from Nov. 2004 - Aug. 2005
Fraud Analytics: Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
1988-2004 Election Calculator
Poll MoE exceeded in 24 states for Bush (30% cluster
Kerry win more than 360 Electoral Votes?
Submerging Democratic Majority
Anomaly: The last 5 million recorded votes
Classic DU thread from Nov. 2004
Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation
to the Interactive Election Simulation Model
the "computer glitch" myth: a simple Excel-based Vote Hacker
a Reasonable Doubt – Why Kerry won
Kerry lost 7 million votes: 2.6 uncounted; 4.4 switched
Curves for Various Vote Shares and MoEs
THE 2006 MIDTERMS
Post-mortem: How many GOP-held House seats were stolen from the Dems?
Discrepancies: 2006 State Vote counts vs. Wikipedia votes / Generic Poll Trend
Discrepancies: 2006 Generic Poll Trend vs 7:07pm and
Final Exit Poll
you still believe the reported vote count is accurate?
Reply to DUers who question my probability
in 76 BILLION: Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll
MATH: Democratic Tsunami and GOP House Election Fraud
Pre-election Generic Polls vs. the Final National Exit Poll
CNN Exit Poll changes: what's going on?
What It's Worth: Comparing the 2004 and 2006 National Exit Polls
2006 FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute – again!
the GOP can keep the House: STEAL 31 SEATS with uncounted & switched votes
11/03 House projection: Dems 245 - GOP 190... IF ZERO
House & Senate Forecast: A Monte Carlo Polling Simulation
15 Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the House
Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the Senate
the Dems win the House? YES (99% probability) if
there is ZERO fraud
projections: 120-poll trend vs. avg. of 10 finals differ by .05%
2004 PRE-ELECTION POLLS
The 2004 Election Monte-Carlo
2004 Pre-election Monthly Polls. Kerry led in every month
except Jan. & Sept.
of pre-election state polls was within 0.5% of the average 12:22am exit poll
Ultimate Smoking Gun? Change in 2-Party Gender/Race Vote
Virginia, pre-election state polls matched the exits - they really did.
Election Model: Kerry led monthly national pre-elect polls all year
Election Model projections matched the Exit Polls
Final National pre-election polls: OTOH at DU, eat your heart out
48.5% PRE-ELECTION APPROVAL vs. 48.3% AVERAGE OF PRE-ELECTION & EXIT POLLS
FREE EDUCATION: EXPERT POLLSTER HARRIS ON UNDECIDEDS
the ESI hypothesis...a hypothetical model
Its very clear: Kerry's pre-election state/national and exit
2004 National Pre-election Monthly Trend
2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Exit Poll, 4pm, 8349 respondents
Exit Poll, 733pm, 11027 respondents
11/3/04, 13047 respondents
National Exit Poll, 125pm, 13660 respondents
Matched to recorded vote
2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL – matched to recorded vote
SIMPLE MATH (1948-2006): FRAUD = UNCOUNTED + SWITCHED VOTES
III: EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS
snapshots: The National Exit Poll Time Line (3:59pm to Final)
Kerry won by 7 million votes across all NEP demographics
MINING: MATCH NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHICS TO THE GENDER VOTE
TO MATCH AN EXIT POLL TO A VOTE MISCOUNT: USE BOGUS WEIGHTS
CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS!
II: Census matches State/National Exit Poll Gender split (0.25%-0.50%)
IV: CENSUS MATCHES NAT EXIT POLL (EDUCATION, RACE, GENDER, INCOME)
ULTIMATE CLINCHER: BUSH NEEDED 1 OF 5 GORE VOTERS!!
many votes were electronically SWITCHED from Kerry to Bush?
NEP question: "Who did you vote for in the LAST election?" is
"Game" - we beat the Naysayers right here
"Game": An implausible response to the challenge
we won the DU "Game" debate...
TO MATCH THE VOTE COUNT? SIMPLE. JUST USE IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTS.
What Bush needed to WIN by 62-59mm and TIE at 60.5mm
won 12:22am NEP: 52.4 - 46.7%; Win Probability: 99.95% (even assuming 100%
Red Shift in 36/49 precincts (3 tied) mirrors the National in 41/50 states
Clincher Demographic: How Did You Vote in 2000?
Reluctant Transvestite Responder
Exit Polls: Reluctant Bush Responders Required to Match Vote
of 49 OH Exit Poll Precincts flip to Bush, 10 to Kerry ;
42 states flip Bush
Bush State Approval Chart is a guide to the stolen battleground states
know about Ohio, now why don't they investigate Florida?
Land Shark Alert! The TOTALITY of the evidence shows that...
Poll non-response vs. Census non-response: Q for TIA
mystery of 27 adjacent Florida precinct matches....
evidence: Census matched 12:22am National Exit Poll (4 demographics)
Exit Poll: Viewing the forest (state), not the trees (precincts)
Gender vote: 12:22am Nat. Exit Poll vs. State exits (so close it's scary
poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr
Optimizer analysis of State Exit Polls refutes rBr
CLASSIC DU thread from 11/26/04
conversation about exit polls...
reply to eomer on DU
open e-mail to DU Admin
Open Letter to Salon's Farhad Manjoo
DU's Awsi Dooger:"TIA
Cherry-picks polls". No Way, Awsi! YOU do.
is why naysayers should read the links they cite
Comprehensive Debate with a Naysayer