To Believe the Official 2008 Recorded Vote, You Must Also Believe …

 

TruthIsAll

 

Feb. 11, 2009

 

If you believe that 2008 was fraud-free and Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, then you must also believe that …

 

1. Bush won in 2004 by 12.5m votes (54.6-44.4%), assuming 2008 NEP vote shares and 95% turnout, despite the fact that his recorded margin was 3.0m (50.7-48.3%). The NEP is always forced to match the official recorded vote (Table 9,10).

 

2. Pre-election likely-voter (LV) polls that did not include new voters (51.0-43.6%) were more accurate than registered voter (RV) polls (52.3-40.0). (Table 5)

 

3. The Final NEP is correct in stating that 5.2 million  (4%) of the 2008 recorded 131.37m were returning 2004 third-party voters, despite the fact that there were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004 (less than 1% of the 2008 recorded vote)  (Table 1).

 

4. The Final NEP is correct in stating there were 17 million  (13%) new voters in 2008, despite the fact that 122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004 and approximately 6 million (5%) died. Of the 116m living in 2008, approximately 110m (95%) voted. Therefore there had to be 21 million new voters (16%). Is it just a coincidence that the 13% new voter stat is 3% too low and the 4% third-party stat is 3% too high? (Table 1)

 

5. The Final NEP is correct in stating that Obama won returning voters by a slim 50-48% margin despite the fact that he led the final LV polls (i.e. returning voters) by 50-43%. Assuming Obama had 75% of the undecided vote, he won returning voters by 54-44%. The NEP states that Obama won all voters who did not vote in 2004 by 71-27% and newly registered voters by 69-30%. Therefore, Obama won 82% of the 2% who did not vote in 2004 but did in a prior election (Table 2).


6. The Final NEP is correct in stating that Obama won returning (likely) voters by 50-48%, despite the fact that Obama led the LV polls by 50-43% (McCain needed 100% of the undecided 5%). But McCain was the de-facto incumbent running for Bush’s third term and Bush had 22% approval. The challenger (Obama) typically gets over 70% of the undecided vote, depending on incumbent approval (Table 4).

 

7. The Final NEP is correct in stating that 60.4 million (46%) were returning 2004 Bush voters, despite the fact that Bush had 62 million recorded votes, approximately 3 million (5%) died and 56-57 million (95-97%) of 59m living Bush voters returned in 2008. Therefore, the NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million.  However, if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll (52-47%) then 51 million Bush voters returned in 2008 and the number of returning Bush voters was overstated by 9 million! (Table 8.1).

 

8. The Final NEP is correct in stating that there were just 49 million  (37%) returning Kerry voters despite the fact that Kerry had 59 million recorded votes. Approximately 3 million (5%) died and 53-54 million (95-97%) of 56m living Kerry voters returned in 2008. Therefore, the NEP understated the number of returning Kerry voters by 4 million. However, if Kerry won by 52-47%, the number of returning Kerry voters was understated by 9 million! (Table 8.2)

 

9. The Final NEP is correct in stating 11 million more Bush than Kerry voters returned despite the fact that Bush won by only 3.0m votes (Table 1).

 

10. There is nothing suspicious about the fact that the 2004 Final NEP had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter mix (Gore won by 0.5%), the 2006 Midterm Final NEP an implausible 49/43% Bush/Kerry mix and the 2008 Final an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix.


11.  A plausible explanation for the impossible 46% of the 2008 electorate who claimed to be former Bush voters was that a) they were really returning Kerry voters who loved Bush and wanted to associate with him or b) simply forgot that they voted for Kerry and “falsely recalled” voting for Bush and c) they voted for Obama regardless. The explanation for the impossible 4 million (3%) who claimed to be returning third-party voters was that they were really Bush voters who were ashamed that they voted for him and therefore lied to the exit pollsters.

 

12. The Final NEP is accurate despite the fact that a mathematically impossible returning voter mix was required to match the recorded vote  (Table 1).

 

13. There is nothing odd in the fact that Obama won 52.3% of 121m votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of 10m since (Table 11).

 

14. There is no reason to suspect that votes were uncounted, despite the fact that 5.4 million were uncounted in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004.  Since 70-80% are Democratic (50% in minority districts), the Gore and Kerry vote shares were reduced by 1-2%.

 

15. The 2008 recorded vote share is the True Vote despite the fact that an impossible returning voter mix was required to match the vote.


16. The Election Calculator Model True Vote share (Obama 57.5%) is bogus since the assumptions are not justified. The base case estimate of the number of returning 2004 voters is based on unknown mortality, uncounted vote and turnout rates. But the assumptions are based on historical evidence. More important, a sensitivity analysis shows that incremental changes in the assumptions have minimal impact on the True Vote. Returning voters are calculated for two scenarios: a) the 2004 recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) which assumes a fraud-free election, and b) the 2004 aggregate state exit poll (Kerry 52-47%) which indicates that the election was stolen (Table 12).

 

 

Table 1

2008 National Exit Poll                                                                        

 

2004   Mix    Voted  Obama  McCain Other  Obama  McCain Other

DNV    13%    17.08  71%    27%    2%     12.13  4.61   0.34

Kerry  37%    48.61  89%    9%     2%     43.26  4.37   0.97

Bush   46%    60.43  17%    82%    1%     10.27  49.55  0.60

Other  4%     5.25   66%    24%    10%    3.47   1.26   0.53

 

Total  100%   131.37 52.6%  45.5%  1.9%   69.13  59.80  2.44

                                  Margin 9.33         

 

Table 2

NEP First time voted?

 

         Voted      Mix    Obama    McCain   Other

Yes     14.45      11%    69%      30%      1%

No      116.92      89%    50%      48%      2%

 

Total   131.37      100%   52.1%    46.0%    1.9%

 

 

Table 3

National Exit Poll DNV (13.0%) shares

 

Share Votes   DNV    Mix    Obama  McCain Other

11%   14.45   New    84.6%  69%    30%    1%

2%     2.63   Prior  15.4%  82%    13%    5%

 

13%    17.08  Total  100%   71.0%  27.4%  1.6%

 

 

Table 4

Calculated DNV (15.8%) shares  

 

Share  Votes   DNV   Mix    Obama  McCain Other

11.0%  14.45   New   69.6%  69%    30%    1%

4.80%  6.31    Prior 30.4%  82%    13%    5%

 

15.8%  20.76   Total 100%   73.0%  24.8%  2.2%


 

Table 5

Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before undecided voter allocation (UVA).

 
Poll    Obama    McCain   Other  Undecided

LV (9)  51.00%   43.56%   1.50%  3.94%

RV (3)  52.33%   40.00%   1.50%  6.17%

 

Final RV Polls (before and after 75% Obama UVA)

                                                                     75%  UVA   25%

             Poll             Sample Obama    McCain    Spread    Obama    McCain   Spread

Average     Date              Size      52.3     40.0     12.3     56.96    41.55    15.42

 

Gallup   10/31 - 11/02        2824     53       40       13       57.125   41.375   15.75

ABC/WP   10/31 - 11/02        2762     54       41       13       56.625   41.875   14.75

Pew      10/29 - 11/01        2995     50       39       11       57.125   41.375   15.75

                                                                     

Table 6

Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll average (50/50% UVA).

 

Obama’s 56.2% (18.3m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares of returning 2004 voters.

 

Poll     Obama   McCain Other

LV      52.97% 45.53% 1.50%

RV      55.41% 43.09% 1.50%

 

True Vote based on Obama’s 73% share of DNV and 53% share of returning (LV) voters

 

2004     Mix       Voted   Obama    McCain     Other    Obama    McCain   Other

New      15.80%    20.76   73.0%    24.8%      2.2%     15.14    5.15     0.46

Return   84.20%    110.61  53.0%    45.5%      1.5%     58.63    50.33    1.66

 

Total    100%      131.37  56.2%    42.2%      1.6%     73.77    55.48    2.12

                                          Margin   18.28           

 

Table 7

Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages (75/25 % UVA).

 

Obama’s 57.0% (20.5m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares of returning 2004 voters.

 

Poll    Obama  McCain Other

LV      53.96% 44.55% 1.50%

RV      56.96% 41.55% 1.50%

                 

True Vote based on Obama’s 73% share of DNV and 54% share of returning (LV) voters

 

2004     Mix       Voted   Obama    McCain     Other    Obama    McCain   Other

DNV      15.80%    20.76   73.0%    24.8%      2.2%     15.14    5.15     0.46

Return   84.20%    110.61  54.0%    44.5%      1.5%     59.73    49.22    1.66

 

True Vote 100%     131.37  57.0%    41.4%      1.6%     74.87    54.38    2.12

                                         Margin    20.50


 

Table 8

True Vote based on 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares and 95% turnout of returning 2004 election voters.

 

Scenario 1. Obama’s 55.2% share (15.8m.margin) is based on the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%).

 

2004       Actual   ExitPoll  Voted     Died        Alive    Turnout  Voted08  %Voted  %Alive

Kerry      48.27%   52.0%     59.03     2.83        56.20    95%      53.39     91%      87%

Bush       50.73%   47.0      62.04     2.98        59.06    95%      56.11     108%     102%

Other      1.00%    1.0%      1.22      0.06        1.16     95%      1.11      475%     451%

 

Total      100.0%   100.0%    122.30    5.87        116.43   95%      110.61    100%     95%

                                                                            

 

Turnout    2004     Mix      Voted     Obama       McCain   Other    Obama     McCain   Other

           New      15.8%    20.76     71%         27%      2%       14.74     5.61     0.42

95%        Kerry    40.6%    53.39     89%         9%       2%       47.52     4.81     1.07

95%        Bush     42.7%    56.11     17%         82%      1%       9.54      46.01    0.56

95%        Other    0.8%     1.11      66%         24%      10%      0.73      0.27     0.11

 

         Total    100.0%   131.37    55.21%      43.15%   1.64%    72.53     56.69    2.15

                                                    Margin   15.84                           

                                                                                                                                                          

Scenario 2. Obama’s 57.5% share (21.8m margin) is based on the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%).

 

2004       Actual   ExitPoll  Voted     Died        Alive    Turnout  Voted08   %Voted   %Alive

Kerry      48.27%   52.0%     63.60     3.05        60.54    95%      57.52     85%      80%

Bush       50.73%   47.0%     57.48     2.76        54.72    95%      51.99     116%     110%

Other      1.00%    1.0%      1.22      0.06        1.16     95%      1.11      475%     451%

 

Total      100.0%   100.0%    122.30    5.87        116.43   95%      110.61    100%     95%

                                                                            

Turnout    2004     Mix        Voted   Obama    McCain   Other     Obama      McCain   Other

           New      15.8%      20.76   71%      27%      2%        14.74      5.61     0.42

95%        Kerry    43.8%      57.52   89%      9%       2%        51.19      5.18     1.15

95%        Bush     39.6%      51.99   17%      82%      1%        8.84       42.63    0.52

95%        Other    0.8%       1.11    66%      24%      10%       0.73       0.27     0.11

 

         Total    100.0%     131.37  57.47%   40.86%   1.67%     75.50      53.68    2.20

                                                  Margin    21.82                              


Table 9

2004 vote shares required to match 2008 recorded vote

                                                                                                                

          2004        2008         Required%

2004      Required   Share        of Actual Alive  Voted    Mix       Obama     McCain      Other

DNV                                                 20.77   15.8%     71%       27%         2%

Kerry     54.31      44.4%        92.0%    51.70  49.12    37.4%     89%       9%          2%

Bush      66.76      54.6%        107.6%   63.55  60.37    46.0%     17%       82%         1%

Other     1.23       1.0%         100.0%    1.17  1.11     0.85%     66%       24%         10%

                                                                                                                 

Total     122.30     100%                 110.6    131.37   100%      52.87%    45.52%      1.61%

                                                    Cast    131.37    69.46     59.80       2.11

 

                                                           Recorded    52.87%    45.62%      1.51%

                                                             131.37    69.46     59.94       1.98

 

Table 10

2004 True Vote

                                                                                                               

2000     Recorded  Uncounted  Cast      Alive     Voted     Mix       Kerry     Bush    Other

DNV                                               25.62     20.4%     57%       41%         2%

Gore      51.00     4.04      55.04     52.36     49.74     39.6%     91%       8%          1%

Bush      50.46     1.18      51.64     49.12     46.67     37.1%     10%       90%         0%

Other     3.95      0.16      4.11      3.91      3.72      2.96%     64%       17%         19%

                                                                                                                

Total     105.42    5.38      110.80    105.39    125.74    100%      53.21%    45.42%      1.36%

                                                   Cast     125.74    66.91     57.11       1.72

 

                                                             Recorded  48.27%    50.73%      1.00%

                                                             122.30    59.03     62.04       1.23


 

Table 11

2008 Late Vote Timeline

                                                                                

2008             Total      Obama     McCain    Other      Obama     McCain     Other

Nov.4            121.21     63.44     56.13     1.64       52.34%    46.31%     1.35%

Late             2.93       1.73      1.16      0.03       59.17%    39.66%     1.17%

                                                                                

Nov. 11          124.13     65.18     57.29     1.67       52.50%    46.15%     1.35%

Late             2.37       1.40      0.92      0.05       59.20%    38.73%     2.07%

                                                                                

Nov. 12          126.50     66.58     58.20     1.72       52.63%    46.01%     1.36%

Late             0.75       0.45      0.28      0.02       60.38%    36.71%     2.91%

                                                                                

Nov. 17          127.25     67.03     58.48     1.74       52.68%    45.96%     1.37%

Late             0.86       0.53      0.28      0.05       61.88%    32.54%     5.57%

                                                                                

Nov. 21          128.11     67.56     58.76     1.79       52.74%    45.87%     1.40%

Late             1.09       0.59      0.45      0.06       53.65%    41.23%     5.11%

                                                                                

Nov. 30          129.20     68.15     59.21     1.84       52.75%    45.83%     1.43%

Late             2.17       1.31      0.73      0.13       60.38%    33.50%     6.12%

                                                                                

18-Dec           131.37     69.457    59.935    1.978      52.87%    45.62%     1.51%

Total Late       10.163     6.013     3.809     0.342      59.16%    37.48%     3.36%

 

 

Table 12

Sensitivity Analysis

Uncounted votes and 2004 voter turnout in 2008

 

Determine:

Effect on the number of new (DNV) 2008 voters and Obama’s True Vote share

 

Assumptions:

2004 recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and unadjusted exit poll (Kerry 52-47%) scenarios

4.88% voter mortality over 4 years

75% of 4.06m uncounted votes (135.43m total cast) are Democratic

2008 National Exit Poll vote shares

 

Key Result: Changes in assumptions have very little impact on Obama’s True vote share

 

1. For each 1% increase in voter turnout, Obama’s vote share declines by 0.15%.

2. Given the 2004 recorded vote returning voter scenario, a 3% uncounted vote rate results in a 0.5% increase in Obama’s share.

3. Given the 2004 exit poll returning voter scenario, a 3% uncounted vote rate results in a 0.04% increase in Obama’s share.

4. For each 1% increase in 2004 voter turnout in 2008, new (DNV) voters decrease by 1.2 million.

5. There is a 2.4% difference in Obama’s vote share between the recorded 2004 vote and exit poll returning voter scenarios.

 

                    

 

Based on        2004 Recorded Vote             2004 Exit Poll      

2008                Recorded Cast              Recorded Cast

Vote                131.37 135.43              131.37  135.43

 

Turnout%      DNV    Obama% Obama%        DNV    Obama% Obama%

95            20.8   55.21  55.69         21.71  57.47  57.51 (true vote)

 

96            19.6   55.04  55.53         20.52  57.33  57.37

97            18.4   54.88  55.37         19.32  57.19  57.22

98            17.3   54.71  55.21         18.12  57.04  57.08

99            16.1   54.54  55.05         16.93  56.90  56.94

100           15.0   54.38  54.89         15.73  56.76  56.80