Election
Simulation Model
TruthIsAll
This model calculates state
pre-election projections and exit poll simulations discrepancies from the recorded
vote.
The 2004
Election Simulation Model contains
worksheets for 1) state pre-election and exit polls, 2) 18 national
pre-election polls, 3) 12:22am National Exit Poll, 4) “How Voted in
2000” demographic sensitivity analysis, 5) state and precinct exit poll
response optimization analysis; 6) Gender vote analysis; 7) Ohio exit
poll and 8) Census 2004 vote data.
The key assumptions which drive
the model are pre-election undecided voter allocation and the exit poll
“cluster” effect.
Input Assumptions
Undecided to Kerry:
75.0%
Exit Poll Cluster Effect:
30%
Exit Poll Data based on
WPD
Kerry Electoral Vote
Mean: 338
Median: 336
Maximum: 364
Minimum: 302
Win Prob: 100%
Pre Exit Kerry Bush
Kerry Bush Kerry
Kerry Kerry -Exceed MoE-
Vote Discrepancy
EV MoE MoE
Pre Pre Exit
Exit PreSim
ExitSim Recorded Pre
Exit Pre
Exit Diff
Avg 3.92 3.17 47.69 47.02
51.81 47.19 50.77
51.85 48.28 19
23 (2.5) (3.6)
(1.1)
AK 3 3.88 4.14
30 57
40.3 56.3
39.3 44.1 35.6
- AK (3.7)
(8.5) (4.8)
AR 6 3.96 2.95
45 50
44.8 54.1
48.9 45.9
44.6 AR
- (4..4))
(1.4) 3.0
AZ 10 3.96
3.40 46 48
46.7 52.6
51.1 45.3
44.4 AZ
- (6..7))
(0.9) 5.7
CA 55 3.93
2.89 49 42
59.8 38.9
56.3 59.6
54.4 -
CA (1.8) (5.1)
(3.3)
CO 9 3.96 2.54
47 48
50.1 48.6
52.6 50.4
47.1 CO
CO (5.5) (3.4)
2.2
CT 7 3.93 4.25
52 42
62.2 36.1
52.1 62.4
54.3 - CT 2.2
8.1) (10.3)
DE 3 3.91 4.53
45 38
61.3 37.8
60.2 61.9
53.4 DE
DE (6.9) (8.5)
(1.6)
DC 3 2.73 2.50
78 11
90.9 7.6
85.7 90.8
89.4 DC
- 3..8
1.4) (5.1)
FL 27 3.96
2.39 50 47
50.9 48.3
51.7 51.6
47.1 FL
FL (4.5) (4.5)
0.0
GA 15 3.95
3.22 42 52
42.5 56.9
45.0 43.3
41.4 -
- (3..6))
(1.9) 1.8
HI 4 3.96 5.69
45 45
56.4 42.9
49.4 56.3
54.0 HI
- 4..6 2.3)
(6.9)
ID 4 3.85
5.08 30
59 30.8
67.9 36.2
28.7 30.3
ID
- (6..0)) 1.6
7.5
IL 21 3.92 3.38 54 42
57.0 42.3
54.8 57.8
54.8 -
- 0..0
(3.0) (3.0)
IN 11 3.90
4.12 39 58
40.0 59.2
39.1 41.1
39.3 -
- 0..1
(1.8) (1.9)
IA 7 3.94 2.55
50 44 50.7
48.4 54.6
51.1 49.3
IA -
(5.33) (1.8) 3.4
KS 6 3.87 4.74
37 60
37.5 61.2
36.2 38.6
36.6 - - 0.4
(2.0) (2.4)
KY 8 3.92 3.89
39 56
39.6 59.6 42.4
38.5 39.7 - -
(2.77) 1.2 3.9
LA 9 3.96 3.10
40 48
44.1 54.8
47.8 42.9
42.3 LA
- (55.55)
(0.6) 4.9
ME 4 3.91 2.86
50 39
55.5 42.7
55.5 53.9 53.6
- -
(1.99) (0.3) 1.6
MD 10 3.93
3.99 54 43
60.0 38.9
53.3 63.3
56.0 - MD
2.7 (7.3) (10.0)
MA 12 3.60
4.03 64 27
64.8 33.9
70.3 64.4
62.1 MA - (8.2)
(2.3) 5.8
MI 17 3.95
2.57 52 45
54.4 44.7
54.6 53.3
51.2 - - (3.3)
(2.1) 1.3
MN 10 3.94
2.72 52 44
55.7 43.0
48.7 55.2
51.2 - MN 2.5
(4.0) (6.6)
MS 6 3.95 4.47
42 51
45.8 53.4
47.0 47.1
40.2 MS MS (6.8)
(6.9) (0.1)
MO 11 3.96
2.74 44 49
49.0 50.4
47.2 50.6
46.1 -
MO (1.1)
(4.5) (3.4)
MT 3 3.90 4.92
36 57
37.7 60.0
39.0 35.8
38.6 - - (0.4)
2.8 3.2
NE 5 3.83
4.38 32
61 36.7
61.8 39.3
35.6 32.7
NE - (6.5)
(2.8) 3.7
NV 5 3.96 2.77
49 49
52.9 45.4
45.2 53.1
48.1 -
NV 2.8
(5.0) (7.9)
NH 4 3.96
2.94 47
47 57.0
42.1 53.8
57.0 50.4 - NH (3.5)
(6.7) (3.2)
NJ 15 3.93
3.24 50 42
57.8 41.4
56.1 56.6
52.9 -
NJ (3.2)
(3.7) (0.5)
NM 5 3.96 2.88
49 49
52.9 45.9
47.4 52.4
49.0 -
NM 1.6
(3.3) (4.9)
NY 31 3.88
3.21 57 39
64.1 34.4
60.9 64.9
58.4 -
NY (2.5)
(6.5) (4.0)
NC 15 3.96
2.73 47 50
49.2 50.4
47.6 48.9
43.6 NC
NC (4.0) (5.3)
(1.4)
ND 3 3.92 4.72
35 55
32.9 65.5
41.0 36.3
35.5 ND - (5.5)
(0.8) 4.7
OH 20 3.96 2.87
50 47
54.2 45.4
52.2 54.9
48.7 -
OH (3.5)
(6.2) (2.8)
OK 7 3.81 3.09
28 61
33.5 66.5
38.0 30.9
34.4 -
OK (3.6) 3.5
7.1
OR 7 3.94 3.90
50 44
51.3 47.2
52.3 52.1
51.6 - - (0.7)
(0.5) 0.2
PA 21 3.95
2.89 50 45
55.3 44.0
54.0 56.6
51.0 -
PA (3.1)
(5.6) (2.5)
RI 4 3.84 4.29
56 36
61.8 36.3
63.4 59.0
59.6 - - (3.8)
0.6 4.4
SC 8 3.93 3.05
42 55
45.9 53.0
41.0 44.9 41.0
- SC (0.0)
(3.9) (3.9)
SD 3 3.95 3.19
42 52
36.3 62.0
43.3 34.6
38.4 SD
SD (4.9) 3.8
8.7
TN 11 3.96
2.98 47 50
42.8 56.5
45.7 42.7
42.5 - - (3.2)
(0.2) 3.0
TX 34 3.88
3.01 37
59 40.6
58.7 36.7
39.4 38.2 - -
1.5 (1.2) (2.7)
UT 5 3.60 4.13
24 69
29.2 68.3
31.9 30.1
26.0 UT - (5.8)
(4.1) 1.7
VT 3 3.91 4.62
53 40
66.4 31.3
55.9 71.3
59.2 - VT
3.3 (12.1) (15.4)
VA 13 3.96
3.37 47 51
49.4 49.7
49.2 48.6
45.6 - - (3.7)
(3.0) 0.6
WA 11 3.94
2.75 52 44
57.0 41.4
55.8 57.1
52.9 - WA
(2.9) (4.3) (1.3)
WV 5 3.96 3.06
45 49
40.3 59.0
45.6 41.9
43.2 - -
(2.4) 1.3 3.8
WI 10 3.94
2.70 51 44
52.0 47.0
51.8 50.7
49.8 - -
(2.1) (1.0) 1.1
WY 3 3.74 4.55
29 65
31.2 66.7
33.0 32.8
29.1 WY -
(3.9) (3.6) 0.3
Edison-Mitofsky
give 3 state exit poll estimates in the Jan '05 report. Bush's recorded vote
share was 50.73-48.27%. He won 286 electoral votes.
WPD (Within Precinct Discrepancy):
the difference between the average precinct exit poll margin and recorded vote
margin – after removing 4 “outliers”.
The WPD estimate represents the
“pristine” raw state exit poll results. E-M did not provide corresponding
vote shares, but these are easily calculated.
Kerry’s weighted average national
vote share was 51.81%. His electoral vote was 324.
BEST GEO: estimate made at
close-of-poll, weighted by sample, but not by results or pre-election
estimates.
Kerry’s vote share was 51.02%. His
electoral vote was 301.
COMPOSITE (12:22am): the estimate
after adjustment to pre-election estimates.
Kerry’s vote share was 50.28%. His
electoral vote was 288.
Calculation of Ohio exit poll
shares using WPD
The recorded (official)
B = 50.8%
K = 48.7%
BM = 2.1%
WPE= 10.9%
K = Kerry official state vote share
B = Bush official state vote share
WPE = Within Precinct Error
BM = Bush official margin
Determine:
KP = Kerry exit poll share
BP = Bush exit poll share
Calculations:
BP = B - 0.5* WPE
BP = 50.8% - 5.45% = 45.35%
KP = K + 0.5* WPE
KP = 48.7% + 5.45% = 54.15%
Confirm the Bush margin:
BEM = BP - KP = 45.35%- 54.15% = -8.8%
BEM = BM – WPE = 2.1% - 10.9% = -8.8%
The probability that the margin of
error (MoE) would be exceeded in at least N states is
calculated using the Excel binomial function:
Prob = 1- binomdist (n-1, 51, 0.025,
true)
1) Given a 30% cluster effect, 24
states exceed the MoE for Bush.
The probability is virtually ZERO!
2) Given a 70% cluster effect, 16
states exceed the MoE.
The probability is 1 in 19
trillion!
3) Assuming zero cluster effect:
27 states exceed the MoE.
Cluster
0% 10% 20%
30% 40% 50%
60% 70% 80%
States > MoE
27 25
24 24
22 20
17 16
15
Prob:
zero zero
zero zero zero 750tr
257tr 19tr 1tr
Scenario I
Cluster Effect: 30%
Kerry wins 335 Electoral votes
Forty-four states deviated to Bush
from the exit polls, 24 beyond the MoE.
Of 16 battleground states, 15
deviated to Bush, 13 beyond the MoE.
Only 6 deep red states deviated to
Kerry; none exceeded the MoE.
Kerry didn't expect to win any of
them. Was this also just a coincidence?
* indicates battleground state
Kerry MoE
Win Exit Poll
Recorded Dev States Exceed
EV
EV WPE Exit Prob Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Prob. Favor
MoE
Total
335 7.1
51.8 47.2 48.3
50.7
44 24
AK
3 9.6
4.14% 0.0% 40.3
56.3 35.6 61.2 1.3%
Bush yes
AR
6
0.5 2.95% 0.0%
44.8 54.1 44.6 54.3 43.4%
Bush
AZ
10
4.6 3.40% 2.8%
46.7 52.6 44.4 54.9
9.2% Bush
CA 55
55 10.9 2.89% 100%
59.8 38.9 54.4 44.5
0.0% Bush yes
CO*
9
6.1 2.54% 53%
50.1 48.6 47.1 51.8
1.0% Bush yes
CT 7
7 15.7 4.25%
100% 62.2 36.1 54.3
43.9 0.0% Bush yes
DE 3
3 15.9 4.53%
100% 61.3 37.8 53.4
45.8 0.0% Bush yes
DC 3
3 3.4 2.50%
100% 90.9 7.6 89.4
9.4 12.5% Bush
FL* 27 27
7.6 2.39% 77%
50.9 48.3 47.1 52.1
0.1% Bush yes
GA
15
2.2 3.22% 0.0%
42.5 56.9 41.4 58.0 25.4%
Bush
HI 4
4 4.7 5.69%
99% 56.4 42.9 54.0
45.3 20.5% Bush
ID
4
1 5.08% 0.0%
30.8 67.9 30.3 68.4 41.8%
Bush
IL 21
21 4.4 3.38%
100% 57.0 42.3 54.8
44.5 10.3% Bush
IN
11 1.5
4.12% 0.0% 40.0
59.2 39.3 59.9 36.3% Bush
IA*
7
5 2.55% 71%
50.7 48.4 49.3 50.0 13.8%
Bush
KS
6
1.7 4.74% 0.0%
37.5 61.2 36.6 62.0 35.9%
Bush
KY
8
-0.1 3.89%> 0.0%
39.6 59.6 39.7 59.6 48.2%
Kerry
LA
9
3.8 3.10% 0.0%
44.1 54.8 42.3 56.8 12.9%
Bush
ME 4
4 3.8 2.86%
100% 55.5 42.7 53.6
44.6 9.3% Bush
MD 10
10 8.1 3.99%
100% 60.0 38.9 56.0
43.0 2.4% Bush yes
MA 12
12 5.8 4.03%
100% 64.8 33.9 62.1
36.9 9.4% Bush
MI* 17
17 6.3 2.57%
100% 54.4 44.7 51.2
47.8 0.8% Bush yes
MN* 10
10 9.3 2.72%
100% 55.7 43.0 51.2
47.7 0.1% Bush yes
MS
6
11.3 4.47% 3.3%
45.8 53.4 40.2 59.1
0.7% Bush yes
MO* 11
11 5.8 2.74%
24% 49.0 50.4 46.1
53.3 1.9% Bush yes
MT
3
-1.8 4.92%> 0.0%
37.7 60.0 38.6 59.1 36.5%
Kerry
NE
5
8.1 4.38% 0.0%
36.7 61.8 32.7 66.0
3.8% Bush
NV* 5
5 10.1 2.77%
98% 52.9 45.4 48.1
50.7 0.0% Bush yes
NH* 4
4 13.6 2.94%
100% 57.0 42.1 50.4
49.0 0.0% Bush yes
NJ 15
15 9.7 3.24%
100% 57.8 41.4 52.9
46.3 0.2% Bush yes
NM* 5
5 7.8 2.88%
98% 52.9 45.9 49.0
49.8 0.4% Bush yes
NY 31
31 11.4 3.21% 100%
64.1 34.4 58.4 40.1
0.0% Bush yes
NC* 15
15 11.3 2.73% 28%
49.2 50.4 43.6 56.0
0.0% Bush yes
ND
3
-5.2 4.72%> 0.0%
32.9 65.5 35.5 62.9 14.0%
Kerry
OH* 20
20 10.9 2.87% 99.8%
54.2 45.4 48.7 50.8
0.0% Bush yes
OK
7
-1.9 3.09%> 0.0%
33.5 66.5 34.4 65.6 27.8%
Kerry
OR* 7
7 0 3.90% 74% 51.3
47.2 51.6 47.4 44.0% Kerry
PA* 21
21 8.8 2.89%
100% 55.3 44.0 51.0
48.5 0.2% Bush yes
RI 4
4 4.7 4.29%
100% 61.8 36.3 59.6
38.8 15.5% Bush
SC
8
10 3.05% 0.4%
45.9 53.0 41.0 58.1
0.1% Bush yes
SD
3 -4.2
3.19% 0.0% 36.3
62.0 38.4 59.9 9.4% Kerry
TN
11
0.5 2.98% 0.0%
42.8 56.5 42.5 56.8 42.8%
Bush
TX
34
4.8 3.01% 0.0%
40.6 58.7 38.2 61.1
6.1% Bush
UT
5
6.4 4.13% 0.0%
29.2 68.3 26.0 71.6
6.6% Bush
VT 3
3 15 4.62% 100% 66.4 31.3
59.2 39.0 0.1% Bush yes
VA*
13
7.9 3.37% 36%
49.4 49.7 45.6 53.8
1.3% Bush yes
WA* 11
11 8.4 2.75%
100% 57.0 41.4 52.9
45.7 0.2% Bush yes
WV
5
-5.8 3.06%> 0.0%
40.3 59.0 43.2 56.1
3.1% Kerry
WI* 10
10 4.7 2.70%
93% 52.0 47.0 49.8
49.4 5.2% Bush
WY
3
4.3 4.55% 0.0%
31.2 66.7 29.1 69.0 18.6%
Bush
Scenario II
Cluster Effect: 0%
Kerry wins 322 Electoral votes
Forty-four states deviate to Bush
from the exit polls.
Twenty-seven exceed the MoE.
Kerry MoE
Win Exit Poll
Recorded Dev. States Exceed
EV
EV WPE Exit Prob Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Prob. Favor
MoE
Total
322
7.1
51.8 47.2 48.3
50.7
44 27
AK
3
9.6 3.18% 0.0%
40.3 56.3 35.6 61.2
0.2% Bush yes
AR
6
0.5 2.27% 0.0%
44.8 54.1 44.6 54.3 41.4%
Bush
AZ
10
4.6 2.61% 0.7%
46.7 52.6 44.4 54.9
4.2% Bush
CA 55
55 10.9 2.22% 100%
59.8 38.9 54.4 44.5
0.0% Bush yes
CO
9
6.1 1.95% 54%
50.1 48.6 47.1 51.8
0.1% Bush yes
CT 7
7 15.7 3.27%
100% 62.2 36.1 54.3
43.9 0.0% Bush yes
DE 3
3 15.9 3.48%
100% 61.3 37.8 53.4
45.8 0.0% Bush yes
DC 3
3 3.4 1.92%
100% 90.9 7.6 89.4
9.4 6.8% Bush
FL 27
27 7.6 1.84%
83% 50.9 48.3 47.1
52.1 0.0% Bush yes
GA
15
2.2 2.48% 0.0%
42.5 56.9 41.4 58.0 19.5%
Bush
HI 4
4 4.7 4.38%
99.8% 56.4 42.9 54.0
45.3 14.2% Bush
ID
4
1 3.91% 0.0%
30.8 67.9 30.3 68.4 39.4%
Bush
IL 21
21 4.4 2.60%
100% 57.0 42.3 54.8
44.5 5.0% Bush
IN
11
1.5 3.17% 0.0%
40.0 59.2 39.3 59.9 32.4%
Bush
IA 7
7 5 1.96% 76% 50.7
48.4 49.3 50.0 7.9%
Bush
KS
6
1.7 3.65% 0.0%
37.5 61.2 36.6 62.0 31.9%
Bush
KY
8
-0.1 3.00%> 0.0%
39.6 59.6 39.7 59.6 47.7%
Kerry
LA
9
3.8 2.38% 0.0%
44.1 54.8 42.3 56.8
7.1% Bush
ME 4
4 3.8 2.20%
100% 55.5 42.7 53.6
44.6 4.3% Bush
MD 10
10 8.1 3.07%
100% 60.0 38.9 56.0
43.0 0.5% Bush yes
MA 12
12 5.8 3.10%
100% 64.8 33.9 62.1
36.9 4.3% Bush
MI 17
17 6.3 1.98%
100% 54.4 44.7 51.2
47.8 0.1% Bush yes
MN 10
10 9.3 2.09%
100% 55.7 43.0 51.2
47.7 0.0% Bush yes
MS
6
11.3 3.44% 0.8% 45.8
53.4 40.2 59.1 0.1%
Bush yes
MO
11
5.8 2.11% 18%
49.0 50.4 46.1 53.3
0.3% Bush yes
MT
3
-1.8 3.78%> 0.0%
37.7 60.0 38.6 59.1 32.7%
Kerry
NE
5
8.1 3.37% 0.0%
36.7 61.8 32.7 66.0
1.0% Bush yes
NV 5
5 10.1 2.13%
99.6% 52.9 45.4 48.1
50.7 0.0% Bush yes
NH 4
4 13.6 2.27%
100% 57.0 42.1 50.4
49.0 0.0% Bush yes
NJ 15
15 9.7 2.49%
100% 57.8 41.4 52.9
46.3 0.0% Bush yes
NM 5
5 7.8 2.22%
99.5% 52.9 45.9 49.0
49.8 0.0% Bush yes
NY 31
31 11.4 2.47% 100%
64.1 34.4 58.4 40.1
0.0% Bush yes
NC
15
11.3 2.10% 23%
49.2 50.4 43.6 56.0
0.0% Bush yes
ND
3
-5.2 3.63%> 0.0%
32.9 65.5 35.5 62.9
8.0% Kerry
OH 20
20 10.9 2.21% 100%
54.2 45.4 48.7 50.8
0.0% Bush yes
OK
7
-1.9 2.38%> 0.0%
33.5 66.5 34.4 65.6 22.2%
Kerry
OR
7
0 3.00% 80%
51.3 47.2 51.6 47.4 42.2%
Kerry
PA 21
21 8.8 2.22%
100% 55.3 44.0 51.0
48.5 0.0% Bush yes
RI 4
4 4.7 3.30%
100% 61.8 36.3 59.6
38.8 9.3% Bush
SC
8
10 2.34% 0.0%
45.9 53.0 41.0 58.1
0.0% Bush yes
SD
3
-4.2 2.45%> 0.0%
36.3 62.0 38.4 59.9
4.3% Kerry
TN
11
0.5 2.29% 0.0%
42.8 56.5 42.5 56.8 40.7%
Bush
TX
34
4.8 2.31% 0.0%
40.6 58.7 38.2 61.1
2.2% Bush yes
UT
5
6.4 3.18% 0.0%
29.2 68.3 26.0 71.6
2.5% Bush
VT 3
3 15 3.56% 100% 66.4 31.3
59.2 39.0 0.0% Bush yes
VA 13
13 7.9 2.59%
33% 49.4 49.7 45.6
53.8 0.2% Bush yes
WA 11
11 8.4 2.12%
100% 57.0 41.4 52.9
45.7 0.0% Bush yes
WV
5
-5.8 2.35%> 0.0%
40.3 59.0 43.2 56.1
0.8% Kerry
WI 10
10 4.7 2.08%
97% 52.0 47.0 49.8
49.4 1.7% Bush yes
WY
3
4.3 3.50% 0.0%
31.2 66.7 29.1 69.0 12.3%
Bush
