Implausible Gore voter defection: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 
TruthIsAll

 

There were 122.3m votes recorded in 2004.  Bush won by 62.04-59.03m or 50.7-48.3% (1.22m for Nader/other).  This analysis shows that for Bush to obtain his 3 million "mandate", he needed 21% of former Gore voters. According to the Final NEP, which was forced to match the recorded vote, he had 10%.

 

There were 110.8m votes cast in 2000 and just 105.4m recorded. Gore won the recorded vote by 51.00-50.46m. Assuming that 4 million of the uncounted votes were for Gore, he won the True Vote by 55-51.5m. 

 

Of the 110.8m voter cast in 2000, approximately 5.5m died (1.25% annual voter mortality) and 3.1m did not return to vote in 2004 (97% turnout), Therefore, since approximately 102.2m returned in 2004, there were 125.7-102.2= 23.5 million new voters. Assuming an equal 97% turnout of 2000 voters, 50.7m were former Gore, 47.5m  Bush and 4.0m Nader/others.

 

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll:

1)      Kerry won 57% (13.4m) of new voters, Bush had 41% (9.6m);

2)      Kerry won 64% (2.5m) of returning third party voters, Bush. 17% (0.7m)

3)      Kerry won 10% (4.8m) of returning Bush voters, Bush had 90% (42.8m)

4)      Kerry won 91% (46.1m) of returning Gore voters; Bush had 8% (4.1m) 

 
The True Vote is calculated as:
Kerry = 91% Gore  + 10%  Bush  +  57%  New  + 64%  Other 
Bush  =   8%  Gore  + 90%  Bush +  41%  New  + 17%  Other 
 
Kerry = 66.9m  (53.2%) = 46.1 + 4.8 + 13.5 +2.5 
Bush  = 57.3m  (45.6%) = 4.1 + 42.8 + 9.7 + 0.7

 

If you believe that the vote shares for 1,2,3 above are accurate (Kerry 20.8m-Bush 53.2m) and that Bush did in fact win by 3 million votes, then you must also believe that Bush won 10.6m (21%) of 50.7m returning Gore voters.  But the 12:22am NEP indicated that Bush won just 8%, a 13% discrepancy.

 

Approximately 3200 of 13047 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.  The margin of error is 1.3%, assuming a 30% "cluster effect" for a 90-10% split. The probability of a 13% vote discrepancy is ZERO. So why would you believe that 21% of Gore voters defected to Bush and just 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry? On the other hand, if you believe that the vote shares are accurate and that Bush won just 8% of returning Gore voters, then you must believe that Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

 
 
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Bush required 21% of Gore voters in order to match his 2004 vote share
 
Assumptions:
125.7m Census 2000 votes cast (4.0 of 5.4m uncounted to Gore)
Feasible weights based on 1.25% annual voter mortality and 97% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004.       
12:22am NEP vote shares
2004 Census total votes cast: 125.7m
 
                                   Vote share                Votes (mil)               
      Turnout    Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
                                                                               
DNV      na       23.5     18.7%    57%      41%      2%        13.5     9.7     0.3 
Gore     97%      50.7     40.3%    78%      21%      1%        39.5     10.6    0.5 
Bush     97%      47.5     37.8%    10%      90%      0%        4.8      42.8    0.0   
Other    97%      4.0      3.2%     64%      17%      19%       2.6      0.7     0.8 
                                                                               
Total    102.2    125.7    100%     47.8%    50.7%    1.5%      60.4     63.8    1.5 
 
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Calculation of the True Vote
 
Assumptions:
12:22am NEP vote shares
 
Kerry wins by 9.6m votes
 
                                   Vote share                Votes (mil)               
       Turnout   Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
                                                                               
DNV      na       23.5     18.7%    57%      41%      2%        13.5     9.7    0.3 
Gore     97%      50.7     40.3%    91%      8%       1%        46.1     4.1     0.5 
Bush     97%      47.5     37.8%    10%      90%      0%        4.8      42.8    0.0   
Other    97%      4.0      3.2%     64%      17%      19%       2.6      0.7     0.8 
                                                                               
Total    102.2   125.7    100%     53.2%    45.6%    1.4%      66.9     57.3    1.5 
 
 
2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am Composite)
(13047 respondents) 
 
122.3m recorded votes
 
Kerry wins by 4.5m votes
 
                          Vote share                Votes (mil)               
         Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.8     17%      57%      41%      2%        11.9    8.5       0.4 
Gore     47.7     39%      91%      8%       1%        43.4    3.8       0.5 
Bush     50.1     41%      10%      90%      0%        5.0     45.1      0.0   
Other    3.7      3%       64%      17%      19%       2.3      0.6      0.7 
                                                                               
Total    122.3    100%     51.2%    47.5%    1.3%      62.6    58.1      1.6 
 
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2004 Final Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
(13660 respondents) 
 
Bush wins by 2.8m votes
  
                          Vote share                Votes (mil)               
         Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.8     17%      54%      45%      1%        11.2     9.4      0.2 
Gore     45.3     37%      90%      9%       1%        40.7     4.1      0.5 
Bush     52.6     43%      9%       91%      0%        4.7     47.9      0.0   
Other    3.7      3%       71%      21%      8%        2.6      0.8      0.3 
                                                                               
Total    122.3    100%     48.5%    50.7%    0.8%      59.3     62.1     1.0 
                                                                               
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