Party ID: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 
TruthIsAll
 

Among the many myths surrounding the 2004 election was Karl Rove’s vaunted effort in mobilizing the Christian fundamentalist vote. The media once again succumbed to the BushCo propaganda and happily promoted the fiction to explain the Bush “mandate”.  But it’s an established fact that the Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the GOP. There were approximately 26 million new voters and Kerry won 57-61% of them.  About three million ballots (75% of them for Kerry) were never counted. And probably one million disenfranchised Democrats. What the GOP calls “voter fraud” is just another scam in their arsenal of election fraud.

 

The 12:22am National Exit Poll update had a Party ID mix of 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 27% Independents. The corresponding Kerry vote shares were 91%, 7% and 52%. In the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote) the mix was changed to 37/37/26 with Kerry vote shares of 89%, 6% and 49% respectively. The adjustments turned Kerry's 51-48% win into a 51-48% loss. 

 

But the changes to the weights and vote shares left footprints which exposed the fraud. A Pew study shows that the Democrats have held a steady 4-5 point Party ID advantage in the four presidential elections since 1992. And the 1992-2004 Final National Exit polls indicate that the Democratic candidate won first-time voters by an average 14% margin.  It’s only logical to conclude that a solid majority of first-timers were Democrats.

 

So why should we believe the 3% red-shift to the Republicans from the 12:22am NEP to the Final?

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. The Final Exit Poll does not pass the plausibility test. Since it was forced to match the recorded vote, we must reject the fictional narrative of a Bush victory. To believe that Bush won the election despite the following facts, one must suspend reality and believe the Rovian faith-based mathematics.

 

1) The first-time voter trend has been heavily Democratic since 1992 (14% average margin)

2) Gore won the popular vote by more than his 540,000 official margin (5% of total votes cast were uncounted)

3) There were over 15m first-time voters and Kerry won them by 55-43%

4) Kerry’s share of Democratic voters was 3% greater than Gore’s share
5) Kerry’s share of Independent voters was 3% greater than Gore’s share

6)  Final Exit Poll weights and vote shares were forced to match the official vote.

7) The Democrats have held a steady 4-5% lead in Party ID in every election since 1992.

 

Journalist Ron Suskind relates a chilling conversation he had in 2002 with a senior aide to George W. Bush, who taunted Suskind for being a person from “what we call the reality-based community.”

 

The Bush aide said this “reality-based community” consists of people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” Suskind nodded in agreement and muttered something favorable about the principles of the Enlightenment, only to be cut off by the aide.

 

“That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” the Bush aide told the journalist. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to study what we do.”


 

Final National Exit Poll

Party ID  Historical Trend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Chg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republicans

Dem

6

9

9

7

8

10

13

8

6

(2)

 

 

 

 

Rep

93

90

86

92

91

73

80

91

93

2

 

 

 

 

Ind

--

--

4

--

--

17

6

1

1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independents

Dem

33

43

30

36

43

38

43

45

49

4

 

 

 

 

Rep

65

54

55

63

55

32

35

47

48

1

 

 

 

 

Ind

--

--

12

--

--

30

17

8

3

(5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats

Dem

33

77

67

74

82

77

84

86

89

3

 

 

 

 

Rep

64

22

26

25

17

10

10

11

11

0

 

 

 

 

Ind

--

--

6

--

--

13

5

3

0

(3)

 

 

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

First-time Voters


2004F: 2:04pm Final NEP (13660 respondents)
2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)

………    84   88  92  96   00   2004P  2004F
Dem    38   47  46  54   52     55   53
Rep    61   51  32  34   43     43   46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Mix

Total

Kerry

Votes   

Bush

Votes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st-time

11%

13.453

55%

7.40

43%

5.78

 

 

Other

6%

7.338

61%

4.45

37%

2.74

 

 

DNV2k

17%

20.791

57%

11.85

41%

8.52

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

2004 National Exit Poll

 

Party-ID Timeline

 
Updated  3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am Final            3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am   Final
Sampled  8349     11027    13047    13660 Change     8349     11027    13047    13660 Change
                                                                                       
                 Category Weight                             Kerry Vote Share          
Dem      39      38       38       37   -1          90       90       90       89      -1
Rep      36      36       35       37   +2           7       7        7         6      -1
Ind      25      26       27       26   -1          52       52       52       49      -3
 
Share   100      100      100      100              50.62    50.24    50.69    47.89
Votes                                               61.89    61.42    61.97    58.55
 
 
Vote Share Calculation
          12:22am                                    Final  
         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other
Dem      38%      91%      9%       0%               37%       89%      11%      0%
Rep      35%      7%       93%      0%               37%       6%       93%      1%
Ind      27%      52%      44%      4%               26%       49%      49%      2%
                                                                                                                            
Share    100%     51.07%   47.85%   1.08%            100%    47.89%   51.22%   0.89%
Votes    122.30   62.46    58.52    1.32             122.3   58.57    62.64    1.09
 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 
True Vote Estimate  
(adjusted shares)
                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Dem              47.78    38.0%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%     
Rep              44.01    35.0%    8.0%     91.0%    1.0%     
Ind              33.95    27.0%    56.0%    43.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.01    58.47    1.26     
                                                             
 
 
Sensitivity Analysis
(True Vote adjusted shares)
 
                          Kerry share of Democrats                                      
Dem ID   86.0%    87.0%    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%
                          Kerry Vote Share
35%      48.0%    48.4%    48.7%    49.1%    49.4%    49.8%    50.1%
36%      48.9%    49.2%    49.6%    50.0%    50.3%    50.7%    51.0%
37%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%
38%      50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.9%
39%      51.5%    51.9%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4%    53.8%
40%      52.3%    52.7%    53.1%    53.5%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%
                                                             
 
 
Kerry                      Kerry share of Democrats                                    
share    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%    93.0%    94.0%
of Ind                     Kerry Vote Share
49%      49.5%    49.9%    50.2%    50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%
50%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.3%    51.6%    52.0%
51%      50.0%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%
52%      50.3%    50.7%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%
53%      50.6%    50.9%    51.3%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.8%
54%      50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%    52.3%    52.7%    53.1%
                                                             

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 
 

 

Ohio Exit Poll Timeline

 

The weights changed from 38D/37R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift.

With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.

 

                 12:22am (1963)                     Final (2020)                                
         Mix     Votes   Kerry   Bush                Mix   Kerry   Bush  
Dem      38%      2.14     91%      8%               35%      90%      9%
Rep      37%      2.08     6%       94%              40%      6%       94%
Ind      25%      1.41     60%      39%              25%      59%      40%
 
Total                     51.80%   47.57%                    48.65%   50.75%
                          2.919    2.681                     2.741    2.860

 

 

Florida General Exit Poll                                           
 
(2743 respondents) 
         Mix      KERRY    BUSH     Other                     
Dem      38       86       13       1                
Rep      39       7        92       1        
Ind      23       60       38       2                
Total    100      49.21    49.56    1.23             
 
True Vote 
(registration mix)
Dem      41.4     86       13       1                         
Rep      37.8     7        92       1                         
Ind      20.8     60       38       2                         
Total    100      50.73    48.06    1.21