Party ID: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 
TruthIsAll
 

Among the many myths surrounding the 2004 election was Karl Rove’s vaunted effort in mobilizing the Christian fundamentalist vote. The media once again succumbed to the BushCo propaganda and happily promoted the fiction to explain the Bush “mandate”. But it’s an established fact that the Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the GOP. There were approximately 26 million new voters and Kerry won 57-61% of them. About three million ballots (75% of them for Kerry) were never counted. And probably one million disenfranchised Democrats. What the GOP calls “voter fraud” is just another scam in their arsenal of election fraud.

The 12:22am National Exit Poll update had a Party ID mix of 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 27% Independents. The corresponding Kerry vote shares were 91%, 7% and 52%. In the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote) the mix was changed to 37/37/26 with Kerry vote shares of 89%, 6% and 49% respectively. The adjustments turned Kerry's 51-48% win into a 51-48% loss.

But the changes to the weights and vote shares left footprints which exposed the fraud. A Pew study shows that the Democrats have held a steady 4-5 point Party ID advantage in the four presidential elections since 1992. And the 1992-2004 Final National Exit polls indicate that the Democratic candidate won first-time voters by an average 14% margin. It’s only logical to conclude that a solid majority of first-timers were Democrats.

So why should we believe the 3% red-shift to the Republicans from the 12:22am NEP to the Final?

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. The Final Exit Poll does not pass the plausibility test. Since it was forced to match the recorded vote, we must reject the fictional narrative of a Bush victory. To believe that Bush won the election despite the following facts, one must suspend reality and believe the Rovian faith-based mathematics.

1) The first-time voter trend has been heavily Democratic since 1992 (14% average margin)

2) Gore won the popular vote by more than his 540,000 official margin (5% of total votes cast were uncounted)

3) There were over 15m first-time voters and Kerry won them by 55-43%

4) Kerry’s share of Democratic voters was 3% greater than Gore’s share
5) Kerry’s share of Independent voters was 3% greater than Gore’s share

6) Final Exit Poll weights and vote shares were forced to match the official vote.

7) The Democrats have held a steady 4-5% lead in Party ID in every election since 1992.

Journalist Ron Suskind relates a chilling conversation he had in 2002 with a senior aide to George W. Bush, who taunted Suskind for being a person from “what we call the reality-based community.”

The Bush aide said this “reality-based community” consists of people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” Suskind nodded in agreement and muttered something favorable about the principles of the Enlightenment, only to be cut off by the aide.

“That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” the Bush aide told the journalist. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to study what we do.”

Final National Exit Poll

Party ID  Historical Trend
		1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	Chg
Republicans	Dem	6	9	9	7	8	10	13	8	6	(2)
	Rep	93	90	86	92	91	73	80	91	93	2
	Ind	--	--	4	--	--	17	6	1	1	0
Independents	Dem	33	43	30	36	43	38	43	45	49	4
	Rep	65	54	55	63	55	32	35	47	48	1
	Ind	--	--	12	--	--	30	17	8	3	(5)
Democrats	Dem	33	77	67	74	82	77	84	86	89	3
	Rep	64	22	26	25	17	10	10	11	11	0
	Ind	--	--	6	--	--	13	5	3	0	(3)

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First-time Voters 2004F: 2:04pm Final NEP (13660 respondents) 2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents) ……… 84 88 92 96 00 2004P 2004F Dem 38 47 46 54 52 55 53 Rep 61 51 32 34 43 43 46
	2004	Mix	Total	Kerry	Votes	Bush	Votes
	1st-time	11%	13.453	55%	7.40	43%	5.78
	Other	6%	7.338	61%	4.45	37%	2.74
	DNV2k	17%	20.791	57%	11.85	41%	8.52

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2004 National Exit Poll

Party-ID Timeline

 
Updated 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final
Sampled 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change
 
 Category Weight  Kerry Vote Share 
Dem 39 38 38 37 -1 90 90 90 89 -1
Rep 36 36 35 37 +2  7 7 7  6 -1
Ind 25 26 27 26 -1 52 52 52 49 -3
 
Share 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
Votes  61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55
 
 
Vote Share Calculation
 12:22am  Final 
         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other
Dem      38%      91%      9%       0%               37%       89%      11%      0%
Rep      35%      7%       93%      0%               37%       6%       93%      1%
Ind      27%      52%      44%      4%               26%      49%      49%      2%
 
Share    100%     51.07%   47.85%   1.08%            100%    47.89%   51.22%   0.89%
Votes    122.30   62.46    58.52    1.32             122.3   58.57    62.64    1.09
 

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True Vote Estimate 
(adjusted shares)
 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other 
Dem 47.78 38.0% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0% 
Rep  44.01 35.0% 8.0% 91.0% 1.0% 
Ind 33.95 27.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0% 
 
Share Total  100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% 
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.01 58.47 1.26 
 
 
 
Sensitivity Analysis
(True Vote adjusted shares)
 
  Kerry share of Democrats  
Dem ID 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0%
 Kerry Vote Share
35% 48.0% 48.4% 48.7% 49.1% 49.4% 49.8% 50.1%
36% 48.9% 49.2% 49.6% 50.0% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0%
37% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0%
38% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9%
39% 51.5% 51.9% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8%
40% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.3% 54.7%
 
 
 
Kerry Kerry share of Democrats  
share 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0%
of Ind Kerry Vote Share
49% 49.5% 49.9% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8%
50% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.6% 52.0%
51% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3%
52% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.6%
53% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.8%
54% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1%
 

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Ohio Exit Poll Timeline

The weights changed from 38D/37R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift.

With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.

 12:22am (1963) Final (2020) 
 Mix Votes Kerry Bush   Mix Kerry Bush 
Dem 38% 2.14 91% 8% 35% 90% 9%
Rep 37% 2.08 6% 94% 40% 6% 94%
Ind 25% 1.41 60% 39% 25% 59% 40%
 
Total 51.80% 47.57% 48.65% 50.75%
 2.919 2.681 2.741 2.860

Florida General Exit Poll 
 
(2743 respondents) 
 Mix KERRY BUSH Other 
Dem 38 86 13 1 
Rep 39 7 92 1 
Ind 23 60 38 2 
Total 100 49.21 49.56 1.23 
 
True Vote 
(registration mix)
Dem 41.4 86 13 1 
Rep 37.8 7 92 1 
Ind 20.8 60 38 2 
Total 100 50.73 48.06 1.21