Election Simulation Model

 
TruthIsAll

 

This model calculates state pre-election projections and exit poll simulations  discrepancies from the recorded vote.

 

The 2004 Election Simulation Model contains worksheets for 1) state pre-election and exit polls, 2) 18 national pre-election polls,  3) 12:22am National Exit Poll, 4) “How Voted in 2000” demographic sensitivity analysis,  5) state and precinct exit poll response optimization analysis; 6) Gender vote analysis;  7) Ohio exit poll and 8) Census 2004 vote data.

 

The key assumptions which drive the model are pre-election undecided voter allocation and the exit poll “cluster” effect.

         

Input Assumptions

Undecided to Kerry: 75.0%                                                          

Exit Poll Cluster Effect: 30%                                                              

Exit Poll Data based on WPD                               

                                                                                           

Kerry Electoral Vote         

Mean:    338   

Median:  336  

Maximum: 364  

Minimum: 302  

 

Win Prob: 100%

                                                                                                           

       Pre    Exit  Kerry  Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Kerry    Kerry   -Exceed MoE-      Vote Discrepancy

   EV  MoE    MoE   Pre    Pre      Exit     Exit     PreSim   ExitSim  Recorded Pre     Exit     Pre     Exit     Diff

 

Avg    3.92   3.17  47.69  47.02    51.81    47.19    50.77    51.85    48.28    19       23     (2.5)    (3.6)    (1.1)

                                                                                                                  

AL 9   3.91   4.64   39    57       42.5     56.8     43.6     40.6     36.9     AL       -      (6..7))    (3.8)    2.9

AK 3   3.88   4.14   30    57       40.3     56.3     39.3     44.1     35.6     -       AK     (3.7)    (8.5)    (4.8)

AR 6   3.96   2.95   45    50       44.8     54.1     48.9     45.9     44.6     AR       -      (4..4))    (1.4)    3.0

AZ 10  3.96   3.40   46    48       46.7     52.6     51.1     45.3     44.4     AZ       -      (6..7))    (0.9)    5.7

CA 55  3.93   2.89   49    42       59.8     38.9     56.3     59.6     54.4     -        CA     (1.8)    (5.1)    (3.3)

                                                                                                               

CO 9   3.96   2.54   47    48       50.1     48.6     52.6     50.4     47.1     CO       CO     (5.5)    (3.4)    2.2

CT 7   3.93   4.25   52    42       62.2     36.1     52.1     62.4     54.3     -       CT      2.2      8.1)    (10.3)

DE 3   3.91   4.53   45    38       61.3     37.8     60.2     61.9     53.4     DE       DE     (6.9)    (8.5)    (1.6)

DC 3   2.73   2.50   78    11       90.9     7.6      85.7     90.8     89.4     DC       -       3..8      1.4)    (5.1)

FL 27  3.96   2.39   50    47       50.9     48.3     51.7     51.6     47.1     FL       FL     (4.5)    (4.5)    0.0

                                                                                                              

GA 15  3.95   3.22   42    52       42.5     56.9     45.0     43.3     41.4     -        -      (3..6))    (1.9)    1.8

HI 4   3.96   5.69   45    45       56.4     42.9     49.4     56.3     54.0     HI       -       4..6      2.3)    (6.9)

ID 4   3.85   5.08   30    59       30.8     67.9     36.2     28.7     30.3     ID       -      (6..0))     1.6      7.5

IL 21  3.92   3.38   54    42       57.0     42.3     54.8     57.8     54.8     -        -       0..0     (3.0)    (3.0)

IN 11  3.90   4.12   39    58       40.0     59.2     39.1     41.1     39.3     -        -       0..1     (1.8)    (1.9)

                                                                                               

IA 7   3.94   2.55   50    44       50.7     48.4     54.6     51.1     49.3     IA       -       (5.33)    (1.8)    3.4

KS 6   3.87   4.74   37    60       37.5     61.2     36.2     38.6     36.6     -        -         0.4      (2.0)    (2.4)

KY 8   3.92   3.89   39    56       39.6     59.6     42.4     38.5     39.7     -       -       (2.77)    1.2      3.9

LA 9   3.96   3.10   40    48       44.1     54.8     47.8     42.9     42.3     LA       -       (55.55)    (0.6)    4.9

ME 4   3.91   2.86   50    39       55.5     42.7     55.5     53.9     53.6     -       -       (1.99)    (0.3)    1.6

                                                                                                               

MD 10  3.93   3.99   54    43       60.0     38.9     53.3     63.3     56.0     -       MD       2.7     (7.3)   (10.0)

MA 12  3.60   4.03   64    27       64.8     33.9     70.3     64.4     62.1     MA      -        (8.2)    (2.3)    5.8

MI 17  3.95   2.57   52    45       54.4     44.7     54.6     53.3     51.2     -       -        (3.3)    (2.1)    1.3

MN 10  3.94   2.72   52    44       55.7     43.0     48.7     55.2     51.2     -       MN       2.5      (4.0)    (6.6)

MS 6   3.95   4.47   42    51       45.8     53.4     47.0     47.1     40.2     MS      MS       (6.8)    (6.9)    (0.1)

                                                                                                               

MO 11  3.96   2.74   44    49       49.0     50.4     47.2     50.6     46.1     -        MO       (1.1)    (4.5)    (3.4)

MT 3   3.90   4.92   36    57       37.7     60.0     39.0     35.8     38.6     -        -       (0.4)    2.8      3.2

NE 5   3.83   4.38   32    61       36.7     61.8     39.3     35.6     32.7     NE       -       (6.5)    (2.8)    3.7

NV 5   3.96   2.77   49    49       52.9     45.4     45.2     53.1     48.1     -        NV        2.8     (5.0)    (7.9)

NH 4   3.96   2.94   47    47       57.0     42.1     53.8     57.0     50.4     -       NH       (3.5)    (6.7)    (3.2)

                                                                                                               

NJ 15  3.93   3.24   50    42       57.8     41.4     56.1     56.6     52.9     -        NJ       (3.2)    (3.7)    (0.5)

NM 5   3.96   2.88   49    49       52.9     45.9     47.4     52.4     49.0     -        NM       1.6      (3.3)    (4.9)

NY 31  3.88   3.21   57    39       64.1     34.4     60.9     64.9     58.4     -        NY       (2.5)    (6.5)    (4.0)

NC 15  3.96   2.73   47    50       49.2     50.4     47.6     48.9     43.6     NC       NC       (4.0)    (5.3)    (1.4)

ND 3   3.92   4.72   35    55       32.9     65.5     41.0     36.3     35.5     ND      -        (5.5)    (0.8)    4.7

                                                                                                               

OH 20  3.96   2.87   50    47       54.2     45.4     52.2     54.9     48.7     -        OH       (3.5)    (6.2)    (2.8)

OK 7   3.81   3.09   28    61       33.5     66.5     38.0     30.9     34.4     -        OK       (3.6)    3.5      7.1

OR 7   3.94   3.90   50    44       51.3     47.2     52.3     52.1     51.6     -       -        (0.7)    (0.5)    0.2

PA 21  3.95   2.89   50    45       55.3     44.0     54.0     56.6     51.0     -        PA       (3.1)    (5.6)    (2.5)

RI 4   3.84   4.29   56    36       61.8     36.3     63.4     59.0     59.6     -       -        (3.8)    0.6      4.4

                                                                                                               

SC 8   3.93   3.05   42    55       45.9     53.0     41.0     44.9     41.0     -       SC       (0.0)    (3.9)    (3.9)

SD 3   3.95   3.19   42    52       36.3     62.0     43.3     34.6     38.4     SD       SD       (4.9)    3.8      8.7

TN 11  3.96   2.98   47    50       42.8     56.5     45.7     42.7     42.5     -       -        (3.2)    (0.2)    3.0

TX 34  3.88   3.01   37    59       40.6     58.7     36.7     39.4     38.2     -       -         1.5     (1.2)    (2.7)

UT 5   3.60   4.13   24    69       29.2     68.3     31.9     30.1     26.0     UT      -        (5.8)    (4.1)    1.7

                                                                                                               

VT 3   3.91   4.62   53    40       66.4     31.3     55.9     71.3     59.2     -       VT        3.3    (12.1)   (15.4)

VA 13  3.96   3.37   47    51       49.4     49.7     49.2     48.6     45.6     -       -        (3.7)    (3.0)    0.6

WA 11  3.94   2.75   52    44       57.0     41.4     55.8     57.1     52.9     -       WA        (2.9)   (4.3)    (1.3)

WV 5   3.96   3.06   45    49       40.3     59.0     45.6     41.9     43.2     -       -         (2.4)    1.3      3.8

WI 10  3.94   2.70   51    44       52.0     47.0     51.8     50.7     49.8     -       -         (2.1)    (1.0)    1.1

WY 3   3.74   4.55   29    65       31.2     66.7     33.0     32.8     29.1     WY      -         (3.9)    (3.6)    0.3

 

 

Monte Carlo Polling Simulation

 

Edison-Mitofsky give 3 state exit poll estimates in the Jan '05 report. Bush's recorded vote share was 50.73-48.27%. He won 286 electoral votes.

 

WPD (Within Precinct Discrepancy): the difference between the average precinct exit poll margin and recorded vote margin – after removing 4 “outliers”.

The WPD estimate represents the “pristine” raw state exit poll results.  E-M did not provide corresponding vote shares, but these are easily calculated.

Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 51.81%. His electoral vote was 324.

 

BEST GEO: estimate made at close-of-poll, weighted by sample, but not by results or pre-election estimates.

Kerry’s vote share was 51.02%. His electoral vote was 301.

 

COMPOSITE (12:22am): the estimate after adjustment to pre-election estimates.

Kerry’s vote share was 50.28%. His electoral vote was 288.

 

 

Calculation of Ohio exit poll shares using WPD

 

The recorded (official) Ohio vote was:

B = 50.8%

K = 48.7%

BM = 2.1%

WPE= 10.9%

 

K   = Kerry official state vote share

B   = Bush official state vote share

WPE = Within Precinct Error

BM  = Bush official margin

 

Determine:

KP = Kerry exit poll share

BP = Bush exit poll share

 

Calculations:

BP = B - 0.5* WPE

BP = 50.8% - 5.45% = 45.35%

KP = K + 0.5* WPE

KP = 48.7% + 5.45% = 54.15%

 

Confirm the Bush margin:

BEM = BP - KP = 45.35%- 54.15% = -8.8%

BEM = BM – WPE = 2.1% - 10.9% = -8.8%

 

 

The probability that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in at least N states is calculated using the Excel binomial function:

Prob = 1- binomdist (n-1, 51, 0.025, true)

 

1) Given a 30% cluster effect, 24 states exceed the MoE for Bush.

The probability is virtually ZERO!

 

2) Given a 70% cluster effect, 16 states exceed the MoE.

The probability is 1 in 19 trillion!

 

3) Assuming zero cluster effect: 27 states exceed the MoE.

 

Cluster       0%     10%    20%    30%    40%    50%    60%    70%    80%   

States > MoE  27     25     24     24     22     20     17     16     15        

Prob:         zero   zero   zero   zero   zero   750tr  257tr  19tr   1tr   

     

 

Scenario I

Cluster Effect: 30%

Kerry wins 335 Electoral votes

 

Forty-four states deviated to Bush from the exit polls, 24 beyond the MoE.

Of 16 battleground states, 15 deviated to Bush, 13 beyond the MoE.

 

Only 6 deep red states deviated to Kerry; none exceeded the MoE.

Kerry didn't expect to win any of them. Was this also just a coincidence?

 

* indicates battleground state

                                                                          

              Kerry         MoE    Win    Exit Poll      Recorded    Dev    States Exceed

       EV     EV     WPE    Exit   Prob   Kerry Bush    Kerry  Bush  Prob.   Favor  MoE

       Total  335    7.1                  51.8   47.2   48.3   50.7          44     24

                                                                                 

AL     9             11.3   4.64%  0.1%   42.5   56.8   36.9   62.5   0.9%   Bush   yes

AK     3             9.6    4.14%  0.0%   40.3   56.3   35.6   61.2   1.3%   Bush   yes

AR     6             0.5    2.95%  0.0%   44.8   54.1   44.6   54.3   43.4%  Bush  

AZ     10            4.6    3.40%  2.8%   46.7   52.6   44.4   54.9   9.2%   Bush  

CA     55     55     10.9   2.89%  100%   59.8   38.9   54.4   44.5   0.0%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

CO*    9             6.1    2.54%  53%    50.1   48.6   47.1   51.8   1.0%   Bush   yes

CT     7      7      15.7   4.25%  100%   62.2   36.1   54.3   43.9   0.0%   Bush   yes

DE     3      3      15.9   4.53%  100%   61.3   37.8   53.4   45.8   0.0%   Bush   yes

DC     3      3      3.4    2.50%  100%   90.9   7.6    89.4   9.4    12.5%  Bush  

FL*    27     27     7.6    2.39%  77%    50.9   48.3   47.1   52.1   0.1%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

GA     15            2.2    3.22%  0.0%   42.5   56.9   41.4   58.0   25.4%  Bush  

HI     4      4      4.7    5.69%  99%    56.4   42.9   54.0   45.3   20.5%  Bush  

ID     4             1      5.08%  0.0%   30.8   67.9   30.3   68.4   41.8%  Bush  

IL     21     21     4.4    3.38%  100%   57.0   42.3   54.8   44.5   10.3%  Bush  

IN     11            1.5    4.12%  0.0%   40.0   59.2   39.3   59.9   36.3%  Bush  

                                                                                 

IA*    7             5      2.55%  71%    50.7   48.4   49.3   50.0   13.8%  Bush  

KS     6             1.7    4.74%  0.0%   37.5   61.2   36.6   62.0   35.9%  Bush  

KY     8             -0.1   3.89%>  0.0%   39.6   59.6   39.7   59.6   48.2%  Kerry 

LA     9             3.8    3.10%  0.0%   44.1   54.8   42.3   56.8   12.9%  Bush  

ME     4      4      3.8    2.86%  100%   55.5   42.7   53.6   44.6   9.3%   Bush  

                                                                                 

MD     10     10     8.1    3.99%  100%   60.0   38.9   56.0   43.0   2.4%   Bush   yes

MA     12     12     5.8    4.03%  100%   64.8   33.9   62.1   36.9   9.4%   Bush  

MI*    17     17     6.3    2.57%  100%   54.4   44.7   51.2   47.8   0.8%   Bush   yes

MN*    10     10     9.3    2.72%  100%   55.7   43.0   51.2   47.7   0.1%   Bush   yes

MS     6             11.3   4.47%  3.3%   45.8   53.4   40.2   59.1   0.7%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

MO*    11     11     5.8    2.74%  24%    49.0   50.4   46.1   53.3   1.9%   Bush   yes

MT     3             -1.8   4.92%>  0.0%   37.7   60.0   38.6   59.1   36.5%  Kerry 

NE     5             8.1    4.38%  0.0%   36.7   61.8   32.7   66.0   3.8%   Bush  

NV*    5      5      10.1   2.77%  98%    52.9   45.4   48.1   50.7   0.0%   Bush   yes

NH*    4      4      13.6   2.94%  100%   57.0   42.1   50.4   49.0   0.0%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

NJ     15     15     9.7    3.24%  100%   57.8   41.4   52.9   46.3   0.2%   Bush   yes

NM*    5      5      7.8    2.88%  98%    52.9   45.9   49.0   49.8   0.4%   Bush   yes

NY     31     31     11.4   3.21%  100%   64.1   34.4   58.4   40.1   0.0%   Bush   yes

NC*    15     15     11.3   2.73%  28%    49.2   50.4   43.6   56.0   0.0%   Bush   yes

ND     3             -5.2   4.72%>  0.0%   32.9   65.5   35.5   62.9   14.0%  Kerry 

                                                                                 

OH*    20     20     10.9   2.87%  99.8%  54.2   45.4   48.7   50.8   0.0%   Bush   yes

OK     7             -1.9   3.09%>  0.0%   33.5   66.5   34.4   65.6   27.8%  Kerry 

OR*    7      7      0      3.90%  74%    51.3   47.2   51.6   47.4   44.0%  Kerry 

PA*    21     21     8.8    2.89%  100%   55.3   44.0   51.0   48.5   0.2%   Bush   yes

RI     4      4      4.7    4.29%  100%   61.8   36.3   59.6   38.8   15.5%  Bush  

                                                                                 

SC     8             10     3.05%  0.4%   45.9   53.0   41.0   58.1   0.1%   Bush   yes

SD     3             -4.2   3.19%  0.0%   36.3   62.0   38.4   59.9   9.4%   Kerry 

TN     11            0.5    2.98%  0.0%   42.8   56.5   42.5   56.8   42.8%  Bush  

TX     34            4.8    3.01%  0.0%   40.6   58.7   38.2   61.1   6.1%   Bush  

UT     5             6.4    4.13%  0.0%   29.2   68.3   26.0   71.6   6.6%   Bush  

                                                                                 

VT     3      3      15     4.62%  100%   66.4   31.3   59.2   39.0   0.1%   Bush   yes

VA*    13            7.9    3.37%  36%    49.4   49.7   45.6   53.8   1.3%   Bush   yes

WA*    11     11     8.4    2.75%  100%   57.0   41.4   52.9   45.7   0.2%   Bush   yes

WV     5             -5.8   3.06%>  0.0%   40.3   59.0   43.2   56.1   3.1%   Kerry 

WI*    10     10     4.7    2.70%  93%    52.0   47.0   49.8   49.4   5.2%   Bush  

WY     3             4.3    4.55%  0.0%   31.2   66.7   29.1   69.0   18.6%  Bush  

 

 

Scenario II

Cluster Effect: 0%

Kerry wins 322 Electoral votes

 

Forty-four states deviate to Bush from the exit polls.

Twenty-seven exceed the MoE.

 

              Kerry         MoE    Win    Exit Poll      Recorded    Dev.   States Exceed

       EV     EV     WPE    Exit   Prob   Kerry Bush    Kerry  Bush   Prob.  Favor  MoE

       Total  322    7.1                  51.8   47.2   48.3   50.7          44     27

                                                                                 

AL     9             11.3   3.57%  0.0%   42.5   56.8   36.9   62.5   0.1%   Bush   yes

AK     3             9.6    3.18%  0.0%   40.3   56.3   35.6   61.2   0.2%   Bush   yes

AR     6             0.5    2.27%  0.0%   44.8   54.1   44.6   54.3   41.4%  Bush  

AZ     10            4.6    2.61%  0.7%   46.7   52.6   44.4   54.9   4.2%   Bush  

CA     55     55     10.9   2.22%  100%   59.8   38.9   54.4   44.5   0.0%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

CO     9             6.1    1.95%  54%    50.1   48.6   47.1   51.8   0.1%   Bush   yes

CT     7      7      15.7   3.27%  100%   62.2   36.1   54.3   43.9   0.0%   Bush   yes

DE     3      3      15.9   3.48%  100%   61.3   37.8   53.4   45.8   0.0%   Bush   yes

DC     3      3      3.4    1.92%  100%   90.9   7.6    89.4   9.4    6.8%   Bush  

FL     27     27     7.6    1.84%  83%    50.9   48.3   47.1   52.1   0.0%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

GA     15            2.2    2.48%  0.0%   42.5   56.9   41.4   58.0   19.5%  Bush  

HI     4      4      4.7    4.38%  99.8%  56.4   42.9   54.0   45.3   14.2%  Bush  

ID     4             1      3.91%  0.0%   30.8   67.9   30.3   68.4   39.4%  Bush  

IL     21     21     4.4    2.60%  100%   57.0   42.3   54.8   44.5   5.0%   Bush  

IN     11            1.5    3.17%  0.0%   40.0   59.2   39.3   59.9   32.4%  Bush  

                                                                                 

IA     7      7      5      1.96%  76%    50.7   48.4   49.3   50.0   7.9%   Bush  

KS     6             1.7    3.65%  0.0%   37.5   61.2   36.6   62.0   31.9%  Bush  

KY     8             -0.1   3.00%>  0.0%   39.6   59.6   39.7   59.6   47.7%  Kerry 

LA     9             3.8    2.38%  0.0%   44.1   54.8   42.3   56.8   7.1%   Bush  

ME     4      4      3.8    2.20%  100%   55.5   42.7   53.6   44.6   4.3%   Bush  

                                                                                 

MD     10     10     8.1    3.07%  100%   60.0   38.9   56.0   43.0   0.5%   Bush   yes

MA     12     12     5.8    3.10%  100%   64.8   33.9   62.1   36.9   4.3%   Bush  

MI     17     17     6.3    1.98%  100%   54.4   44.7   51.2   47.8   0.1%   Bush   yes

MN     10     10     9.3    2.09%  100%   55.7   43.0   51.2   47.7   0.0%   Bush   yes

MS     6             11.3   3.44%  0.8%   45.8   53.4   40.2   59.1   0.1%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

MO     11            5.8    2.11%  18%    49.0   50.4   46.1   53.3   0.3%   Bush   yes

MT     3             -1.8   3.78%>  0.0%   37.7   60.0   38.6   59.1   32.7%  Kerry 

NE     5             8.1    3.37%  0.0%   36.7   61.8   32.7   66.0   1.0%   Bush   yes

NV     5      5      10.1   2.13%  99.6%  52.9   45.4   48.1   50.7   0.0%   Bush   yes

NH     4      4      13.6   2.27%  100%   57.0   42.1   50.4   49.0   0.0%   Bush   yes

                                                                                 

NJ     15     15     9.7    2.49%  100%   57.8   41.4   52.9   46.3   0.0%   Bush   yes

NM     5      5      7.8    2.22%  99.5%  52.9   45.9   49.0   49.8   0.0%   Bush   yes

NY     31     31     11.4   2.47%  100%   64.1   34.4   58.4   40.1   0.0%   Bush   yes

NC     15            11.3   2.10%  23%    49.2   50.4   43.6   56.0   0.0%   Bush   yes

ND     3             -5.2   3.63%>  0.0%   32.9   65.5   35.5   62.9   8.0%   Kerry 

                                                                                 

OH     20     20     10.9   2.21%  100%   54.2   45.4   48.7   50.8   0.0%   Bush   yes

OK     7             -1.9   2.38%>  0.0%   33.5   66.5   34.4   65.6   22.2%  Kerry 

OR     7             0      3.00%  80%    51.3   47.2   51.6   47.4   42.2%  Kerry 

PA     21     21     8.8    2.22%  100%   55.3   44.0   51.0   48.5   0.0%   Bush   yes

RI     4      4      4.7    3.30%  100%   61.8   36.3   59.6   38.8   9.3%   Bush  

                                                                                 

SC     8             10     2.34%  0.0%   45.9   53.0   41.0   58.1   0.0%   Bush   yes

SD     3             -4.2   2.45%>  0.0%   36.3   62.0   38.4   59.9   4.3%   Kerry 

TN     11            0.5    2.29%  0.0%   42.8   56.5   42.5   56.8   40.7%  Bush  

TX     34            4.8    2.31%  0.0%   40.6   58.7   38.2   61.1   2.2%   Bush   yes

UT     5             6.4    3.18%  0.0%   29.2   68.3   26.0   71.6   2.5%   Bush  

                                                                                 

VT     3      3      15     3.56%  100%   66.4   31.3   59.2   39.0   0.0%   Bush   yes

VA     13     13     7.9    2.59%  33%    49.4   49.7   45.6   53.8   0.2%   Bush   yes

WA     11     11     8.4    2.12%  100%   57.0   41.4   52.9   45.7   0.0%   Bush   yes

WV     5             -5.8   2.35%>  0.0%   40.3   59.0   43.2   56.1   0.8%   Kerry 

WI     10     10     4.7    2.08%  97%    52.0   47.0   49.8   49.4   1.7%   Bush   yes

WY     3             4.3    3.50%  0.0%   31.2   66.7   29.1   69.0   12.3%  Bush