TruthIsAll
According to the
Final National Exit Poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) the two-party
gender vote shares in 2000 and 2004 were the following:
2000: Gore won 55.7%
of women voters, but only 44.2% of men. Gore won the recorded vote by
51.0-50.46m.
2004: Kerry won
51.5% of women and 44.4% of men. Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m.
How come Bush
sharply increased his share of Democratic women voters while his share of
Republican males declined? One would normally expect to see a positive
correlation in the Demographic Trend between the
two groups. Science works by assuming that the explanation which best fits the
data is correct. But it must continue to be tested against other data which
either strengthens the case or causes it to be rejected in favor of a better
explanation.
Kerry's 59m recorded
vote was an 8m (15.7%) increase over Gore's 51m. Yet according to the National
Exit Poll (13047 respondents, updated at 12:22am), Kerry won 11.3m (58%) of the
net 19.5m 2-party increase in new voters from 2000. Therefore, how does one explain the 3.3m discrepancy between
Bush's 11.5m (23%) increase in votes and his 8.2m (42%) share of new
voters? So Kerry
apparently won by 62.3-58.7m. But he
actually did much better than that.
First,
there was a net 2% defection of Bush 2000 voters to Kerry. Second, returning
Nader voters preferred Kerry by better than 3-1. These factors produce a Kerry
64-57m margin - assuming 122.3m recorded votes (see the “True Vote” calculation
below). But approximately 3.4m ballots were uncounted and about 75% were for
Kerry. Therefore his true margin was
close to 9 million votes (66.6-57.9m).
To believe that Bush won by the 62-59m
recorded vote, one must believe that his “mandate” was provided by women who in
2000 either a) did not vote, b) voted for Gore, or c) voted for Nader. But
according to the NEP, Kerry won New voters by 57-41%, Gore voters by 91-8% and
Nader voters by 64-17%. So why should you believe it?
__________________________________________________________
2000/2004
Gender
Vote Shares (2-party)
Gore won 55.7% of
females
Kerry won 51.5% of
females, a 4.15% decline.
Therefore,
4.15/55.7= 7.45% (net) of female Gore voters switched to Bush.
Gore won 44.2% of
males.
Kerry won 44.4% of
males, a 0.23% increase.
Therefore,
0.23/55.8= 0.41% (net) of male Bush voters switched to Kerry.
__________________________________________________________
The
White Vote
Gore won 49.5% of
the White Female vote.
Kerry won 44.4% of
the White Female vote (5.04% decline).
Therefore,
5.04/49.5= 10.19% (net) of White Female Gore voters switched to Bush.
Gore won 37.5% of
the White Male vote.
Kerry won 38.4% of
the White Male vote (0.88% increase).
Therefore,
0.88/62.5= 1.41% (net) of White Male Bush voters switched to Kerry.
__________________________________________________________
The
Black Vote
Gore won 94.0% of
the Black Female vote.
Kerry won 90.0% of
the Black Female vote (4.00% decline).
4.25% (net) of Black
Female Gore voters switched to Bush.
Gore won 87.6% of
the Black Male vote.
Kerry won 86.9% of
the Black Male vote (.76% decline).
0.87% (net) of Black
Male Gore voters switched to Bush.
__________________________________________________________
National
Exit Poll
Gender
demographic
2000
Final
(matched to recorded
vote)
Mix Gore Bush Other Nader
Male 48% 42% 53% 1% 3%
Fem 52% 54% 43% 1% 2%
Total 100% 48.3% 47.8% 1.0% 2.5%
Votes 105.4 51.0 50.5 1.1 2.9
2004
Composite 12:22am update
(13047 respondents)
Mix
Kerry Bush Other
Male 46%
47% 52% 1%
Female 54%
54% 45% 1%
Total 100% 50.8% 48.2% 1.0%
Votes 122.3 62.1 59.0 1.2
2004 Final -2pm
(13660 respondents;
matched to recorded vote)
Mix
Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 44% 55% 1%
Female 54% 51% 48% 1%
Total 100% 47.8% 51.2% 1.0%
Votes 122.3 58.4 62.6 1.2
2004
True Vote
(adjusted to match "Voted 2000" -
see below)
Mix
Kerry Bush Other
Male 46.4%
49.5% 49.5% 1%
Female
53.6% 55.0% 44.0%
1%
Total
100% 52.4% 46.6%
1.0%
122.3
64.1 57.0 1.2
__________________________________________________________
Democratic
Gender vote share trend (2-party)
Year
1992 1996 2000 2004 Change Wtd
Total 53.1 54.4 50.0 48.5 (1.52) (1.52)
Male 51.9 49.4 44.2 44.4 0.23
0.11
Female 54.9 58.7 55.7 51.5 (4.15) (2.24)
Diff 3.0 9.3 11.5
7.1
White
Male 48.1 43.7 37.5 38.4
0.88 0.32
Female 50.0 52.7 49.5 44.4 (5.04) (2.07)
Diff 1.9 9.0 12.0
6.0
Black
Male 85.7 83.9 87.6 86.9 (0.76)
(0.04)
Female 91.6 91.8 94.0 90.0 (4.00)
(0.28)
Diff
5.9 7.9 6.4
3.1
__________________________________________________________
Composite
State Exit Poll
Nov. 3, 12:40am
72,714 respondents
Gender
Demographic
Gender
Mix Votes Kerry
Bush Nader
Female
53.76% 65.7 52.4%
47.0% 0.6%
Male
46.24% 56.5 47.0%
52.0% 1.0%
Votes
122.3 61.5 59.7
0.97
50.3%
48.9% 0.8%
__________________________________________________________
National
Exit Poll Timeline
Gender
Demographic
NEP
Sample Kerry
Update
Size Female Male Female Male Share
4:00pm
8349 58% 42% 53% 47% 50.48%
7:33pm
11027 54% 46% 54% 47% 50.78%
12:22am
13047 54% 46% 54% 47% 50.78%
1:25pm
13660 54% 46% 51% 44% 47.78%
(Final NEP matched to recorded vote)
__________________________________________________________
National
Exit Poll
Nov.3,
12:22am: 13047 respondents
Voted
2000
Weights adjusted to
calculate True Vote based on
2000 recorded
vote;
3.5% voter
mortality;
98% turnout of 2000
voters
True Vote (adjusted) Actual (before adj)
Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other
No 23.6 19.3%
57% 41% 2% 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 39.4%
91% 8% 1% 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.7 39.0%
10% 90% 0% 41% 10% 90% 0%
Other 2.8 2.3%
71% 21% 8% 3% 71% 21% 8%
Total 122.3 100% 52.4% 46.6% 1.0% 100% 51.4% 47.6% 1.0%
122.3 64.1 57.0 1.2 122.3 62.9 58.2 1.2
___________________________________________________________________________
