This
is an update to my
open letter to you of a few days ago. The purpose is to further discuss a)
the difference between 2008 pre-election registered voter (RV) polls and likely
voter (LV) polls for forecasting, b) Zogby’s poll vs. selected GOP-leaning
polls and c) the close match between the RV polls and the post-election True
Vote Model and d) Pollster rankings measured by how close their projections
were to the True Vote.
I have
added three new tables.
The Gallup (RV) tracking poll ranks #1 with a 57.1% Obama projection (after UVA)
CBS (LV) and ABC/WP (RV) are tied at #2 with a 56.6% projected share.
Zogby is ranked #4 with a 55.1% share.
Pollsters with a GOP bias brought up the rear:
Battleground ranked #14 with a 52.4% share.
Rasmussen ranked last at #15 with a 52.1% share.
Table 6 is a comparison of final RV and LV polls
The average LV poll had Obama winning by 50.3-44.0 before allocating undecided voters (UVA) and 53.4-45.1 after UVA.
The average RV poll had Obama winning by 53.3-39.5 before UVA and 57.6-40.9 after UVA.
Zogby’s LV poll had Obama winning by 54-43 before UVA and 55.1-43.4 after UVA.
Consider the final ABC and Gallup RV Polls (combined 5293 sample, 1.8% MoE).
They had Obama winning by 53.5-40.5 before UVA and 56.9-41.6 after UVA.
You rank Zogby dead last, yet his LV poll numbers are right in the middle of the RV and LV groups.
He is closer to ABC and Gallup than Rasmussen, Hotline and FOX.
You have lowered Rasmussen’s ranking but you still rank him much higher than Zogby.
Rasmussen has a strong GOP bias. Hotline, FOX and Battleground also lean to the GOP.
Do you have any evidence that Zogby’s polls are
biased?
Do you still feel that you are justified in ranking
Zogby last?
Table 7 displays the post-election True Vote Model.
It
closely matches the RV projections.
It
proves that the NEP returning voter mix is bogus.
My
final 2008 Election Model gave Obama 53.1%. The 5000 election- trial Monte
Carlo EV simulation produced a 365.8 mean EV.
The
convergence of the mean to the expected value illustrates the Law of Large
Numbers.
The
expected value is given by the simple summation: EV = å Win probability (i) * EV (i), where i=1,51 states
Obama
had an expected 365.3 electoral votes, matching his recorded total.
The Election Model exactly matched the recorded EV and was within 0.2% of the popular vote.
But it was wrong. It understated Obama’s True Vote.
The final state polls were LVs, not RVs.
Do you still believe that Obama’s 52.9% recorded share reflects the True Vote?
Do you still think that Obama had just 365 electoral votes?
The True Vote model indicates that Obama had close to 58% and over 420 EV!
TABLE 4
ALL POLLS VS. RESEARCH 2000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected
Vote |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided
Voter Allocation |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
All POLLS |
|
|
|
75% |
25% |
|
|
Research
2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
|
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
|
|
|
Average |
49.87 |
42.67 |
7.2 |
54.34 |
44.16 |
10.19 |
|
50.33 |
42.33 |
8 |
|
|
|
Stdev |
2.434 |
2.426 |
3.74 |
2.022 |
2.022 |
4.04 |
|
1.53 |
1.93 |
3.23 |
|
|
|
Max |
54 |
47 |
16 |
59.88 |
47.63 |
21.25 |
|
53 |
46 |
13 |
|
Pollster |
Sample |
Min |
44 |
36 |
0 |
50.88 |
38.63 |
3.25 |
|
47 |
40 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov |
|
|
|
|
Marist |
804LV |
11/03 -
11/03 |
52 |
43 |
9 |
54.6 |
43.9 |
10.8 |
4 |
51 |
46 |
5 |
|
FOX News |
971LV |
11/02 -
11/03 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
54.1 |
44.4 |
9.8 |
3 |
51 |
45 |
6 |
|
Zogby |
1201LV |
11/01 -
11/03 |
54 |
43 |
11 |
55.1 |
43.4 |
11.8 |
2 |
51 |
44 |
7 |
|
NBC/WSJ |
1011LV |
11/01 -
11/02 |
51 |
43 |
8 |
54.4 |
44.1 |
10.3 |
1 |
51 |
44 |
7 |
|
Research2k |
1100LV |
10/31 -
11/02 |
51 |
44 |
7 |
53.6 |
44.9 |
8.8 |
3 |
51 |
45 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
|
|
|
|
Gallup |
2847RV |
10/31 -
11/02 |
53 |
40 |
13 |
57.1 |
41.4 |
15.8 |
30 |
50 |
45 |
5 |
|
Hotline/FD |
882LV |
10/31 -
11/02 |
50 |
45 |
5 |
52.6 |
45.9 |
6.8 |
29 |
50 |
44 |
6 |
|
Rasmussen |
3000LV |
10/31 -
11/02 |
51 |
46 |
5 |
52.1 |
46.4 |
5.8 |
28 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
ABC/WP |
2446RV |
10/31 -
11/02 |
54 |
41 |
13 |
56.6 |
41.9 |
14.8 |
27 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
|
CNN |
1017LV |
10/30 -
11/01 |
51 |
43 |
8 |
54.4 |
44.1 |
10.3 |
26 |
51 |
40 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pew |
2587LV |
10/30 -
11/01 |
49 |
42 |
7 |
54.6 |
43.9 |
10.8 |
25 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
Marist |
543LV |
10/29 -
10/29 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
54.1 |
44.4 |
9.8 |
24 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
CBS |
1005LV |
10/28 -
10/31 |
54 |
41 |
13 |
56.6 |
41.9 |
14.8 |
23 |
51 |
41 |
10 |
|
FOX News |
924LV |
10/28 -
10/29 |
47 |
44 |
3 |
52.6 |
45.9 |
6.8 |
22 |
51 |
41 |
10 |
|
Battleground |
1000LV |
10/27 -
10/30 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
52.4 |
46.1 |
6.3 |
21 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos |
831LV |
10/23 -
10/27 |
50 |
45 |
5 |
52.6 |
45.9 |
6.8 |
20 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
|
Pew |
1325RV |
10/23 -
10/26 |
52 |
36 |
16 |
59.9 |
38.6 |
21.3 |
19 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
Newsweek |
882LV |
10/22 -
10/23 |
53 |
41 |
12 |
56.4 |
42.1 |
14.3 |
18 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
FOX News |
936LV |
10/20 -
10/21 |
49 |
40 |
9 |
56.1 |
42.4 |
13.8 |
17 |
52 |
42 |
10 |
|
CBS/NYT |
771LV |
10/19 -
10/22 |
52 |
39 |
13 |
57.6 |
40.9 |
16.8 |
16 |
52 |
41 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NBC/WSJ |
1159RV |
10/18 -
10/20 |
52 |
42 |
10 |
55.4 |
43.1 |
12.3 |
15 |
52 |
41 |
11 |
|
CNN |
764LV |
10/17 -
10/19 |
51 |
46 |
5 |
52.1 |
46.4 |
5.8 |
14 |
52 |
41 |
11 |
|
Ipsos |
773LV |
10/16 -
10/20 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
54.9 |
43.6 |
11.3 |
13 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
Pew Resrch |
2382LV |
10/16 -
10/19 |
53 |
39 |
14 |
57.9 |
40.6 |
17.3 |
12 |
53 |
40 |
13 |
|
Pew Resrch |
1191LV |
10/12 -
10/14 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
56.4 |
42.1 |
14.3 |
11 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBS/NYT |
699LV |
10/10 -
10/13 |
53 |
39 |
14 |
57.9 |
40.6 |
17.3 |
10 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
LAT |
1030LV |
10/10 -
10/13 |
50 |
41 |
9 |
55.6 |
42.9 |
12.8 |
9 |
51 |
41 |
10 |
|
Ipsos |
1036RV |
10/9 -
10/13 |
48 |
39 |
9 |
56.6 |
41.9 |
14.8 |
8 |
51 |
41 |
10 |
|
ABC/WP |
766LV |
10/09 -
10/11 |
53 |
43 |
10 |
54.9 |
43.6 |
11.3 |
7 |
52 |
41 |
11 |
|
Newsweek |
1035RV |
10/08 -
10/09 |
52 |
41 |
11 |
56.1 |
42.4 |
13.8 |
6 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOX
News |
900RV |
10/08 -
10/09 |
46 |
39 |
7 |
56.1 |
42.4 |
13.8 |
5 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
NBC/WSJ |
658RV |
10/04 -
10/05 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.9 |
44.6 |
9.3 |
4 |
52 |
40 |
12 |
|
CBS/NYT |
616LV |
10/03 -
10/05 |
48 |
45 |
3 |
52.1 |
46.4 |
5.8 |
3 |
51 |
40 |
11 |
|
CNN |
694LV |
10/03 -
10/05 |
53 |
45 |
8 |
53.4 |
45.1 |
8.3 |
2 |
51 |
40 |
11 |
|
Ipsos |
858RV |
10/02 -
10/06 |
47 |
40 |
7 |
55.6 |
42.9 |
12.8 |
1 |
51 |
41 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
|
|
|
|
Marist |
943LV |
09/28 -
09/30 |
49 |
44 |
5 |
53.1 |
45.4 |
7.8 |
30 |
51 |
41 |
10 |
|
AP/GfK |
808LV |
09/27 -
09/30 |
48 |
41 |
7 |
55.1 |
43.4 |
11.8 |
29 |
51 |
42 |
9 |
|
CBS/NYT |
769LV |
09/27 -
09/30 |
50 |
41 |
9 |
55.6 |
42.9 |
12.8 |
28 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
Ipsos |
1007RV |
09/27 -
09/30 |
48 |
45 |
3 |
52.1 |
46.4 |
5.8 |
27 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
|
Time |
1133LV |
09/27 -
09/29 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
54.1 |
44.4 |
9.8 |
26 |
48 |
43 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pew Resrch |
1181LV |
09/27 -
09/29 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.9 |
44.6 |
9.3 |
25 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
|
ABC/WP |
916LV |
09/27 -
09/29 |
50 |
46 |
4 |
51.9 |
46.6 |
5.3 |
24 |
48 |
44 |
4 |
|
CBS/NYT |
844RV |
09/22 -
09/24 |
47 |
42 |
5 |
54.1 |
44.4 |
9.8 |
23 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
|
ABC/WP |
780LV |
09/20 -
09/22 |
52 |
43 |
9 |
54.6 |
43.9 |
10.8 |
22 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
|
FOX
News |
900RV |
09/20 -
09/22 |
45 |
39 |
6 |
55.9 |
42.6 |
13.3 |
21 |
49 |
42 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos |
923RV |
09/20 -
09/22 |
44 |
43 |
1 |
52.6 |
45.9 |
6.8 |
20 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
|
NBC/WSJ |
838LV |
09/19 -
09/22 |
48 |
46 |
2 |
51.4 |
47.1 |
4.3 |
19 |
49 |
42 |
7 |
|
LAT |
1085RV |
09/19 -
09/22 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
52.4 |
46.1 |
6.3 |
18 |
49 |
43 |
6 |
|
CNN |
697LV |
09/19 -
09/21 |
51 |
47 |
4 |
51.4 |
47.1 |
4.3 |
17 |
48 |
44 |
4 |
|
Zogby |
1008LV |
09/13 -
09/15 |
47 |
45 |
2 |
51.9 |
46.6 |
5.3 |
16 |
48 |
45 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos |
1046RV |
09/13 -
09/15 |
45 |
45 |
0 |
51.4 |
47.1 |
4.3 |
15 |
48 |
46 |
2 |
|
CBS/NYT |
800LV |
09/12 -
09/16 |
49 |
44 |
5 |
53.1 |
45.4 |
7.8 |
14 |
47 |
46 |
1 |
|
Quinnipiac |
987LV |
09/11 -
09/16 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
52.4 |
46.1 |
6.3 |
13 |
47 |
46 |
1 |
|
Newsweek |
1038RV |
09/10 -
09/11 |
46 |
46 |
0 |
50.9 |
47.6 |
3.3 |
12 |
47 |
46 |
1 |
TABLE 5
2008 TRUE VOTE POLLSTER RANK
|
|
|
End |
|
|
Final
Poll |
|
Projection |
|
|
Rank |
Poll |
Date |
Sample |
MoE |
Obama |
McCain |
Obama |
McCain |
|
1 |
Gallup |
2-Nov |
2847RV |
1.84% |
53 |
40 |
57.13 |
41.38 |
|
2 |
ABC/WP |
2-Nov |
2446RV |
1.98% |
54 |
41 |
56.63 |
41.88 |
|
3 |
CBS |
31-Oct |
1005LV |
3.09% |
54 |
41 |
56.63 |
41.88 |
|
4 |
Zogby |
3-Nov |
1201LV |
2.83% |
54 |
43 |
55.13 |
43.38 |
|
5 |
Marist |
3-Nov |
804LV |
3.46% |
52 |
43 |
54.63 |
43.88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
Pew |
1-Nov |
2587LV |
1.93% |
49 |
42 |
54.63 |
43.88 |
|
7 |
NBC/WSJ |
2-Nov |
1011LV |
3.08% |
51 |
43 |
54.38 |
44.13 |
|
8 |
CNN |
1-Nov |
1017LV |
3.07% |
51 |
43 |
54.38 |
44.13 |
|
9 |
FOX News |
3-Nov |
971LV |
3.14% |
50 |
43 |
54.13 |
44.38 |
|
10 |
Marist |
29-Oct |
543LV |
4.21% |
50 |
43 |
54.13 |
44.38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
Research2k |
2-Nov |
1100LV |
2.95% |
51 |
44 |
53.63 |
44.88 |
|
12 |
Hotline/FD |
2-Nov |
882LV |
3.30% |
50 |
45 |
52.63 |
45.88 |
|
13 |
FOX News |
29-Oct |
924LV |
3.22% |
47 |
44 |
52.63 |
45.88 |
|
14 |
Battleground |
30-Oct |
1000LV |
3.10% |
49 |
45 |
52.38 |
46.13 |
|
15 |
Rasmussen |
2-Nov |
3000LV |
1.79% |
51 |
46 |
52.13 |
46.38 |
TABLE 6
2008 REGISTERED AND LIKELY VOTER POLLS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projection:
Allocate Undecided |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
75% |
25% |
|
|
LV
Poll |
Size |
Date |
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
|
Obama |
McCain |
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOX News |
971 |
11/02-03 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
54.1 |
44.4 |
9.8 |
|
Hotline/FD |
882 |
10/31-11/02 |
50 |
45 |
5 |
|
52.6 |
45.9 |
6.8 |
|
Rasmussen |
3000 |
10/31-11/02 |
51 |
46 |
5 |
|
52.1 |
46.4 |
5.8 |
|
CNN |
1017 |
10/30-11/01 |
51 |
43 |
8 |
|
54.4 |
44.1 |
10.3 |
|
Pew |
2587 |
10/30-11/01 |
49 |
42 |
7 |
|
54.6 |
43.9 |
10.8 |
|
Average |
1872 |
10/30-11/03 |
50.3 |
44 |
6.3 |
|
53.4 |
45.1 |
8.4 |
|
Zogby
(LV) |
1201 |
11/01-03 |
54 |
43 |
11 |
|
55.1 |
43.4 |
11.8 |
|
RV
Poll |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gallup |
2847 |
10/31-11/02 |
53 |
40 |
13 |
|
57.1 |
41.4 |
15.8 |
|
ABC/WP |
2446 |
10/31-11/02 |
54 |
41 |
13 |
|
56.6 |
41.9 |
14.8 |
|
CBS |
1005 |
10/28-31 |
54 |
41 |
13 |
|
56.6 |
41.9 |
14.8 |
|
Pew |
1325 |
10/23-26 |
52 |
36 |
16 |
|
59.9 |
38.6 |
21.3 |
|
Total |
7623 |
10/23-11/02 |
53.3 |
39.5 |
13.8 |
|
57.6 |
40.9 |
16.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gallup+ABC |
5293 |
10/31-11/02 |
53.5 |
40.5 |
13 |
|
56.9 |
41.6 |
15.3 |
|
MoE=
1.96 * [ sqrt (.577 * .423) / 5293 ] = 1.8% |
|
2pty |
57.7 |
42.3 |
15.5 |
||||
TABLE 7
2008 TRUE VOTE ANALYSIS
|
|
National |
|
|
2008 |
True Vote Analysis |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turnout in 2008 |
Unctd /
stuffed |
|||
|
|
Cast |
0 |
Unctd |
Alive |
Cast |
Official |
Unctd |
Mortality |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
|
|
125.7 |
122.3 |
3.4 |
119.4 |
132.6 |
131.4 |
1.2 |
6.6 |
97% |
97% |
75% |
25% |
0% |
|
|
- |
97.3% |
2.7% |
95.0% |
- |
99.1% |
0.9% |
5.0% |
- |
- |
0% |
100% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National |
Vote (mil) |
422 EV |
Pct |
Share (%) |
|
Vote (mil) |
|
|
||||
|
MoE |
2004 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Turnout |
|
1.6% |
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
16.4 |
12.4 |
71.0 |
27.0 |
2.0 |
11.7 |
4.4 |
0.33 |
|
|
1.1% |
Kerry |
67.1 |
59.0 |
63.8 |
61.9 |
46.8 |
89.0 |
10.0 |
1.0 |
55.1 |
6.2 |
0.62 |
97% |
|
1.3% |
Bush |
57.0 |
62.0 |
54.1 |
52.5 |
39.7 |
17.0 |
82.0 |
1.0 |
8.9 |
43.0 |
0.52 |
97% |
|
1.6% |
Other |
0.0 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
72.0 |
17.0 |
11.0 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.17 |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True |
125.7 |
122.3 |
119.5 |
132.3 |
|
58.0 |
40.8 |
1.2 |
76.7 |
53.9 |
1.64 |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Recorded |
52.9 |
45.6 |
1.5 |
69.5 |
59.9 |
1.98 |
131.4 |
|
|
|
Recorded |
48.3 |
50.7 |
1.0 |
Diff |
|
5.1 |
-4.9 |
-0.3 |
7.3 |
-6.0 |
-0.34 |
|
|
|
Cast |
49.4 |
49.6 |
1.0 |
Exit Poll |
Na |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exit Poll |
52.0 |
47.0 |
1.0 |
Diff |
|
Na |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Bush |
||||||||||||