Sensitivity Analysis:
Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
TruthIsAll
Sensitivity analysis is an important
tool in measuring risk in analytical modeling. Model input assumptions are
based on the best available data, but one must “stress test” a model by running
various scenarios to gauge the effect of incremental changes in the assumptions
on the result. This analysis displays the effects of incremental changes in vote
share assumptions on the True Vote for various 2004 National Exit Poll
categories.
Since the Final NEP (13660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded
vote count, we cannot use it as a viable base case (the “Voted in 2000”
category weightings are mathematically impossible). Therefore, the 12:22am NEP update vote shares (13047 respondents)
are used for the Base Case in order to calculate the True Vote. At 12:22am,
Kerry was the presumptive winner with 51.4% of the vote.
But 51.4% was too low since the
12:22am update indicated a 41% Bush/ 39% Gore 2000 voter participation mix in
2004. The Bush 41% weighting was not feasible; it implied that 50.1m of 50.5m
Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004. That was impossible since close to
2 million died and another 2 million did not vote, so no more than 46.5m Bush
2000 voters could have voted in 2004.
The weights had to be changed to reflect a plausible estimate of
returning 2000 voters in 2004. The resulting 38.2% Gore/ 37.8% Bush mix was
calculated by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for the a) 0.87% annual
mortality rate and b) the assumption that 95% of 2000 voters turned out in 2004. The adjusted weights are equal to
the number of returning Gore and Bush voters, respectively, each divided by the
2004 recorded vote of 122.3m. The effect of the change in weights was to
increase in Kerry’s True Vote from 51.4% to 52.6%, a 66.1-58.4m margin (the
U.S. Census estimated that 125.7m votes were cast in 2004, of which 3.4m were
uncounted).
Vote shares for the demographic categories listed below were adjusted to
match the True Vote. The Base Case
Scenario for each category is displayed above the Kerry national vote share
table.
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Voted in 2000 (adjusted weights)
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Did Not Vote 27.02 21.5% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48.08 38.2% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush 47.56 37.8% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 3.08 2.5% 71.0% 21.0% 8.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.09 58.38 1.27
Kerry share of Did not vote in 2000
Gore 49.0% 51.0% 53.0% 54.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
voters Kerry vote share
86% 48.9% 49.4% 49.8% 50.0% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5%
87% 49.3% 49.7% 50.2% 50.4% 51.0% 51.5% 51.9%
88% 49.7% 50.1% 50.6% 50.8% 51.4% 51.8% 52.3%
89% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.2% 51.8% 52.2% 52.7%
90% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.5% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0%
91% 50.8% 51.3% 51.7% 51.9% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4%
92% 51.2% 51.7% 52.1% 52.3% 52.9% 53.4% 53.8%
Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters
Gore 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0%
voters
Kerry vote share
85% 49.1% 49.3% 49.5% 49.7% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3%
86% 49.5% 49.7% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7%
87% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0%
88% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4%
89% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8%
90% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2%
91% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6%
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Gender
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Male 58.34 46.4% 49.5% 49.5% 1.0%
Female 67.40 53.6% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.4% 46.6% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 65.95 58.56 1.23
Kerry share of MalesFemales 44.0% 45.0% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0%
Kerry
vote share
51% 47.8% 48.2% 48.7% 49.1% 49.6% 50.1% 50.5%
52% 48.3% 48.8% 49.2% 49.7% 50.1% 50.6% 51.1%
53% 48.8% 49.3% 49.8% 50.2% 50.7% 51.1% 51.6%
54% 49.4% 49.8% 50.3% 50.8% 51.2% 51.7% 52.1%
55% 49.9% 50.4% 50.8% 51.3% 51.8% 52.2% 52.7%
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Race and Gender
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
WMale 45.27 36.0% 43.0% 56.0% 1.0%
WFem 51.55 41.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
NwMale 12.57 10.0% 73.0% 26.0% 1.0%
NwFem 16.35 13.0% 77.0% 22.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 65.98 58.51 1.26
Kerry share of Non-white Females
White 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0%
Females Kerry vote share
44% 50.6% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4%
45% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4% 51.5% 51.6% 51.8%
46% 51.4% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0% 52.2%
47% 51.8% 51.9% 52.1% 52.2% 52.3% 52.5% 52.6%
48% 52.2% 52.3% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0%
49% 52.6% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3% 53.4%
50% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8%
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Party ID
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Dem 47.78 38.0% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Rep 44.01 35.0% 8.0% 91.0% 1.0%
Ind 33.95 27.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.01 58.47 1.26
Kerry Share of Democrats
Democratic 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0%
Party ID Kerry vote share
35% 48.0% 48.4% 48.7% 49.1% 49.4% 49.8% 50.1%
36% 48.9% 49.2% 49.6% 50.0% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0%
37% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0%
38% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9%
39% 51.5% 51.9% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8%
40% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.3% 54.7%
Kerry share of Democrats
88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0%
Independents Kerry vote share
49% 49.5% 49.9% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8%
50% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.6% 52.0%
51% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3%
52% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.6%
53% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.8%
54% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1%
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Region
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
East 27.66 22.0% 59.0% 40.0% 1.0%
Midwest 32.69 26.0% 52.0% 47.0% 1.0%
South 38.98 31.0% 46.0% 53.0% 1.0%
West 26.41 21.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.04 58.44 1.26
Kerry share of East
56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0%
Midwest Kerry vote share
48% 50.8% 51.0% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1%
49% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4%
50% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7%
51% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9%
52% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.2%
53% 52.1% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 53.4%
54% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7%
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Education
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
No High School 5.03 4.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0%
High School 27.66 22.0% 53.0% 46.0% 1.0%
Some College 38.98 31.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%
College Grad 32.69 26.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0%
Post Grad 21.38 17.0% 59.0% 40.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.00 58.48 1.26
Kerry share of High School Graduates
College 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0%
Grads Kerry vote share
46% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2%
47% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2% 51.5%
48% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7%
49% 50.7% 50.9% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.8% 52.0%
50% 50.9% 51.1% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2%
51% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5%
52% 51.4% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.8%
53% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0%
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Age
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
18-29 21.38 17.0% 60.0% 39.0% 1.0%
30-44 36.46 29.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%
45-59 37.72 30.0% 54.0% 45.0% 1.0%
60+ 30.18 24.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.4% 46.6% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 65.91 58.57 1.26
Kerry share of 18-29 Age Group
45-59 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0%
Age Group Kerry vote share
48% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.6%
49% 49.9% 50.1% 50.2% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9%
50% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2%
51% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.18% 51.4% 51.5%
52% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8%
53% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.1%
54% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.4%
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Income
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
0-15K 11.32 9.0% 67.0% 32.0% 1.0%
15-30 18.86 15.0% 61.0% 38.0% 1.0%
30-50 27.66 22.0% 54.0% 45.0% 1.0%
50-75 28.92 23.0% 47.0% 52.0% 1.0%
75-100 16.35 13.0% 49.0% 50.0% 1.0%
100-150 13.83 11.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
150-200 5.03 4.0% 45.0% 54.0% 1.0%
200+ 3.77 3.0% 40.0% 59.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.04 58.44 1.26
Kerry share of 30-50k Income 75-100k 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0%
Income Kerry vote share
45% 51.1% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4%
46% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4% 52.6%
47% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7%
48% 51.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8%
49% 51.6% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0%
50% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1%
51% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2%
52% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 53.4%
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Ideology
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Liberal 27.66 22.0% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Moderate 56.58 45.0% 59.0% 40.0% 1.0%
Conservative 41.49 33.0% 18.0% 81.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.03 58.46 1.26
Kerry share of Liberals
Moderates 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0%
Kerry vote share
54% 48.9% 49.2% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0% 50.3%
55% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7%
56% 49.8% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% 51.2%
57% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6%
58% 50.7% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.1%
59% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5%
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Religion
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Protestant 66.64 53.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0%
Catholic 33.95 27.0% 52.0% 47.0% 1.0%
Jewish 3.77 3.0% 79.0% 20.0% 1.0%
Other 8.80 7.0% 78.0% 21.0% 1.0%
None 12.57 10.0% 73.0% 26.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.00 58.48 1.26
Kerry share of Catholics47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0%
Protestants Kerry vote share
40% 49.0% 49.3% 49.6% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6%
41% 49.6% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2%
42% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.7%
43% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2%
44% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.5% 52.8%
45% 51.7% 51.9% 52.2% 52.5% 52.8% 53.0% 53.3%
46% 52.2% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6% 53.8%
47% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4%
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Served in Military
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Yes 22.63 18.0% 46.0% 53.0% 1.0%
No 103.11 82.0% 54.0% 45.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.09 58.39 1.26
Kerry share of Did not serve50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0%
Served Kerry vote share
41% 48.4% 49.2% 50.0% 50.8% 51.7% 52.5% 53.3%
42% 48.6% 49.4% 50.2% 51.0% 51.8% 52.7% 53.5%
43% 48.7% 49.6% 50.4% 51.2% 52.0% 52.8% 53.7%
44% 48.9% 49.7% 50.6% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.8%
45% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.6% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0%
______________________________________________________________________________________
When Decided to Vote Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
Today 7.54 6.0% 66.0% 33.0% 1.0%
3days 3.77 3.0% 66.0% 33.0% 1.0%
7days 2.51 2.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%
30days 12.57 10.0% 61.0% 38.0% 1.0%
Over30 99.33 79.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%
Votes 125.74 125.74 66.06 58.42 1.26
Kerry share of Voters who decided on Election Day
decided 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0% 66.0%
30+ days Kerry vote share
48% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 50.9% 51.0%
49% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.5% 51.6% 51.7% 51.8%
50% 51.8% 51.9% 52.1% 52.2% 52.4% 52.5% 52.5%
51% 52.6% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.3%
52% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9% 54.1% 54.1%
53% 54.2% 54.3% 54.4% 54.6% 54.7% 54.9% 54.9%
54% 55.0% 55.1% 55.2% 55.4% 55.5% 55.6% 55.7%
55% 55.8% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3% 56.4% 56.5%
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