Sensitivity Analysis: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 
TruthIsAll


Sensitivity analysis is an important tool in measuring risk in analytical modeling. Model input assumptions are based on the best available data, but one must “stress test” a model by running various scenarios to gauge the effect of incremental changes in the assumptions on the result. This analysis displays the effects of incremental changes in vote share assumptions on the True Vote for various 2004 National Exit Poll categories.

Since the Final NEP (13660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote count, we cannot use it as a viable base case (the “Voted in 2000” category weightings are mathematically impossible).  Therefore, the 12:22am NEP update vote shares (13047 respondents) are used for the Base Case in order to calculate the True Vote. At 12:22am, Kerry was the presumptive winner with 51.4% of the vote.

But 51.4% was too low since the 12:22am update indicated a 41% Bush/ 39% Gore 2000 voter participation mix in 2004. The Bush 41% weighting was not feasible; it implied that 50.1m of 50.5m Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004. That was impossible since close to 2 million died and another 2 million did not vote, so no more than 46.5m Bush 2000 voters could have voted in 2004.

The weights had to be changed to reflect a plausible estimate of returning 2000 voters in 2004. The resulting 38.2% Gore/ 37.8% Bush mix was calculated by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for the a) 0.87% annual mortality rate and b) the assumption that 95% of 2000 voters turned out  in 2004. The adjusted weights are equal to the number of returning Gore and Bush voters, respectively, each divided by the 2004 recorded vote of 122.3m. The effect of the change in weights was to increase in Kerry’s True Vote from 51.4% to 52.6%, a 66.1-58.4m margin (the U.S. Census estimated that 125.7m votes were cast in 2004, of which 3.4m were uncounted).

Vote shares for the demographic categories listed below were adjusted to match the True Vote.  The Base Case Scenario for each category is displayed above the Kerry national vote share table.

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Voted in 2000 (adjusted weights)

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Did Not Vote     27.02    21.5%    57.0%    41.0%    2.0%     
Gore             48.08    38.2%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%     
Bush             47.56    37.8%    10.0%    90.0%    0.0%     
Other             3.08     2.5%    71.0%    21.0%    8.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.6%    46.4%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27     
                                                             
Kerry share of             Did not vote in 2000                                     
Gore     49.0%    51.0%    53.0%    54.0%    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%

voters                     Kerry vote share

86%      48.9%    49.4%    49.8%    50.0%    50.7%    51.1%    51.5%
87%      49.3%    49.7%    50.2%    50.4%    51.0%    51.5%    51.9%
88%      49.7%    50.1%    50.6%    50.8%    51.4%    51.8%    52.3%
89%      50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.2%    51.8%    52.2%    52.7%
90%      50.5%    50.9%    51.3%    51.5%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%
91%      50.8%    51.3%    51.7%    51.9%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4%
92%      51.2%    51.7%    52.1%    52.3%    52.9%    53.4%    53.8%
 
                                                    
Kerry share of         Bush 2000 voters                        
Gore      7.0%     7.5%     8.0%     8.5%     9.0%     9.5%    10.0%

voters                                                   Kerry vote share

85%      49.1%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%
86%      49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%
87%      49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%
88%      50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%
89%      50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%
90%      51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%
91%      51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.6%

 

 

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Gender
                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Male             58.34    46.4%    49.5%    49.5%    1.0%     
Female           67.40    53.6%    55.0%    44.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.4%    46.6%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   65.95    58.56    1.23     
                                                             
Kerry share of             Males
Females  44.0%    45.0%    46.0%    47.0%    48.0%    49.0%    50.0%

                   Kerry vote share

51%      47.8%    48.2%    48.7%    49.1%    49.6%    50.1%    50.5%
52%      48.3%    48.8%    49.2%    49.7%    50.1%    50.6%    51.1%
53%      48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.2%    50.7%    51.1%    51.6%
54%      49.4%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.2%    51.7%    52.1%
55%      49.9%    50.4%    50.8%    51.3%    51.8%    52.2%    52.7%
 
                                                             

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Race and Gender
         Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
WMale    45.27    36.0%    43.0%    56.0%    1.0%     
WFem     51.55    41.0%    48.0%    51.0%    1.0%     
NwMale   12.57    10.0%    73.0%    26.0%    1.0%     
NwFem    16.35    13.0%    77.0%    22.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share    Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes    125.74   125.74   65.98    58.51    1.26     
 
Kerry share of            Non-white Females
White    75.0%    76.0%    77.0%    78.0%    79.0%    80.0%    81.0%

Females                    Kerry vote share

44%      50.6%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%    51.1%    51.2%    51.4%
45%      51.0%    51.1%    51.2%    51.4%    51.5%    51.6%    51.8%
46%      51.4%    51.5%    51.7%    51.8%    51.9%    52.0%    52.2%
47%      51.8%    51.9%    52.1%    52.2%    52.3%    52.5%    52.6%
48%      52.2%    52.3%    52.5%    52.6%    52.7%    52.9%    53.0%
49%      52.6%    52.8%    52.9%    53.0%    53.1%    53.3%    53.4%
50%      53.0%    53.2%    53.3%    53.4%    53.6%    53.7%    53.8%
 
 

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Party ID
                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Dem              47.78    38.0%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%     
Rep              44.01    35.0%    8.0%     91.0%    1.0%     
Ind              33.95    27.0%    56.0%    43.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.01    58.47    1.26     
                                                             
                       Kerry Share of Democrats                                     
Democratic 86.0% 87.0%     88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%

Party ID                  Kerry vote share

35%      48.0%    48.4%    48.7%    49.1%    49.4%    49.8%    50.1%
36%      48.9%    49.2%    49.6%    50.0%    50.3%    50.7%    51.0%
37%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%
38%      50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.9%
39%      51.5%    51.9%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4%    53.8%
40%      52.3%    52.7%    53.1%    53.5%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%
                                                             
Kerry share of            Democrats                                     
         88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%    93.0%    94.0%

Independents               Kerry vote share

49%      49.5%    49.9%    50.2%    50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%
50%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.3%    51.6%    52.0%
51%      50.0%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%
52%      50.3%    50.7%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%
53%      50.6%    50.9%    51.3%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.8%
54%      50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%    52.3%    52.7%    53.1%
                                                             

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Region
                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
East             27.66    22.0%    59.0%    40.0%    1.0%     
Midwest          32.69    26.0%    52.0%    47.0%    1.0%     
South            38.98    31.0%    46.0%    53.0%    1.0%     
West             26.41    21.0%    56.0%    43.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.04    58.44    1.26     
                                                             
Kerry share of             East                                        
         56.0%    57.0%    58.0%    59.0%    60.0%    61.0%    62.0%

Midwest                    Kerry vote share

48%      50.8%    51.0%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%
49%      51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%
50%      51.3%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.7%
51%      51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    52.9%
52%      51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    53.0%    53.2%
53%      52.1%    52.3%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.2%    53.4%
54%      52.4%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.3%    53.5%    53.7%
                                                             
                                                             

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Education
                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
No High School   5.03     4.0%     51.0%    48.0%    1.0%     
High School      27.66    22.0%    53.0%    46.0%    1.0%     
Some College     38.98    31.0%    50.0%    49.0%    1.0%     
College Grad     32.69    26.0%    51.0%    48.0%    1.0%     
Post Grad        21.38    17.0%    59.0%    40.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.00    58.48    1.26     
                                                             
Kerry share of             High School Graduates                                   
College  47.0%    48.0%    49.0%    50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%

Grads                      Kerry vote share

46%      49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%
47%      50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%    51.5%
48%      50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%
49%      50.7%    50.9%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.8%    52.0%
50%      50.9%    51.1%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%
51%      51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.3%    52.5%
52%      51.4%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%    52.8%
53%      51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.4%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%
                                                             
                                                             
                                                             

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Age
         Votes   Weight   Kerry   Bush     Other    
18-29    21.38    17.0%    60.0%    39.0%    1.0%     
30-44    36.46    29.0%    50.0%    49.0%    1.0%     
45-59    37.72    30.0%    54.0%    45.0%    1.0%     
60+      30.18    24.0%    48.0%    51.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share    Total    100.0%   52.4%    46.6%    1.0%     
Votes    125.74   125.74   65.91    58.57    1.26     
                                                             
Kerry share of             18-29 Age Group                                      
45-59    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%    57.0%    58.0%    59.0%    60.0%

Age Group                 Kerry vote share

48%      49.6%    49.8%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.6%
49%      49.9%    50.1%    50.2%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    50.9%
50%      50.2%    50.4%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.1%    51.2%
51%      50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%    51.18%   51.4%    51.5%
52%      50.8%    51.0%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.8%
53%      51.1%    51.3%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.1%
54%      51.4%    51.6%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.4%
                                                             
                                                             

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Income           
        Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
0-15K    11.32    9.0%     67.0%    32.0%    1.0%     
15-30    18.86    15.0%    61.0%    38.0%    1.0%     
30-50    27.66    22.0%    54.0%    45.0%    1.0%     
50-75    28.92    23.0%    47.0%    52.0%    1.0%     
75-100   16.35    13.0%    49.0%    50.0%    1.0%     
100-150  13.83    11.0%    48.0%    51.0%    1.0%     
150-200   5.03     4.0%    45.0%    54.0%    1.0%     
200+      3.77    3.0%     40.0%    59.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share    Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes    125.74   125.74   66.04    58.44    1.26     
                                                             
Kerry share of              30-50k Income 
75-100k   50.0%   51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%

Income                     Kerry vote share

45%      51.1%    51.3%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%
46%      51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.4%    52.6%
47%      51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%
48%      51.5%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.6%    52.8%
49%      51.6%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    53.0%
50%      51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.7%    52.9%    53.1%
51%      51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.2%
52%      52.0%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    52.9%    53.1%    53.4%
                                                             
                                                             

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Ideology         
                 Votes   Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Liberal          27.66    22.0%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%     
Moderate         56.58    45.0%    59.0%    40.0%    1.0%     
Conservative     41.49    33.0%    18.0%    81.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.03    58.46    1.26     
                                                             
                                     
Kerry share of             Liberals
Moderates 85.0%   86.0%    87.0%    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%

                           Kerry vote share

54%      48.9%    49.2%    49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.0%    50.3%
55%      49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%
56%      49.8%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%
57%      50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%
58%      50.7%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.1%
59%      51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%
                                                             
                                                             

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Religion
                 Votes   Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Protestant       66.64   53.0%    44.0%    55.0%    1.0%     
Catholic         33.95   27.0%    52.0%    47.0%    1.0%     
Jewish            3.77   3.0%     79.0%    20.0%    1.0%     
Other             8.80   7.0%     78.0%    21.0%    1.0%     
None             12.57   10.0%    73.0%    26.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.00    58.48    1.26     
                                                             
Kerry share of             Catholics
         47.0%    48.0%    49.0%    50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%

Protestants                Kerry vote share

40%      49.0%    49.3%    49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%
41%      49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%    51.2%
42%      50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%    51.2%    51.4%    51.7%
43%      50.6%    50.9%    51.2%    51.4%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%
44%      51.1%    51.4%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.5%    52.8%
45%      51.7%    51.9%    52.2%    52.5%    52.8%    53.0%    53.3%
46%      52.2%    52.5%    52.7%    53.0%    53.3%    53.6%    53.8%
47%      52.7%    53.0%    53.3%    53.5%    53.8%    54.1%    54.4%
                                                             
                                                             

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Served in Military        
                  Votes   Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Yes              22.63    18.0%    46.0%    53.0%    1.0%     
No               103.11   82.0%    54.0%    45.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share            Total    100.0%   52.6%    46.4%    1.0%     
Votes            125.74   125.74   66.09    58.39    1.26     
                                                             
Kerry share of             Did not serve
         50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%

Served                     Kerry vote share

41%      48.4%    49.2%    50.0%    50.8%    51.7%    52.5%    53.3%
42%      48.6%    49.4%    50.2%    51.0%    51.8%    52.7%    53.5%
43%      48.7%    49.6%    50.4%    51.2%    52.0%    52.8%    53.7%
44%      48.9%    49.7%    50.6%    51.4%    52.2%    53.0%    53.8%
45%      49.1%    49.9%    50.7%    51.6%    52.4%    53.2%    54.0%
                                                             
                                                             

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When Decided to Vote
 
         Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
Today    7.54     6.0%     66.0%    33.0%    1.0%     
3days    3.77     3.0%     66.0%    33.0%    1.0%     
7days    2.51     2.0%     50.0%    49.0%    1.0%     
30days   12.57    10.0%    61.0%    38.0%    1.0%     
Over30   99.33    79.0%    50.0%    49.0%    1.0%     
                                                             
Share    Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%     
Votes    125.74   125.74   66.06    58.42    1.26     
 
Kerry share of             Voters who decided on Election Day                                       
decided  54.0%    56.0%    58.0%    61.0%    63.0%    65.0%    66.0%

30+ days                   Kerry vote share

48%      50.2%    50.4%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    50.9%    51.0%
49%      51.0%    51.2%    51.3%    51.5%    51.6%    51.7%    51.8%
50%      51.8%    51.9%    52.1%    52.2%    52.4%    52.5%    52.5%
51%      52.6%    52.7%    52.9%    53.0%    53.2%    53.3%    53.3%
52%      53.4%    53.5%    53.6%    53.8%    53.9%    54.1%    54.1%
53%      54.2%    54.3%    54.4%    54.6%    54.7%    54.9%    54.9%
54%      55.0%    55.1%    55.2%    55.4%    55.5%    55.6%    55.7%
55%      55.8%    55.9%    56.0%    56.2%    56.3%    56.4%    56.5%

 

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