A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

TruthIsAll

12/17/09

In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a miracle over-the-head catch. He implicitly calculated the mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack of the bat using his built-in computer. Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory equation changes over time as the dynamics of the electorate change. The current election equation is a recursive function of the prior. It's all in the MATH.

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The returning voter mix is calculated using the following methods -depending on the objective:

Method 1: the Final NEP adjusts the mix to force a match to the recorded vote. This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the current, are fraud-free. The process of matching to the official vote required millions of Bush phantom voters in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeded 100%). The official vote counts cannot be correct.

Method 2: The mix is based on prior recorded votes and does not include millions of uncounted votes.

Method 3: (True Vote): The mix is based on total votes cast in the previous and current election.

Method 4 (Recursive True Vote): The problem of the Final National Exit Poll perpetuating endemic fraud is eliminated.

Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix. True vote shares cast in the previous election are reduced by voter mortality and turnout in the current election and new voters are added to the mix.

Except for the 2004 election, the model used Final National Exit Poll vote share. In 2004 the Final NEP vote shares were radically changed to match the official tally. Therefore, preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the True Vote.

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.

In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.

Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.

There were 6 million uncounted votes.

In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million landslide with 61.8% of the vote.

His True Vote share was 57%.

There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m.

He won the True Vote by 6 million with 53%.

There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.

In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.

There were 6.4 million uncounted votes.

In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.

There were 9.2 million uncounted votes.

In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.

Dukakis may have won a squeaker.

There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.

In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m.

He won the True Vote by over 20 million.

There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.

In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.

He won the True Vote by 16 million.

There were 8.7 million uncounted votes.

Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.

In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.

He won the True Vote by 4 million.

There were 5.4 million uncounted votes.

But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote.

In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.

Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.

It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.

There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes.

HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched?

In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m.

He won the True Vote by over 20 million.

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.

It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.

Calculated Democratic Vote Shares (1968-2008)

Vote Share Discrepancies (1968-2008)

True Vote vs. Recorded Vote Margin (1968-2008)

In mathematical terms,

True Vote for candidate k in election i is sum product of the mix and vote shares.
i = election index, where i=0,10 (1968 to 2008)
j = new and returning voter index (1= New, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)
k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)

Mix (i,k) = new and returning voter share (j) of election (i-1) total votes cast
NEP (i, j, k) = National Exit Poll (i) shares (k) of new and returning voters (j)
TV (i, k) = å Mix (i, j)* NEP(i, j, k), j=1,4; k =1,3

2008 True Vote

TV (10,1) = Obama = 58.0%

TV (10,2) = McCain = 40.3%

TV (10,3) = Other = 1.7%%

2004 Returning Voter shares of 2008 Total Cast

Mix (10,1) = DNV = 12.43%

Mix (10,2) = Kerry = 46.87%

Mix (10,3) = Bush = 39.52%

Mix (10,4) = Other = 1.18%

Obama shares of new and returning voters

NEP (10,1,1) = 71% of DNV

NEP (10,2,1) = 89% of Kerry

NEP (10,3,1) = 17% of Bush

NEP (10,4,1) = 66% of Other

McCain Vote Shares

NEP (10,1,2) = 27% of DNV

NEP (10,2,2) = 9% of Kerry

NEP (10,3,2) = 82% of Bush

NEP (10,4,2) = 24% of Other

Other Vote Shares

NEP (1,1,3) = 2% of DNV

NEP (1,2,3) = 2% of Kerry

NEP (1.3,3) = 1% of Bush

NEP (1.4,3) = 8% of Other

Final National Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote

		Summary 1972-2008
	Recorded				Margin	Returning Voter Mix				Turnout	to match
	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Error	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	52.6%	45.6%	0.24%	13.0%	37.0%	46.0%	4.0%	87%	103%	451%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	48.5%	51.1%	0.17%	17.0%	37.0%	43.0%	3.0%	93%	110%	98%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	48.4%	47.8%	-0.05%	18.0%	41.0%	33.0%	8.0%	96%	93%	92%
1996	49.2%	40.7%	49.3%	40.7%	-0.11%	13.0%	38.0%	31.0%	18.0%	86%	80%	80%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	43.0%	37.5%	0.00%	18.3%	28.0%	53.0%	0.7%	74%	119%	85%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	45.6%	53.3%	-0.05%	8.4%	33.0%	58.0%	0.6%	85%	103%	93%
1984	40.6%	58.8%	40.6%	58.7%	-0.12%	16.0%	34.0%	44.0%	6.0%	93%	98%	81%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	41.0%	50.7%	-0.01%	16.0%	42.0%	41.0%	1.0%	94%	95%	59%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	50.0%	48.1%	0.13%	14.5%	30.0%	53.0%	2.5%	91%	96%	89%
1972	36.2%	60.7%	36.2%	60.7%	0.04%	11.0%	35.0%	44.0%	10.0%	92%	113%	83%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	42.9%	43.6%	0.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Avg	45.3%	48.9%	45.3%	48.9%	0.0%	14.5%	35.5%	44.6%	5.4%	89%	101%	121%

True Vote – based on a plausible returning voter mix

	True Vote	Summary 1972-2008
	Recorded		True Vote		Margin	True Returning Voter Mix
	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Error	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	58.0%	40.3%	-10.5%	12.4%	46.9%	39.5%	1%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	53.5%	45.1%	-10.9%	17.9%	41.3%	37.7%	3%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	50.3%	46.0%	-3.9%	13.6%	46.1%	32.0%	8%
1996	49.2%	40.7%	53.4%	37.1%	-7.8%	9.4%	46.2%	27.9%	17%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	50.9%	30.8%	-14.6%	16.4%	41.5%	41.2%	1%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	49.6%	49.3%	-8.1%	11.0%	37.5%	50.9%	1%
1984	40.6%	58.8%	42.1%	57.2%	-3.1%	17.6%	35.2%	40.3%	7%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	42.7%	48.9%	-3.5%	16.8%	44.1%	37.6%	1%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	53.0%	45.2%	-5.7%	11.7%	35.7%	50.0%	3%
1972	36.2%	60.7%	40.4%	56.6%	-8.2%	19.5%	36.5%	33.7%	10%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	45.3%	41.9%	-4.1%	-	-	-	-
Avg	45.3%	48.9%	49.0%	45.3%	-7.3%	14.6%	41.1%	39.1%	5.2%

2008

Obama won the True Vote with a 58% share, a 23 million-vote landslide of epic proportions.

Likely voter (LV) pre-election polls are a subset of Registered voter (RV) polls.

LV polls exclude many newly registered voters.

In the last 5 elections, Democrats won new voters by a 15% average margin.

Obviously, LV polls understate the Democratic vote in high-turnout elections.

In 2004, there were 22 million new voters. Kerry won the group by nearly 20%.

Obama won new voters by 71-27%.

Pre-election LV tracking polls had Obama leading by 50-43% before undecided voters were allocated (UVA).

Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 53-40% before UVA.

With UVA, Obama was leading by 57-42%.

2008
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	97%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	2008	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	2004	2004	2004	2008	2008	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	17.1	13%	71%	27%	2%	-
Kerry	48.3%	62.2	59.0	56.1	54.4	48.6	37	89	9	2	87
Bush	50.7%	63.1	62.0	58.9	57.2	60.5	46	17	82	1	103
Other	1.0%	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.1	5.3	4	66	26	8	451
											Margin
Total		126.5	122.3	116.2	112.7	131.46	Share	52.6%	45.6%	1.8%	7.0%
							Vote	69.2	59.9	2.3	9.2
						Recorded	Share	52.9%	45.6%	1.5%	7.3%
						Vote	131.5	69.5	60.0	2.0	9.6

2008
Method: True Vote
				95%	97%
	True Vote	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	2008	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	2004	2004	2004	2008	2008	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	16.4	12%	71%	27%	2%	-
Kerry	53.5%	67.3	59.0	63.9	62.0	62.0	47	89	9	2	97
Bush	45.1%	56.7	62.0	53.9	52.3	52.3	40	17	82	1	97
Other	1.3%	1.7	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.6	1	66	26	8	97
											Margin
Total		125.7	122.3	119.4	115.9	132.31	Share	58.0%	40.3%	1.7%	17.8%
							Vote	76.8	53.3	2.2	23.5
						Recorded	Share	52.9%	45.6%	1.5%	7.3%
						Vote	131.5	69.5	60.0	2.0	9.6
						Diff				Error	-10.5%
Bush		Kerry Turnout				Share of		Share of DNV
Turnout	90%	92%	94%	96%	98%	Bush	69%	70%	71%	72%	73%
		Obama Share						Obama Share
90%	59.0%	59.1%	59.3%	59.5%	59.7%	19%	58.6%	58.7%	58.8%	59.0%	59.1%
92%	58.5%	58.7%	58.9%	59.1%	59.2%	18%	58.2%	58.3%	58.4%	58.6%	58.7%
94%	58.1%	58.3%	58.4%	58.6%	58.8%	17%	57.8%	57.9%	58.0%	58.2%	58.3%
96%	57.7%	57.8%	58.0%	58.2%	58.3%	16%	57.4%	57.5%	57.6%	57.8%	57.9%
98%	57.2%	57.4%	57.6%	57.7%	57.9%	15%	57.0%	57.1%	57.3%	57.4%	57.5%