The Final National Exit Poll: Always Adjusted to Match the Recorded
Vote
Feb.
7, 2009
The distinction
between unadjusted and adjusted Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is the cause of
much confusion and misinformation. The Final “contaminates” raw, unadjusted
polling data by forcing a match to the recorded vote. If
the vote count is fraudulent, simple logic dictates that the Final Exit Poll
does not provide the True Vote, but rather a corrupt one. Furthermore, all demographic category
crosstabs would also need to be adjusted and would result in misleading
statistics. This analysis will prove that in each of the 2004, 2006, 2008
elections, the Final NEP used an impossible returning voter mix to match the
recorded vote. Therefore, the recorded vote also had to be impossible. It
overstated the Republican vote share (and understated the Democratic share) by
3-4% in each election.
Media pundits (even
those on the left) always make the same claim: that the early exit polls are
wrong since they don’t match the recorded vote. But they don’t even mention the
possibility that Election Fraud may be the reason for the discrepancies. They never considered the possibility that
the recorded vote may have been miscounted and therefore the preliminary exit
polls were essentially correct. They assumed the count was accurate. Pundits
who should know better then catapulted the propaganda by stating that the final
exit poll confirmed the vote count. In
so doing, they continue to promote the myth that the elections are fraud-free.
And they have done so in every election since 2004.
They dismiss the accuracy of the early exit polls, claiming they were not designed to predict the True Vote but just to provide a demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics. They never did the analysis that would have proved that the returning voter weights Final NEP were impossible. If they had, they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the reported vote counts were impossible (view the spreadsheet analysis below).
It’s standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to
force the final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote - even
if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. The procedure
assumes a fraud-free election – not exactly a reality-based assumption.
Apart from the
Final National Exit Poll, there is a mountain of documented evidence to suggest
that the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. Since the final state
and national exit polls were forced to match the official results, a serious
analyst would focus on the changes in vote shares and weights from the
unadjusted, “pristine” exit polls that were required. But serious analysts of
election fraud are still maligned by the mainstream media and others who
frequent election forums with an obvious agenda: to hide the truth about election
fraud from the public.
2008
The Final 2008
National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote: Obama by
69.4-59.9 million (52.9-45.6%). It indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters
comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37 million voters in 2008. Bush won by
62.0-59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died,
therefore at most 59.0m Bush voters returned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did
not vote (95% turnout), there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than
could have voted. The returning voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%.
But the actual recorded vote share was Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%.
The Final also indicates
that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate.
Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. How could there have been 11.7 million more returning Bush
voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by just 3.0 million votes. One would
expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for Obama than Bush
voters for McCain.
If the 2004 unadjusted
state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m). Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m
Bush voters were alive in 2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final
NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.
The Final also indicated
that third-party 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another
impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the
total).
Final 2008 National Exit Poll
Implied 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.3 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.3 49.6 0.6
4.6% Other 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
114.3 Total 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Since the impossible
Final was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote must be
impossible.
The Election Calculator
used Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible
NEP return voter mix. The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to
determine the returning voter mix (Bush 50.73-48.27%). Obama won this
(unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his
recorded margin. The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll
aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%). Obama
won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over
his recorded margin.
Scenario 1: 2004 returning
voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote adjusted for
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout;
3.0% uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 17.6m:
75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.8m:
72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.
Recorded 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.4
48.27% Kerry 55.72 41.1% 89% 9% 2% 49.6 5.0 1.1
50.73% Bush 56.86 42.0% 17% 82% 1% 9.7 46.6 0.6
1.00% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.1
Total 135.43 100.0% 55.69% 42.66% 1.65% 75.43 57.77 2.23
Scenario 2: 2004 returning
voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares adjusted for
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95%
turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
a)
Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%)
assuming no uncounted votes.
2004 Unadj. 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Exit Poll DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.43
52.0% Kerry 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2% 52.6 5.3 1.18
47.0% Bush 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1% 9.1 43.8 0.53
1.0% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.11
Total 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67% 77.88 55.28 2.27
2004
The 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” category indicated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 41% of the 2004 electorate and Gore voters 39%. Kerry was a 51-48% winner. But in the Final NEP, the weights were adjusted to 43% and 37% – to match the Bush 51-48% margin. The 4% increase in the spread between Gore and Bush voters was a major component of the reversal.
John Kerry held a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed. But of couurse Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents). The Final was posted the day after the election and was forced to match the Recorded Vote count by using impossible weights and implausible vote shares.
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix
in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The Bush 43% share was mathematically
and physically impossible since it meant that Bush had 52.6 million votes in
2000; he had just 50.5 million. Approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only
48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. Therefore, the Final overstated the
number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.
The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.22% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am (Composite) vote shares were used rather than the Final NEP shares. The reason: the Final NEP Bush vote shares were inflated, along with the 2000 Bush returning voter mix, to force a match to the recorded vote. The difference between the calculated True and recorded vote margin is 13 million – the same as in 2008.
2004 Final National Exit Poll
13660 Respondents 11/03 2:05pm 2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29 Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50 Preliminary National Exit Poll13047 Respondents 11/03 12:22am 2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29 Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19 Election Calculator True Vote Model2000 Voted Recd Unctd Cast Died AliveGore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02 Total 105.42 5.38 110.8 5.41 105.39 2004 Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush OtherDNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19% Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38% 66.94 57.07 1.74
2006
Midterms
At 7pm, the Bush/Kerry NEP returning voter mix was 47/45%. It was changed to 49/43% in the Final. Once again, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by increasing the spread 4%! This had a major effect in reducing the Democratic margin from 55-43% at 7pm to 52-46% in the Final.
The Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
The 2004 State Exit Poll
Aggregate Timeline
Edison-Mitofsky provided four aggregate state exit poll measures.
Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:
1) WPE 51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)
2) GEO 51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)
3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)
4) Final 48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)
WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) method. It is based on the average discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all precincts polled in the state. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote?
Edison-Mitofsky
Exit Poll Estimates
RECORDED VOTE WPE
(WITHIN PRECINCT ERROR) BEST
GEO COMPOSITE 12:40am
|
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
EV |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
WPE |
EV |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
Error |
EV |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
Error |
EV |
|
|
|
Total |
48.27 |
50.73 |
(2.46) |
251 |
|
51.84 |
47.18 |
4.7
|
7.11 |
324 |
|
51.04 |
48.49 |
2.56
|
5.01 |
301 |
|
50.26 |
49.11 |
1.15 |
3.60 |
288 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AL |
36.8 |
62.5 |
(25.6) |
|
|
42.5 |
56.8 |
(14.3) |
11.3
|
|
|
42.0 |
57.5 |
(15.5) |
10.1
|
|
|
40.6 |
58.7 |
(18.1) |
7.5
|
|
|
|
|
AK |
35.5 |
61.1 |
(25.5) |
|
|
40.3 |
56.3 |
(15.9) |
9.6
|
|
|
41.2 |
57.4 |
(16.2) |
9.3
|
|
|
39.0 |
58.8 |
(19.8) |
5.7
|
|
|
|
|
AZ |
44.4 |
54.9 |
(10.5) |
|
|
46.7 |
52.6 |
(5.9) |
4.6
|
|
|
46.5 |
53.5 |
(7.0) |
3.5
|
|
|
46.8 |
53.2 |
(6.4) |
4.1
|
|
|
|
|
AR |
44.5 |
54.3 |
(9.8) |
|
|
44.8 |
54.1 |
(9.3) |
0.5
|
|
|
46.8 |
52.4 |
(5.6) |
4.2
|
|
|
47.0 |
52.2 |
(5.2) |
4.6
|
|
|
|
|
CA |
54.3 |
44.4 |
9.9
|
55 |
|
59.8 |
38.9 |
20.8
|
10.9
|
55 |
|
56.5 |
43.5 |
13.0
|
3.1
|
55 |
|
56.5 |
43.5 |
13.0
|
3.1
|
55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
47.0 |
51.7 |
(4.7) |
|
|
50.1 |
48.6 |
1.4
|
6.1
|
9 |
|
47.0 |
52.5 |
(5.5) |
(0.8) |
|
|
47.7 |
51.4 |
(3.7) |
1.0
|
|
|
|
|
CT |
54.3 |
43.9 |
10.4
|
7 |
|
62.2 |
36.1 |
26.1
|
15.7
|
7 |
|
59.3 |
39.6 |
19.7
|
9.3
|
7 |
|
58.1 |
40.5 |
17.6
|
7.2
|
7 |
|
|
|
DE |
53.3 |
45.8 |
7.6
|
3 |
|
61.3 |
37.8 |
23.5
|
15.9
|
3 |
|
61.5 |
37.9 |
23.6
|
16.0
|
3 |
|
57.7 |
41.2 |
16.5
|
8.9
|
3 |
|
|
|
DC |
89.2 |
9.3 |
79.8
|
3 |
|
90.9 |
7.6 |
83.2
|
3.4
|
3 |
|
91.1 |
8.1 |
83.0
|
3.2
|
3 |
|
90.2 |
8.4 |
81.8
|
2.0
|
3 |
|
|
|
FL |
47.1 |
52.1 |
(5.0) |
|
|
50.9 |
48.3 |
2.6
|
7.6
|
27 |
|
49.2 |
50.3 |
(1.1) |
3.9
|
|
|
49.3 |
50.1 |
(0.8) |
4.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
41.4 |
58.0 |
(16.6) |
|
|
42.5 |
56.9 |
(14.4) |
2.2
|
|
|
43.5 |
56.5 |
(13.0) |
3.6
|
|
|
43.0 |
57.1 |
(14.1) |
2.5
|
|
|
|
|
HI |
54.0 |
45.3 |
8.7
|
4 |
|
56.4 |
42.9 |
13.4
|
4.7
|
4 |
|
56.5 |
43.4 |
13.1
|
4.4
|
4 |
|
53.6 |
46.4 |
7.2
|
(1.5) |
4 |
|
|
|
ID |
30.3 |
68.4 |
(38.1) |
|
|
30.8 |
67.9 |
(37.1) |
1.0
|
|
|
30.9 |
69.1 |
(38.2) |
(0.1) |
|
|
31.6 |
68.3 |
(36.7) |
1.4
|
|
|
|
|
IL |
54.8 |
44.5 |
10.3
|
21 |
|
57.0 |
42.3 |
14.7
|
4.4
|
21 |
|
57.5 |
42.6 |
14.9
|
4.6
|
21 |
|
57.0 |
42.9 |
14.1
|
3.8
|
21 |
|
|
|
IN |
39.3 |
59.9 |
(20.7) |
|
|
40.0 |
59.2 |
(19.2) |
1.5
|
|
|
40.5 |
59.6 |
(19.1) |
1.6
|
|
|
41.3 |
58.8 |
(17.5) |
3.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
49.2 |
49.9 |
(0.7) |
|
|
50.7 |
48.4 |
2.3
|
3.0
|
7 |
|
50.0 |
49.0 |
1.0
|
1.7
|
7 |
|
50.0 |
49.0 |
1.0
|
1.7
|
7 |
|
|
|
KS |
36.6 |
62.0 |
(25.4) |
|
|
37.5 |
61.2 |
(23.7) |
1.7
|
|
|
36.6 |
62.8 |
(26.2) |
(0.8) |
|
|
34.4 |
64.6 |
(30.2) |
(4.8) |
|
|
|
|
KY |
39.7 |
59.6 |
(19.9) |
|
|
39.6 |
59.6 |
(20.0) |
(0.1) |
|
|
40.6 |
58.6 |
(18.0) |
1.9
|
|
|
40.9 |
58.3 |
(17.4) |
2.5
|
|
|
|
|
LA |
42.2 |
56.7 |
(14.5) |
|
|
44.1 |
54.8 |
(10.7) |
3.8
|
|
|
43.2 |
56.3 |
(13.1) |
1.4
|
|
|
44.3 |
54.8 |
(10.5) |
4.0
|
|
|
|
|
ME |
53.6 |
44.6 |
9.0
|
4 |
|
55.5 |
42.7 |
12.8
|
3.8
|
4 |
|
54.3 |
44.6 |
9.7
|
0.7
|
4 |
|
53.9 |
44.4 |
9.5
|
0.5
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
55.9 |
42.9 |
13.0
|
10 |
|
60.0 |
38.9 |
21.1
|
8.1
|
10 |
|
59.4 |
39.7 |
19.7
|
6.7
|
10 |
|
56.6 |
42.5 |
14.1
|
1.1
|
10 |
|
|
|
MA |
61.9 |
36.8 |
25.2
|
12 |
|
64.8 |
33.9 |
31.0
|
5.8
|
12 |
|
66.3 |
33.6 |
32.7
|
7.5
|
12 |
|
65.7 |
34.2 |
31.5
|
6.3
|
12 |
|
|
|
MI |
51.2 |
47.8 |
3.4
|
17 |
|
54.4 |
44.7 |
9.7
|
6.3
|
17 |
|
51.8 |
47.3 |
4.5
|
1.1
|
17 |
|
51.9 |
47.1 |
4.8
|
1.4
|
17 |
|
|
|
MN |
51.1 |
47.6 |
3.5
|
9 |
|
55.7 |
43.0 |
12.8
|
9.3
|
9 |
|
56.7 |
42.4 |
14.3
|
10.8
|
9 |
|
53.7 |
44.9 |
8.8
|
5.3
|
9 |
|
|
|
MS |
40.2 |
59.0 |
(18.9) |
|
|
45.8 |
53.4 |
(7.6) |
11.3
|
|
|
46.2 |
53.2 |
(7.0) |
11.9
|
|
|
43.4 |
56.0 |
(12.6) |
6.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
46.1 |
53.3 |
(7.2) |
|
|
49.0 |
50.4 |
(1.4) |
5.8
|
|
|
47.8 |
52.2 |
(4.4) |
2.8
|
|
|
47.8 |
52.1 |
(4.3) |
2.9
|
|
|
|
|
MT |
38.6 |
59.1 |
(20.5) |
|
|
37.7 |
60.0 |
(22.3) |
(1.8) |
|
|
37.8 |
59.9 |
(22.1) |
(1.6) |
|
|
37.2 |
60.0 |
(22.8) |
(2.3) |
|
|
|
|
NE |
32.7 |
65.9 |
(33.2) |
|
|
36.7 |
61.8 |
(25.1) |
8.1
|
|
|
37.5 |
61.7 |
(24.2) |
9.0
|
|
|
36.1 |
62.6 |
(26.5) |
6.7
|
|
|
|
|
NV |
47.9 |
50.5 |
(2.6) |
|
|
52.9 |
45.4 |
7.5
|
10.1
|
5 |
|
49.3 |
47.9 |
1.4
|
4.0
|
5 |
|
48.9 |
48.3 |
0.6
|
3.2
|
5 |
|
|
|
NH |
50.2 |
48.9 |
1.4
|
4 |
|
57.0 |
42.1 |
15.0
|
13.6
|
4 |
|
57.1 |
42.1 |
15.0
|
13.6
|
4 |
|
55.1 |
43.9 |
11.2
|
9.8
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
52.9 |
46.2 |
6.7
|
15 |
|
57.8 |
41.4 |
16.4
|
9.7
|
15 |
|
58.4 |
40.2 |
18.2
|
11.5
|
15 |
|
55.3 |
42.8 |
12.5
|
5.8
|
15 |
|
|
|
NM |
49.0 |
49.8 |
(0.8) |
|
|
52.9 |
45.9 |
7.0
|
7.8
|
5 |
|
51.7 |
47.5 |
4.2
|
5.0
|
5 |
|
50.8 |
48.0 |
2.8
|
3.6
|
5 |
|
|
|
NY |
58.4 |
40.1 |
18.3
|
31 |
|
64.1 |
34.4 |
29.7
|
11.4
|
31 |
|
65.1 |
33.8 |
31.3
|
13.0
|
31 |
|
63.1 |
35.5 |
27.6
|
9.3
|
31 |
|
|
|
NC |
43.6 |
56.0 |
(12.4) |
|
|
49.2 |
50.4 |
(1.1) |
11.3
|
|
|
48.2 |
51.8 |
(3.6) |
8.8
|
|
|
48.1 |
51.9 |
(3.8) |
8.6
|
|
|
|
|
ND |
35.5 |
62.9 |
(27.4) |
|