New York Lever Voting Machines: A False Sense of Security 

 
TruthIsAll
 
Feb. 4, 2009

 

New Yorkers who post on Election Forums appear to be quite attached to their Lever voting machines. And it's understandable when one looks at the mess HAVA created.

 

As a former New Yorker who voted on the levers, I am also opposed to the installation of machines in which the votes can be rigged and the count not verified. Unfortunately, lever vote counts have not been verified for one hundred years before HAVA. 

 

In Florida 2000, there were 185,000 spoiled underpunched, overpunched and butterfly punched card ballots. Had they all been counted, Gore would have been President the last eight years. But SCOTUS made sure they weren’t counted. Bush needed Florida to steal the election.

 

Bush did not have a prayer of winning New York. Gore won the state by 1.7 million votes (60.2-35.2%) with 4.6% going to third parties. He also won nationally by 540,000 votes. Only some are aware that according to the US Census, 5.4 million votes were uncounted.  It is estimated that Gore won 4 million of them and his true margin was close to 3 million. No one was concerned that Gore may have also lost votes in New York. It was never an issue. After all, it didn’t matter how much he won by. But it mattered to those who were already planning for Bush’s re-selection in 2004. There could not be a repeat of 2000. 

 

Bush required 270 electoral votes which he would get hook or crook; but he also needed a convincing popular vote margin. Rove knew that Bush would not win a fair election. HAVA was passed. The touch screens and central tabulators could switch the votes in the battleground states. New York kept its levers. To pad the popular vote, it made eminent sense to cut the Democratic margin in states like NY and CA - especially in large urban and suburban locations. Even though Florida and Ohio were key battleground states, New York was a fertile state for vote padding. It was important only to those who needed to pad the Bush vote. Kerry was going to win it big.

But what does that prove?

 

So it was hardly noticed that Kerry won NY by 1.4 million votes (300k less than Gore) with a 58.5-40.2% margin, despite a massive Democratic GOTV, 48% national Bush approval (under 40% in NY) and 70% of 100,000 third-party voters.

But what does that prove?

 

The media never discussed the fact that the unadjusted NY exit poll (before it was matched to the recorded vote) had Kerry winning NY with 64% despite the fact that third-party voters defected to Kerry.

But what does that prove?

 

They also didn't mention that the 12:22am National Exit Poll (before it was matched to the recorded vote) indicated that 8% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters defected.

But what does that prove?

 

And that New York and Connecticut, both 100% lever, also had the largest exit poll (WPE) discrepancies.

But what does that prove?

 

They ignored the fact that in the last three elections the Democratic NY late vote share (500k) was 7% higher than the Election Day share.

But what does that prove?

 

In 2008, Obama won the official NY vote by a 26.7% margin, compared to Gore’s 25.0% and Kerry's 18.5% We will have to wait to see the unadjusted exit polls. If the 2000 and 2004 trend continued in 2008, Obama had 68%, slightly below his 71% share of the 583,000 late votes (absentee and provisional paper ballots).

But what does that prove?

 

New Yorkers who want to keep the levers believe the exit polls had to be wrong and that the recorded vote was the True Vote. After all, they say, levers can't be hacked. Apparently, they also believe there was no incentive for Bush to pad the vote.

 

Maybe the levers can't be hacked electronically but gears can be shaved, faulty machines or too few good machines can be placed in minority precincts, and there's no way to verify the vote count. In other words, were it not for corrupt individuals, levers might be trustworthy.

 

At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter why, how or if the NY vote count can be rigged. The evidence surely suggests they have been. What does matter is that the vote count cannot be verified. For this reason alone, levers should be put to pasture – just like the touch screens. Regardless of the voting system used, the counts must be verifiable.

 

Why would BushCo steal votes in NY? Kerry won the recorded vote by a whopping 18%. The simple answer: to pad his popular vote “mandate”. This analysis shows that Kerry did much better in NY than the recorded vote indicates.

 

Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote the myth that the pre-election polls were correct and the exit poll was way off. But were they registered (RV) or likely-voter (LV) polls? If they were LVs, they would not have included new voters who came out in droves. In essence, NY lever proponents base their entire case on the final pre-election LV polls that did not include new or undecided voters, both of whom went 3-1 for Kerry. Yet they reject the unadjusted (11% WPE) exit poll in which all voters (including new and late undecideds) were asked who they just voted for.

 

But there is no evidence to prove that the votes were counted accurately, while there is historical evidence that Lever machines have been rigged (in Florida). They fail to consider that late votes (absentee and provisional ballots) counted after Election Day skewed sharply to Gore, Kerry and Obama.

 

How does one explain the 2000-2008 New York late vote anomalies?  In total, there were 1.56 million late votes compared to 20.1 million Election Day, a 7.8% increase. The average Democratic late vote share was 67%; the Election Day share was 60.0%.

 

In 2004, Al Franken ridiculed election fraud researchers who fought for transparent elections. He had to run for office to see how wrong he was.

 

Dan Rather's votimg fraud expose  was a clear example of how mechanical voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts. The report illustrated a method used to hack mechanical voting machines (punch card or lever). There are fundamental flaws in their argument.

 

1- They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2-Bush 35.2-Nader 3.6. Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.

 

In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.

 

2- They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%).  Since the MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster effect) implies that there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the 60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%.

 

3- They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%.  The assumptions were as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%. 

 

4- They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%.  If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).

 

The New York anomalies:

1. Kerry won three exit poll measures by an average 64.1%.

His recorded share was 58.5%.

 

2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest average WPE (10.6%).

New York votes 99% by Lever.

 

3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.

 

4. Kerry’s NY vote share was 10% higher than his national share. Therefore, his NY shares must have exceeded the national shares (note 3).

 

5. Kerry won 66% of the final 500k votes but only 58% of the initial 6.8m; Gore won 74% of the final 500k and 60% of the initial 6.3m.

 

6. Kerry won approximately 75% of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).

 

7. Kerry had his highest NY shares in the four counties that had the highest rates of voting incidents.

 

8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from 2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.

 

9. Kerry won returning Nader voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by16%.

Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush.

 

If we conservatively assume that Kerry’s NY share of new and former Gore voters was just 1% higher than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match the official count!  The net defection rate would have had to flip from Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY vote share by over 5%? Do you believe in magic?

 

10. Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban strongholds yet did not do well in his strongholds: small towns and rural areas (the “Urban Legend”).  Seven strong Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total recorded vote; Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%) from 2000; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%) over Gore; Nader lost 89k. In other counties, Bush had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%). The implausible change in Bush and Kerry vote shares in the largest 15 New York Counties  from 2000 to 2004 tells the story.

 

11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of returning Nader voters, Kerry would have a 72/27% margin in the seven counties assuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected and 8% of Gore voters defected.   Assuming a net 2% defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73/26% margin in the seven counties. So how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% increase in Bush margin!

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

NY Democratic Initial and Late Vote Share: 2000-2008                                                            

(in millions)

 

       Late    Share  Initial Share

2000   0.552   65%     6.3   60%

2004   0.499   64%     6.8   58%

2008   0.584   71%     7.0   62%

 
2008  

Obama won 71% of the 584,000 late votes but only 62% of the initial 7.0 million.

Obama   McCain Other   Total

4.769   2.742  0.082   7.593

62.8%   36.1%  1.1%    100%

 

2004  

Kerry won 64.3% of the 499,000 late votes but only 57.9% of the initial 6.89million.

Kerry also won the unadjusted exit poll with an identical 64%.

Kerry   Bush   Other   Total

4.314   2.963  0.114   7.391

58.5%   40.2%  1.3%    100%

 

 

2000 

Gore won 65.4% of the 552,000 late votes but only 59.8% of the initial 6.3 million.

Gore   Bush    Nader   Other   Total

4.108  2.403   0.244   0.67    6.822

60.2%  35.2%   3.6%    1.0%    100%

 

 

 

NY 2004 Pre-election and Exit Polls

 

New York                   Kerry   Bush   Nader

Recorded vote              58.5%   40.2%   1.3%

Pre-election poll          57       39     1

Projection                 59       40     1

 

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures

Unadjusted WPE             64.1%   34.4%    1.5%

GEO Best Estimate          65.1    33.8     1.1 

Composite                  63.1    35.5     1.4

 

 

Average Voting Machine WPE for all Exit Poll Precincts

Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the highest mean Within Precinct Error (10.6%). 

Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (2.2%)

New York votes 99% by Lever.

 

Method     Mean          Median       Precincts

Paper          2.2           0.9            40

Lever           10.6          10.3          118

DRE              7.1           7                360

Punch           6.6           7.3            158

OptiScan      6.1           5.5            573

 

 

NY True Vote:  
Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
Kerry vote shares reflect higher NY shares compared to NEP shares
 
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other   NEP
DNV      -       1.236    16.7%     61%     37%      2%   57-41%
Gore     95%     3.718    50.4%     94%     5%       1%   91-8%
Bush     95%     2.172    29.4%     12%     88%      0%   10-90%
Nader    95%     0.250    3.4%      68%     13%      19%  64-17%
                                                    
Total    6.140   7.376    100%     63.45%   35.07%   1.48%
                         7.376     4.680    2.587    0.109 

 

 
NY 2004 Election Calculator 
 
Plausible Scenario Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
  
Scenario 1:  
12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares
 1.22% annual voter mortality
                                                    
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV      0%       1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%       1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     10%     90%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250     3.4%     64%     17%      19%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     60.54%   37.98%   1.48%
                           7.38     4.47      2.81    0.10
                                                    
Scenario 2  
NY estimated vote shares
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV       -       1.236    16.7%     61%     37%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     94%     5%       1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     12%     88%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      68%     13%      19%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     63.45%   35.07%   1.48%
                           7.38     4.68    2.59    0.10 
 
 
Scenario 3 
Uncounted votes: 5%
Gore and Kerry share of uncounted: 75%
                                                    
        Turnout  Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV       -       1.30    16.8%    61%      37%      2%
Gore     95%     3.96     51.0%    94%      5%       1%
Bush     95%     2.23     28.8%    12%      88%      0%
Other    95%     0.27     3.4%     68%      13%      19%
                                            
Total   6.46     7.76     100%     64.0%    34.5%    1.5%
                         7.76     4.97     2.68     0.12 
 
Sensitivity Analysis                            
                 
Kerry    Kerry share of New voters                   
%Gore    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%    63.0%    65.0%
Voters 
         Kerry NY Vote Share                        
98%      65.4%    65.7%    66.0%    66.4%    66.7%
96%      64.3%    64.7%    65.0%    65.3%    65.7%
94%      63.3%    63.7%    64.0%    64.3%    64.7%
92%      62.3%    62.6%    63.0%    63.3%    63.6%
90%      61.3%    61.6%    61.9%    62.3%    62.6%
                                            
          Kerry Margin                      
98%      2.50     2.55     2.61     2.66     2.71 
96%      2.34     2.39     2.45     2.50     2.55 
94%      2.18     2.24     2.29     2.34     2.39 
92%      2.03     2.08     2.13     2.18     2.23 
90%      1.87     1.92     1.97     2.02     2.08 
 
 
Gore     Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
share    93.0%    94.0%    95.0%    96.0%    97.0%
Unctd
Votes    Kerry NY Vote Share                         
85%      64.0%    64.2%    64.3%    64.5%    64.7%
80%      63.8%    64.0%    64.2%    64.3%    64.5%
75%      63.6%    63.8%    64.0%    64.2%    64.3%
70%      63.5%    63.6%    63.8%    64.0%    64.2%
65%      63.3%    63.5%    63.6%    63.8%    64.0%
                                            
          Kerry Margin                      
85%      2.29     2.32     2.34     2.37     2.40 
80%      2.26     2.29     2.32     2.34     2.37 
75%      2.23     2.26     2.29     2.32     2.34 
70%      2.20     2.23     2.26     2.29     2.32 
65%      2.18     2.20     2.23     2.26     2.29 
 
 
________________________________________________________________________________________________                                                    
                                                    
Implausible Scenarios 
(vote shares adjusted to match to recorded vote)
 
Scenario 1:  
Bush wins 100% of Nader 2000 voters                                                                                         
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV               1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%      8%      1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     10%     90%      0%
Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      0%     100%      0%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%     58.37%   40.79%   0.84%
                          7.376     4.305    3.009    0.062
                                                    
Scenario 2:  
Bush wins 100% of Bush 2000 voters                                                                                           
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV               1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%
Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%      1%
Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     0%      100%    0%
Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      64%     17%     19%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%    57.60%   40.92%   1.48%
                          7.376    4.248    3.018    0.109 
                                                    
Scenario 3:  
Bush wins 54% of New 2004 voters (DNV)                                                                                  
 
         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV               1.24     16.7%     44%     54%     2%
Gore     95%      3.72     50.4%     91%     8%      1%
Bush     95%      2.17     29.4%     10%     90%     0%
Nader    95%      0.25     3.4%      64%     17%     19%
                                                    
Total    6.140    7.376    100%    58.36%   40.15%   1.48%
                          7.376    4.305    2.962   0.109
 

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

New York County Vote Changes

(93.4% of final recorded total)

 
Vote Change            Kerry          Bush
Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%
Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%   
 
         Final Recorded Vote                                                                               
                 Total     Dem    Nader    Bush               Dem     Nader    Bush             
         2004     7,377    4,314    99      2,963            58.48%   1.35%    40.17%           
         2000     6,762    4,112    244     2,405            60.82%   3.61%    35.57%           
         Change   614       201    -144     557              4.9%     -59.1%   23.2%            
                                                                                                
         Preliminary Recorded vote                                                                         
         2004     6,892    3,993    103      2,795            57.94%   1.50%    40.56%           
         2000     6,269    3,746    300      2,222            59.76%   4.79%    35.45%           
         Change   622      246      -197     573              6.6%     -65.5%   25.8%            
                                                                                       
         Change from Preliminary to Final                                                                           
         2004     485      320      -3       167              66.1%    -0.75%   34.6%    
         2000     493      366      -56      183              74.2%    -11.4%   37.1%         

 

 
Seven NYC Area Counties
 
                           2000                              2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change   
County          Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY BUSH
Total            7779     3093     69.6%    26.5%    4.1%     3442     66.0%    32.9%    1.1%     129         311      -89      5.4%   41.3%
                                                                                                                    
Brooklyn         1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%      75%
Suffolk          1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%      35%
Nassau           1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7         64.5     -14.7    -2%     30%
Manhattan        1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%     21%
Queens           1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%      36%
Bronx            912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8         19.7     -3.9     10%     59%
Staten Island    333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2         24.3     -2.9     -9%     40%
 
 

Total New York Counties

 
                           2000                              2004                                Vote Change                Percent Change   
County          Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY       BUSH     NADER    KERRY   BUSH
Total            15553    6270     59.8%    35.4%    4.8%     6892     57.9%    40.6%    1.5%     247         573      -197     6.6%   25.8%
                                                                                                                    
Brooklyn         1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%      75%
Suffolk          1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%      35%
Nassau           1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7         64.5     -14.7    -2%     30%
Manhattan        1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%     21%
Queens           1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%      36%
 
Erie             1007     384      57%      37%      6%       411      56%      42%      2.2%     13.3         27.7     -13.5    6%      19%
Westchester      948      306      58%      37%      4%       377      58%      41%      1.5%     39.5         38.9     -7.3     22%     34%
Monroe           792      300      51%      44%      5%       330      50%      48%      1.6%     13.9         26.3     -10.2    9%      20%
Bronx            912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8         19.7     -3.9     10%     59%
Onondaga         485      190      54%      41%      5%       199      54%      44%      1.8%     5.4         10.1     -6.5      5%      13%
 
Staten Island    333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2         24.3     -2.9     -9%     40%
Albany           327      130      60%      34%      6%       136      60%      38%      1.9%     3.8         6.9      -5.6       5%     16%
Orange           284      118      46%      50%      5%       135      44%      55%      1.3%     5.1         16.0      -3.7     9%      27%
Rockland         250      117      56%      40%      4%       122      49%      50%      1.5%     -6.0         13.7     -2.7     -9%     29%
Dutchess         239      105      47%      47%      6%       114      47%      52%      1.6%     4.0         9.7      -4.7     8%       20%
 
Saratoga         168      89       45%      50%      5%       100      45%      53%      1.8%     4.7         8.3      -2.3     12%      19%
Niagara          180      87       52%      43%      5%       90       49%      49%      1.9%     -1.2         5.9      -2.7     -3%     16%
Oneida           209      87       45%      49%      5%       89       42%      55%      2.3%     -1.7         6.5      -2.6     -4%     15%
Broome           193      81       52%      43%      6%       84       50%      48%      2.0%     0.0         5.7      -3.0       0%     16%
Ulster           161      72       48%      44%      8%       84       54%      43%      2.3%     10.6         4.8      -4.1     30%     15%
 
Rensselaer       136      64       51%      43%      6%       67       49%      48%      2.2%     0.5         4.8      -2.4     2%       17%
Schenectady      131      63       53%      42%      5%       65       52%      47%      1.8%     0.0         4.0      -2.1     0%       15%
Chataqua         135      55       46%      49%      5%       57       45%      53%      1.9%     0.0         3.0      -1.4     0%       11%
Oswego           107      45       47%      48%      5%       49       47%      51%      2.0%     1.8         2.9      -1.3     9%       13%
Ontario          88       42       44%      51%      5%       47       42%      56%      1.6%     1.1         4.5      -1.4     6%       21%
 
Putnam           72       40       44%      51%      5%       44       41%      58%      1.1%     0.6         4.7      -1.7     3%       23%
Steuben          82       38       36%      59%      4%       39       34%      64%      1.7%     -0.3         2.9      -1.0     -2%     13%
Wayne            67       36       39%      56%      4%       39       38%      60%      1.7%     0.4         2.9      -1.0     3%       14%
Tompkins         67       37       54%      34%      12%      38       64%      34%      2.4%     4.8         0.6      -3.6     25%      5%
StLawrence       99       37       54%      41%      5%       38       55%      44%      1.9%     0.8         1.3      -1.1     4%       9%
 
Chemung          82       35       46%      50%      4%       38       43%      54%      2.4%     0.5         3.3      -0.6     3%       19%
Jefferson        83       27       42%      47%      10%      35       43%      55%      2.1%     3.7         6.3      -2.1     32%      49%
Cayuga           61       30       49%      45%      6%       32       50%      48%      2.2%     1.6         2.3      -1.0     11%      17%
Catargus         74       32       40%      55%      5%       32       39%      59%      1.8%     -0.3         1.5      -1.0     -3%      8%
Clinton          64       29       50%      44%      6%       31       52%      46%      2.1%     1.9         1.6      -1.0     13%      12%
 
Livingston       57       26       39%      56%      6%       29       38%      60%      2.1%     1.4         3.4      -0.8     14%      24%
Sullivan         63       25       50%      45%      5%       28       49%      50%      1.9%     1.0         2.5      -0.8     8%       22%
Madison          51       26       42%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      1.8%     0.9         1.7      -0.8     8%       12%
Warren           57       26       43%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      2.0%     0.7         1.9      -0.8     7%       14%
Herkimer         61       25       44%      51%      5%       26       41%      57%      2.0%     -0.5         1.9      -0.7     -4%     15%
 
Columbia         54       26       47%      46%      7%       26       54%      43%      2.1%     1.7         -0.8      -1.4    14%      -7%
Genesee          53       26       40%      55%      5%       26       37%      61%      1.6%     -0.8         1.4      -1.0    -8%      10%
Otsego           58       23       45%      48%      7%       25       47%      51%      2.0%     0.8         1.3      -1.0     8%       11%
Washington       51       22       41%      53%      6%       23       42%      56%      2.4%     0.8         1.4      -0.7     9%       12%
Greene           52       19       40%      54%      6%       23       39%      59%      2.0%     1.3         3.2      -0.7     17%      31%
 
Tioga            46       21       41%      54%      5%       22       40%      58%      1.7%     0.4         1.4      -0.6     4%       13%
Cortland         42       20       47%      47%      6%       21       47%      51%      1.9%     0.7         1.5      -0.7     7%       16%
Fulton           49       21       43%      53%      4%       21       41%      57%      1.9%     -0.4         0.6      -0.5     -4%      6%
Delaware         59       19       42%      53%      5%       20       40%      58%      2.4%     0.2         1.6      -0.5     3%       16%
Montgomery       49       20       49%      47%      4%       20       44%      54%      1.9%     -0.9         1.4      -0.4     -9%     15%
 
Chenang          39       19       45%      50%      5%       20       43%      55%      2.0%     -0.1         1.3      -0.6     -1%     14%
Allegany         41       17       35%      61%      5%       18       34%      64%      1.7%     0.0         1.0      -0.5     0%       10%
Essex            39       16       44%      49%      7%       17       46%      52%      2.2%     0.6         0.9      -0.7     8%       11%
Wyoming          39       17       35%      60%      5%       17       34%      65%      1.4%     -0.1         0.9      -0.5     -2%      9%
Franklin         49       16       50%      45%      5%       17       51%      47%      1.9%     0.6         0.7      -0.5     7%       9%
 
Orleans          40       15       38%      58%      4%       16       35%      63%      1.6%     -0.1         1.2      -0.4     -2%     13%
Seneca           27       13       48%      47%      5%       14       45%      52%      2.1%     0.1         1.3      -0.4     2%       21%
Schoharie        29       13       39%      55%      5%       13       39%      59%      2.1%     0.2         0.9      -0.4     4%       14%
Lewis            30       10       40%      56%      4%       11       40%      58%      1.9%     0.3         0.6      -0.2     8%       10%
Yates            20       9        39%      55%      5%       10       39%      60%      1.6%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     5%       15%
 
Schuyler         17       8        40%      54%      6%       8        40%      58%      1.9%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     8%       18%
Hamilton         11       3        29%      64%      7%       3        32%      66%      1.6%     0.1         0.1      -0.2     15%      6%
 
                                                             
________________________________________________________________________
 
NY 2000-2004 County Vote Analysis
 

The data includes the first 6.3m of 6.8m recorded 2000 votes (Gore won 74% of the final 500,000) and the first 6.8m of 7.3m recorded 2004 votes (Kerry won 66% of the final 500,000).

 
         Final Recorded Vote                                                                               
                 Total    Dem     Nader    Bush              Dem     Nader    Bush              
         2004     7,377    4,314    99     2,963            58.48%   1.35%    40.17%           
         2000     6,762    4,112    244    2,405            60.82%   3.61%    35.57%           
         Change   614       201    -144    557              4.9%    -59.1%    23.2%            
                                                                                                
         Preliminary Recorded vote                                                                         
         2004     6,892    3,993    103    2,795            57.94%   1.50%    40.56%           
         2000     6,269    3,746    300    2,222            59.76%   4.79%    35.45%           
         Change   622      246     -1967   573               6.6%   -65.5%    25.8%            
                                                                                       
         Change from Preliminary to Final                                                                           
         2004     485      320      -3      167              66.1%   -0.75%   34.6%    
         2000     493      366      -56     183              74.2%   -11.4%   37.1%    
 
         
Analysis of Changes in Margin                                                                        
 
                  2000                      Gore             2004                      Kerry            Increase in Bush 
County            Gore    Bush     Nader    Margin           Kerry    Bush     Nader    Margin            Margin   Vote 
 
Albany           59.7%    34.0%    6.3%     25.7%            60.2%    37.8%    1.9%     22.4%             3.3%     6922
Allegany         34.7%    60.5%    4.8%     -25.8%           33.8%    64.5%    1.7%     -30.6%            4.8%     1031
Bronx            86.0%    11.9%    2.1%     74.1%            82.7%    16.7%    0.6%     66.0%             8.0%     19734
Brooklyn         79.9%    16.1%    4.0%     63.9%            74.3%    24.8%    0.8%     49.5%             14.4%    67235
Broome           51.8%    42.5%    5.7%     9.3%             50.1%    47.9%    2.0%     2.2%              7.0%     5684
 
Catargus         40.4%    54.6%    5.1%     -14.2%           39.2%    59.0%    1.8%     -19.8%            5.6%     1453
Cayuga           49.3%    44.9%    5.8%      4.4%            49.9%    47.9%    2.2%     2.0%              2.4%     2266
Chataqua         46.3%    49.1%    4.5%     -2.8%            45.1%    53.1%    1.9%     -8.0%             5.3%     3038
Chemung          46.1%    49.8%    4.2%     -3.7%            43.4%    54.3%    2.4%     -10.9%            7.2%     3327
Chenang          44.8%    49.7%    5.5%     -4.8%            43.0%    55.0%    2.0%     -12.0%            7.1%     1343
 
Clinton          50.4%    43.9%    5.7%     6.4%             52.4%    45.5%    2.1%     6.9%             -0.4%     1565
Columbia         46.9%    45.8%    7.3%     1.1%             54.4%    43.5%    2.1%     10.9%            -9.8%     -829
Cortland         47.1%    47.1%    5.9%     0.0%             47.1%    51.0%    1.9%     -3.8%             3.8%     1498
Delaware         41.5%    53.2%    5.2%     -11.7%           39.8%    57.7%    2.4%     -17.9%            6.2%     1628
Dutchess         46.7%    47.1%    6.2%     -0.4%            46.5%    51.9%    1.6%     -5.3%             4.9%     9666
 
Erie             56.8%    37.4%    5.9%     19.4%            56.2%    41.6%    2.2%     14.6%             4.8%     27705
Essex            44.2%    49.0%    6.8%     -4.8%            45.7%    52.2%    2.2%     -6.5%             1.7%     912
Franklin         50.1%    44.6%    5.3%     5.5%             51.4%    46.7%    1.9%     4.7%              0.8%     678
Fulton           42.7%    53.1%    4.2%     -10.5%           41.3%    56.8%    1.9%     -15.6%            5.1%     644
Genesee          39.8%    54.9%    5.2%     -15.1%           37.2%    61.2%    1.6%     -23.9%            8.9%     1393
 
Greene           40.0%    53.8%    6.2%     -13.7%           39.2%    58.8%    2.0%     -19.7%            5.9%     3237
Hamilton         28.8%    64.3%    6.9%     -35.5%           32.2%    66.2%    1.6%     -34.0%           -1.5%     131
Herkimer         44.1%    51.1%    4.8%     -7.1%            41.0%    57.0%    2.0%     -16.0%            9.0%     1910
Jefferson        42.3%    47.4%    10.3%    -5.1%            43.2%    54.7%    2.1%     -11.5%            6.4%     6343
Lewis            39.7%    56.0%    4.3%     -16.4%           40.3%    57.9%    1.9%     -17.6%            1.3%     575
 
Livingston       38.6%    55.9%    5.5%     -17.3%           38.1%    59.8%    2.1%     -21.7%            4.3%     3363
Madison          42.5%    52.3%    5.2%     -9.8%            43.0%    55.2%    1.8%     -12.2%            2.4%     1686
Manhattan        78.5%    15.1%    6.3%     63.4%            81.9%    16.7%    1.4%     65.3%            -1.9%     16421
Monroe           50.8%    44.1%    5.1%     6.6%             50.4%    48.1%    1.6%     2.3%              4.4%     26322
Montgomery       49.3%    46.9%    3.8%     2.5%             44.5%    53.6%    1.9%     -9.1%             11.6%    1388
 
Nassau           57.6%    38.7%    3.7%     18.9%            52.3%    46.7%    1.0%     5.6%              13.3%    64523
Niagara          51.7%    43.3%    5.0%     8.4%             49.2%    48.9%    1.9%     0.3%              8.1%     5919
Oneida           45.4%    49.3%    5.3%     -3.9%            42.3%    55.4%    2.3%     -13.1%            9.2%     6538
Onondaga         53.8%    40.9%    5.3%     12.9%            54.1%    44.1%    1.8%     9.9%              3.0%     10102
Ontario          43.6%    51.4%    5.0%     -7.9%            42.0%    56.4%    1.6%     -14.4%            6.6%     4541
 
Orange           45.8%    49.6%    4.6%     -3.8%            43.6%    55.0%    1.3%     -11.4%            7.6%     16027
Orleans          37.8%    58.0%    4.2%     -20.2%           35.5%    63.0%    1.6%     -27.5%            7.3%     1150
Oswego           47.0%    48.1%    4.9%     -1.0%            47.4%    50.6%    2.0%     -3.1%             2.1%     2869
Otsego           45.4%    48.1%    6.5%     -2.7%            46.8%    51.2%    2.0%     -4.4%             1.7%     1252
Putnam           43.5%    51.0%    5.5%     -7.4%            41.3%    57.5%    1.1%     -16.2%            8.8%     4697
 
Queens           74.2%    22.5%    3.2%     51.7%            71.2%    28.0%    0.8%     43.2%             8.5%     41325
Rensselaer       50.9%    43.2%    6.0%     7.7%             49.4%    48.4%    2.2%     1.0%              6.7%     4817
Rockland         55.9%    40.2%    3.9%     15.7%            48.7%    49.8%    1.5%     -1.1%             16.8%    13655
St Lawrence      53.9%    41.2%    4.9%     12.7%            54.6%    43.5%    1.9%     11.0%             1.6%     1319
Saratoga         45.4%    50.0%    4.7%     -4.6%            45.2%    53.0%    1.8%     -7.8%             3.2%     8344
 
Schenectady      53.2%    41.7%    5.2%     11.5%            51.5%    46.7%    1.8%     4.9%              6.6%     4008
Schoharie        39.3%    55.5%    5.2%     -16.1%           38.6%    59.4%    2.1%     -20.8%            4.7%     941
Schuyler         40.4%    53.8%    5.9%     -13.4%           40.0%    58.1%    1.9%     -18.1%            4.7%     721
Seneca           47.9%    46.7%    5.4%     1.3%             45.5%    52.5%    2.1%     -7.0%             8.2%     1277
Staten Island    51.8%    45.2%    3.1%     6.6%             42.3%    56.9%    0.8%    -14.7%            21.3%    24335
 
Steuben          36.3%    59.4%    4.3%     -23.2%           33.9%    64.4%    1.7%     -30.5%            7.3%     2906
Suffolk          53.2%    41.8%    5.0%     11.4%            49.1%    48.8%    2.1%     0.3%              11.2%    77671
Sullivan         49.8%    45.0%    5.2%     4.7%             48.5%    49.5%    1.9%     -1.0%             5.8%     2513
Tioga            40.8%    54.5%    4.7%     -13.6%           40.3%    58.0%    1.7%     -17.7%            4.1%     1447
Tompkins         54.0%    33.7%    12.3%    20.3%            63.9%    33.7%    2.4%     30.2%            -10.0%    627
 
Ulster           48.2%    43.5%    8.3%     4.6%             54.3%    43.4%    2.3%      10.9%            -6.3%     4831
Warren           43.2%    51.7%    5.1%     -8.6%            42.9%    55.1%    2.0%     -12.2%            3.7%     1913
Washington       41.1%    53.1%    5.7%     -12.0%           42.1%    55.6%    2.4%     -13.5%            1.5%     1351
Wayne            39.2%    56.4%    4.4%     -17.2%           38.0%    60.4%    1.7%     -22.4%            5.2%     2857
Westchester      58.4%    37.4%    4.2%     21.0%            57.9%    40.7%    1.5%      17.2%            3.8%     38923
 
Wyoming          35.0%    60.4%    4.6%     -25.4%           33.7%    64.9%    1.4%     -31.2%            5.8%     919
Yates            39.5%    55.4%    5.1%     -15.9%           38.8%    59.6%    1.6%     -20.8%            4.9%     735