The Gender Vote: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 
TruthIsAll

 

 

According to the Final National Exit Poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) the two-party gender vote shares in 2000 and 2004 were the following:

2000: Gore won 55.7% of women voters, but only 44.2% of men. Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.46m.

2004: Kerry won 51.5% of women and 44.4% of men. Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m.

 

How come Bush sharply increased his share of Democratic women voters while his share of Republican males declined? One would normally expect to see a positive correlation in the Demographic Trend between the two groups. Science works by assuming that the explanation which best fits the data is correct. But it must continue to be tested against other data which either strengthens the case or causes it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.

 

Kerry's 59m recorded vote was an 8m (15.7%) increase over Gore's 51m. Yet according to the National Exit Poll (13047 respondents, updated at 12:22am), Kerry won 11.3m (58%) of the net 19.5m 2-party increase in new voters from 2000.  Therefore, how does one explain the 3.3m discrepancy between Bush's 11.5m (23%) increase in votes and his 8.2m (42%) share of new voters?  So Kerry apparently won by 62.3-58.7m.  But he actually did much better than that.

 

First, there was a net 2% defection of Bush 2000 voters to Kerry. Second, returning Nader voters preferred Kerry by better than 3-1. These factors produce a Kerry 64-57m margin - assuming 122.3m recorded votes (see the “True Vote” calculation below). But approximately 3.4m ballots were uncounted and about 75% were for Kerry. Therefore his true margin was close to 9 million votes (66.6-57.9m).

 

To believe that Bush won by the 62-59m recorded vote, one must believe that his “mandate” was provided by women who in 2000 either a) did not vote, b) voted for Gore, or c) voted for Nader. But according to the NEP, Kerry won New voters by 57-41%, Gore voters by 91-8% and Nader voters by 64-17%. So why should you believe it?

 

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2000/2004 Gender Vote Shares (2-party)

 

Gore won 55.7% of females

Kerry won 51.5% of females, a 4.15% decline.

 

Therefore, 4.15/55.7= 7.45% (net) of female Gore voters switched to Bush.

 

Gore won 44.2% of males.

Kerry won 44.4% of males, a 0.23% increase.

 

Therefore, 0.23/55.8= 0.41% (net) of male Bush voters switched to Kerry.

 

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The White Vote

 

Gore won 49.5% of the White Female vote.

Kerry won 44.4% of the White Female vote (5.04% decline).

 

Therefore, 5.04/49.5= 10.19% (net) of White Female Gore voters switched to Bush.

 

Gore won 37.5% of the White Male vote.

Kerry won 38.4% of the White Male vote (0.88% increase).

 

Therefore, 0.88/62.5= 1.41% (net) of White Male Bush voters switched to Kerry.

 

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The Black Vote

 

Gore won 94.0% of the Black Female vote.

Kerry won 90.0% of the Black Female vote (4.00% decline).

4.25% (net) of Black Female Gore voters switched to Bush.

 

Gore won 87.6% of the Black Male vote.

Kerry won 86.9% of the Black Male vote (.76% decline).

0.87% (net) of Black Male Gore voters switched to Bush.

 

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National Exit Poll

Gender demographic

 

2000 Final

(matched to recorded vote)

 

        Mix   Gore   Bush   Other  Nader

Male   48%   42%    53%    1%     3%

Fem    52%   54%    43%    1%     2%

 

Total 100%    48.3%  47.8%  1.0%   2.5%

Votes 105.4   51.0   50.5   1.1    2.9

 

 

2004 Composite 12:22am update

(13047 respondents)

 

         Mix  Kerry Bush   Other

Male     46%  47%   52%    1%

Female   54%  54%   45%    1%

                                 

Total  100%  50.8% 48.2%  1.0%

Votes  122.3 62.1  59.0   1.2

 

 

 2004 Final -2pm

(13660 respondents; matched to recorded vote)

 

         Mix  Kerry Bush   Other

Male     46%  44%   55%    1%

Female   54%  51%   48%    1%

                    

Total   100%  47.8% 51.2%  1.0%

Votes   122.3 58.4  62.6   1.2

 

 

2004 True Vote

 (adjusted to match "Voted 2000" - see below)

 

         Mix     Kerry   Bush    Other

Male     46.4%   49.5%   49.5%   1%

Female   53.6%   55.0%   44.0%   1% 

                                                                          

Total    100%     52.4%   46.6%   1.0% 

         122.3    64.1    57.0    1.2

                          

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Democratic Gender vote share trend (2-party)

Year   1992   1996   2000   2004   Change   Wtd
Total  53.1   54.4   50.0   48.5   (1.52) (1.52)
 
Male   51.9   49.4   44.2   44.4   0.23    0.11
Female 54.9   58.7   55.7   51.5   (4.15) (2.24)

Diff    3.0    9.3   11.5   7.1
 
White

Male   48.1   43.7   37.5   38.4   0.88  0.32
Female 50.0   52.7   49.5   44.4   (5.04) (2.07)

Diff    1.9    9.0   12.0   6.0

 

Black

Male   85.7   83.9   87.6   86.9   (0.76) (0.04)

Female 91.6   91.8   94.0   90.0   (4.00) (0.28)

Diff   5.9     7.9   6.4    3.1
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Composite State Exit Poll

Nov. 3, 12:40am

72,714 respondents

 

Gender Demographic

                                   

Gender   Mix      Votes    Kerry   Bush   Nader                                  

Female   53.76%   65.7     52.4%   47.0%   0.6%                     

Male     46.24%   56.5     47.0%   52.0%   1.0%

 

Votes             122.3    61.5    59.7    0.97                                  

                           50.3%   48.9%   0.8%                         

                                                                                                                                   

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National Exit Poll Timeline

Gender Demographic

 

NEP        Sample                               Kerry

Update    Size   Female    Male   Female Male   Share                            

4:00pm     8349    58%     42%    53%    47%    50.48%                           

7:33pm    11027    54%      46%   54%    47%    50.78%                           

12:22am   13047    54%      46%   54%    47%    50.78%                           

 

1:25pm    13660    54%      46%   51%    44%    47.78%  

(Final NEP matched to recorded vote)    

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National Exit Poll

Nov.3, 12:22am: 13047 respondents

 

Voted 2000                                                       

Weights adjusted to calculate True Vote based on

2000 recorded vote;                

3.5% voter mortality;

98% turnout of 2000 voters

 

               True Vote (adjusted)              Actual (before adj)

      Voted   Mix    Kerry Bush   Other         Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other

No     23.6   19.3%   57%   41%   2%            17%    57%    41%    2%    

Gore   48.2   39.4%   91%   8%    1%            39%    91%    8%     1%    

Bush   47.7   39.0%   10%   90%   0%            41%    10%    90%    0%    

Other  2.8    2.3%     71%  21%   8%            3%     71%    21%    8%    

                                                                          

Total 122.3   100%   52.4%  46.6%  1.0%          100%   51.4%  47.6%  1.0%  

              122.3  64.1   57.0   1.2           122.3  62.9   58.2   1.2   

 

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