National Exit Poll (1972-2008): Returning Voter Turnout Required to Match the Recorded Vote

TruthIsAll

Do the exit poll naysayers know any members of the "Dead Bush Voter Society"? If so, they might want to contact Robin Williams. He knows his math and is very familiar with the Dead Poets Society.

Apparently there are millions of them.

Let's review the National Exit Poll voter turnout percentages since 1972. It is important to keep in mind that the Final NEP is
***********ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE*************.

What do these impossible turnout percentages tell us about the RECORDED VOTE? Notice a pattern?
The corporate media would have us believe that:

In 2008, 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote (60.5 of 58.9m).
But only 87% of living Kerry voters returned (48.6 of 56.1).

In 2004, 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned to vote (52.6 of 47.9m).
But only 93% of living Gore voters returned (45.2 of 48.5).

In 1992, 119% of living Bush 1988 voters returned to vote (55.3 of 46.4m).
But only 74% of living Dukakis voters returned (29.2 of 39.7m).

In 1988, 103% of living Reagan/Bush 1984 voters returned to vote (53.1 of 51.7).
But only 85% of living Mondale voters returned (30.2 of 35.7).

But it’s not just Bush voters...
In 1972, 113% of living Nixon 1968 voters returned to vote (34.2 of 30.2).
But only 92% of living Humphrey voters returned (27.2 of 29.7m).

Percentage of Living Voters from the Previous Election Required to Vote in the
Current Election in order to Match the Recorded Vote based on Final National Exit Polls

* indicates incumbent
Year Democrat Republican Incumbent (advantage)
2008 87 103* Bush +16
2004 93 110* Bush +17
2000 96* 93 Clinton +3
1996 86* 80 Clinton +6
1992 74 119* Bush +45
1988 85 103* Reagan/Bush +18
1984 93 98* Reagan +5
1980 94* 95 Carter -1
1976 91 96* Ford +5
1972 92 113* Nixon +21

2008
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	97%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	2008	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	2004	2004	2004	2008	2008	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	17.1	13%	71	27	2	-
Kerry	48.3%	62.2	59.0	56.1	54.4	48.6	37%	89	9	2	87
Bush	50.7%	63.1	62.0	58.9	57.2	60.5	46%	17	82	1	103
Other	1.0%	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.1	5.3	4%	66	26	8	451
											Margin
Total		126.5	122.3	116.2	112.7	131.5	Share	52.6%	45.6%	1.8%	7.0%
							Vote	69.2	59.9	2.3	9.2
						Recorded	Share	52.9%	45.6%	1.5%	7.3%
						Vote	131.5	69.5	60.0	2.0	9.6
						Diff				Error	0.2%

2004
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	98%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	2004	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	2000	2000	2000	2004	2004	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	20.8	17%	54	45	1	-
Gore	48.4%	55.3	51.0	48.5	47.5	45.2	37%	90	10	0	93
Bush	47.9%	51.8	50.5	47.9	47.0	52.6	43%	9	91	0	110
Other	3.8%	4.0	4.0	3.8	3.7	3.7	3%	71	21	8	98
											Margin
Total		111.2	105.4	100.1	98.1	122.3	Share	48.5%	51.1%	0.4%	-2.6%
							Vote	59.3	62.5	0.5	-3.2
						Recorded	Share	48.3%	50.7%	1.0%	-2.5%
						Vote	122.3	59.0	62.0	1.2	-3.0
										Error	0.2%

2000
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	96%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	2000	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1996	1996	1996	2000	2000	Turnout	Mix	Gore	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	19.0	18%	52	43	5	-
Clinton	49.2%	54.0	47.4	45.0	43.2	43.2	41%	82	15	3	96
Dole	40.7%	41.2	39.2	37.2	35.7	34.8	33%	7	91	2	93
Perot	10.1%	9.9	9.7	9.2	8.8	8.4	8%	39	49	12	92
											Margin
Total		105.0	96.3	91.5	87.8	105.4	Share	48.4%	47.8%	3.8%	0.6%
							Vote	51.0	50.4	4.0	0.6
						Recorded	Share	48.4%	47.9%	3.8%	0.5%
						Vote	105.4	51.0	50.5	4.0	0.5
										Error	-0.1%

1996
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	88%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1996	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1992	1992	1992	1996	1996	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	12.5	13%	55	33	12	-
Clinton	43.0%	52.0	44.9	42.7	37.5	36.6	38%	85	9	6	86
Bush	37.4%	41.0	39.1	37.1	32.7	29.8	31%	15	82	3	80
Perot	19.5%	20.9	20.4	19.4	17.1	17.3	18%	32	42	26	89
											Margin
Total		113.9	104.4	99.2	87.3	96.3	Share	49.9%	40.7%	9.5%	9.2%
							Vote	48.0	39.2	9.1	8.8
						Recorded	Share	49.2%	40.7%	10.1%	8.5%
						Vote	96.3	47.4	39.2	9.7	8.2
										Error	-0.6%

1992
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	98%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1992	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1988	1988	1988	1992	1992	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	19.1	18%	46	25	29	-
Dukakis	45.6%	49.8	41.8	39.7	38.9	29.2	28%	83	5	12	74
Bush	53.4%	51.5	48.9	46.4	45.5	55.3	53%	21	59	20	119
Other	1.0%	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.7	1%	32	30	38	85
											Margin
Total		102.3	91.6	87.0	85.3	104.4	Share	43.0%	37.5%	19.5%	5.6%
							Vote	44.9	39.1	20.4	5.8
						Recorded	Share	43.0%	37.4%	19.5%	5.6%
						Vote	104.4	44.9	39.1	20.4	5.8
										Error	0.0%

1988
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	94%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1988	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1984	1984	1984	1988	1988	Turnout	Mix	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	7.7	8%	47	51	2	-
Mondale	40.6%	44.5	37.6	35.7	33.6	30.2	33%	92	7	1	85
Reagan	58.8%	56.7	54.5	51.7	48.6	53.1	58%	19	80	1	103
Other	0.7%	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	1%	49	50	1	93
											Margin
Total		101.9	92.7	88.0	82.7	91.6	Share	45.6%	53.3%	1.1%	-7.7%
							Vote	41.8	48.8	1.0	-7.0
						Recorded	Share	45.6%	53.4%	1.0%	-7.7%
						Vote	91.6	41.8	48.9	0.9	-7.1
										Error	-0.1%

1984
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	95%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1984	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1980	1980	1980	1984	1984	Turnout	Mix	Mondale	Reagan	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	14.8	16%	31	68	1	-
Carter	41.0%	40.4	35.5	33.7	32.0	31.5	34%	82	18	0	93
Reagan	50.7%	45.4	43.9	41.7	39.6	40.8	44%	11	88	1	98
Anderson	8.3%	7.3	7.2	6.8	6.5	5.6	6%	49	50	1	81
											Margin
Total		93.1	86.6	82.2	78.1	92.7	Share	40.6%	58.7%	0.7%	-18.1%
							Vote	37.6	54.4	0.6	-16.8
						Recorded	Share	40.6%	58.8%	0.7%	-18.2%
						Vote	92.7	37.6	54.5	0.6	-16.9
										Error	-0.1%

1980
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	94%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1980	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1976	1976	1976	1980	1980	Turnout	Mix	Carter	Reagan	Anderson	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	13.9	16%	39	44	17	-
Carter	50.1%	44.7	40.8	38.8	36.5	36.4	42%	71	22	7	94
Ford	48.0%	40.4	39.1	37.2	35.0	35.5	41%	11	83	6	95
Other	1.9%	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.4	0.9	1%	44	42	14	59
											Margin
Total		86.7	81.5	77.5	72.8	86.6	Share	41.0%	50.7%	8.3%	-9.7%
							Vote	35.5	43.9	7.2	-8.4
						Recorded	Share	41.0%	50.7%	8.3%	-9.7%
						Vote	86.6	35.5	43.9	7.2	-8.4
										Error	0.0%

1976
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	94%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1976	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1972	1972	1972	1976	1976	Turnout	Mix	Carter	Ford	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	11.8	15%	57	40	3	-
McGovern	36.2%	34.2	28.2	26.8	25.2	24.5	30%	92	7	1	91
Nixon	60.7%	49.1	47.2	44.8	42.1	43.2	53%	24	74	2	96
Other	3.1%	2.5	2.4	2.3	2.1	2.0	3%	58	39	3	89
											Margin
Total		85.8	77.7	73.9	69.4	81.5	Share	50.0%	48.1%	1.9%	1.9%
							Vote	40.8	39.2	1.5	1.6
						Recorded	Share	50.1%	48.0%	1.9%	2.1%
						Vote	81.5	40.8	39.1	1.6	1.7
										Error	0.1%

1972
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
				95%	92%
	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Voted	Voter	1972	National Exit Poll			Voter %
	1968	1968	1968	1972	1972	Turnout	Mix	McGovern	Nixon	Other	Turnout
DNV		-	-	-	-	8.6	11%	43	53	4	-
Humphrey	42.9%	35.8	31.3	29.7	27.3	27.2	35%	71	28	1	92
Nixon	43.6%	33.1	31.8	30.2	27.8	34.2	44%	6	89	5	113
Wallace	13.6%	10.1	9.9	9.4