TruthIsAll Links

 

DU posts from Nov. 2004 - Aug. 2005

 

The Urban Legend

 

Election Fraud Analytics: Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

 

The 1988-2004 Election Calculator

 

Exit Poll MoE exceeded in 24 states for Bush (30% cluster effect)

 

NJ 2004

 

FL 2004

 

OH 2004

 

NY 2004

 

CA 2004

 

Did Kerry win more than 360 Electoral Votes?

 

The Submerging Democratic Majority

 

Strange Anomaly: The last 5 million recorded votes

 

A Classic DU thread from Nov. 2004

 

The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation

 

Introduction to the Interactive Election Simulation Model

 

Exposing the "computer glitch" myth: a simple Excel-based Vote Hacker

 

Voter Mortality

 

Beyond a Reasonable Doubt – Why Kerry won

 

How Kerry lost 7 million votes: 2.6 uncounted; 4.4 switched

 

Probability Curves for Various Vote Shares and MoEs

 

 

 

THE 2006 MIDTERMS

 
Post-mortem: How many GOP-held House seats were stolen from the Dems?
 

Reconciling Discrepancies: 2006 State Vote counts vs. Wikipedia votes / Generic Poll Trend

 

Reconciling Discrepancies: 2006 Generic Poll Trend vs 7:07pm and Final Exit Poll

 

Do you still believe the reported vote count is accurate?

 

A Reply to DUers who question my probability assumptions/calculations

 

1 in 76 BILLION: Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll

 

THE MATH: Democratic Tsunami and GOP House Election Fraud

 

120 Pre-election Generic Polls vs. the Final National Exit Poll

 

Final CNN Exit Poll changes: what's going on?

 

For What It's Worth: Comparing the 2004 and 2006 National Exit Polls

 

The 2006 FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute – again!

 

How the GOP can keep the House: STEAL 31 SEATS with uncounted & switched votes

 

My 11/03 House projection: Dems 245 - GOP 190... IF ZERO FRAUD

 

10/15 House & Senate Forecast: A Monte Carlo Polling Simulation

 

Oct. 15 Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the House

 

Oct.15 Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the Senate

 

Will the Dems win the House? YES (99% probability) if there is ZERO fraud

 

Generic projections: 120-poll trend vs. avg. of 10 finals differ by .05%

 

 

2004 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

 

The 2004 Election Monte-Carlo Simulation Model

 

2004 Pre-election Monthly Polls. Kerry led in every month except Jan. & Sept.

 

Average of pre-election state polls was within 0.5% of the average 12:22am exit poll

 

Ultimate Smoking Gun? Change in 2-Party Gender/Race Vote (2000-2004)

 

Yes, Virginia, pre-election state polls matched the exits - they really did.

 

2004 Election Model: Kerry led monthly national pre-elect polls all year

 

CONFIRMATION: Election Model projections matched the Exit Polls

 

18 Final National pre-election polls: OTOH at DU, eat your heart out

 

BUSH 48.5% PRE-ELECTION APPROVAL vs. 48.3% AVERAGE OF PRE-ELECTION & EXIT POLLS

 

A FREE EDUCATION: EXPERT POLLSTER HARRIS ON UNDECIDEDS

 

Concerning the ESI hypothesis...a hypothetical model

 

Its very clear: Kerry's pre-election state/national and exit poll state/national…

 

2004 National Pre-election Monthly Trend 

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

 

2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE

 

National Exit Poll, 4pm, 8349 respondents

 

National Exit Poll, 733pm, 11027 respondents

 

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

 

Final National Exit Poll, 125pm, 13660 respondents

 

2006 MiIDTERMS

Unadjusted

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/exitpolls.html

 

Matched to recorded vote

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html

 

2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL – matched to recorded vote

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE SIMPLE MATH (1948-2006): FRAUD = UNCOUNTED + SWITCHED VOTES

 

CLINCHER III: EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS

 

Four snapshots: The National Exit Poll Time Line (3:59pm to Final)

 

How Kerry won by 7 million votes across all NEP demographics

 

DATA MINING: MATCH NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHICS TO THE GENDER VOTE

 

HOW TO MATCH AN EXIT POLL TO A VOTE MISCOUNT: USE BOGUS WEIGHTS

 

THE CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS!

 

CLINCHER II: Census matches State/National Exit Poll Gender split (0.25%-0.50%)

 

CLINCHER IV: CENSUS MATCHES NAT EXIT POLL (EDUCATION, RACE, GENDER, INCOME)

 

THE ULTIMATE CLINCHER: BUSH NEEDED 1 OF 5 GORE VOTERS!!

 

How many votes were electronically SWITCHED from Kerry to Bush?

 

The NEP question: "Who did you vote for in the LAST election?" is IRRELEVANT

 

The "Game" - we beat the Naysayers right here

 

The "Game": An implausible response to the challenge

 

How we won the DU "Game" debate...

 

WANT TO MATCH THE VOTE COUNT? SIMPLE.  JUST USE IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTS.

 

IMPLAUSIBLE: What Bush needed to WIN by 62-59mm and TIE at 60.5mm

 

Kerry won 12:22am NEP: 52.4 - 46.7%; Win Probability: 99.95% (even assuming 100% Cluster Effect!)

 

Ohio Red Shift in 36/49 precincts (3 tied) mirrors the National in 41/50 states

 

The Clincher Demographic: How Did You Vote in 2000?

 

The Reluctant Transvestite Responder

 

State Exit Polls: Reluctant Bush Responders Required to Match Vote

 

36 of 49 OH Exit Poll Precincts flip to Bush, 10 to Kerry ; 42 states flip Bush

 

SUSA Bush State Approval Chart is a guide to the stolen battleground states

 

We know about Ohio, now why don't they investigate Florida?

 

DU Land Shark Alert! The TOTALITY of the evidence shows that...

 

Exit Poll non-response vs. Census non-response: Q for TIA

 

The mystery of 27 adjacent Florida precinct matches....

 

More evidence: Census matched 12:22am National Exit Poll (4 demographics)

 

OHIO Exit Poll: Viewing the forest (state), not the trees (precincts)

 

The Gender vote: 12:22am Nat. Exit Poll vs. State exits (so close it's scary

 

Exit poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr

 

Response Optimizer analysis of State Exit Polls refutes rBr

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS

 

A CLASSIC DU thread from 11/26/04

 

A conversation about exit polls...

 

A reply to eomer on DU

 

My open e-mail to DU Admin

 

An Open Letter to Salon's Farhad Manjoo

 

DU's Awsi Dooger:"TIA Cherry-picks polls". No Way, Awsi! YOU do.

 

Here is why naysayers should read the links they cite before posting

 

A Comprehensive Debate with a Naysayer