An Obama True Vote Landslide in 3-D

 

TruthIsAll

 

Dec. 15, 2008

 

Obama's True Vote (V) is a function of his share of returning Kerry, Bush and Other third-party voters. Given that the Final National Exit Poll percentage mix of new and returning Kerry and Bush voters is implausible (the Final is always forced to match the recorded vote), the Election Calculator (EC) model computes a plausible mix based on the 2004 recorded and uncounted vote, mortality and voter turnout in 2008. Using Final NEP Obama and McCain shares of returning voters, we can easily calculate the True Vote.

 

Obama's True Vote (V) is a simple calculation: V = RK*KP+ RB*BP + RO*OP

RK is Obama’s share of returning Kerry voters; RB his share of Bush voters, and RO his share of other third-party voters;

KP is the returning Kerry percentage share of the 2008 vote, BP is the returning Bush share and OP the returning other voter share.

 

Since the NEP vote shares have a margin of error, it is instructive to view the effects of incremental changes in Obama’s share of returning voters on his total vote. The sensitivity analysis shows that Obama did much better than the 52.8-45.7% recorded vote (69.28-59.83m) and may very well have won by more than 20 million votes.

 

The EC base case scenario assumes the NEP vote shares. But the Final NEP returning voter mix (46% Bush; 37% Kerry; 4% Other) is impossible. Bush voters could not have comprised 46% (60.3m) of the votes in 2008. Bush had 62 million recorded votes. Approximately 3m died and 3m did not return to vote in 2008, therefore no more than 56m could have voted in 2008; the Final overstated returning Bush voters by 4 million. On the other hand, if the unadjusted exit polls represented the True Vote, then Bush had 57.5m votes. No more than 51.5m could have voted in 2008 and the Final overstated returning Bush voters by almost 9 million.

 

Similarly 2004 third-party voters could not have comprised 4% or 5.2m of the 2008 electorate since there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004. The Final NEP overstated third-party voter participation by 4 million!

 

The EC calculated a plausible mix for two scenarios. The first is based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%); the second on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll, won by Kerry (52-47%). The number of returning 2004 voters was calculated using 2004 voter mortality, uncounted votes and turnout rates. Obama won the recorded vote scenario by 75.2-57.7m (55.7-42.7%) and the unadjusted exit poll scenario by 77.7-55.2m (57.5-40.9%).

 

 

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

 

Actual NEP: 2004 returning voter mix forced to match the 2008 recorded vote

Obama margin: 9.3m

 

Implied

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

17.0

13%

71%

27%

2%

12.1

4.6

0.3

42.5%

Kerry

48.5

37%

89%

9%

2%

43.2

4.4

1.0

52.9%

Bush

60.3

46%

17%

82%

1%

10.2

49.4

0.6

4.6%

Other

5.2

4%

66%

24%

10%

3.5

1.3

0.5

114.0

Total

131.1

100%

52.62%

45.52%

1.86%

68.97

59.66

2.44

                                                                                                                                                                  

 

These Final 2008 NEP Scenarios are based on a plausible 2004 returning voter mix:

122.3m recorded and 3.45m uncounted votes, 1.2% annual mortality, 113.76m returning 2004 voters (95% turnout).

 

Scenario 1: 2004 recorded vote

 

a) Obama wins by 17.5m: 75.2-57.7 (55.6-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 134.7m cast).

b) Obama wins by 15.7m: 72.3-56.6 (55.2-43.2%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

 

Recorded

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

21.41

15.8%

71%

27%

2%

15.2

5.8

0.4

48.27%

Kerry

55.72

41.2%

89%

9%

2%

49.6

5.0

1.1

50.73%

Bush

56.86

42.1%

17%

82%

1%

9.7

46.6

0.6

1.00%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.1

 

Total

135.12

100.0%

55.66%

42.69%

1.65%

75.21

57.69

2.23

 

 

 

Scenario 2: 2004 unadjusted state exit poll (WPE)

 

a) Obama wins by 22.5m: 77.7-55.2 (57.5-40.9%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.

b) Obama wins by 20.7m: 74.8-54.1 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

Unadj.

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Exit Poll

DNV

21.41

15.8%

71%

27%

2%

15.2

5.8

0.43

52.0%

Kerry

59.13

43.8%

89%

9%

2%

52.6

5.3

1.18

47.0%

Bush

53.44

39.6%

17%

82%

1%

9.1

43.8

0.53

1.0%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.11

 

Total

135.12

100%

57.48%

40.85%

1.67%

77.67

55.20

2.26

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

 

2008 Final NEP

Obama vote shares (base case):

New     71%

Kerry   89%        

Bush    17%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

 

Obama vote share range:

(13-17% of returning Bush, 85-93% of Kerry, 61-81% of New voters)

 

Scenario I

Returning voter mix for recorded vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%)

 

Share        Obama vote share

of Bush     Low  Med  High

    13%        50.7   54.0   57.2%

    15           51.6   54.8   58.0

    17           52.4   55.6   58.9

 

Scenario II

Returning voter mix for unadjusted (WPE) exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%)

 

Share        Obama vote share

of Bush     Low  Med  High

    13%        52.5   55.9   59.2%

    15           53.3   56.6   60.0

    17           54.1   57.4   60.8

 

 

Scenario I

 

 

 

 

 

Scenario II

 

 

 

 

2004 Recorded Vote

 

 

 

 

2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share

 

Obama Share of New Voters

 

 

 

      Share

 

Obama Share of New Voters

 

of Kerry

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

 

of   Kerry

61%

66%

71%

76%

81%

 

Obama share of Bush:

13.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Share

 

 

93%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

56.4%

57.2%

 

93%

56.1%

56.9%

57.6%

58.4%

59.2%

91%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

56.4%

 

91%

55.2%

56.0%

56.8%

57.6%

58.4%

89%

52.4%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

 

89%

54.3%

55.1%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

87%

51.6%

52.4%

53.2%

53.9%

54.7%

 

87%

53.4%

54.2%

55.0%

55.8%

56.6%

85%

50.7%

51.5%

52.3%

53.1%

53.9%

 

85%

52.6%

53.4%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

93%

13.1

15.3

17.4

19.6

21.7

 

93%

18.6

20.8

22.9

25.1

27.2

91%

10.9

13.1

15.2

17.3

19.5

 

91%

16.3

18.4

20.6

22.7

24.8

89%

8.7

10.8

13.0

15.1

17.2

 

89%

13.9

16.1

18.2

20.3

22.5

87%

6.5

8.6

10.7

12.9

15.0

 

87%

11.5

13.7

15.8

18.0

20.1

85%

4.2

6.4

8.5

10.7

12.8

 

85%

9.2

11.3

13.5

15.6

17.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama share of Bush:

15.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Share

 

 

93%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

 

93%

56.9%

57.6%

58.4%

59.2%

60.0%

91%

54.1%

54.8%

55.6%

56.4%

57.2%

 

91%

56.0%

56.8%

57.6%

58.4%

59.1%

89%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

56.4%

 

89%

55.1%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

58.3%

87%

52.4%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

 

87%

54.2%

55.0%

55.8%

56.6%

57.4%

85%

51.6%

52.4%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

 

85%

53.4%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

93%

18.8

20.9

23.0

25.2

27.3

 

93%

20.8

22.9

25.1

27.2

29.3

91%

17.1

19.3

21.4

23.5

25.7

 

91%

18.4

20.6

22.7

24.8

27.0

89%

15.5

17.6

19.7

21.9

24.0

 

89%

16.0

18.2

20.3

22.5

24.6

87%

12.2

14.3

16.5

18.6

20.7

 

87%

13.7

15.8

18.0

20.1

22.2

85%

10.5

12.7

14.8

16.9

19.1

 

85%

11.3

13.5

15.6

17.7

19.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Base Case

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama share of Bush:

17.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Share

 

 

93%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

58.9%

 

93%

57.6%

58.4%

59.2%

60.0%

60.8%

91%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

58.1%

 

91%

56.8%

57.6%

58.4%

59.1%

59.9%

89%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.2%

 

89%

55.9%

56.7%

57.5%

58.3%

59.1%

87%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

56.4%

 

87%

55.0%

55.8%

56.6%

57.4%

58.2%

85%

52.4%

53.2%

54.0%

54.8%

55.6%

 

85%

54.1%

54.9%

55.7%

56.5%

57.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

93%

17.7

19.8

22.0

24.1

26.3

 

93%

22.9

25.1

27.2

29.3

31.5

91%

15.5

17.6

19.7

21.9

24.0

 

91%

20.6

22.7

24.8

27.0

29.1

89%

13.2

15.4

17.5

19.7

21.8

 

89%

18.2

20.3

22.5

24.6

26.7

87%

11.0

13.1

15.3

17.4

19.6

 

87%

15.8

18.0

20.1

22.2

24.4

85%

8.8

10.9

13.1

15.2

17.3

 

85%

13.5

15.6

17.7

19.9

22.0