New Voters: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

TruthIsAll

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush won 41% of new and former voters who did not vote in 2000 (DNV2k); according to the Final NEP (which was matched to the recorded vote), Bush won 45%.

Let’s estimate how many Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election and the percentage of those still living who turned out to vote in 2004. Bush had 50.46m votes in 2000. Approximately 1.8m died prior to the 2004 election, assuming the 0.87% U.S. annual mortality rate (3.5% over four years). Of the 48.7m still living, assuming that 46.2m (95%) voted in 2004, Bush needed 15.8m new voters to obtain his 62m total.

Where did Bush gain these 16 million new voters?

1) Were they former Nader voters?

No, Kerry won them by 64-17% over Bush

(1.5m net votes to Kerry)

2) Were they former Gore voters?

According to the 12:22am NEP, 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush (4.1m)

3) Were they former Bush voters?

10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry (5.1m)

(1.0m net votes to Kerry)

4) Were they new voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000)?

Kerry won new voters by 57-41% (see above).

(4.0m net votes to Kerry)

So how could Bush win by three million votes after losing the popular vote in 2000 and capturing just 41-45% of new voters in 2004?

He couldn’t.

How was it that in 2000 Bush won only 43% of first-timers, but 71% of other new voters - a whopping 28% difference.

In 2004, Kerry won 55% of first-timers and 61% of other new voters – a plausible 6% difference.

Kerry did much better among all new voters in 2004 than Bush did in 2000.

Bush did much better among all new voters in 2000 than Bush did in 2004.

So how did Kerry lose?

He didn’t.

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Bush needed 15.8m or 60% of 26.3m new 2004 voters to match his 62m total

Given:

1) 122.30 million recorded votes in 2004

2) 104.74m recorded votes in 2000

3) 50.46m Bush 2000 recorded vote;

4) 62.04m Bush 2004 recorded vote;

5) X = 3.5% (percent of 2000 voters who died prior to 2004);

6) Y = 95% (percent of 2000 voters still living who voted in 2004)

Determine:

T = Number of new voters

T = 122.3 – 104.74 * Y * (1 - X)

T = 122.3 – 104.74 *.95 *.965

T = 122.3 – 96.02 = 26.28

Z = New Bush voters required to achieve his 2004 recorded vote total

Z = 62.04 - 50.46 * Y * (1-X)

Z = 62.04 – 50.46 * .95 * .965

Z = 62.04 – 46.26 = 15.78

P = Required Bush share of new voters

P = Z / T = 15.78/26.28 = 60.0%

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Let’s look at the Final National Exit Poll trend of first-time voters in presidential elections since 1984. From 1992 to 2004, the Democratic candidates won a solid 14% majority of first-time voters. Ruy Teixeira wrote about the cumulative build-up of the Democratic base in The Emerging Democratic Majority.

First-time Voter % Trend (Final NEP)

2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)

2004F: 2:04pm Final NEP (13660 respondents)

First-time 84 88 92 96 00 2004P 2004F
Dem % 38 47 46 54 52 55 53
Rep % 61 51 32 34 43 43 46

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Final 2000 National Exit Poll

Voted in 1996

Election 2000 voters who did not vote in 1996 (DNV96) comprised 13% of the 2000 recorded vote.

(4% were first-timers and 9% were other new voters)

Gore and Bush split the vote of those who voted in 1996 (48-48%).

Bush won DNV96 voters by 52-44%.

Gore won first-time voters by 52-43%.

Bush won other new voters by 71-26%.

Voted96 Mix Gore Bush Nader/other

DNV96:

1stTime 9% 52% 43% 4%

Other 4% 26% 71% 3%

DNV96 13% 44% 52% 3%

Clinton 46% 82% 15% 2%

Dole 31% 7% 91% 1%

Perot 6% 27% 64% 7%

Other 2% 26% 52% 15%

Share 98% 47.8% 46.8% 2.3%

First-time Voters

Yes 9% 52% 43% 4%

No 91% 48% 48% 2%

Share 100% 48.8% 48.3% 2.9%

Votes 104.7 51.0 50.5 3.2

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2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am)

Voted in 2000

Election 2004 voters who did not vote in 2000 (DNV2k) comprised 17% of the 2004 recorded vote.

(11% were first-timers and 6% were other new voters)

Kerry won DNV2k voters by 57-41%.

Kerry won first-timers by 55-43%

Kerry won other new voters by 61-37%.

Since Bush won just 43% of the 11% who were first-time voters, he needed 51.7% of the other 89%

who voted prior to 2004 in order to match the recorded vote.

Voted2k Mix Kerry Bush Other

1stTime 11% 55% 43% 2%

Others 6% 61% 37% 2%

DNV2k 17% 57% 41% 2%

Gore 39% 91% 8% 1%

Bush 41% 10% 90% 0%

Other 3% 71% 21% 8%

Share 100% 51.4% 47.6% 1.0%

Votes 122.3 62.9 58.2 1.2

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First-time Voters

Yes 11% 55% 43% 2%

No 89% 51% 48% 1%

Share 100% 51.4% 47.6% 1.1%

Votes 122.3 62.9 58.2 1.2

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To match the recorded vote:

Yes 11% 55% 43% 2%

No 89% 47.5% 51.7 1%

Share 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

Votes 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.3

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Sensitivity Analysis – Required new Bush voters

The following is a table of the number of new Bush voters required to reach 62m for various 2000 mortality and turnout rate assumptions.

2000 Voter Turnout in 2004

Mort 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91%

Rate

Required New Bush voters (in millions)

3.5% 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.7

3.0% 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5

2.5% 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3

2.0% 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0

1.5% 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8

1.0% 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6

0.5% 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4

0.0% 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1

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Probability Analysis

(see the DU Game thread)

Mark Lindeman’s proposed Scenario to match the recorded vote

Probabilities of adjusted Kerry/Bush vote shares vs. 12:22am NEP

Lindeman Scenario

Kerry Share Kerry Deviation Scenario

12:22am NEP Share from NEP MoE Probability

DNV2k 57% 52.90% 4.10% 1.72% 1 in 629,000

Gore 91% 84.83% 6.17% 0.99% Effectively ZERO

Bush 10% 7.20% 2.80% 1.04% 1 in 15 million

Probability Calculation of DNV2k Deviation (3200 respondents)

Stdev = sqrt (0.57 * 0.43/3200) = 0.88%

MoE = 1.96 * Stdev = 1.96 * 0.88% = 1.72%

Z-score = Dev / Stdev = 4.10% / 0.88% = 4.67

Prob = NORMDIST (52.9%, 57%, 0.88%, true) = 1 in 629,000