  

Best GEO    49.2    50.3   

Composite   49.3    50.1

Best SPM    48.6    51.0   

 

Recorded    47.1    52.1

 

 IM WPE

The statewide WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.  Florida precincts had an average 7.8% WPE.  The unadjusted exit poll result was not provided by E-M in their Evaluation Report. But given the WPE, the raw, unadjusted exit poll shares can be calculated from the recorded vote shares:

 

Kerry = Final Recorded + .5* WPE = 47.1 + 3.9 = 51.0%.

Bush   = Final Recorded – .5* WPE = 52.1 - 3.9 = 48.2%

 

Best GEO Survey Estimate

The Best GEO is the estimate with the lowest Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF) using the cumulative precinct tallies for each candidate.

 

Prior Estimate

Prior Estimates are based upon pre-election surveys conducted in each state. It is used in combination with the Best Survey Estimate on Election Day to create the Composite Estimate.

 

Composite Estimate

The Composite is the weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate.  It is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data on Election Day before the actual vote is reported  View the Florida General Exit Poll  demographic calculations below.

 

Best SPM

The Best SPM is the adjusted estimate computed using actual vote returns for each sampled precinct.

 
 
Implausible Bush Vote Shares
 

The following analysis shows that the Bush Florida vote was implausible.

He needed 21.3% of the statewide Democratic vote, 15% in DRE (TS) counties and a whopping 28% in OS counties.

 

County   Mix       Votes   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DRE 
Dem      41.57%    1.62    84%      15%      1%       1.36     0.24     0.02
Rep      36.13%    1.41    6%       93%      1%       0.08     1.31     0.01
Ind      22.30%    0.87    60%      38%      2%       0.52     0.33     0.02
                                                                      
Vote     3.903     3.90    50.5%    48.3%    1.2%     1.97     1.89     0.05
                                                                      
OS 
Dem      41.15%    1.53    71%      28%      1%       1.08     0.43     0.02
Rep      39.52%    1.47    5%       94%      1%       0.07     1.38     0.01
Ind      19.33%    0.72    60%      38%      2%       0.43     0.27     0.01
                                                                      
Vote     3.707     3.71    42.8%    56.0%    1.2%     1.59     2.08     0.04
                                                                      
Total
Dem      41.37%    3.15    77.7%    21.3%    1.0%     2.45     0.67     0.03
Rep      37.79%    2.88    5.5%     93.5%    1.0%     0.16     2.69     0.03
Ind      20.85%    1.59    60.0%    38.0%    2.0%     0.95     0.60     0.03
                                                                      
Vote     7.610     7.61    46.7%    52.1%    1.2%     3.56     3.96     0.09
___________________________________________________________________________________________
 
Model I  
Election Calculator
 
Kerry wins by 51.4-48.0% 
(260,000 vote margin)
 
Assumptions:

Uncounted Votes

 

 

 

Pct

 Cast

Unctd

2004

3.0%

7.813

0.234

2000

2.85%

6.137

0.175

 

 

 

 

2004

Share

2000

Share

Kerry

75%

Gore

75%

Bush

23%

Bush

22%

Other

2%

Nader

3%

 

 

 

 

2000 Voter Mortality

 

Total Voters

1.22%

 

 

Gore share

52%

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 Voter Turnout in 2004

 

Gore

95%

 

 

Bush

95%

 

 

Nader

95%

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Calculated

 

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

 

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 DNV

2.27

29.0%

54%

45%

1%

Gore

2.91

0.13

3.04

0.16

2.89

 

95%

2.74

35.1%

90%

10%

0%

Bush

2.91

0.04

2.95

0.14

2.81

 

95%

2.67

34.2%

9%

91%

0%

 Nader

0.14

0.01

0.14

0.01

0.14

 

95%

0.13

1.6%

64%

19%

17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

5.96

0.17

6.14

0.30

5.84

 

5.55

7.81

100%

51.41%

48.02%

0.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.81

4.02

3.75

0.04

 
 
                                            

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Vote Share

 

 

 

 

Kerry Vote Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gore share of

Bush 2000 Turnout:

95.0%

 

 

Kerry share of

Bush 2000 voters:

9.0%

 

Uncounted

 

Gore Voter Turnout

 

 

 

Gore voters

New voters (DNV in 2000)

 

51.4%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

 

51.4%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

85%

51.0%

51.3%

51.6%

51.8%

52.1%

 

94%

51.6%

52.2%

52.8%

53.4%

54.0%

80%

51.0%

51.2%

51.5%

51.8%

52.0%

 

92%

50.9%

51.5%

52.1%

52.7%

53.3%

75%

50.9%

51.1%

51.4%

51.7%

51.9%

 

90%

50.2%

50.8%

51.4%

52.0%

52.6%

70%

50.8%

51.1%

51.3%

51.6%

51.9%

 

88%

49.5%

50.1%

50.7%

51.3%

51.9%

65%

50.7%

51.0%

51.2%

51.5%

51.8%

 

86%

48.8%

49.4%

50.0%

50.6%

51.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Kerry Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 Kerry Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.26

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

 

0.26

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

85%

0.21

0.25

0.29

0.33

0.38

 

94%

0.30

0.39

0.48

0.57

0.67

80%

0.19

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

 

92%

0.19

0.28

0.37

0.46

0.56

75%

0.18

0.22

0.26

0.31

0.35

 

90%

0.08

0.17

0.26

0.35

0.45

70%

0.17

0.21

0.25

0.29

0.33

 

88%

(0.03)

0.06

0.15

0.25

0.34

65%

0.15

0.20

0.24

0.28

0.32

 

86%

(0.14)

(0.05)

0.04

0.14

0.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Model II – Adjusted Florida General Exit Poll (Composite)

County Registration Weights and Vote shares

 

Unadjusted Exit Poll

The WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

 Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2% (210,000 votes).  

 

Composite Estimate

The Composite is the adjusted weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate. 

 
Florida General (Composite) Exit Poll 
Bush won the poll by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes) 
 
         Reg      Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Dem      38%       2.89    86%     13%      1%       2.49     0.38     0.03
Rep      39%       2.97     7%     92%      1%       0.21     2.73     0.03
Ind      23%       1.75    60%     38%      2%       1.05     0.67     0.04
                                                                      
Total    7.61      7.61   49.2%    49.6%    1.2%     3.74     3.77     0.09
 
Adjust Exit Poll weights to actual voter registration shares
Kerry wins by 50.7-48.1% (200,000 votes) 
 
                          
         Mix       Votes   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Dem      41.37%    3.15    86%      13%      1%       2.71     0.41     0.03
Rep      37.79%    2.88    7%       92%      1%       0.20     2.65     0.03
Ind      20.85%    1.59    60%      38%      2%       0.95     0.60     0.03
                                                                      
Vote      7.610    7.61    50.73%   48.06%   1.21%    3.86     3.66     0.09
         
 
Adjust to plausible DRE and Opscan county vote shares
Kerry wins by 52.0-46.8% (400,000 votes) 
 
DRE      Mix       Votes   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Dem      41.57%    1.62    90%      9%       1%       1.46     0.15     0.02
Rep      36.13%    1.41    7%       92%      1%       0.10     1.30     0.01
Ind      22.30%    0.87    62%      36%      2%       0.54     0.31     0.02
                                                                      
Vote     3.903     3.90    53.8%    45.0%    1.2%     2.10     1.76     0.05
                                                                      
OS                                                                    
Dem      41.15%    1.53    87%      12%      1%       1.33     0.18     0.02
Rep      39.52%    1.47    7%       92%      1%       0.10     1.35     0.01
Ind      19.33%    0.72    60%      38%      2%       0.43     0.27     0.01
                                                                      
Vote     3.707     3.71    50.2%    48.6%    1.2%     1.86     1.80     0.04
                                                                      
Total                                                                 
Dem      41.37%    3.15    88.5%    10.5%    1.0%     2.79     0.33     0.03
Rep      37.79%    2.88    7.0%     92.0%    1.0%     0.20     2.65     0.03
Ind      20.85%    1.59    61.1%    36.9%    2.0%     0.97     0.59     0.03
                                                                      
Vote     7.610     7.61    52.0%    46.8%    1.2%     3.96     3.56     0.09
 

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

 

Calculate Kerry’s Florida vote share and margin over a range of TS and OS county registration/vote share scenarios. 

 

If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, then to win the state he needs just  79% of Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties.

 
         Kerry share of DRE county Democrats                 
         share    86.0%    88.0%    90.0%    92.0%    94.0%             
         of OS
                  Kerry Vote share                           
         91%      52.0%    52.4%    52.8%    53.2%    53.7%             
         89%      51.6%    52.0%    52.4%    52.8%    53.3%             
 
         87%      51.2%    51.6%    52.0%    52.4%    52.9%             
 
         85%      50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%    52.5%             
         83%      50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    52.1%             
         81%     50.0%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.7%
         79%     49.6%    50.0%    50.4%    50.8%    51.3%
                                                                      
                 Kerry Vote margin                           
         91%      0.39     0.46     0.52     0.59     0.65 
         89%      0.33     0.39     0.46     0.52     0.59 
 
         87%      0.27     0.33     0.40     0.46     0.53 
 
         85%      0.21     0.27     0.34     0.40     0.47 
         83%      0.15     0.21     0.28     0.34     0.41 
         81%      0.09     0.15     0.22     0.28     0.35 
         79%      0.02     0.09     0.15     0.22     0.28 
 
Sensitivity Analysis II
 
Calculate Kerry’s Florida vote share for various combination shares of Democrats and Independents.  
Kerry wins the state if he captures 84% of Democrats and 58% of independents.
 
Base Case Scenario
 
         Mix       Votes   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Dem      41.37%    3.15    86%      13%      1%       2.71     0.41     0.03
Rep      37.79%    2.88    7%       92%      1%       0.20     2.65     0.03
Ind      20.85%    1.59    60%      38%      2%       0.95     0.60     0.03
                                                                      
Vote      7.610    7.61    50.7%    48.1%    1.2%     3.86     3.66     0.09
 
               Kerry % Democrats                             
Kerry    84.0%   85.0%    86.0%    87.0%    88.0%
% Ind
              Kerry Vote share                               
64%      50.7%    51.1%    51.6%    52.0%    52.4%
62%      50.3%    50.7%    51.1%    51.6%    52.0%
60%      49.9%    50.3%    50.7%    51.1%    51.6%
58%      49.5%    49.9%    50.3%    50.7%    51.1%
56%      49.1%    49.5%    49.9%    50.3%    50.7%
54%      48.7%    49.1%    49.5%    49.9%    50.3%
                                            
             Kerry Vote margin                               
64%       0.20     0.27     0.33     0.39     0.46 
62%       0.14     0.20     0.27     0.33     0.39 
60%       0.08     0.14     0.20     0.27     0.33 
58%       0.01     0.08     0.14     0.20     0.27 
56%       (0.05)   0.01     0.08     0.14     0.20 
54%       (0.11)   (0.05)   0.01     0.08     0.14 
                                               
 
____________________________________________________________________________________________
 
 
Model III  
Uncounted and Switched vote adjustments                                         
 
Kerry wins by 51.3-48.2%
(241,000 vote margin)
 
Assumptions:
3.0% of total votes cast uncounted 
176k uncounted to Kerry (75%)
56k uncounted to Bush (24%)
251k Kerry votes switched to Bush (7%)
 
                 Total   Kerry     Bush   Other 
         Actual   7582     3584     3965     33
         Unctd     234      176       56      2
         Total    7816     3760     4021     35
         Switch   7.0%      251     -251      0
         True     7816     4011     3770     35
         Share    100%     51.3%    48.2%    0.5%
 
 
____________________________________________________________________________________________
 

 

Florida Pre-election Polls
The final moving average projection: Kerry 51.1-48.8%
 
                                                     Projection                Moving Average    
Date     Pollster         Kerry    Bush     Nader    Kerry    Bush     Nader    Kerry    Bush
23-May   Zogby             49      48       1        50.4     48.6     1.0              
31-May   Rasmussen        39       51       1        45.3     53.7     1.0              
06-Jun   Zogby             50      48       1        50.7     48.3     1.0              
14-Jun   Survey USA       43       50       1        47.2     51.8     1.0              
17-Jun   Rasmussen        48       44       1        52.9     46.1     1.0              
 
20-Jun   Zogby             46      50       1        48.1     50.9     1.0              
22-Jun   Rasmussen        48       42       1        54.3     44.7     1.0              
23-Jun   ARG               47      46       1        51.2     47.8     1.0              
27-Jun   Quinnipiac       43       43       5        49.3     45.7     5.0              
30-Jun   Rasmussen        48       43       0        54.3     45.7     0.0      50.4     48.3
 
11-Jul   Survey USA       47       44       0        53.3     46.7     0.0      50.7     48.1
15-Jul   ARG               47      44       3        51.2     45.8     3.0      51.3     47.4
21-Jul   LA Times          44      45       2        50.3     47.7     2.0      51.2     47.3
22-Jul   Gallup            46      50       1        48.1     50.9     1.0      51.3     47.2
23-Jul   Zogby             48      49       1        49.4     49.6     1.0      51.0     47.6
 
30-Jul   Zogby             50      47       2        50.7     47.3     2.0      51.2     47.2
05-Aug   ARG               50      43       2        53.5     44.5     2.0      51.1     47.2
10-Aug   Quinnipiac       47       41       4        52.6     43.4     4.0      51.3     46.7
21-Aug   Zogby             50      49       0        50.7     49.3     0.0      51.4     47.1
22-Aug   Gallup            46      48       2        48.8     49.2     2.0      51.2     47.3
 
24-Aug   Rasmussen        47       49       2        48.4     49.6     2.0      50.9     47.5
25-Aug   Research2k       46       46       2        50.2     47.8     2.0      50.6     47.7
11-Sep   Rasmussen        47       48       1        49.8     49.2     1.0      50.3     47.9
14-Sep   Survey USA       45       51       0        47.8     52.2     0.0      50.0     48.4
16-Sep   Rasmussen        47       48       0        50.5     49.5     0.0      50.0     48.5
 
17-Sep   Zogby             48      48       1        50.1     48.9     1.0      50.2     48.4
20-Sep   ARG               46      45       2        50.9     47.1     2.0      50.3     48.2
22-Sep   Gallup            45      47       2        49.2     48.8     2.0      50.2     48.3
26-Sep   Rasmussen        49       48       0        51.1     48.9     0.0      50.0     48.7
27-Sep   Gallup            44      49       2        47.5     50.5     2.0      49.6     49.3
 
29-Sep   Rasmussen        47       50       0        49.1     50.9     0.0      49.5     49.4
03-Oct   Survey USA       46       51       0        48.1     51.9     0.0      49.4     49.6
04-Oct   Rasmussen        46       52       0        47.4     52.6     0.0      49.3     49.9
05-Oct   Mason-Dixon      44       48       0        49.6     50.4     0.0      49.3     50.1
05-Oct   ARG               47      45       2        51.2     46.8     2.0      49.4     49.9
 
05-Oct   Zogby             50      49       1        50.0     49.0     1.0      49.6     49.6
05-Oct   Rasmussen        45       52       0        47.1     52.9     0.0      49.3     49.9
10-Oct   Rasmussen        45       49       0        49.2     50.8     0.0      49.2     50.1
10-Oct   Wash Post        47       47       1        50.5     48.5     1.0      49.2     50.2
14-Oct   Rasmussen        46       48       0        50.2     49.8     0.0      49.3     50.3
 
16-Oct   Mason-Dixon      45       48       0        49.9     50.1     0.0      49.2     50.4
17-Oct   Survey USA       50       49       0        50.7     49.3     0.0      49.4     50.3
18-Oct   Zogby             49      50       0        49.7     50.3     0.0      49.5     50.2
18-Oct   Rasmussen        47       47       0        51.2     48.8     0.0      49.7     49.9
21-Oct   Research 2000    48       47       2        50.1     47.9     2.0      50.0     49.6
 
23-Oct   Rasmussen        48       48       0        50.8     49.2     0.0      50.1     49.5
24-Oct   Survey USA       50       48       0        51.4     48.6     0.0      50.1     49.6
25-Oct   ARG               49      46       0        52.5     47.5     0.0      50.3     49.5
26-Oct   Quinnipiac       44       44       1        51.7     47.3     1.0      50.7     49.0
26-Oct   Rasmussen        48       48       0        50.8     49.2     0.0      50.8     48.9
 
27-Oct   Zogby             46      48       0        50.2     49.8     0.0      50.8     49.0
27-Oct   NY Times          48      47       2        50.1     47.9     2.0      50.8     48.8
28-Oct   Rasmussen        46       49       0        49.5     50.5     0.0      50.7     48.9
29-Oct   Mason-Dixon      45       49       0        49.2     50.8     0.0      50.6     49.0
29-Oct   Zogby             47      45       0        52.6     47.4     0.0      50.8     48.7
 
29-Oct   Rasmussen        47       48       0        50.5     49.5     0.0      50.8     48.8
30-Oct   Gallup            49      45       0        53.2     46.8     0.0      51.0     48.7
30-Oct   Zogby             49      47       0        51.8     48.2     0.0      51.1     48.6
30-Oct   Rasmussen        47       49       0        49.8     50.2     0.0      51.0     48.8
31-Oct   Opinion Dyn      49       44       1        53.2     45.8     1.0      51.1     48.6
 
31-Oct   Survey USA       48       49       0        50.1     49.9     0.0      50.9     48.8
31-Oct   Zogby             48      47       0        51.5     48.5     0.0      51.0     48.8
31-Oct   Rasmussen        47       50       0        49.1     50.9     0.0      50.9     48.9
01-Nov   ARG               50      48       0        51.4     48.6     0.0      51.0     48.9
01-Nov   Zogby             48      48       0        50.8     49.2     0.0      51.1     48.8

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________
 
 
Florida 2004 Exit Poll (Composite)

 

Party-ID (2743 respondents) 
                                   
         Mix      Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Dem      38%       2.89    86%     13%      1%       2.49     0.38     0.03
Rep      39%       2.97     7%     92%      1%       0.21     2.73     0.03
Ind      23%       1.75    60%     38%      2%       1.05     0.67     0.04
                                                                      
Total    7.61      7.61   49.2%    49.6%    1.2%     3.74     3.77     0.09
 
Adjusted to party registration weights
 
Dem      41.37%    3.15    86%     13%      1%       2.71     0.41     0.03
Rep      37.79%    2.88     7%     92%      1%       0.20     2.65     0.03
Ind      20.85%    1.59    60%     38%      2%       0.95     0.60     0.03
                                                                      
Vote     7.610     7.61   50.7%    48.1%    1.2%     3.86     3.66     0.09
 
_____________________________________________________________________ 
  
Bush Approval (2409) 
 
Approval     Pct   Kerry   Bush Other                        
Strong       35     4      96    0                  
Approve      18     17     82    1
Disapprove   12     84     13    3
Strong       35     98      1    1
 
Total        100    48.8   50.3   0.9
                    3720   3828   69
 
Adjusted to 48.5% average approval
 
Strong     33.0    4    96    0                     
Approve    15.5   17    82    1
Disapprove 14.5   84    13    3
Strong     37.0   98     1    1
 
Total      100    52.4   46.7   0.9
           7610    3988   3554   69         
 
 
_____________________________________________________________________ 
 
When Decided (2162)
 
Decided   Pct     Kerry    Bush     Other
3days      8      53       45       2
Week       3      70       27       3
Month     12      61       38       1
Before    77     46       54       0
                                   
Total    100      49.1     50.6     0.4
         7610     3735     3847     28
 
 
Adjusted 30+days to 50/50
 
3days    8        53       45       2
Week     3        70       27       3
Month    12       61       38       1
Before   77      50       50       0
                                   
Total    100      52.2     47.5     0.4
         7610     3969     3612     28
 
_____________________________________________________________________ 
 
         Mix      KERRY   BUSH     Other    Bush Change in share from 2000
GENDER                                      
Male     46       47       52       1        -2 Males shifted to Kerry from Bush? 
Female   54       52       48       0        +3 Females shifted to Bush from Gore?
TOTAL    100      49.7     49.8     0.5      
                                            
GENDER/RACE                                         
WMale    33       42       57       1        
WFemale  38       46       53       1        
NWMale   13       59       40       1        
NWFemale 16       64       36       0        
TOTAL    100      49.3     49.9     0.8      
                                            
RACE                                        
White    70       44       55       1        -2 Whites move away from Bush?
Black    12       87       12       1        +5 Blacks shifted to Bush by 5%?
Hisp/Lat 15       46       54       0        +5 Hispanics shifted to Bush by 5%?
Asian    1       -        -        -        -
Other    2       34       66       -        -
TOTAL    100      48.8     49.4     0.8      
 
AGE                                         
18-29    17      60       39       1         -1 
30-44    27      48       51       1         +1
45-59    28      44       55       1         +6  Baby boomers for Bush?
60+      28      49       50       1        -1
TOTAL    100      49.2     49.8     1.0      
                                            
18-64    81      49       50       1         2
65+      19      51       49       0        -3 
TOTAL    100      49.4     49.8     0.8      
 
                                            
INCOME                                      
<15k       9      61       38       1        
15-30     15      61       37       2        
30-50     22      53       46       1        
50-75     21      47       52       1        
75-100    14     40       60       0        
100-150   10     46       54       0        
150-200    4     41       58       1        
200+       5     43       56       1        
TOTAL     100     50.2     48.9     0.9      
                                            
<50k      46      57       42       1        
50k+      54      44       55       1        
TOTAL    100      50.0     49.0     1.0      
                                            
50-100   81      52       48       0        
100+     19       44       56       0        
TOTAL   100      50.5     49.5     0.       
                                            
                                            
EDUCATION                                           
NoHS     3        55       43       2        -4
HighSch  20       53       47       0         5  Big Bush gain in HS Grads while losing the other 80%?
College  34       50       49       1         0
ColGrad  27       46       54       0        -3
PostGrad 16       48       51       1        -1
TOTAL    100      49.3     50.1     0.6      
                                            
COLLEGE                                     
No       57       52       48       0        
Yes      43       46       53       1        
TOTAL    100      49.4     50.2     0.4      
                                   
IDEOLOGY                                    
Liberal  20       82       16       2        -1
Moderate 47       59       41       0        -5 Big Moderate shift to Kerry
Conserv  33       14       85       1         8 Conservatives overwhelmed the Libs and Mods?
TOTAL    100      48.8     50.5     0.7      
                                            
FIRST-TIME VOTER                                    
Yes      13       58       41       1        
No       87       48       51       1        
TOTAL    100      49.3     49.7     1.0      
                                            
RELIGION                                    
Protestant 51    42       57       1        2
Catholic   27     45       55       0        3
Jewish     6      81       19       0        0
Other      6      71       28       1        -12
None       10     68       30       2        4   Atheists for Bush?
TOTAL      100    49.5     49.7     0.8      
                                            
FINANCIAL SITUATION                                          
Better   34      16       84       0        48
Worse    28       87       12       1        -50
Same     38       51       48       1        -16
TOTAL    100      49.2     50.2     0.6      
                                            
DID CANDIDATE CALL YOU?                                      
Kerry    16       81       18       1      
Bush     15       13       86       1        
Both     20       57       43       1        
None     49       48       51       1        
TOTAL    100      49.8     49.4     1.0      
 
                                            
POPULATION- 5 CATEGORIES                                     
Urban     7       35       65       0        
50-500k  19      50       49       1 
Suburb   61      53       47       0        
10-50k   9       45       54       1        
Rural    4        34       66       0 
TOTAL    100      49.7     50.0     0.3      
 
                                            
POPULATION- 3 CATEGORIES                                     
Urban    26       46       53       1        4 Bush Urban Legend?
Suburbs  61      52       48       0        1
Rural    13       42       57       1        1
TOTAL    100      49.1     50.5     0.4      
 
____________________________________________________________________________________________
 
 
2000 Recorded Vote by County
 
County       Precincts    Total    Gore     Bush   Buchanan   Nader    Other    Gore     Bush    Buchanan      Nader 
Totals           5884     5963     2912     2913     17       97       24       48.83%   48.85%   0.29%        1.63%
                                                                                                
Alachua          53       86       47       34       0        3        1        55.2%    39.8%    0.3%         3.8%
Baker            8        8        2        6        0        0        0        29.3%    68.8%    0.9%         0.6%
Bay              47       59       19       39       0        1        0        32.1%    65.7%    0.4%         1.4%
Bradford         21       9        3        5        0        0        0        35.5%    62.4%    0.7%         1.0%
Brevard          177      218      97       115      1        4        1        44.6%    52.7%    0.3%         2.0%
 
Broward          618      573      387      177      1        7        2        67.4%    30.9%    0.1%         1.2%
Calhoun          13       5        2        3        0        0        0        41.7%    55.5%    1.7%         0.8%
Charlotte        63       67       30       35       0        1        0        44.3%    53.0%    0.3%         2.2%
Citrus           35       57       26       30       0        1        0        44.6%    52.0%    0.5%         2.4%
Clay             51       57       15       42       0        1        0        25.5%    72.8%    0.3%         1.0%
 
Collier          96       92       30       60       0        1        0        32.5%    65.6%    0.1%         1.5%
Columbia         31       19       7        11       0        0        0        38.1%    59.2%    0.5%         1.4%
Miami-Dade       614      625      329      290      1        5        1        52.6%    46.3%    0.1%         0.9%
DeSoto           15       8        3        4        0        0        0        42.5%    54.5%    0.5%         2.0%
Dixie            11       5        2        3        0        0        0        39.1%    57.8%    0.6%         1.6%
 
Duval            268      265      108      152      1        3        1        40.8%    57.5%    0.2%         1.0%
Escambia         108      117      41       73       1        2        0        35.1%    62.6%    0.4%         1.5%
Flagler          27       27       14       13       0        0        0        51.3%    46.5%    0.3%         1.6%
Franklin         8        5        2        2        0        0        0        44.1%    52.8%    0.7%         1.8%
Gadsden          16       15       10       5        0        0        0        66.1%    32.4%    0.3%         0.9%
 
Gilchrist        10       5        2        3        0        0        0        35.4%    61.2%    0.5%         1.8%
Glades           13       3        1        2        0        0        0        42.9%    54.7%    0.3%         1.7%
Gulf             14       6        2        4        0        0        0        39.0%    57.8%    1.2%         1.4%
Hamilton         8        4        2        2        0        0        0        43.4%    54.1%    0.6%         0.9%
Hardee           12       6        2        4        0        0        0        37.5%    60.4%    0.5%         1.2%
 
Hendry           22       8        3        5        0        0        0        39.8%    58.3%    0.3%         1.3%
Hernando         51       65       33       31       0        2        0        50.1%    47.0%    0.4%         2.3%
Highlands        28       35       14       20       0        1        0        40.3%    57.5%    0.4%         1.6%
Hillsboro        320      360      170      181      1        7        2        47.1%    50.2%    0.2%         2.1%
Holmes           16       7        2        5        0        0        0        29.4%    67.8%    1.0%         1.3%
 
Indian River     41       50       20       29       0        1        0        39.8%    57.7%    0.2%         1.9%
Jackson          27       16       7        9        0        0        0        42.1%    56.1%    0.6%         0.8%
Jefferson        13       6        3        2        0        0        0        53.9%    43.9%    0.5%         1.3%
Lafayette        5        3        1        2        0        0        0        31.5%    66.7%    0.4%         1.0%
Lake             86       89       37       50       0        1        0        41.3%    56.5%    0.3%         1.6%
 
Lee             150       184      74       106      0        4        1        39.9%    57.6%    0.2%         1.9%
Leon             95       103      61       39       0        2        0        59.6%    37.9%    0.3%         1.9%
Levy             21       13       5        7        0        0        0        42.4%    53.9%    0.5%         2.2%
Liberty          8        2        1        1        0        0        0        42.2%    54.6%    1.6%         0.8%
Madison          11       6        3        3        0        0        0        48.9%    49.3%    0.5%         0.9%
 
Manatee          135      110      49       58       0        2        0        44.6%    52.6%    0.2%         2.3%
Marion           96       103      45       55       1        2        1        43.4%    53.6%    0.5%         1.8%
Martin           40       62       27       34       0        1        0        42.9%    54.8%    0.2%         1.8%
Monroe           33       34       16       16       0        1        0        48.7%    47.4%    0.1%         3.2%
Nassau           21       24       7        16       0        0        0        29.2%    69.0%    0.4%         1.1%
 
Okaloosa         48       71       17       52       0        1        0        24.0%    73.7%    0.4%         1.4%
Okeechobee       18       10       5        5        0        0        0        46.6%    51.3%    0.4%         1.3%
Orange           232      280      140      135      0        4        1        50.1%    48.1%    0.0%         1.4%
Osceola          66       56       28       26       0        1        0        50.6%    47.1%    0.3%         1.3%
Palm Beach       531      433      270      153      3        6        2        62.3%    35.3%    0.8%         1.3%
 
Pasco            132      143      70       69       1        3        1        48.7%    48.0%    0.4%         2.4%
Pinellas         345      398      201      185      1        10       2        50.3%    46.4%    0.3%         2.5%
Polk             163      169      75       90       1        2        1        44.6%    53.6%    0.3%         1.2%
Putnam           50       26       12       13       0        0        0        46.2%    51.3%    0.6%         1.4%
St. Johns        57       61       20       40       0        1        0        32.1%    65.1%    0.4%         2.0%
 
St. Lucie        78       78       42       35       0        1        0        53.3%    44.5%    0.2%         1.8%
Santa Rosa       36       50       13       36       0        1        0        25.4%    72.1%    0.6%         1.4%
Sarasota         142      161      73       83       0        4        1        45.3%    51.6%    0.2%         2.5%
Seminole         133      138      59       76       0        2        1        43.0%    55.0%    0.1%         1.4%
Sumter           24       22       10       12       0        0        0        43.3%    54.5%    0.5%         1.4%
 
Suwannee         16       12       4        8        0        0        0        32.8%    64.4%    0.9%         1.4%
Taylor           14       7        3        4        0        0        0        38.9%    59.6%    0.4%         0.9%
Union            11       4        1        2        0        0        0        36.8%    61.0%    0.9%         0.9%
Volusia          172      184      97       82       0        3        1        53.0%    44.8%    0.3%         1.6%
Wakulla          12       9        4        5        0        0        0        44.7%    52.5%    0.5%         1.7%
 
Walton           33       18       6        12       0        0        0        30.8%    66.5%    0.7%         1.4%
Washington       15       8        3        5        0        0        0        34.9%    62.3%    1.1%         1.2%
 
____________________________________________________________________________________________
 
 
2000 Recorded Vote by County
Adjusted for 175,000 uncounted ballots  
 
Uncounted Votes (000):
Gore      126.3   72.1%
Bush       45.0   25.7
Nader       2.6    1.5
Buchanan    0.5    0.3
Other       0.7    0.4
Total     175.1   100%
(2.85% of 6138k total votes cast)
 
Allocating the uncounted ballots, Gore won Florida by a minimum of 80,000 votes (49.5-48.2%).
This is a conservative estimate as it does not include butterfly ballots or electronic vote miscounts.
 
                Unctd     Total    Unctd%     Adjusted Count (total votes cast)         Adjusted Vote Share
                Total     Cast     Total    Gore     Bush    Buchanan   Nader   Other     Gore     Bush 
                 175      6138     2.85%    3039     2958      18       100      23      49.51%   48.19%
                                                                                       
Alachua          0.33     86       0.38%    48       34        0.3      3.2      0.8     55.3%    39.8%
Baker            0.14     8        1.69%    2        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.1%    68.1%
Bay              0.66     59       1.11%    19       39        0.2      0.8      0.2     32.5%    65.3%
Bradford         0.73     9        7.80%    4        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     38.3%    59.6%
Brevard          1.03     219      0.47%    98       115       0.6      4.5      0.9     44.7%    52.6%
 
Broward          14.61    588      2.48%    397      181       0.8      7.3      1.7     67.5%    30.8%
Calhoun          0.08     5        1.49%    2        3         0.1      0.0      0.0     42.1%    55.1%
Charlotte        3.16     70       4.51%    32       36        0.2      1.5      0.2     45.6%    51.7%
Citrus           0.22     57       0.38%    26       30        0.3      1.4      0.3     44.7%    51.9%
Clay              0.15    58       0.27%    15       42        0.2      0.6      0.2     25.6%    72.6%
 
Collier          3.18     95       3.34%    32       61        0.1      1.4      0.3     33.8%    64.3%
Columbia         0.69     19       3.61%    8        11        0.1      0.3      0.2     39.3%    58.0%
Miami-Dade       28.60    654      4.37%    349      297       0.6      5.8      1.3     53.4%    45.4%
DeSoto           0.70     9        8.24%    4        4         0.0      0.2      0.0     45.0%    52.2%
Dixie            0.33     5        6.64%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.3%    55.7%
 
Duval            26.91    292      9.23%    127      159       0.7      3.2      1.4     43.7%    54.5%
Escambia         4.37     121      3.61%    44       74        0.5      1.8      0.5     36.4%    61.3%
Flagler          0.06     27       0.23%    14       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     51.3%    46.5%
Franklin         0.42     5        8.28%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     46.4%    50.6%
Gadsden          2.07     17       12.3%    11       5         0.0      0.2      0.1     66.8%    31.5%
 
Gilchrist        0.29     6        5.07%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.1     37.3%    59.4%
Glades           0.37     4        9.98%    2        2         0.0      0.1      0.0     45.8%    51.8%
Gulf              0.41    7        6.27%    3        4         0.1      0.1      0.0     41.1%    55.8%
Hamilton         0.39     4        8.94%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     46.0%    51.6%
Hardee           0.41     7        6.14%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     39.7%    58.3%
 
Hendry           0.80     9        8.95%    4        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     42.7%    55.4%
Hernando         0.25     65       0.38%    33       31        0.2      1.5      0.2     50.1%    46.9%
Highlands        1.01     36       2.79%    15       20        0.1      0.6      0.1     41.2%    56.6%
Hillsboro        9.17     369      2.48%    176      183       0.9      7.6      1.7     47.7%    49.6%
Holmes           0.14     8        1.84%    2        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.2%    67.0%
 
Indian River     1.94     52       3.76%    21       29        0.1      1.0      0.2     41.1%    56.5%
Jackson          1.16     17       6.63%    8        9         0.1      0.2      0.1     44.1%    54.0%
Jefferson        0.57     6        9.22%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     55.6%    42.2%
Lafayette        0.17     3        6.39%    1        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     34.1%    64.0%
Lake             3.61     92       3.92%    39       51        0.3      1.5      0.3     42.5%    55.2%
 
Lee              4.57     189      2.42%    77       107       0.3      3.7      0.8     40.7%    56.8%
Leon             0.18     103      0.18%    62       39        0.3      1.9      0.4     59.6%    37.9%
Levy             0.76     13       5.64%    6        7         0.1      0.3      0.1     44.1%    52.3%
Liberty          0.19     3        7.24%    1        1         0.0      0.0      0.0     44.4%    52.6%
Madison          0.48     7        7.23%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     50.6%    47.6%
 
Manatee          1.41     112      1.26%    50       58        0.3      2.5      0.3     45.0%    52.2%
Marion           3.35     106      3.15%    47       56        0.6      1.9      0.8     44.3%    52.7%
Martin           0.61     63       0.97%    27       34        0.1      1.1      0.2     43.2%    54.5%
Monroe           0.18     34       0.53%    17       16        0.0      1.1      0.2     48.8%    47.3%
Nassau           1.58     25       6.28%    8        17        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.9%    66.3%
 
Okaloosa         0.77     71       1.07%    17       52        0.3      1.0      0.4     24.5%    73.2%
Okeechobee       0.86     11       8.01%    5        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     48.6%    49.3%
Orange           2.40     278      0.86%    142      135       0.0      3.9      1.1     50.3%    47.9%
Osceola          1.68     57       2.94%    29       27        0.1      0.8      0.4     51.3%    46.5%
Palm Beach       29.70    457      6.49%    291      161       3.5      6.0      1.6     62.9%    34.7%
 
Pasco            3.92     147      2.67%    72       70        0.6      3.5      0.6     49.4%    47.5%
Pinellas         8.49     407      2.09%    207      187       1.0      10.1     2.0     50.8%    46.0%
Polk             0.90     170      0.53%    76       91        0.5      2.1      0.5     44.7%    53.4%
Putnam           0.17     26       0.64%    12       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     46.3%    51.1%
St. Johns        3.24     64       5.06%    22       40        0.2      1.3      0.3     34.1%    63.1%
 
St. Lucie        0.34     78       0.43%    42       35        0.1      1.4      0.2     53.4%    44.4%
Santa Rosa       0.37     51       0.72%    13       36        0.3      0.7      0.2     25.8%    71.8%
Sarasota         0.56     162      0.35%    73       83        0.3      4.1      0.6     45.4%    51.5%
Seminole         0.65     138      0.47%    60       76        0.2      2.0      0.6     43.1%    54.8%
Sumter           0.76     23       3.31%    10       12        0.1      0.3      0.1     44.2%    53.5%
 
Suwannee         0.73     13       5.56%    5        8         0.1      0.2      0.1     34.9%    62.2%
Taylor           0.60     7        8.09%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.6%    56.8%
Union            0.26     4        6.32%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     39.0%    58.8%
Volusia          0.50     184      0.27%    98       82        0.5      2.9      0.6     53.0%    44.8%
Wakulla          0.42     9        4.68%    4        5         0.0      0.2      0.0     46.0%    51.3%
 
Walton           0.22     19       1.18%    6        12        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.3%    66.0%
Washington       0.33     8        3.94%    3        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     36.4%    60.8%
 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________
 
 
County Vote changes from 2000 by Machine Type
 
                  2000                               2004                               Vote Change             Bush Incr Machine
............     Vote     GORE     BUSH     OTHER    Vote     KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    KERRY    BUSH    OTHER   Margin   Incidents
DRE              3078     53.9%    44.7%    1.4%     3835     51.3%    47.8%    0.9%     342      443      -27      5.7%     231
Optiscan          2831    44.2%    54.2%    1.6%     3728     42.3%    57.0%    0.7%     323      602      -28      4.7%     81
Total             5909    48.8%    48.8%    2.3%     7563     47.1%    52.1%    0.8%     664      1045     -55      5.0%     312
                                                                                                                 
DRE                                                                                                              
Broward          571      67.7%    31.1%    1.2%     700      64.6%    34.8%    0.5%     65.8     66.4     -3.3     6.8%     56
Charlotte        67       44.6%    53.2%    2.2%     79       43.2%    56.1%    0.7%     4.6      9.0      -0.9     4.2%     0
Collier          92       32.6%    65.9%    1.5%     128      34.2%    65.3%    0.5%     13.8     23.1     -0.8     -2.1%    0
Miami-Dade       624      52.7%    46.4%    0.9%     767      53.0%    46.8%    0.3%     77.3     69.1     -3.4     0.1%     54
Hillsboro        358      47.4%    50.5%    2.1%     460      46.4%    53.2%    0.4%     43.9     63.8     -5.5     3.7%     21
 
Indian River     49       40.1%    58.0%    1.9%     61       39.2%    60.3%    0.5%     4.2      8.2      -0.7     3.2%     0
Lafayette        2        31.8%    67.2%    1.0%     3        25.5%    74.2%    0.3%     0.1      0.8      0.0      13.3%    0
Lake              88      41.5%    56.8%    1.7%     123      39.1%    60.3%    0.5%     11.6     24.4     -0.8     6.0%     3
Martin           62       43.1%    55.0%    1.8%     72       42.0%    57.5%    0.6%     3.6      7.4      -0.7     3.6%     1
Nassau           23       29.4%    69.5%    1.1%     32       26.3%    73.1%    0.6%     1.7      7.5      -0.1     6.6%     0
 
Palm Beach       423      63.8%    36.2%    0.0%     541      60.6%    39.2%    0.3%     58.0     58.9     1.6      6.2%     88
Pasco            142      49.1%    48.5%    2.4%     189      44.7%    54.5%    0.8%     15.2     34.6     -2.0     10.4%    0
Pinellas         395      50.7%    46.7%    2.5%     453      49.7%    49.8%    0.5%     24.7     40.8     -7.6     4.1%     6
Sarasota         160      45.5%    51.9%    2.5%     194      45.5%    53.9%    0.6%     15.5     21.5     -2.8     2.0%     2
Sumter           22       43.7%    54.9%    1.4%     32       36.6%    62.6%    0.8%     1.9      7.7      -0.1     14.7%    0
                                                                                                                 
OPTISCAN                                                                                                         
Alachua          85       55.9%    40.3%    3.8%     111      56.4%    43.1%    0.5%     15.0     13.5     -2.7     2.3%     0
Baker            8        29.7%    69.6%    0.7%     10       21.9%    77.8%    0.2%     -0.2     2.1      0.0      16.0%    0
Bay               58      32.3%    66.3%    1.4%     75       28.2%    71.4%    0.5%     2.2      14.8     -0.5     9.3%     0
Bradford         9        35.9%    63.2%    1.0%     11       30.0%    69.8%    0.3%     0.2      2.1      -0.1     12.5%    0
Brevard          217      44.9%    53.1%    2.1%     264      41.7%    57.9%    0.5%     12.8     37.7     -3.3     7.9%     4
 
Calhoun          5        42.5%    56.7%    0.8%     6        35.7%    63.7%    0.6%     0.0      0.9      0.0      13.9%    0
Citrus           57       45.0%    52.5%    2.4%     69       42.3%    57.1%    0.7%     3.7      9.7      -0.9     7.3%     0
Clay              57      25.7%    73.3%    1.0%     81       23.3%    76.4%    0.3%     4.3      20.1     -0.3     5.4%     0
Columbia         18       38.6%    60.0%    1.4%     25       32.3%    67.3%    0.4%     1.0      5.8      -0.1     13.6%    0
De Soto          8        42.9%    55.0%    2.0%     9        41.3%    58.2%    0.5%     0.6      1.3      -0.1     4.8%     0
 
Dixie            5        39.7%    58.7%    1.6%     6        30.5%    69.0%    0.5%     0.1      1.7      0.0      19.6%    0
Duval            263      41.1%    57.9%    1.0%     379      41.8%    57.9%    0.3%     50.3     67.2     -1.5     -0.7%    12
Escambia         116      35.4%    63.1%    1.5%     142      33.9%    65.7%    0.4%     7.3      20.4     -1.2     4.0%     1
Flagler          27       51.6%    46.8%    1.6%     38       48.4%    51.1%    0.5%     4.7      7.0      -0.3     7.5%     0
Franklin         5        44.6%    53.5%    1.9%     6        40.6%    58.8%    0.6%     0.4      1.0      0.0      9.2%     0
 
Gadsden          15       66.5%    32.6%    0.9%     21       69.9%    29.9%    0.3%     4.9      1.5      -0.1     -6.1%    1
Gilchrist        5        36.0%    62.2%    1.8%     7        28.9%    70.7%    0.5%     0.1      1.6      -0.1     15.6%    0
Glades           3        43.2%    55.1%    1.7%     4        41.1%    58.5%    0.4%     0.3      0.6      0.0      5.4%     0
Gulf              6       39.7%    58.8%    1.4%     7        33.2%    66.3%    0.6%     0.0      1.2      0.0      14.0%    0
Hamilton         4        44.1%    55.0%    0.9%     5        44.6%    55.1%    0.3%     0.5      0.6      0.0      -0.4%    0
 
Hardee           6        37.9%    60.9%    1.2%     7        29.7%    69.8%    0.5%     -0.2     1.3      0.0      17.0%    0
Hendry           8        40.0%    58.7%    1.3%     10       40.7%    59.1%    0.2%     0.7      1.0      -0.1     -0.2%    0
Hernando         65       50.4%    47.3%    2.3%     79       46.3%    53.1%    0.6%     3.9      11.2     -1.0     9.8%     0
Highlands        35       40.6%    57.9%    1.6%     41       37.1%    62.5%    0.5%     1.2      5.7      -0.4     8.1%     0
Holmes           7        29.9%    68.8%    1.3%     8        21.9%    77.6%    0.5%     -0.4     1.4      -0.1     16.8%    0
 
Jackson          16       42.5%    56.6%    0.9%     20       38.3%    61.4%    0.4%     0.7      3.0      -0.1     9.1%     0
Jefferson        6        54.4%    44.3%    1.4%     7        55.4%    44.2%    0.4%     1.1      0.8      0.0      -1.1%    0
Lee              183      40.1%    57.9%    2.0%     240      39.3%    60.1%    0.6%     20.8     38.3     -2.2     3.1%     0
Leon             102      60.0%    38.1%    1.9%     136      61.7%    38.0%    0.4%     22.4     12.5     -1.5     -1.9%    26
Levy             13       43.0%    54.7%    2.3%     17       36.6%    62.8%    0.6%     0.7      3.6      -0.2     14.5%    0
 
Liberty          2        43.2%    56.0%    0.8%     3        35.5%    64.0%    0.5%     0.1      0.6      0.0      15.7%    0
Madison          6        49.4%    49.8%    0.9%     8        48.9%    50.6%    0.5%     1.0      1.2      0.0      1.4%     0
Manatee          110      44.9%    52.9%    2.3%     143      42.8%    56.8%    0.5%     12.1     23.3     -1.8     6.0%     0
Marion           102      44.0%    54.3%    1.8%     139      41.1%    58.4%    0.5%     12.6     26.1     -1.2     6.9%     2
Monroe           34       49.0%    47.7%    3.2%     39       49.9%    49.4%    0.7%     3.2      3.4      -0.8     0.8%     0
 
Okaloosa         70       24.2%    74.4%    1.4%     89       21.7%    77.9%    0.4%     2.4      17.6     -0.6     6.1%     0
Okeechobee       10       46.9%    51.7%    1.3%     12       42.3%    57.4%    0.3%     0.6      1.9      -0.1     10.3%    0
Orange           275      51.0%    49.0%    0.0%     387      50.0%    49.7%    0.3%     53.0     57.9     1.1      1.9%     16
Osceola          55       51.1%    47.6%    1.3%     82       47.1%    52.6%    0.3%     10.4     16.9     -0.5     9.0%     1
Polk             168      44.9%    53.9%    1.2%     210      40.9%    58.7%    0.4%     10.8     33.2     -1.3     8.8%     5
 
Putnam           26       46.7%    51.9%    1.5%     31       40.2%    59.3%    0.4%     0.3      4.9      -0.2     13.9%    1
St. Johns        60       32.4%    65.6%    2.0%     86       30.7%    68.8%    0.5%     6.9      19.6     -0.8     4.9%     0
St. Lucie        78       53.5%    44.7%    1.8%     100      51.9%    47.7%    0.4%     10.3     12.9     -0.9     4.6%     0
Santa Rosa       50       25.7%    72.8%    1.5%     67       21.9%    77.7%    0.4%     1.8      15.7     -0.4     8.7%     0
Seminole         137      43.3%    55.3%    1.4%     186      41.4%    58.2%    0.3%     17.8     32.4     -1.4     4.7%     4
 
Suwannee         12       33.2%    65.3%    1.5%     16       28.7%    70.8%    0.5%     0.4      3.1      -0.1     10.0%    0
Taylor           7        39.2%    60.0%    0.9%     9        35.6%    63.9%    0.5%     0.4      1.4      0.0      7.4%     0
Union            4        37.3%    61.8%    0.9%     5        26.8%    72.8%    0.3%     -0.2     1.1      0.0      21.5%    0
Volusia          183      53.3%    45.1%    1.6%     228      50.6%    49.0%    0.4%     18.0     29.2     -2.0     6.5%     8
Wakulla          8        45.2%    53.1%    1.8%     12       41.8%    57.8%    0.4%     1.1      2.3      -0.1     8.1%     0
 
Walton           18       31.2%    67.3%    1.5%     24       26.0%    73.5%    0.5%     0.6      5.4      -0.1     11.3%    0
Washington       8        35.5%    63.3%    1.2%     10       28.2%    71.3%    0.5%     0.1      2.4      0.0      15.3%    0
 
____________________________________________________________________________________________
 
Democratic County Vote and Registration Share Trend
(1992-2004)
 
V= Vote share
R = Registration share
VR = 100*V/R  
 
 
Weighted                 V92      V96      V00      V04      R96      R00      R04      VR96     VR00     VR04
DRE                      42.3      52.7     53.3     51.3     44.5     42.0     41.6     118      127      125
Optiscan                 35.1      42.5     43.4     42.3     51.1     47.8     41.2     83       91       102
 
Total                    38.9      47.8     48.8     47.1     47.7     44.8     41.4     100      109      114
                                                                                                
                                                                                                
DRE                                                                                             
Broward                   52       64       67       65       53       51       50       121      131      129
Charlotte                 37       43       44       43       36       34       32       119      129      135
Collier                   26       32       32       34       25       24       24       128      133      143
Miami-Dade                47       57       53       53       48       44       43       119      120      123
Hillsboro                 37       47       47       46       48       44       42       98       107      110
 
Indian River              28       37       40       39       33       31       30       112      129      131
Lafayette                 33       40       41       25       37       36       34       108      114      75
Lake                      32      40       40       39       34       32       30       118      125      130
Martin                    28       38       43       42       28       27       28       136      159      150
Nassau                    30       34       29       26       56       48       37       61       60       71
 
Palm Beach                46       58       62       61       46       45       45       126      138      135
Pasco                     39       50       49       45       43       40       37       116      123      121
Pinellas                  38       49       50       50       39       37       38       126      135      131
Sarasota                  35       43       45       45       31       31       31       139      145      147
Sumter                    41       46       43       37       57       48       41       81       90       89
                                                                                                
OPTISCAN                                                                                        
Alachua                   50       54       55       56       57       53       51       95       104      111
Baker                     29       34       29       22       89       83       69       38       35       32
Bay                       28      33       32       28       54       48       39       61       67       72
Bradford                  37       41       35       30       77       70       61       53       50       49
Brevard                   31       41       45       42       40       38       37       103      118      113
 
Calhoun                   37       43       42       36       91       88       82       47       48       43
Citrus                    36       44       45       42       46       41       39       96       110      108
Clay                      23      28       26       23       31       29       26       90       90       90
Columbia                  37       41       38       32       68       64       57       60       59       57
DeSoto                    36       43       43       41       70       64       59       61       67       70
 
Dixie                     43       46       39       31       89       86       77       52       45       40
Duval                     37       44       41       42       54       50       46       81       82       91
Escambia                  31       35       35       34       51       46       41       69       76       83
Flagler                   41       48       51       48       42       40       38       114      128      127
Franklin                  35       46       44       41       87       81       77       53       54       53
 
Gadsden                   59       66       66       70       88       85       83       75       78       84
Gilchrist                 38       41       35       29       78       72       59       53       49       49
Glades                    39       45       43       41       76       69       65       59       62       63
Gulf                      33      41       39       33       84       79       67       49       49       49
Hamilton                  44       47       43       45       91       86       79       52       50       56
 
Hardee                    31       39       38       30       79       73       64       49       52       46
Hendry                    34       44       40       41       66       63       57       67       63       71
Hernando                  39       49       50       46       42       40       39       117      125      119
Highlands                 35       42       40       37       45       42       40       93       95       93
Holmes                    29       34       29       22       90       83       73       38       35       30
 
Jackson                   37       43       42       38       82       79       72       52       53       53
Jefferson                 49       53       54       55       83       79       72       64       68       77
Lee                       34      36       31       39       94       89       83       38       35       47
Leon                      49      55       60       62       61       59       57       90       102      108
Levy                      40      45       42       37       72       67       60       63       63       61
 
Liberty                   32       40       42       36       96       94       88       42       45       40
Madison                   45       50       49       49       86       84       80       58       58       61
Manatee                   34       43       45       43       37       35       33       116      129      130
Marion                    36       41       43       41       45       42       40       91       102      103
Monroe                    36       47       49       50       44       39       36       107      126      139
 
Okaloosa                  20       26       24       22       32       28       25       81       86       87
Okeechobee                37       49       47       42       69       65       58       71       72       73
Orange                    35       46       50       50       41       41       40       112      122      125
Osceola                   33       47       51       47       44       42       40       107      121      118
Polk                      35      44       45       41       50       46       43       88       98       95
 
Putnam                    42       48       46       40       67       63       58       72       73       69
St. Johns                 31       34       32       31       39       34       28       87       94       110
St. Lucie                 35       49       53       52       44       41       41       111      129      127
Santa Rosa                20       26       25       22       44       35       28       59       71       78
Seminole                  30       39       43       41       35       33       32       111      130      130
 
Suwannee                  35       37       33       29       76       71       64       49       46       45
Taylor                    36       45       39       36       87       82       76       52       48       47
Union                     35       40       37       27       91       84       75       44       44       36
Volusia                   42       49       53       51       46       43       41       107      123      123
Wakulla                   35       43       45       42       80       74       67       54       61       62
 
Walton                    29       34       31       26       63       53       37       54       58       70
Washington                32       38       35       28       82       74       67       46       47       42
 
____________________________________________________________________________________________
                 

 

Democratic and Republican Registration Shares

 

             1996                 2000                 2004                 1996   2000   2004

              Dem    Rep           Dem    Rep           Dem    Rep           Democratic Margin

Vote Share    47.8   42.3          48.8   48.8          47.1   52.1          5.5    0.0    (5.0)

Reg. Share    47.7   39.8          44.8   38.2          41.4   37.8          7.9    6.6    4.6

 

VoteSh/RegSh  100.0  106.3         108.9  127.7         113.8  137.8         (6.3)  (18.8) (24.0)

 
Registration Share 

DRE           44.5   41.6          42.0   39.1          41.6   36.1          2.9    2.9    4.5

Optical Scan 51.0   37.8          47.7   37.2          41.2   39.5          13.2   10.5   1.7

                                                                                        

County Registration Share

DRE

Broward       53     33            51     30            50     27            20     21     23

Charlotte     36     52            34     48            32     45            (16)   (14)   (13)

Collier       25     62            24     57            24     53            (37)   (33)   (29)

Miami-Dade    48     39            44     38            43     35            9      6      8

Hillsboro     48     38            44     37            42     35            10     7      7

 

Indian River 33     57            31     54            30     51            (24)   (23)   (21)

Lafayette     37     51            36     49            34     47            (14)   (13)   (13)

Lake          34     52            32     49            30     48            (18)   (17)   (18)

Martin        28     60            27     56            28     52            (32)   (29)   (24)

Nassau        56     37            48     41            37     49            19     7      (12)

 

Palm Beach    46     39            45     35            45     32            7      10     13

Pasco         43     43            40     41            37     40            0      (1)    (3)

Pinellas      39     45            37     42            38     39            (6)    (5)    (1)

Sarasota      31     56            31     52            31     48            (25)   (21)   (17)

Sumter        57     34            48     38            41     44            23     10     (3)

                                                                                 

OPSCAN                                                                                  

Alachua       57     30            53     28            51     28            27     25     23

Baker         89     9             83     14            69     24            80     69     45

Bay           54     34            48     37            39     44            20     11     (5)

Bradford      77     16            70     21            61     28            61     49     33

Brevard       40     48            38     46            37     45            (8)    (8)    (8)

 

Calhoun       91     7             88     8             82     12            84     80     70

Citrus        46     41            41     41            39     41            5      0      (2)

Clay          31     56            29     56            26     57            (25)   (27)   (31)

Columbia      68     25            64     26            57     31            43     38     26

DeSoto        70     24            64     24            59     25            46     40     34

 

Dixie         89     8             86     10            77     15            81     76     62

Duval         54     35            50     36            46     37            19     14     9

Escambia      51     40            46     41            41     44            11     5      (3)

Flagler       42     44            40     41            38     41            (2)    (1)    (3)

Franklin      87     10            81     14            77     16            77     67     61

 

Gadsden       88     9             85     10            83     11            79     75     72

Gilchrist     78     17            72     20            59     30            61     52     29

Glades        76     19            69     22            65     25            57     47     40

Gulf          84     13            79     16            67     27            71     63     40

Hamilton      91     7             86     10            79     15            84     76     64

 

Hardee        79     17            73     21            64     27            62     52     37

Hendry        66     26            63     28            57     31            40     35     26

Hernando      42     45            40     43            39     41            (3)    (3)    (2)

Highlands     45     45            42     45            40     44            0      (3)    (4)

Holmes        90     8             83     13            73     21            82     70     52

 

Jackson       82     14            79     16            72     22            68     63     50

Jefferson     83     13            79     15            72     21            70     64     51

Lee           94     5             89     8             83     13            89     81     70

Leon          61     27            59     27            57     27            34     32     30

Levy          72     22            67     24            60     28            50     43     32

 

Liberty       96     3             94     4             88     8             93     90     80

Madison       86     11            84     12            80     15            75     72     65

Manatee       37     50            35     47            33     44            (13)   (12)   (11)

Marion        45     43            42     43            40     43            2      (1)    (3)

Monroe        44     40            39     39            36     39            4      0      (3)

 

Okaloosa      32     56            28     56            25     57            (24)   (28)   (32)

Okeechobee    69     24            65     27            58     30            45     38     28

Orange        41     44            41     40            40     35            (3)    1      5

Osceola       44     40            42     36            40     33            4      6      7

Polk          50     40            46     39            43     39            10     7      4

 

Putnam        67     25            63     26            58     28            42     37     30

St. Johns     39     49            34     50            28     53            (10)   (16)   (25)

St. Lucie     44     41            41     39            41     37            3      2      4

Santa Rosa    44     47            35     52            28     56            (3)    (17)   (28)

Seminole      35     52            33     48            32     45            (17)   (15)   (13)

 

Suwannee      76     19            71     22            64     27            57     49     37

Taylor        87     11            82     14            76     19            76     68     57

Union         91     7             84     12            75     18            84     72     57

Volusia       46     40            43     38            41     36            6      5      5

Wakulla       80     15            74     19            67     24            65     55     43

 

Walton        63     29            53     35            37     50            34     18     (13)

Washington    82     14            74     19            67     25            68     55     42

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

County Presidential Vote vs. Registration 
 
    Vote Share / Registration Share
KVS = Kerry / Democratic 
BVS = Bush   / Republican 
OVS = Other / Other 
 
     Vote Total / Registration Total
KVR = Kerry / Democratic 
BVR = Bush   / Republican 
OVR = Other / Other
 
 

              Vote Share   ----Registration Share---- --Vote/Reg Share--   -Vote/Registration-

County......  Kerry  Bush   Total  Dem    Rep    Other  KVS    BVS    OVS    KVR    BVR    OVR

 

DRE           52.1%  47.4%  4,718  41.6%  36.1%  22.3%  125%   131%   2.4%   91%    95%   4%

OPTISCAN      42.3%  57.3%  4,382  41.2%  39.5%  19.3%  102%   145%   2.6%   76%    108%   4%

TOTAL         47.3%  52.3%  9,100  41.4%  37.8%  20.8%  114%   138%   2.5%   84%    102%   4%

                                                                                 

DRE                                                                              

Broward        64.6% 34.8%  963    51%    28%    21%    127%   124%   2.6%   92%    90%    2%

Charlotte     43.2% 56.1%  103    34%    47%    19%    128%   119%   3.7%   98%    91%    3%

Collier        34.2% 65.3%  150    25%    56%    19%    138%   116%   2.5%   117%   99%    2%

Dade           53.0% 46.8%  943    43%    36%    20%    122%   128%   1.3%   99%    104%   1%

Hillsborough  46.4% 53.2%  89     264%   223%   -387%  18%    24%    -0.1%  91%    123%   2%

 

Indian River  39.2% 60.3%  74     31%    53%    16%    125%   114%   3.0%   103%   94%    3%

Lafayette     25.5% 74.2%  4      83%    14%    3%     31%    535%   10.9%  25%    443%   9%

Lake           39.1% 60.3%  139    36%    50%    14%    108%   121%   3.8%   96%    107%   3%

Martin         42.0% 57.5%  89     29%    56%    15%    146%   102%   3.8%   118%   83%    3%

Nassau         26.3% 73.1%  36     42%    46%    11%    62%    158%   5.0%   56%    142%   4%

 

Palm Beach    60.6% 39.2%  650    47%    34%    19%    130%   115%   1.5%   108%   96%    1%

Pasco          44.7% 54.5%  240    39%    41%    20%    115%   133%   3.8%   90%    105%   3%

Pinellas      49.7% 49.8%  536    39%    42%    19%    126%   119%   2.8%   107%   100%   2%

Sarasota      45.5% 53.9%  219    32%    51%    18%    144%   106%   3.7%   128%   94%    3%

Sumter         36.6% 62.6%  35     44%    43%    13%    84%    145%   5.9%   76%    131%   5%

                                                                                 

OPTISCAN                                                                                

Alachua       56.4%  43.1%  116    54%    29%    17.3%  105%   150%   2.9%   100%   143%   3%

Baker         21.9%  77.8%  12     75%    20%    4.7%   29%    382%   4.7%   25%    321%   4%

Bay           28.2%  71.4%  87     45%    42%    13.2%  63%    170%   3.6%   54%    145%   3%

Bradford      30.0%  69.8%  14     64%    27%    8.3%   47%    254%   3.1%   37%    202%   2%

Brevard       41.7%  57.9%  301    38%    47%    14.6%  109%   123%   3.1%   95%    108%   3%

 

Calhoun       35.7%  63.7%  8      83%    13%    4.5%   43%    497%   14.1%  33%    375%   11%

Citrus        42.3%  57.1%  82     41%    43%    16.8%  104%   134%   3.9%   88%    113%   3%

Clay          23.3%  76.4%  91     27%    58%    14.9%  86%    132%   2.1%   76%    117%   2%

Columbia      32.3%  67.3%  30     61%    30%    8.5%   53%    221%   5.2%   44%    182%   4%

DeSoto        41.3%  58.2%  14     61%    26%    12.7%  67%    224%   4.0%   46%    153%   3%

 

Dixie         30.5%  69.0%  9      80%    14%    5.4%   38%    478%   8.4%   28%    347%   6%

Duval         41.8%  57.9%  426    49%    38%    12.8%  85%    152%   2.5%   76%    135%   2%

Escambia      33.9%  65.7%  164    44%    44%    11.9%  76%    150%   3.2%   66%    130%   3%

Flagler       48.4%  51.1%  40     40%    42%    18.5%  122%   122%   2.6%   116%   117%   2%

Franklin      40.6%  58.8%  7      77%    17%    5.5%   53%    339%   11.4%  43%    276%   9%

 

Gadsden       69.9%  29.9%  25     84%    11%    4.5%   83%    271%   5.7%   69%    225%   5%

Gilchrist     28.9%  70.7%  8      63%    29%    8.6%   46%    246%   5.3%   40%    214%   5%

Glades        41.1%  58.5%  6      68%    24%    8.8%   61%    248%   4.4%   42%    173%   3%

Gulf          33.2%  66.3%  9      70%    25%    5.4%   48%    267%   10.2%  38%    214%   8%

Hamilton      44.6%  55.1%  7      81%    15%    3.7%   55%    370%   8.5%   38%    258%   6%

 

Hardee        29.7%  69.8%  12     66%    26%    8.1%   45%    269%   6.6%   28%    167%   4%

Hendry        40.7%  59.1%  16     59%    31%    9.7%   69%    190%   2.5%   43%    119%   2%

Hernando      46.3%  53.1%  100    40%    43%    17.5%  116%   124%   3.7%   92%    98%    3%

Highlands     37.1%  62.5%  59     41%    44%    15.1%  91%    141%   3.0%   65%    100%   2%

Holmes        21.9%  77.6%  10     74%    20%    5.4%   29%    384%   9.4%   24%    314%   8%

 

Jackson       38.3%  61.4%  25     75%    21%    4.8%   51%    298%   7.8%   40%    231%   6%

Jefferson     55.4%  44.2%  9      75%    20%    4.8%   74%    219%   7.5%   64%    190%   7%

Lee           39.3%  60.1%  285    31%    49%    20.0%  125%   124%   2.9%   105%   104%   2%

Leon          61.7%  38.0%  140    60%    28%    11.6%  102%   136%   3.0%   99%    132%   3%

Levy          36.6%  62.8%  20     64%    28%    8.4%   57%    226%   7.0%   48%    190%   6%

 

Liberty       35.5%  64.0%  4      91%    7%     2.5%   39%    943%   18.4%  31%    741%   14%

Madison       48.9%  50.6%  11     81%    15%    3.7%   60%    333%   13.4%  47%    261%   11%

Manatee       42.8%  56.8%  177    34%    46%    20.6%  127%   124%   2.3%   103%   100%   2%

Marion        41.1%  58.4%  164    42%    45%    13.3%  98%    130%   3.5%   83%    111%   3%

Monroe        49.9%  49.4%  51     39%    39%    22.1%  129%   125%   3.3%   101%   98%    3%

 

Okaloosa      21.7%  77.9%  117    26%    57%    16.8%  84%    136%   2.5%   64%    104%   2%

Okeechobee    42.3%  57.4%  17     62%    29%    9.2%   68%    199%   2.9%   50%    144%   2%

Orange        50.0%  49.7%  442    42%    38%    20.2%  120%   130%   1.5%   105%   114%   1%

Osceola       47.1%  52.6%  105    42%    35%    22.6%  112%   148%   1.5%   88%    116%   1%

Polk          40.9%  58.7%  261    45%    40%    14.7%  91%    146%   2.6%   73%    118%   2%

 

Putnam        40.2%  59.3%  42     59%    28%    12.4%  68%    208%   3.5%   50%    154%   3%

St. Johns     30.7%  68.8%  94     31%    54%    14.9%  98%    128%   3.2%   90%    117%   3%

St. Lucie     51.9%  47.7%  124    43%    39%    18.7%  122%   124%   2.3%   98%    100%   2%

Santa Rosa    21.9%  77.7%  85     31%    57%    12.5%  71%    137%   3.5%   56%    108%   3%

Seminole      41.4%  58.2%  196    34%    48%    18.3%  122%   122%   1.7%   116%   115%   2%

 

Suwannee      28.7%  70.8%  20     69%    27%    4.5%   42%    265%   11.9%  34%    214%   10%

Taylor        35.6%  63.9%  11     79%    18%    3.3%   45%    353%   16.1%  36%    277%   13%

Union         26.8%  72.8%  6      79%    16%    4.9%   34%    460%   6.9%   25%    335%   5%

Volusia       50.6%  49.0%  269    43%    38%    19.0%  118%   129%   2.1%   100%   109%   2%

Wakulla       41.8%  57.8%  14     71%    23%    6.0%   59%    249%   6.7%   50%    212%   6%

 

Walton        26.0%  73.5%  29     45%    45%    10.8%  58%    165%   4.6%   49%    138%   4%

Washington    28.2%  71.3%  13     69%    25%    6.1%   41%    288%   8.4%   33%    229%   7%