The Final National Exit Poll: Always Adjusted to Match the Recorded Vote

 

TruthIsAll

 

Feb. 7, 2009

 

The distinction between unadjusted and adjusted Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is the cause of much confusion and misinformation. The Final “contaminates” raw, unadjusted polling data by forcing a match to the recorded vote. If the vote count is fraudulent, simple logic dictates that the Final Exit Poll does not provide the True Vote, but rather a corrupt one.  Furthermore, all demographic category crosstabs would also need to be adjusted and would result in misleading statistics. This analysis will prove that in each of the 2004, 2006, 2008 elections, the Final NEP used an impossible returning voter mix to match the recorded vote. Therefore, the recorded vote also had to be impossible. It overstated the Republican vote share (and understated the Democratic share) by 3-4% in each election.

 

Media pundits (even those on the left) always make the same claim: that the early exit polls are wrong since they don’t match the recorded vote. But they don’t even mention the possibility that Election Fraud may be the reason for the discrepancies.  They never considered the possibility that the recorded vote may have been miscounted and therefore the preliminary exit polls were essentially correct. They assumed the count was accurate. Pundits who should know better then catapulted the propaganda by stating that the final exit poll confirmed the vote count.  In so doing, they continue to promote the myth that the elections are fraud-free. And they have done so in every election since 2004.

 

They dismiss the accuracy of the early exit polls, claiming they were not designed to predict the True Vote but just to provide a demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics. They never did the analysis that would have proved that the returning voter weights Final NEP were impossible.  If they had, they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the reported vote counts were impossible (view the spreadsheet analysis below).

 

It’s standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote - even if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. The procedure assumes a fraud-free election – not exactly a reality-based assumption.

 

Apart from the Final National Exit Poll, there is a mountain of documented evidence to suggest that the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. Since the final state and national exit polls were forced to match the official results, a serious analyst would focus on the changes in vote shares and weights from the unadjusted, “pristine” exit polls that were required. But serious analysts of election fraud are still maligned by the mainstream media and others who frequent election forums with an obvious agenda: to hide the truth about election fraud from the public.


2008

 

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote: Obama by 69.4-59.9 million (52.9-45.6%). It indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37 million voters in 2008. Bush won by 62.0-59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died, therefore at most 59.0m Bush voters returned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did not vote (95% turnout), there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted. The returning voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%. But the actual recorded vote share was Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%.

 

The Final also indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004.   How could there have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by just 3.0 million votes. One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain. 

 

If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m).  Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in 2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.

 

The Final also indicated that third-party 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the total).

 

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

Implied               2004                     Total                  Mix                    Obama                McCain            Other                 Obama             McCain         Other

Vote                  DNV                     17.08                13%                  71%                    27%                 2%                    12.1                 4.6                     0.3

42.5%                Kerry                    48.61                37%                  89%                    9%                   2%                    43.3                 4.4                     1.0

52.9%                Bush                    60.43                46%                  17%                    82%                 1%                    10.3                 49.6                   0.6

4.6%                  Other                    5.25                  4%                    66%                    24%                 10%                  3.5                   1.3                     0.5

 

114.3                 Total                     131.37              100%                52.62%               45.52%            1.86%               69.13               59.80                 2.44

 

Since the impossible Final was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote must be impossible.

 

The Election Calculator used  Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP return voter mix. The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter mix (Bush 50.73-48.27%). Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded margin. The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).  Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over his recorded margin.

 

Scenario 1:  2004 returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote adjusted for

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).

b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

Recorded          2004                    Total                 Mix                   Obama                McCain            Other                Obama             McCain              Other

Vote                  DNV                     21.71                16.0%              71%                    27%                2%                    15.4                 5.9                    0.4

48.27%             Kerry                   55.72                41.1%              89%                    9%                  2%                    49.6                 5.0                    1.1

50.73%             Bush                    56.86                42.0%              17%                    82%                1%                    9.7                   46.6                  0.6

1.00%               Other                   1.14                  0.8%                66%                    24%                10%                  0.8                   0.3                    0.1

 

                          Total                     135.43              100.0%            55.69%               42.66%           1.65%               75.43               57.77                2.23

 

Scenario 2:  2004 returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares adjusted for

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.

b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

2004 Unadj.       2004                    Total                 Mix                   Obama                McCain            Other                Obama             McCain              Other

Exit Poll              DNV                     21.71                16.0%              71%                    27%                2%                    15.4                 5.9                    0.43

52.0%               Kerry                   59.13                43.7%              89%                    9%                  2%                    52.6                 5.3                    1.18

47.0%               Bush                    53.44                39.5%              17%                    82%                1%                    9.1                   43.8                  0.53

1.0%                 Other                   1.14                  0.8%                66%                    24%                10%                  0.8                   0.3                    0.11

 

                          Total                     135.43              100%               57.51%               40.82%           1.67%               77.88               55.28                2.27


 

2004

 

The 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” category indicated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 41% of the 2004 electorate and Gore voters 39%. Kerry was a 51-48% winner. But in the Final NEP, the weights were adjusted to 43% and 37% – to match the Bush 51-48% margin.  The 4% increase in the spread between Gore and Bush voters was a major component of the reversal.

 

John Kerry held a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed.  But of couurse Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents).  The Final was posted the day after the election and was forced to match the Recorded Vote count by using impossible weights and implausible vote shares.

 

The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The Bush 43% share was mathematically and physically impossible since it meant that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000; he had just 50.5 million. Approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. Therefore, the Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.

 

The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m.  A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.22% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am  (Composite) vote shares were used rather than the Final NEP shares. The reason:  the Final NEP Bush vote shares were inflated, along with the 2000 Bush returning voter mix, to force a match to the recorded vote. The difference between the calculated True and recorded vote margin is 13 million – the same as in 2008.

 

2004 Final National Exit Poll

 13660 Respondents                                                              
11/03 2:05pm                                                 
2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.79    17%      54%      45%      1%       11.22    9.35     0.21
Gore     45.24    37%      90%      10%      0%       40.72    4.52     0.00
Bush     52.58    43%      9%       91%      0%       4.73     47.84    0.00
Other    3.67     3%       71%      21%      8%       2.60     0.77     0.29
                                                                      
Total    122.3    100%     48.48%   51.11%   0.41%    59.28    62.49    0.50
 
Preliminary National Exit Poll
13047 Respondents                                                     
11/03 12:22am                                                                  
2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.79    17%      57%      41%      2%       11.85    8.52     0.42
Gore     47.69    39%      91%      8%       1%       43.39    3.81     0.48
Bush     50.13    41%      10%      90%      0%       5.01     45.12    0.00
Other    3.67     3%       71%      21%      8%       2.60     0.77     0.29
                                                                      
Total    122.3    100%     51.41%   47.62%   0.97%    62.86    58.22    1.19
 
Election Calculator True Vote Model
2000                                
Voted    Recd     Unctd    Cast     Died    Alive
Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.72     52.32
Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.48     49.06
Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02
                                            
Total    105.42   5.38     110.8    5.41     105.39
                                            
2004      Turnout    Voted   Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other
DNV      -        25.61    20.4%    57%      41%      2%
Gore     95%      49.70    39.5%    91%      8%       1%
Bush     95%      46.60    37.1%    10%      90%      0%
Other    95%      3.82     3.0%     64%      17%      19%
                                                    
Total   100.1     125.7    100%    53.23%   45.39%   1.38%
                                    66.94    57.07    1.74 
 

2006 Midterms

 

At 7pm, the Bush/Kerry NEP returning voter mix was 47/45%. It was changed to 49/43% in the Final. Once again, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by increasing the spread 4%! This had a major effect in reducing the Democratic margin from 55-43% at 7pm to 52-46% in the Final.

 

The Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.

 

National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
 
        --------- 7:07pm -----------   -------------- Final --------   ------ True Generic Vote -----
        MIX    Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep     Other
Kerry   45%     93%     6%      1%      43%     92%     7%      1%      49%     93%     6%     1%
Bush    47%     17%     82%     1%      49%     15%     83%     2%      46%     17%     82%    1%
Other   4%      67%     23%     10%     4%      66%     23%     11%     1%      67%     23%    10%
DNV     4%      67%     30%     3%      4%      66%     32%     2%      4%      67%     30%    3%
 
TOTAL   100%   55.2%   43.4%   1.4%    100%    52.2%   45.9%   1.9%    100%    56.7%   42.1%    1.2%
 

 

The 2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate Timeline

 

Edison-Mitofsky provided four aggregate state exit poll measures.

Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:

1) WPE          51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)

2) GEO          51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)

3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)

4) Final          48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)

 

WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) method.  It is based on the average discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all precincts polled in the state. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote?

 

                                                                                                                                          

                                             Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates                                                                         

                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                          

             RECORDED VOTE            WPE (WITHIN PRECINCT ERROR)                 BEST GEO                     COMPOSITE 12:40am                                                                                  

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

WPE

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

EV

 

Kerry

Bush

Margin

Error

EV

 

 

Total

48.27

50.73

(2.46)

251

 

51.84

47.18

4.7

7.11

324

 

51.04

48.49

2.56

5.01

301

 

50.26

49.11

1.15

3.60

288

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

36.8

62.5

(25.6)

 

 

42.5

56.8

(14.3)

11.3

 

 

42.0

57.5

(15.5)

10.1

 

 

40.6

58.7

(18.1)

7.5

 

 

 

AK

35.5

61.1

(25.5)

 

 

40.3

56.3

(15.9)

9.6

 

 

41.2

57.4

(16.2)

9.3

 

 

39.0

58.8

(19.8)

5.7

 

 

 

AZ

44.4

54.9

(10.5)

 

 

46.7

52.6

(5.9)

4.6

 

 

46.5

53.5

(7.0)

3.5

 

 

46.8

53.2

(6.4)

4.1

 

 

 

AR

44.5

54.3

(9.8)

 

 

44.8

54.1

(9.3)

0.5

 

 

46.8

52.4

(5.6)

4.2

 

 

47.0

52.2

(5.2)

4.6

 

 

 

CA

54.3

44.4

9.9

55

 

59.8

38.9

20.8

10.9

55

 

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

55

 

56.5

43.5

13.0

3.1

55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

47.0

51.7

(4.7)

 

 

50.1

48.6

1.4

6.1

9

 

47.0

52.5

(5.5)

(0.8)

 

 

47.7

51.4

(3.7)

1.0

 

 

 

CT

54.3

43.9

10.4

7

 

62.2

36.1

26.1

15.7

7

 

59.3

39.6

19.7

9.3

7

 

58.1

40.5

17.6

7.2

7

 

 

DE

53.3

45.8

7.6

3

 

61.3

37.8

23.5

15.9

3

 

61.5

37.9

23.6

16.0

3

 

57.7

41.2

16.5

8.9

3

 

 

DC

89.2

9.3

79.8

3

 

90.9

7.6

83.2

3.4

3

 

91.1

8.1

83.0

3.2

3

 

90.2

8.4

81.8

2.0

3

 

 

FL

47.1

52.1

(5.0)

 

 

50.9

48.3

2.6

7.6

27

 

49.2

50.3

(1.1)

3.9

 

 

49.3

50.1

(0.8)

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

41.4

58.0

(16.6)

 

 

42.5

56.9

(14.4)

2.2

 

 

43.5

56.5

(13.0)

3.6

 

 

43.0

57.1

(14.1)

2.5

 

 

 

HI

54.0

45.3

8.7

4

 

56.4

42.9

13.4

4.7

4

 

56.5

43.4

13.1

4.4

4

 

53.6

46.4

7.2

(1.5)

4

 

 

ID

30.3

68.4

(38.1)

 

 

30.8

67.9

(37.1)

1.0

 

 

30.9

69.1

(38.2)

(0.1)

 

 

31.6

68.3

(36.7)

1.4

 

 

 

IL

54.8

44.5

10.3

21

 

57.0

42.3

14.7

4.4

21

 

57.5

42.6

14.9

4.6

21

 

57.0

42.9

14.1

3.8

21

 

 

IN

39.3

59.9

(20.7)

 

 

40.0

59.2

(19.2)

1.5

 

 

40.5

59.6

(19.1)

1.6

 

 

41.3

58.8

(17.5)

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

49.2

49.9

(0.7)

 

 

50.7

48.4

2.3

3.0

7

 

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

7

 

50.0

49.0

1.0

1.7

7

 

 

KS

36.6

62.0

(25.4)

 

 

37.5

61.2

(23.7)

1.7

 

 

36.6

62.8

(26.2)

(0.8)

 

 

34.4

64.6

(30.2)

(4.8)

 

 

 

KY

39.7

59.6

(19.9)

 

 

39.6

59.6

(20.0)

(0.1)

 

 

40.6

58.6

(18.0)

1.9

 

 

40.9

58.3

(17.4)

2.5

 

 

 

LA

42.2

56.7

(14.5)

 

 

44.1

54.8

(10.7)

3.8

 

 

43.2

56.3

(13.1)

1.4

 

 

44.3

54.8

(10.5)

4.0

 

 

 

ME

53.6

44.6

9.0

4

 

55.5

42.7

12.8

3.8

4

 

54.3

44.6

9.7

0.7

4

 

53.9

44.4

9.5

0.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

55.9

42.9

13.0

10

 

60.0

38.9

21.1

8.1

10

 

59.4

39.7

19.7

6.7

10

 

56.6

42.5

14.1

1.1

10

 

 

MA

61.9

36.8

25.2

12

 

64.8

33.9

31.0

5.8

12

 

66.3

33.6

32.7

7.5

12

 

65.7

34.2

31.5

6.3

12

 

 

MI

51.2

47.8

3.4

17

 

54.4

44.7

9.7

6.3

17

 

51.8

47.3

4.5

1.1

17

 

51.9

47.1

4.8

1.4

17

 

 

MN

51.1

47.6

3.5

9

 

55.7

43.0

12.8

9.3

9

 

56.7

42.4

14.3

10.8

9

 

53.7

44.9

8.8

5.3

9

 

 

MS

40.2

59.0

(18.9)

 

 

45.8

53.4

(7.6)

11.3

 

 

46.2

53.2

(7.0)

11.9

 

 

43.4

56.0

(12.6)

6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

46.1

53.3

(7.2)

 

 

49.0

50.4

(1.4)

5.8

 

 

47.8

52.2

(4.4)

2.8

 

 

47.8

52.1

(4.3)

2.9

 

 

 

MT

38.6

59.1

(20.5)

 

 

37.7

60.0

(22.3)

(1.8)

 

 

37.8

59.9

(22.1)

(1.6)

 

 

37.2

60.0

(22.8)

(2.3)

 

 

 

NE

32.7

65.9

(33.2)

 

 

36.7

61.8

(25.1)

8.1

 

 

37.5

61.7

(24.2)

9.0

 

 

36.1

62.6

(26.5)

6.7

 

 

 

NV

47.9

50.5

(2.6)

 

 

52.9

45.4

7.5

10.1

5

 

49.3

47.9

1.4

4.0

5

 

48.9

48.3

0.6

3.2

5

 

 

NH

50.2

48.9

1.4

4

 

57.0

42.1

15.0

13.6

4

 

57.1

42.1

15.0

13.6

4

 

55.1

43.9

11.2

9.8

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

52.9

46.2

6.7

15

 

57.8

41.4

16.4

9.7

15

 

58.4

40.2

18.2

11.5

15

 

55.3

42.8

12.5

5.8

15

 

 

NM

49.0

49.8

(0.8)

 

 

52.9

45.9

7.0

7.8

5

 

51.7

47.5

4.2

5.0

5

 

50.8

48.0

2.8

3.6

5

 

 

NY

58.4

40.1

18.3

31

 

64.1

34.4

29.7

11.4

31

 

65.1

33.8

31.3

13.0

31

 

63.1

35.5

27.6

9.3

31

 

 

NC

43.6

56.0

(12.4)

 

 

49.2

50.4

(1.1)

11.3

 

 

48.2

51.8

(3.6)

8.8

 

 

48.1

51.9

(3.8)

8.6

 

 

 

ND

35.5

62.9

(27.4)

 

 

32.9

65.5

(32.6)

(5.2)

 

 

32.3

66.7

(34.4)

(7.0)

 

 

33.3

64.9

(31.6)

(4.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

48.7

50.8

(2.1)

 

 

54.2

45.4

8.8

10.9

20

 

53.2

46.7

6.5

8.6

20

 

51.7

48.3

3.4

5.5

20

 

 

OK

34.4

65.6

(31.1)

 

 

33.5

66.5

(33.0)

(1.9)

 

 

34.1

65.8

(31.7)

(0.6)

 

 

34.6

65.4

(30.8)

0.3

 

 

 

OR

51.3

47.2

4.2

7

 

53.0

47.0

6.0

1.8

7

 

53.0

47.0

6.0

1.8

7

 

50.3

47.9

2.4

(1.8)

7

 

 

PA

50.9

48.4

2.5

21

 

55.3

44.0

11.3

8.8

21

 

56.9

43.1

13.8

11.3

21

 

54.2

45.7

8.5

6.0

21

 

 

RI

59.4

38.7

20.8

4

 

61.8

36.3

25.5

4.7

4

 

62.4

36.3

26.1

5.3

4

 

63.2

34.9

28.3

7.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

40.9

58.0

(17.1)

 

 

45.9

53.0

(7.1)

10.0

 

 

46.4

52.4

(6.0)

11.1

 

 

45.1

53.8

(8.7)

8.4

 

 

 

SD

38.4

59.9

(21.5)

 

 

36.3

62.0

(25.7)

(4.2)

 

 

34.9

63.2

(28.3)

(6.8)

 

 

36.8

61.5

(24.7)

(3.2)

 

 

 

TN

42.5

56.8

(14.3)

 

 

42.8

56.5

(13.8)

0.5

 

 

40.3

58.5

(18.2)

(3.9)

 

 

41.3

57.6

(16.3)

(2.0)

 

 

 

TX

38.2

61.1

(22.9)

 

 

40.6

58.7

(18.1)

4.8

 

 

36.5

63.5

(27.0)

(4.1)

 

 

37.1

62.9

(25.8)

(2.9)

 

 

 

UT

26.0

71.5

(45.5)

 

 

29.2

68.3

(39.1)

6.4

 

 

29.9

69.2

(39.3)

6.2

 

 

29.9

68.3

(38.4)

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

58.9

38.8

20.1

3

 

66.4

31.3

35.1

15.0

3

 

67.0

30.4

36.6

16.5

3

 

64.5

32.8

31.7

11.6

3

 

 

VA

45.5

53.7

(8.2)

 

 

49.4

49.7

(0.3)

7.9

 

 

50.2

49.7

0.5

8.7

13

 

48.0

51.9

(3.9)

4.3

 

 

 

WA

52.8

45.6

7.2

11

 

57.0

41.4

15.6

8.4

11

 

54.9

44.2

10.7

3.5

11

 

54.1

44.6

9.5

2.3

11

 

 

WV

43.2

56.1

(12.9)

 

 

40.3

59.0

(18.7)

(5.8)

 

 

41.6

57.4

(15.8)

(2.9)

 

 

44.9

54.2

(9.3)

3.6

 

 

 

WI

49.7

49.3

0.4

10

 

52.0

47.0

5.1

4.7

10

 

52.5

46.8

5.7

5.3

10

 

49.6

49.2

0.4

0.0

10

 

 

WY

29.1

68.9

(39.8)

 

 

31.2

66.7

(35.5)

4.3

 

 

34.5

63.6

(29.1)

10.7

 

 

31.6

66.4

(34.8)

5.0

 

 

 

      

 

 


 

The National Exit Poll Timeline

 

Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6m vote margin.

Bush won the Final National Exit Poll  (13660 respondents) by a 3.2m margin.

 

Final recorded vote  (mil.)

Kerry      Bush      Other

59.03       62.04       1.23

48.27%   50.73%   1.01%
 
 
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000 Category 
Timeline Summary
 
NEP      Sample   Poll     Kerry     Vote       
Timeline Size     MoE      Share     Margin   
3:59pm   8349     1.29%    51.01%    4.96 million     
7:38pm   11027    1.12%    50.90%    4.66     
12:22am  13047    1.03%    51.41%    4.63     
Final    13660    1.01%    48.48%   -3.22      
 
8349 Respondents                   
11/02 3:59pm                Vote Shares               Votes (in millions)
2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      18.34    15%      62%      37%      1%       11.37    6.79     0.18
Gore     47.69    39%      91%      8%       1%       43.39    3.81     0.48
Bush     51.35    42%      9%       90%      0%       4.62     46.22    0.00
Other    4.89     4%       61%      12%      16%      2.98     0.59     0.78
                                                                      
Total    122.3    100%     51.01%   46.95%   1.18%    62.37    57.41    1.44
 
11027 Respondents                                                              
11/02 7:38pm                                                                   
2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.79    17%      59%      39%      1%       12.26    8.11     0.21
Gore     46.46    38%      91%      8%       1%       42.28    3.72     0.46
Bush     50.13    41%      9%       90%      0%       4.51     45.12    0.00
Other    4.89     4%       65%      13%      16%      3.18     0.64     0.78
                                                                      
Total    122.3    100%     50.90%   47.09%   1.19%    62.24    57.58    1.46
 
13047 Respondents                                                     
11/03 12:22am                                                                  
2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.79    17%      57%      41%      2%       11.85    8.52     0.42
Gore     47.69    39%      91%      8%       1%       43.39    3.81     0.48
Bush     50.13    41%      10%      90%      0%       5.01     45.12    0.00
Other    3.67     3%       71%      21%      8%       2.60     0.77     0.29
                                                                      
Total    122.3    100%     51.41%   47.62%   0.97%    62.86    58.22    1.19
 
13660 Respondents                                                              
11/03 2:05pm                                                 
2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      20.79    17%      54%      45%      1%       11.22    9.35     0.21
Gore     45.24    37%      90%      10%      0%       40.72    4.52     0.00
Bush     52.58    43%      9%       91%      0%       4.73     47.84    0.00
Other    3.67     3%       71%      21%      8%       2.60     0.77     0.29
                                                                      
Total    122.3    100%     48.48%   51.11%   0.41%    59.28    62.49    0.50
 

 

2004 NEP Demographic Timeline

 

In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”How Voted in 2000” category, the exit pollsters had to adjust all category weights and/or vote shares from the 12:22am update (which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6%).  

 
Change: Category weight and/or Kerry vote share decline required to match the final recorded vote    
 
 
NEP Update       3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am   Final Weight   3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am Final   Vote 
Respondents      8349     11027    13047     13660 Change   8349     11027    13047   13660   Change
                                                                                       
                 Category Weight                             Kerry Vote Share          
GENDER                                                                                 
Male             42       46       46       46               47       47       47       44      -3
Female           58       54       54       54               53       54       54       51      -3
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.48    50.78    50.78    47.78
VOTE (mil)                                                   61.72    62.08    62.08    58.42
                                                                                       
REGION                                                                                 
East             23       22       22       22               58       58       58       56      -2
Midwest          25       26       26       26               50       50       50       48      -2  
South            31       31       31       32   +1          44       45       45       42      -3
West             21       21       21       20   -1          53       53       53       50      -3
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.61    50.84    50.84    48.24
VOTE                                                         61.88    62.16    62.16    58.98
                                                                                       
PARTY ID                                                                               
Democrat         39       38       38       37   -1          90       90       90       89      -1
Republican       36       36       35       37   +2           7       7        7         6      -1
Independent      25       26       27       26   -1          52       52       52       49      -3
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.62    50.24    50.69    47.89
VOTE                                                         61.89    61.42    61.97    58.55
 
IDEOLOGY                                                                               
Liberal          22       22       22       21   -1          86       87       86       85      -1
Moderate         45       45       45       45               58       57       57       54      -3 
Conservative     33       33       33       34   +1          16       16       16       15      -1
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.3     50.07    49.85    47.25
VOTE                                                         61.50    61.22    60.95    57.77
                                                                                       
VOTED 2000                                                                                      
Did Not Vote     15       17       17       17               62       59       57       54      -3
Gore             39       38       39       37   -2          91       91       91       90      -1
Bush             42       41       41       43   +2           9        9       10        9      -1
Other             4        4        3        3               61       65       71       71
PCT              100      100      100      100              51.01    50.9     51.41    48.48
VOTE                                                         62.36    62.23    62.85    59.27
                                                                                       
WHEN DECIDED                                                                                    
Today             6        6        6          -1          52       54       53       52       -1
Last 3 Days       3        3        3        4   +1          50       54       53       55       +2
Last Week         2        2        2        2               48       48       48       48
Last Month        10      10       10       10               61       61       60       54       -6
Over 30 Days      79      79       79       79               50       50       50       46       -4
PCT               100     100      100      100              51.18    51.42    51.23    47.5
VOTE                                                         62.57    62.87    62.63    58.07
                                                                                       
EDUCATION                                                                                       
No High School    4        4        4        4               50       52       52       50       -2
High School Grad 22       22       22       22               50       51       51       47       -4
Some College     30       31       31       32   +1          48       47       47       46       -1
College Grad     26       26       26       26               48       49       48       46       -2
Post Grad        18       17       17       16   -1          58       58       58       55       -3 
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.32    50.34    50.21    47.82
VOTE                                                         61.52    61.55    61.39    58.46

                                                                                       
RACE/GENDER                                                                                     
White Male       33       36       36       36               40       41       41       37       -4
White Female     44       41       41       41               47       47       47       44       -3
Non-white Male   10       10       10       10               69       70       69       67       -2
Non-white Female 13       13       13       13               77       77       77       75       -2
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.79    51.04    50.94    47.81
VOTE                                                         62.10    62.40    62.28    58.45
  
                                                                                     
AGE                                                                                    
18-29            15       17       17       17               56       56       56       54        -2 
30-44            27       27       29       29               48       49       49       46        -3 
45-59            31       30       30       30               52       51       51       48        -3
60+              27       26       24       24               48       48       48       46        -2
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.44    50.53    50.26    47.96
VOTE                                                         61.67    61.78    61.47    58.64
                                                                                       
INCOME                                                                                 
0-15k            9         9        9        8   -1          68       66       66       63        -3
15-30           15        15       15       15               59       59       59       57        -2
30-50           22        22       22       22               53       52       52       50        -2
50-75           22        23       23       23               46       45       45       43        -2   
75-100          14        13       13       14   +1          49       49       49       45        -4
100-150         11        11       11       11               44       45       45       42        -3
150-200          4         4        4        4               45       47       47       42        -5
200+             3         3        3        3               40       41       41       35        -6
PCT              100      100      100      100              51.45    51.01    51.01    48.13
VOTE                                                         62.90    62.36    62.36    58.84
 
RELIGION                                                                               
Protestant       53       53       53       53               43       43       43       40        -3
Catholic         27       27       27       27               50       50       50       47        -3 
Jewish            3        3        3        3               77       77       77       74        -3
Other             7        7        7        7               76       75       75       74        -1
None             10       10       10       10               69       70       70       67        -3
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.82    50.85    50.85    47.99
VOTE                                                         62.13    62.17    62.17    58.67
                                                                                       
MILITARY EXPERIENCE                                                                                      
Yes               18      18       18       18               43       43       43       41       -2
No                82      82       82       82               52       53       53       50       -3
PCT              100      100      100      100              50.38    51.2     51.2     48.38
VOTE                                                         61.59    62.60    62.60    59.15
 

 

Forcing the Final Exit Poll to match the Recorded vote

Naysayers were challenged in the Democratic Underground Game Thread to provide a mathematically feasible and plausible Bush win scenario. In order to comply with the rules of the “game”, they had to use feasible weights based on the recorded 2000 and 2004 vote, annual 0.87% mortality rate and estimated 95% turnout of 2000 voters.

They presented a spreadsheet to show a scenario for Bush to achieve his 3 million vote “mandate”.  In order to match the recorded vote, they had to adjust the Bush Final NEP vote shares to implausible levels.

The Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:

 

1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.

    The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).

 

2)  Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000). 

     The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final). 

 

3)  Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.

     The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).

 

On the other hand, the True Vote model, which used feasible weights and plausible vote shares, determined that Kerry won a 7.7 million vote landslide by 52.6-46.4%.

 

The assumptions were:

1)  0.87% annual mortality 

2)  95% turnout of Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters in 2004

3)  125.74m total votes were cast (Census) in 2004  

4)  12:22am NEP vote shares

 
 
            True Vote Model                           Bush Win Scenario
         Pct      Kerry    Bush     Other            Pct      Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      21.49%   57%      41%      2%               21.72%   52.90%   46.50%   0.60%
Gore     38.23%   91%      8%       1%               37.84%   84.83%   14.63%   0.54%
Bush     37.83%   10%      90%      0%               37.44%   7.20%    92.31%   0.49%
Other    2.45%    71%      21%      8%               3.00%    65.90%   18.10%   16.00%
                                                                               
Share    100.0%   52.56%   46.43%   1.01%            100.0%   48.26%   50.74%   1.00%
                                                                               
                                                                               
         Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other            Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      27.02    15.40    11.08    0.54             26.56    14.05    12.35    0.16
Gore     48.07    43.74    3.85     0.48             46.28    39.26    6.77     0.25
Bush     47.57    4.76     42.81    0.00             45.79    3.30     42.27    0.22
Other    3.08     2.19     0.65     0.25             3.67     2.42     0.66     0.59
                                                                               
Total    125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27             122.30   59.02    62.05    1.22
 

 

Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or the mathematically impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights?  Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on a)  plausible 37.84 Gore/ 37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate, or b) the Final NEP impossible 43 Bush/ 37% Gore weights and plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?

Because the 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights contradicted the debunked reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis, the naysayers needed to come up with another explanation.  They cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final Bush/Gore weights. But they wanted to have it both ways: On the one hand,  they claimed that the 43/37 weights were legitimate exit poll samples in which Gore voters misstated their vote; but they contradicted that when they used feasible weights applied to an implausible 14.6% Gore defection rate.  But it was a very weak argument because it implied that 6.6% of Gore voters (8.6% over the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote when they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000.

They said the reason for the mass defection of Gore voters was due to a long-term bandwagon effect: former Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”, Bush. But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls.

Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.  

 

False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047 respondents were asked who they just voted for – and Kerry won.  But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.  Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry if they voted for Bush?  Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%.

 
GENDER     Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other
Male       46%      47%      52%      1%
Female     54%      54%      45%      1%
 
Share      100%     50.78%   48.22%   1.00%
Votes      122.3    62.10    58.97    1.22

 

What is relevant is who the exit poll respondents said they just voted for in 2004 - and 91% said Kerry. The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote and annual mortality rate are historical demographic facts. They are necessary and sufficient to determine the maximum number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004.  The final realistic, plausible weighting is just the ratio of 2000 voter turnout to total 2004 recorded vote. The weights multiplied by the corresponding exit poll vote shares determine the national share. Therefore, the only exit poll response which matters is the answer to the question: Who did you vote for in 2004? It follows that even if "false recall" were a factor, it is irrelevant. Voters do not falsely recall who they just voted for five minutes earlier. What would be their motivation to lie? Survey responses are confidential.


 
The Election Calculator Model
 
The model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1988. 
 
For the 2004 election, the data consists of:
1) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted
2) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted
3) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)
 
Assumptions:
1) 12:22am NEP vote shares
2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%
3) 75% of uncounted votes to Gore and Kerry 
 
         2000 Recorded                               
Voted    Recd     Unctd    Cast     Died    Alive
Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.72     52.32
Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.48     49.06
Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02
                                            
Total    105.42   5.38     110.8    5.41     105.39
                                            
                                   
         2004 Calculated                    
       Turnout    Voted   Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other
DNV      -        25.61    20.4%    57%      41%      2%
Gore     95%      49.70    39.5%    91%      8%       1%
Bush     95%      46.60    37.1%    10%      90%      0%
Other    95%      3.82     3.0%     64%      17%      19%
                                                    
Total   100.1     125.7    100%    53.23%   45.39%   1.38%
                                   66.94    57.07    1.74 
 

 
The 2006 Midterms
 

Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in which 18,000 mostly Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of massive fraud in the midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate media.  But a Pew 2006 Election Analysis  describes voting “anomalies” and computer “glitches” that occurred in virtually every state. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20 congressional seats.

 

The 2006 National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2004” weights were changed from 47 Bush / 45 Kerry at 7pm  to 49/43 in the Final NEP the following day. Once again, just like in 2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 12:22am NEP “How Voted in 2000” Bush/Gore 41/39 weights were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.

 

When plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on the 2004 NEP) are used, the Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120 pre-election Generic Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation that the pre-election polls matched the 7pm National Exit Poll? 

 

The Democratic Tsunami won 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.


 

Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll

To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and b) 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.

 

The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.

 

In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count.

 

The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:

IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised

 

The True Vote is given by:

TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched


 

2006 National Exit Poll 
Source.....  Dem Rep Other 
CNN-7pm     55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final   52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT         53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
 
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia   57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat    52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State   51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
 
 
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
 
Dem Share = 46.98% + .0419x
Rep  Share = 38.06% + .0047x         
 
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats: 
 
........      Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem =    52.01 + 4.42   =   56.43%
Rep =     38.62 + 2.95   =   41.57%
 
 
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
 
VOTED 2004
 
        --------- 7:07pm -----------   -------------- Final --------   ------ True Generic Vote -----
        MIX    Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep     Other
Kerry   45%     93%     6%      1%      43%     92%     7%      1%      49%     93%     6%     1%
Bush    47%     17%     82%     1%      49%     15%     83%     2%      46%     17%     82%    1%
Other   4%      67%     23%     10%     4%      66%     23%     11%     1%      67%     23%    10%
DNV     4%      67%     30%     3%      4%      66%     32%     2%      4%      67%     30%    3%
 
TOTAL   100%   55.2%   43.4%   1.4%    100%    52.2%   45.9%   1.9%    100%    56.7%   42.1%    1.2%

 

 

Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
 
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%                                                            
                        7pm
Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%
Bush    49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%     43%     42%     41%
Dem     53.7%   54.4%   55.2%   56.0%   56.7%   57.5%   58.2%   59.0%   59.8%
 
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%                                                            
        1pm    
Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%
Bush    49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%     43%     42%     41%
Dem     52.2%   53.0%   53.7%   54.5%   55.3%   56.0%   56.8%   57.6%   58.4%
 
True Vote  
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
                                                        True
Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%
Bush    52%     51%     50%     49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%
Dem     52.2%   52.9%   53.7%   54.5%   55.2%   56.0%   56.7%   57.5%   58.3%