Location-size/Regional analysis: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

TruthIsAll

 

The National Exit Poll regional weightings matched the aggregate state exit poll weightings. However, adjustments were made to the state vote shares: the "pristine" state average WPE (change in margin from exit poll to vote tally) morphed to the Composite (weighted average of Pre-election and Best Survey estimates) and then the Final (matched to the Recorded vote). Kerry's aggregate state exit poll share was 51.8% (325 electoral votes). The Margin of Error was exceeded in 29 of 50 states for Bush.

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. 

 

This analysis analyzes the change in NEP "location-size" vote shares between the 2000 Final NEP, the 2004 preliminary 7:33pm (11027 respondents) and the Final NEP. Kerry led at 7:33pm by 50.5-47.6% (Table 4) but the Final (Table 2) was forced to match the recorded vote count by inflating Bush's vote shares. Urban and suburban locations were the prime targets. Bush vote shares were inflated in every demographic category.

 

Another objective was to determine a plausible combination of vote shares for each of the five location categories. The 7:33pm NEP "location-size" vote shares were adjusted (Table 5) to match the True Vote (Kerry 52.6/Bush 46.4%) which was calculated using feasible weights applied to the 12:22am NEP "Voted 2000" vote shares (Table 7). A sensitivity analysis table displays the effects of various Urban and Small Town/Rural vote share scenarios on Kerry's True Vote.

 

Exit Poll              Kerry Vote

State Gender      51.8% (WPE-adjusted aggregate)

NEP Location    51.7% (WPE-adjusted state aggregate)

NEP Location     52.6% (matched to 12:22am NEP Voted 2000 w/feasible weights)

NEP Region       51.8% (7:33pm update- WPE adjusted)

NEP Region       50.5% (7:33pm update)

NEP Region       48.2% (2pm Final- matched to recorded vote)

 

These are the relevant NEP statistics:

 

Final 2000 NEP (Table 1)

Gore urban margin:                7.8m

Bush suburban margin:           0.9m

Bush small town/rural margin: 6.4m

 

Final 2004 NEP (Table 2)   Change from 2000

Kerry urban margin:               3.5m (-4.3m)

Bush suburban margin:           2.8m (+1.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 3.9m (-2.5m)

 

7:33pm 2004 NEP (Table 4)

Kerry urban margin:               5.9m (-1.9m)

Kerry suburban margin:         0.0m (+0.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.3m (-4.1m)

 

2004 True Vote (Table 5)

Kerry urban margin:              8.2m (+0.4m)

Kerry suburban margin:         1.7m (+2.6m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.1m (-4.3m)

 

Change in Final NEP Bush shares from 2000 to 2004:

1. 9% INCREASE in the URBAN vote (Democratic strongholds)

2. 3% INCREASE in the SUBURBAN vote (trending Democratic)

3. 3% DECREASE in the SMALL TOWN/RURAL vote (Republican strongholds)

 

The following graphs display the Bush vote shares by location size:

 

Vote share   (5 categories)

Vote share   (3 categories and national)

Vote count  (in millions)

Vote change from 2000 (in millions)

Percentage vote change from 2000

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 1                                                                                                

2000 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)

                                               

                                                           Vote Share                    Votes (mil.)                                             

                             Votes          Mix          Gore         Bush         Nader       Gore         Bush         Other       Margin

Big Cities                 9.4           9%           71%         26%         3%           6.7           2.5           0.3           4.24

Small Cities          21.0             20%         57%         40%         3%           11.9         8.4           0.6           3.56

Suburbs                     45.0         43%         47%         49%         4%           21.2         22.1         1.8           -0.90

Small Towns            5.2           5%           38%         59%         3%           2.0           3.1           0.2           -1.10

Rural Areas              24.1         23%         37%         59%         4%           8.9           14.2         1.0           -5.30

                                                                                                                                               

Total                    104.8          100%       48.4%      47.9%      3.7%        50.7         50.2         3.8           0.50

                                                                                                                                               

Urban                     30.4           29%         61%         36%         3%           18.6         10.8         0.9           7.81

Suburbs               45.0               43%         47%         49%         4%           21.2         22.1         1.8           -0.90

SmTwn/Rural      29.3              28%         37%         59%         4%           10.9         17.3         1.1           -6.40

                                                                                                                                               

Total                  104.8            100%       48.4%      47.9%      3.7%        50.7         50.2         3.8           0.50

                                                                                                                                               

____________________________________________________________________

 

                                                                                                                                               

Table 2                                                                                                

2004 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)                            

11/03 at 2:04pm

  

                                                 Vote Share                              Votes (mil.)                                             

                      Votes   Mix        Kerry       Bush         Other       Kerry       Bush         Other       Margin

Big City          15.9   13%        61%         39%         0%           9.7           6.2           0.0           3.5

Small City      22.0   18%         49%         49%         2%           10.8         10.8         0.4           0.0

Suburbs           55.0   45%         47%         52%         1%           25.9         28.6         0.6           -2.8

Small Town       9.8    8%         48%         50%         2%           4.7           4.9           0.2           -0.2

Rural Areas    19.6   16%         40%         59%         1%           7.8           11.5         0.2           -3.7

                                                                                                                                               

Total              122.3 100%      48.1%      50.7%      1.1%        58.9         62.0         1.4           -3.2

                                                                                                                                               

Urban               37.9    31%      54%         45%         1.2%        20.5         17.0         0.4           3.5

Suburbs          55.0       45%      47%         52%         1.0%        25.9         28.6         0.6           -2.8

Rural              29.4      24%      43%         56%         1.3%        12.5         16.4         0.4           -3.9

                                                                                                                                               

Total             122.3   100%     48.1%      50.7%      1.1%        58.9         62.0         1.4           -3.2

                                                                                                                                               

____________________________________________________________________

 

                                                                                                                                               

Table 3                                                                                                

Final NEP Vote share changes: 2000 to 2004

 

                                                          Vote Share                     Votes (mil.)                                             

                       Votes   Mix       Kerry       Bush         Other       Kerry       Bush         Other       Margin

Big City           6.5       4%       -10%        13%         -3%          3.0           3.7           -0.3          -0.7

Small City       1.1       -2%       -8%          9%           -1%          -1.2          2.4           -0.2          -3.6

Suburbs          10.0        2%       0%           3%           -3%          4.7           6.6           -1.3          -1.9

Small Town     4.5        3%       10%         -9%          -1%          2.7           1.8           0.0           0.9

Rural Areas   -4.5        -7%       3%           0%           -3%          -1.1          -2.7          -0.8          1.6

                                                                                                                                               

Change              17.6     0%      -5%          16%         -11%        8.2           11.8         -2.5          -3.7

                                                                                                                                               

Urban                 7.5     2%       -7%          9%           -2%          1.8           6.2           -0.5          -4.3

Suburbs           10.0    2%          0%           3%           -3%          4.7           6.6           -1.3          -1.9

SmTwn/Rural   0.0   -4%          5%           -3%          -2%          1.6           -0.9          -0.7          2.5

                                                                                                                                               

Change               17.6    0%      -2%          9%           -7%          8.2           11.8         -2.5          -3.7

                                                                                                                                               

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                                                               

 

Table 4                                                                                                

2004 NEP (11027 respondents)                                                                                                          

11/02 at 7:33pm                                                                                                          

 

5 Categories

                                                           Vote Share                                    Votes (mil.)                                             

                              Votes         Mix          Kerry       Bush         Other       Kerry       Bush         Other       Margin

Big City   15.9         13%         64%         35%         1%           10.2         5.6           0.2           4.6

Small City                22.0         18%         52%         46%         2%           11.4         10.1         0.4           1.3

Suburbs                     55.0         45%         49%         49%         2%           27.0         27.0         1.1           0.0

Small Town              9.8           8%           51%         47%         2%           5.0           4.6           0.2           0.4

Rural Areas              19.6         16%         42%         56%         2%           8.2           11.0         0.4           -2.7

                                                                                                                                               

Total                     122.3         100%       50.5%      47.6%      1.9%        61.8         58.2         2.3           3.6

 

 

3 Categories                                                                                                    

 

                          Votes             Mix          Kerry       Bush         Other       Kerry       Bush         Other       Margin

Urban                   37.9             31%         57%         41%         2%           21.6         15.7         0.6           5.9

Suburb                  55.0             45%         49%         49%         2%           27.0         27.0         1.1           0.0

Rural Areas       29.4                24%         45%         53%         2%           13.2         15.6         0.6           -2.3

                                                                                                                                               

Total                  122.3            100%       50.5%      47.6%      1.9%        61.8         58.2         2.3           3.6

 

 

                                                                 Sensitivity Analysis

 

                                                                 Kerry Urban Share                                                                 

          Rural              54%         55%         56%         57%         58%         59%         60%        

         Share                                      Kerry National Share 

                41%         48.6%      48.9%      49.3%      49.6%      49.9%      50.2%      50.5%     

                42%         48.9%      49.2%      49.5%      49.8%      50.1%      50.4%      50.7%     

                43%         49.1%      49.4%      49.7%      50.0%      50.4%      50.7%      51.0%     

                44%         49.4%      49.7%      50.0%      50.3%      50.6%      50.9%      51.2%     

                45%         49.6%      49.9%      50.2%      50.5%      50.8%      51.1%      51.5%     

                46%         49.8%      50.1%      50.5%      50.8%      51.1%      51.4%      51.7%     

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                                                               

     

Table 5                                                                                                

2004 NEP (adjusted)                                                                                                  

Size of Community                                                                                                       

 

Vote shares adjusted to match True Vote (Table 7)

125.74m total votes cast (Census)

 

                                                           Vote Share                                     Votes (mil.)                                            

                               Votes        Mix          Kerry       Bush         Other       Kerry       Bush         Other       Margin

Big City   16.35       13%         67%         32%         1%           10.95       5.23         0.16         5.72

Small City             22.63          18%         55%         44%         1%           12.45       9.96         0.23         2.49

Suburbs                     56.58       45%         51%         48%         1%           28.86       27.16       0.57         1.70

Small Town              10.06       8%           52%         47%         1%           5.23         4.73         0.10         0.50

Rural                        20.12       16%         43%         56%         1%           8.65         11.27       0.20         -2.62

                                                                                                                                               

Total                    125.74        100%       52.6%      46.4%      1%           66.14       58.34       1.26         7.80

                                                                                                                                               

Urban                      38.98        31%         60%         39%         1%           23.40       15.19       0.39         8.21

Suburbs                56.58            45%         51%         48%         1%           28.86       27.16       0.57         1.70

SmTwn/Rural      30.18            24%         46%         53%         1%           13.88       16.00       0.30         -2.11

   

Total                  125.74          100%       52.6%      46.4%      1.0%        66.14       58.34       1.26         7.80

   

 

                                 Sensitivity Analysis

 

                               Kerry share of Urban                                               

     Share     56%       58%         60%         62%         64%

     of Rural                 Kerry National Share 

      48%     51.8%    52.5%      53.1%      53.7%      54.3%

      47%     51.6%    52.2%      52.8%      53.5%      54.1%

      46%     51.4%    52.0%      52.6%      53.2%      53.8%

      45%     51.1%    51.7%      52.4%      53.0%      53.6%

      44%     50.9%    51.5%      52.1%      52.7%      53.4%

   

____________________________________________________________________

 

    

Table 6                                                                                                

Vote Share Summary

 

                2000 Final               2004 7:33pm           2004 Final               2004 True                               

                Gore         Bush         Kerry       Bush         Kerry       Bush         Kerry       Bush        

Urban       61%         36%         57%         41%         54%         45%         60%         39%        

Suburbs 47%             49%         49%         49%         47%         52%         51%         48%        

Rural        37%         59%         45%         53%         43%         56%         46%         53%        

  

Total       48.4%      47.9%      50.5%      47.6%      48.1%      50.7%      52.6%      46.4%     

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                                                               

 

Table 7                                                                                                

12:22am NEP True Vote                                                                                                         

Voted 2000

                                                                                   

Assumptions:                                                                                                   

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

Election 2000 voters:

95% Turnout in 2004

0.87% annual mortality                                                                                                

                               

                                                Vote Share                               Votes (mil.)                                             

                Votes       Mix          Kerry       Bush         Other       Kerry       Bush         Other      

DNV        27.02       21.5%      57%         41%         2%           15.40       11.08       0.54        

Gore         48.08       38.2%      91%         8%           1%           43.75       3.85         0.48        

Bush         47.56       37.8%      10%         90%         0%           4.76         42.80       0.00        

Other       3.08         2.5%        71%         21%         8%           2.19         0.65         0.25        

                                                                                                                                               

Total       125.74     100%       52.6%      46.4%      1.01%      66.10       58.38       1.27        

   

____________________________________________________________________

   

WPE (Within Precinct Error) by Size of Location

 

The largest discrepancies (WPE) were in the Suburbs (4.5m) and Cities (3.3m).

Deviations were calculated using

a) Final NEP (matched to the vote) and

b) Final NEP with WPE-adjusted location vote shares.

 

 

Location                  WPE

Size          Mix        Mean         Median   Abs            Precincts                                                                                                 

BigCity    13%         -7.9          -5.9          12.1         105                                                                                                         

Sm City    18%         -8.5          -7.7          14.3         236                                                                                                         

Suburb     45%          -8.1          -7.9          14.3         487                                                                                                         

Sm Town   8%         -4.9          -5             12.8         126                                                                                                         

Rural          16%       -3.6          -3.6          13.4         296                                                                                                         

 

Wtd Avg  100%     -7.17          -6.68        13.75       1250                                                                                                       

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                               

Final NEP: WPE-adjusted

(Census total votes cast)

                                                                Vote Share                                       Votes (mil)  

Location   WPE       Votes       Weight   Kerry    Bush   Other           Kerry   Bush    Other   Margin       

BigCity      -7.9%     16.35       13%         65.0%      35.0%      0%          10.6         5.7           0.0           4.9                          

SmCity    -8.5%       22.63       18%         53.3%      44.7%      2%          12.1         10.1         0.5           1.9                          

Suburbs   -8.1%     56.58           45%         51.0%      48.0%      1%          28.9         27.1         0.6           1.8                          

SmlTwn   -4.9%     10.06         8%           50.5%      47.5%      2%          5.1           4.8           0.2           0.3                          

Rural        -3.6%     20.12        16%         41.8%      57.2%      1%          8.4           11.5         0.2           -3.1                         

                                                                                                                                                                                               

Total       -7.17% 125.74       100%         51.7%      47.2%      1.1%        65.0         59.3         1.4           5.8                          

 

 

  

National Exit Poll

 

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/WPEPollVsVote_21912_image001.png

 

                                NEP - 7:33pm                                                                         NEP - Final

Region     Vote         Weight     Kerry       Bush         Other                       Weight     Kerry       Bush         Other

East         26.91       22%         58%         41%         1%                           22%         56%         43%         1%

Midwest   31.80       26%         50%         49%         1%                           26%         48%         51%         1%

South       37.91       31%         44%         54%         2%                           32%         42%         58%         0%

West        25.68       21%         53%         45%         2%                           20%         50%         49%         1%

                                                                                                                                                               

Vote share                100%       50.5%      48.0%      1.5%                        100%       48.2%      51.1%      0.7%

Votes (mil)               122.3       61.8         58.6         1.9                           122.3       59.0         62.5         0.8

 

 

Regional Aggregate Exit Poll Shares

(based on average state precinct WPE)

 

Region     Vote         Weight   Kerry         Bush   Other

East         27.2         22.2%      60.3%      39.0%   0.7%

Midwest   30.9         25.3%      51.4%      47.8%   0.8%

South       39.3         32.2%      44.9%      54.4%   0.7%

West        24.8         20.3%      54.2%      44.4%   1.4%

 

Vote Share               100%       51.8%      47.3%   0.9%

Votes (mil)             122.3      63.3          57.8      1.2

____________________________________________________________________

 

Comparative Analysis:

1250 precincts categorized by Location-size; average WPE

 

2pm Final NEP

Location-size WPE-adjusted vote shares

 

Location        Vote   Mix   WPE Kerry      Bush    Other Kerry Bush Other              Margin

Big City         15.9   13%   7.9    64.95%   35.05%   0%    10.3     5.6     0.0          4.6          

Small City    22.0     18%   8.5    53.25%   44.75%   2%    11.7     9.9     0.4          1.9          

Suburbs           55.0   45%   8.1    51.05%   47.95%   1%    28.1   26.4     0.6          1.7          

Small Town   9.8      8%    4.9    50.45%   47.55%   2%     4.9      4.7     0.2          0.3          

Rural             19.6    16%   3.6    41.80%   57.20%   1%     8.2    11.2     0.2          -3.0         

 

TOTAL        122.3   100%  7.1    51.7%    47.2%   1.1%  63.3   57.7    1.4          5.6            

____________________________________________________________________

 

Number of States where Exit Poll MoE was exceeded for Bush

(zero cluster effect)

 

Time Zone                Region

East          14 of 21    East            8 of 12

Central     7 of 16    Midwest     6 of 12

Mountain   5 of 8     South            7 of 13

Pacific        3 of 5     West            8 of 13

 

Vote   Popular Vote (in thousands)

EV     Regional Electoral vote

KEV   Kerry Electoral vote

KE      Kerry Exit Poll Vote

KV     Kerry Recorded Vote

 

KEP   Kerry Exit Poll share

KVP   Kerry Recorded share

 

WPE   Within Precinct Error 

 

 

Region       EV         Vote    Mix       WPE        KE       KV        KEP        KVP   KEV             

 

East             122      27,177   22.2%   9.21%   16,376   15,124   60.3%   55.7%   117           

Midwest      124       30,940   25.3%   5.96%   15,889   14,966   51.4%   48.4%    85            

South           168      39,324   32.2%   5.66%   17,662   16,550   44.9%   42.1%    27            

West            124      24,844   20.3%   8.18%   13,461   12,445   54.2%   50.1%    96            

 

Recorded   538    122,284    100%   7.04%   63,388    59,085   51.8%   48.3%  325

 Total Cast          125,740                              65,893                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                               

_____________________________________________________________________

 

State Exit Poll shares

(based on average WPE)

 

KEV  Kerry Electoral vote (based on KE)

Vote  Total state recorded vote

 

KE   Kerry Exit Poll Share

KV   Kerry Recorded Share

 

BE   Bush Exit Poll Share

BV   Bush Recorded Share

 

Diff      =   KE - KV

WPE   =   Within Precinct Error = (KE-KV)-(BE-BV)

MoE   =    State Exit Poll Margin of Error

DM    =    Diff/Moe

 

 

Probability of State Exit Poll Discrepancy

 

DM     Prob

0.0      50% 

0.5      14%

0.8      6%

1.0      2.50%

1.5      0.16%

1.7      0.03%

 

*  Diff   > 1.0* MoE (less than 2.50% probability)

** Diff  > 1.5* MoE (less than 0.16% probability)

 

 

State        KEV         Vote         WPE        KE           KV           BE           BV           Diff          MoE       Diff/MoE

Total       325          122.3       7.09         51.81       48.27       47.19       50.73       2.92         2.71         1.08

 

EAST

CT**       7              1,578       15.7         62.2         54.3         36.1         43.9         7.85         3.27         2.40

DC           3              378          3.4           90.9         89.2         37.8         9.3           1.70         1.92         0.88

DE**       3              226          15.9         61.3         53.3         37.8         45.8         7.95         3.48         2.28

MA          12            2,912       5.8           64.8         61.9         33.9         36.8         2.90         3.10         0.93

MD*        10            2,386       8.1           60.0         55.9         38.9         42.9         4.05         3.07         1.32

 

ME          4              741          3.8           55.5         53.6         42.7         44.6         1.90         2.20         0.86

NH**       4              678          13.6         57.0         50.2         42.1         48.9         6.80         2.27         3.00

NJ**        15            3,611       9.7           57.8         52.9         41.4         46.2         4.85         2.49         1.94

NY**       31            7,391       11.4         64.1         58.4         34.4         40.1         5.70         2.47         2.31

PA**       21            5,770       8.8           55.3         50.9         44.0         48.4         4.40         2.22         1.98

 

RI            4              437          4.7           61.8         59.4         36.3         38.7         2.35         3.30         0.71

VT**       3              312          15.0         66.4         58.9         31.3         38.8         7.50         3.56         2.11

WV*                        756          (5.8)        40.3         43.2         59.0         56.1         -2.90        2.35         -1.23

 

MIDWEST

IA            7              1,507       3.0           50.7         49.2         48.4         49.9         1.50         1.96         0.77

IL            21            5,276       4.4           57.0         54.8         42.3         44.5         2.20         2.60         0.85

IN                            2,468       1.5           40.0         39.3         59.2         59.9         0.75         3.17         0.24

KS                            1,187       1.7           37.5         36.6         61.2         62.0         0.85         3.65         0.23

MI**       17            4,839       6.3           54.4         51.2         44.7         47.8         3.15         1.98         1.59

 

MN**      10            2,829       9.3           55.7         51.1         43.0         47.6         4.65         2.09         2.22

MO*                        2,731       5.8           49.0         46.1         50.4         53.3         2.90         2.11         1.38

ND                           313          (5.2)        32.9         35.5         65.5         62.9         -2.60        3.63         -0.72

NE*                         778          8.1           36.7         32.7         61.8         65.9         4.05         3.37         1.20

OH**       20            5,626       10.9         54.2         48.7         45.4         50.8         5.45         2.21         2.47

 

SD                            388          (4.2)        36.3         38.4         62.0         59.9         -2.10        2.45         -0.86

WI*         10            2,997       4.7           52.0         49.7         47.0         49.3         2.35         2.08         1.13

 

SOUTH

AL**                       1,883       11.3         42.5         36.8         56.8         62.5         5.65         3.57         1.58

AR                           2,021       0.5           44.8         44.5         54.1         54.3         0.25         2.61         0.10

FL**        27            7,610       7.6           50.9         47.1         48.3         52.1         3.80         1.84         2.07

GA                           3,301       2.2           42.5         41.4         56.9         58.0         1.10         2.48         0.44

KY                           1,796       (0.1)        39.6         39.7         59.6         59.6         -0.05        3.00         -0.02

 

LA                           1,943       3.8           44.1         42.2         54.8         56.7         1.90         2.38         0.80

MS**                       1,139       11.3         45.8         40.2         53.4         59.0         5.65         3.44         1.64

NC**                       3,501       11.3         49.2         43.6         50.4         56.0         5.65         2.10         2.69

OK                           1,464       (1.9)        33.5         34.4         66.5         65.6         -0.95        2.38         -0.40

SC**                        1,618       10.0         45.9         40.9         53.0         58.0         5.00         2.34         2.13

 

TN                           2,437       0.5           42.8         42.5         56.5         56.8         0.25         2.29         0.11

TX*                         7,411       4.8           40.6         38.2         58.7         61.1         2.40         2.31         1.04

VA**                       3,199       7.9           49.4         45.5         49.7         53.7         3.95         2.59         1.53

 

WEST

AK**                       313          9.6           40.3         35.5         56.3         61.1         4.80         3.18         1.51

AZ*                         1,051       4.6           46.7         44.4         52.6         54.9         2.30         2.27         1.01

CA**       55            12,420     10.9         59.8         54.3         38.9         44.4         5.45         2.22         2.45

CO**       9              2,130       6.1           50.1         47.0         48.6         51.7         3.05         1.95         1.56

HI            4              429          4.7           56.4         54.0         42.9         45.3         2.35         4.38         0.54

 

ID                            598          1.0           30.8         30.3         67.9         68.4         0.50         3.91         0.13

MT                          451          (1.8)        37.7         38.6         60.0         59.1         -0.90        3.78         -0.24

NM**      5              756          7.8           52.9         49.0         45.9         49.8         3.90         2.22         1.76

NV**       5              830          10.1         52.9         47.9         45.4         50.5         5.05         2.13         2.37

OR           7              1,837       0.0           51.3         51.3         47.2         47.2         0.00         3.00         0.00

 

UT*                         928          6.4           29.2         26.0         68.3         71.5         3.20         3.18         1.01

WA**      11            2,859       8.4           57.0         52.8         41.4         45.6         4.20         2.12         1.98

WY                          243          4.3           31.2         29.1         66.7         68.9         2.15         3.50         0.61