Dec. 15, 2008
Obama's True Vote (V) is a function of his share of
returning Kerry, Bush and Other third-party voters. Given that the Final
National Exit Poll percentage mix of new and returning Kerry and Bush voters is
implausible (the Final is always forced to match the recorded vote), the
Election Calculator (EC) model computes a plausible mix based on the 2004
recorded and uncounted vote, mortality and voter turnout in 2008. Using Final
NEP Obama and McCain shares of returning voters, we can easily calculate the
True Vote.
Obama's True Vote (V) is a simple calculation: V = RK*KP+
RB*BP + RO*OP
RK is Obama’s share of returning Kerry voters; RB his share
of Bush voters, and RO his share of other third-party voters;
KP is the returning Kerry percentage share of the 2008 vote,
BP is the returning Bush share and OP the returning other voter share.
Since the NEP vote shares have a margin of error, it is
instructive to view the effects of incremental changes in Obama’s share of
returning voters on his total vote. The sensitivity
analysis shows that Obama did much better than the 52.8-45.7% recorded vote
(69.28-59.83m) and may very well have won by more than 20
million votes.
The EC base case scenario assumes the NEP vote shares. But
the Final NEP returning voter mix (46% Bush; 37% Kerry; 4% Other) is
impossible. Bush voters could not have comprised 46% (60.3m) of the votes in
2008. Bush had 62 million recorded votes. Approximately 3m died and 3m did not
return to vote in 2008, therefore no more than 56m could have voted in 2008;
the Final overstated returning Bush voters by 4 million. On the other hand, if
the unadjusted exit polls represented the True Vote, then Bush had 57.5m votes.
No more than 51.5m could have voted in 2008 and the Final overstated returning
Bush voters by almost 9 million.
Similarly 2004 third-party voters could not have comprised 4% or 5.2m of the 2008 electorate since there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004. The Final NEP overstated third-party voter participation by 4 million!
The EC calculated a plausible mix for two scenarios. The
first is based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%); the second on the
unadjusted 2004 exit poll, won by Kerry (52-47%). The number of returning 2004
voters was calculated using 2004 voter mortality, uncounted votes and turnout
rates. Obama won the recorded vote scenario by 75.2-57.7m (55.7-42.7%) and the
unadjusted exit poll scenario by 77.7-55.2m (57.5-40.9%).
Final 2008 National Exit
Poll
Actual NEP: 2004 returning voter
mix forced to match the 2008 recorded vote
Obama margin: 9.3m
|
Implied |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Vote |
DNV |
17.0 |
13% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
12.1 |
4.6 |
0.3 |
|
42.5% |
Kerry |
48.5 |
37% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
43.2 |
4.4 |
1.0 |
|
52.9% |
Bush |
60.3 |
46% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
10.2 |
49.4 |
0.6 |
|
4.6% |
Other |
5.2 |
4% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
3.5 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
114.0 |
Total |
131.1 |
100% |
52.62% |
45.52% |
1.86% |
68.97 |
59.66 |
2.44 |
These Final 2008 NEP Scenarios are based on a plausible 2004 returning voter mix:
122.3m recorded and 3.45m uncounted votes, 1.2% annual mortality, 113.76m returning 2004 voters (95% turnout).
Scenario 1: 2004
recorded vote
a) Obama wins by 17.5m: 75.2-57.7 (55.6-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 134.7m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.7m: 72.3-56.6 (55.2-43.2%) assuming no uncounted votes.
|
Recorded |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Vote |
DNV |
21.41 |
15.8% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
15.2 |
5.8 |
0.4 |
|
48.27% |
Kerry |
55.72 |
41.2% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
49.6 |
5.0 |
1.1 |
|
50.73% |
Bush |
56.86 |
42.1% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.7 |
46.6 |
0.6 |
|
1.00% |
Other |
1.14 |
0.8% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
Total |
135.12 |
100.0% |
55.66% |
42.69% |
1.65% |
75.21 |
57.69 |
2.23 |
Scenario
2: 2004 unadjusted state exit poll (WPE)
a) Obama wins by 22.5m: 77.7-55.2 (57.5-40.9%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.7m: 74.8-54.1 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.
|
Unadj. |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Exit Poll |
DNV |
21.41 |
15.8% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
15.2 |
5.8 |
0.43 |
|
52.0% |
Kerry |
59.13 |
43.8% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
52.6 |
5.3 |
1.18 |
|
47.0% |
Bush |
53.44 |
39.6% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.1 |
43.8 |
0.53 |
|
1.0% |
Other |
1.14 |
0.8% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.11 |
|
|
Total |
135.12 |
100% |
57.48% |
40.85% |
1.67% |
77.67 |
55.20 |
2.26 |
2008 Final
NEP
Obama vote
shares (base case):
Kerry 89%
Bush 17%
(13-17% of returning Bush, 85-93%
of Kerry, 61-81% of New voters)
Scenario I
Returning voter mix for recorded
vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%)
Share Obama vote share
of Bush Low Med High
13% 50.7
54.0 57.2%
15 51.6 54.8
58.0
17 52.4 55.6
58.9
Scenario II
Returning voter mix for unadjusted
(WPE) exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%)
Share Obama vote share
of Bush Low Med High
13% 52.5 55.9 59.2%
15 53.3 56.6
60.0
17 54.1 57.4
60.8
|
Scenario I |
|
|
|
|
|
Scenario II |
|
|
|
|
||
|
2004 Recorded Vote |
|
|
|
|
2004 Unadjusted Exit
Poll |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
Obama Share of New Voters |
|
|
|
Share |
|
Obama Share of New Voters |
|
|||
|
of Kerry |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
of Kerry |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
Obama share of Bush: |
13.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
|
|
93% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
|
93% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
|
91% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
|
91% |
55.2% |
56.0% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
|
89% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
|
89% |
54.3% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
|
87% |
51.6% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
53.9% |
54.7% |
|
87% |
53.4% |
54.2% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
|
85% |
50.7% |
51.5% |
52.3% |
53.1% |
53.9% |
|
85% |
52.6% |
53.4% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
93% |
13.1 |
15.3 |
17.4 |
19.6 |
21.7 |
|
93% |
18.6 |
20.8 |
22.9 |
25.1 |
27.2 |
|
91% |
10.9 |
13.1 |
15.2 |
17.3 |
19.5 |
|
91% |
16.3 |
18.4 |
20.6 |
22.7 |
24.8 |
|
89% |
8.7 |
10.8 |
13.0 |
15.1 |
17.2 |
|
89% |
13.9 |
16.1 |
18.2 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
|
87% |
6.5 |
8.6 |
10.7 |
12.9 |
15.0 |
|
87% |
11.5 |
13.7 |
15.8 |
18.0 |
20.1 |
|
85% |
4.2 |
6.4 |
8.5 |
10.7 |
12.8 |
|
85% |
9.2 |
11.3 |
13.5 |
15.6 |
17.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama share of Bush: |
15.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
|
|
93% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
|
93% |
56.9% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
60.0% |
|
91% |
54.1% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
|
91% |
56.0% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.1% |
|
89% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
|
89% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
|
87% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
|
87% |
54.2% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
|
85% |
51.6% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
|
85% |
53.4% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
93% |
18.8 |
20.9 |
23.0 |
25.2 |
27.3 |
|
93% |
20.8 |
22.9 |
25.1 |
27.2 |
29.3 |
|
91% |
17.1 |
19.3 |
21.4 |
23.5 |
25.7 |
|
91% |
18.4 |
20.6 |
22.7 |
24.8 |
27.0 |
|
89% |
15.5 |
17.6 |
19.7 |
21.9 |
24.0 |
|
89% |
16.0 |
18.2 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
24.6 |
|
87% |
12.2 |
14.3 |
16.5 |
18.6 |
20.7 |
|
87% |
13.7 |
15.8 |
18.0 |
20.1 |
22.2 |
|
85% |
10.5 |
12.7 |
14.8 |
16.9 |
19.1 |
|
85% |
11.3 |
13.5 |
15.6 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Base Case |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama share of Bush: |
17.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
|
|
|
93% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
|
93% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
60.0% |
60.8% |
|
91% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
|
91% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.1% |
59.9% |
|
89% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.2% |
|
89% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
87% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
|
87% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
58.2% |
|
85% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
|
85% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
|
|
|
93% |
17.7 |
19.8 |
22.0 |
24.1 |
26.3 |
|
93% |
22.9 |
25.1 |
27.2 |
29.3 |
31.5 |
|
91% |
15.5 |
17.6 |
19.7 |
21.9 |
24.0 |
|
91% |
20.6 |
22.7 |
24.8 |
27.0 |
29.1 |
|
89% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
21.8 |
|
89% |
18.2 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
24.6 |
26.7 |
|
87% |
11.0 |
13.1 |
15.3 |
17.4 |
19.6 |
|
87% |
15.8 |
18.0 |
20.1 |
22.2 |
24.4 |
|
85% |
8.8 |
10.9 |
13.1 |
15.2 |
17.3 |
|
85% |
13.5 |
15.6 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.0 |
