To Believe That Bush Won in 2004, You Must Also Believe …
Updated Oct. 8, 2011
Do you believe the
Final 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)?
Then you must also believe there were 6 million more returning Bush
2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – a 110% turnout.
And you must NOT believe…
- the unadjusted NEP (13,660 respondents) in
which Kerry had a 51.7% vote share.
- the unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate (76,192
respondents) in which Kerry had a 51.1% share.
The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
Given the 2000
recorded vote, 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of
living Bush 2000 voters, Kerry needed just a 73% turnout of Gore voters to TIE
Bush. For Bush to win his 3.0 million recorded vote "mandate”, there had
to be a 64% turnout of Gore voters. If you believe that, there is a great
Chinese restaurant in lower
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Voted |
2004 |
Cast |
Vote shares required to match
recorded vote |
|||
|
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2004 |
2004 |
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout/Alive |
|
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
- |
20.79 |
17.0% |
54% |
44% |
2% |
- |
|
Gore |
55.06 |
51.00 |
48.45 |
47.48 |
45.25 |
37.0% |
90% |
10% |
0% |
93.4% |
|
Bush |
51.76 |
50.46 |
47.93 |
46.97 |
52.59 |
43.0% |
9% |
91% |
0% |
109.7% |
|
Other |
4.01 |
3.96 |
3.76 |
3.69 |
3.67 |
3.0% |
64% |
14% |
22% |
97.5% |
|
Total |
110.83 |
105.42 |
100.15 |
98.14 |
122.30 |
100% |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
-2.46% |
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
|
|
|
Total |
59.03 |
62.04 |
1.22 |
-3.01 |
|
Gore |
49.68% |
48.38% |
|
|
|
Recorded |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
-2.46% |
|
Bush |
46.70% |
47.86% |
|
|
|
122.30 |
59.03 |
62.04 |
1.23 |
-3.01 |
|
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Voted |
2004 |
True Vote |
12:22am NEP Vote shares |
|
||
|
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2004 |
2004 |
Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout/Alive |
|
True Vote |
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
- |
22.56 |
15.6% |
57% |
41% |
2% |
- |
|
49.53% |
Gore |
54.89 |
51.00 |
52.14 |
51.10 |
51.10 |
41.8% |
91% |
8% |
1% |
98.0% |
|
46.71% |
Bush |
51.77 |
50.46 |
49.18 |
48.20 |
48.20 |
39.4% |
10% |
90% |
0% |
98.0% |
|
3.76% |
Other |
4.17 |
3.96 |
3.96 |
3.88 |
3.88 |
3.2% |
64% |
17% |
19% |
98.0% |
|
|
Total |
110.83 |
105.42 |
105.28 |
103.18 |
125.74 |
100% |
52.9% |
45.8% |
1.33% |
7.15% |
|
|
|
Cast |
Recorded |
|
|
|
Total |
66.5 |
57.5 |
1.68 |
8.99 |
|
|
Gore |
49.53% |
48.38% |
|
|
|
Recorded |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
-2.46% |
|
|
Bush |
46.71% |
47.86% |
|
|
|
122.30 |
59.03 |
62.04 |
1.23 |
-3.01 |
Sensitivity Analysis
|
Bush |
|
Kerry
Share |
|
|
|
|
Turnout |
|
Gore
Turnout |
|
|
|
|
52.9% |
64% |
73% |
80% |
96% |
98% |
|
90% |
49.5% |
50.8% |
51.8% |
54.1% |
54.4% |
|
92% |
49.1% |
50.4% |
51.4% |
53.8% |
54.0% |
|
94% |
48.7% |
50.0% |
51.1% |
53.4% |
53.7% |
|
96% |
48.4% |
49.7% |
50.7% |
53.0% |
53.3% |
|
98% |
48.0% |
49.3% |
50.3% |
52.6% |
52.91% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush |
|
Kerry
Margin |
|
|
|
|
Turnout |
|
Gore
Turnout |
|
|
|
|
9.0 |
64% |
73% |
80% |
96% |
98% |
|
90% |
0.7 |
3.9 |
6.4 |
12.2 |
12.9 |
|
92% |
(0.3) |
2.9 |
5.4 |
11.2 |
11.9 |
|
94% |
(1.3) |
1.9 |
4.5 |
10.2 |
10.9 |
|
96% |
(2.3) |
1.0 |
3.5 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
|
98% |
(3.2) |
0.0 |
2.5 |
8.3 |
9.0 |
And you must also believe that …
1-
Myth: The media provided state and
national pre-election and/exit poll data and documented evidence of vote
suppression and miscounts.
Fact : The pollsters
focused on Likely Voter (
2-
Myth: There
are many explanations as to why the exit polls were wrong (see the Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll
Report).
Fact:
But they are myths; none are supported by the evidence. Here are a few of the
most common: Kerry voters were more approachable to be exit polled than Bush
voters who were reluctant to be interviewed; biased interviewers sought out
Kerry voters; returning Gore voters misspoke and said that they voted for Bush
in 2000; exit polls are not
random samples; U.S. exit polls are not designed to catch election fraud; early
exit polls overstated Kerry’s vote; women voted early; Republicans voted late; Gore voters
defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry; the exit
polls “behaved badly”; there was a massive Christian fundamentalist turnout; if
there was a conspiracy, someone would talk (many have). But the myths were not just from the “liberal”
mainstream media. Even Democrats such as Bill Clinton said that Bush won “fair
and square”.
3-
Myth: The
votes were fairly counted (according to Bill Clinton, Al Franken, Michael
Moore) and other “liberal”
media gatekeepers and conservatives).
Fact:
There is no way to prove that
the Touchscreen (DRE) machines were not rigged; there
are no paper ballots. And historical
census voting data indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast as
opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Investigative reporter Greg Palast presented government data which
documented 3 million uncounted votes. And now we know about the
Ohio/Chattanooga “man-in-the-middle” – and the unverifiable vote (mis)counts in all the other states.
4-
Myth:
Democrats failed to attract first-time voters.
Fact: According to the National Exit Poll (NEP), Democrats have won
first-time voters in every election by solid margins since 1992. In 2008 Obama
won new voters by 71-27%. The 2004 NEP timeline indicated that Kerry had 62% of
new voters at 730pm, 59% at 9pm, 57% at 1222am. But the Final NEP is always
forced to match the recorded vote. It indicated that Kerry had just 54% of new
voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.
5-
Myth: Bush’s
48% Election Day approval
rating was not a major factor.
Fact:
In every election since 1976,
presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while those
above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating
and the average national pre-election poll. The correlation was confirmed when
Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%.
6-
Myth:
Bush gained 9% over 2000 in heavily Democratic urban locations and lost 3% in
highly Republican small towns and rural areas.
Fact:
That is an Urban
Legend. Bush lost 3% in Republican small towns and
rural areas.
7- Myth: There is no evidence that the vote count was corrupted.
Fact:
Bush won 51.5% of the first 116m recorded votes. Kerry won 54.6% of the final
5 million.
8-
Myth:
Final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
Fact: After undecided voters were allocated, weighted
pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9%) and national (Kerry 47.2-Bush 46.9%)
polls closely matched the national (50.8-48.2%) and state (51.8-47.2%) exit
polls. Final Zogby Battleground polls showed Kerry leading in 9 critical
states.
9-
Myth: Bogus
assumptions were used in the pre-election 2004
Election Model.
Fact:
The model was based on final state
10-
Myth: There is no evidence that undecided
voters break for the challenger.
Fact:
Historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for the challenger
over 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is unpopular - and Bush
had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported
their late polling indicated Kerry would win 60-80% of the undecided vote.
11-
Myth: Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Fact:
Kerry led Bush by 1% in the state-weighted pre-election average
and by 3% after allocating undecided voters. Kerry and Bush were tied at
47% based on the final national 18-poll average.
12-
Myth: Non-response
bias in the exit
polls was the reason why 43
states red-shifted to Bush.
Fact: Approximately 3 million votes (most in heavily Democratic
minority districts) were never counted. Response
rates were lowest in Kerry urban strongholds.
13-
Myth: It
was just a coincidence that
Fact:
14-
Myth: The exit polls did not indicate that electronic voting machines are
fraudulent.
Fact: All voting methods had high average discrepancies - except for
paper ballots. Lever machine precincts had the highest (11%) discrepancies.
Unverifiable touch screen (DRE) and optical scan precincts had 7%. Paper
ballots just 2%. There were 88 reported touchscreen
vote switching incidents - 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero
probability).
15- Myth:
The exit polls behaved "badly".
Fact: Final state and national
exit polls are ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote. It's standard
operating procedure. But the premise is false: a fraud-free election is
assumed. Uncounted votes alone prove that elections have been anything but
fraud-free. And millions of phantom voters indicated by the Final 2004 National
Exit Poll proves that it cannot be correct.
16- Myth:
Kerry led in the early exit polls, but Bush passed him in the final.
Fact: Kerry led the National Exit Poll (NEP) by a constant 51-48% from
start to end. He led at 4pm (8349 respondents), 730pm (11027) and 1222am
(13047). He led the state aggregate unadjusted exit polls by 52-47%. Bush won
the Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. It is a
mathematical impossibility that 613 additional exit poll respondents could
cause Kerry's 51-48% margin (at 12:22am after the polls closed) to flip to
Bush. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote.
17- Myth:
The margin of error used to calculate probabilities of exit poll discrepancies were too
low.
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities
were near zero. Assuming
zero cluster, WPE-adjusted state exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for
Kerry. For 30%, the MoE was exceeded in 24 states for
Bush. Composite (12:22am)
exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states for Bush;
none for Kerry.
18- Myth:
There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time
Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Fact: The probability of the shift is 1 in 2 million. But 14 exit polls
shifted beyond the MoE - a ZERO probability.
19- Myth:
Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky
stated that respondents were randomly-selected (1% MoE)
in National
Exit Poll notes and in the NEP
Methods Statement.
20- Myth:
Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters.
Fact:
this was contradicted by the Final Exit Poll, which stated that Bush 2000
voters comprised 43% of the respondents, as compared to 37% for Gore
voters. It was also
contradicted by a linear
regression analysis:
non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the
strongest Kerry states, indicating that non-responders were Kerry voters.
21-
Myth:
Fact:
22-
Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix is possible. After all, it's just a poll.
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. It was contrived to force
a match to the recorded vote. This is the incontrovertible proof: Kerry had 7074 (51.71%) of the unadjusted 13660 NEP respondents. Bush had
6414 (46.95%). Of the 13660, 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.50%) said Bush, 1221 (38.37%) said
Gore. When the 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry
has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted
Fact: The mix could not have
from changed from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional
respondents. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6 million) of
the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes
in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush
2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election. Therefore, there were at most 48.0
million returning Bush voters in 2004 - assuming an impossible 100% turnout. If
98% turned out, there were 47.0 million returning Bush voters. That means there had to be 5.6 million (52.6-47.0) phantom voters.
23- Myth: The Democratic
Underground “Game” thread showed
that Bush won with a feasible 39/39% mix.
Fact: In order to force a
match to the recorded vote, NEP vote shares also had to be adjusted to
implausible levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a)
Kerry's share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush's share of Gore
voters increased from 8% to 14.6% and c) Bush 2000 returning voter defection
reduced from 10% to 7.2%.
24-
Myth: The near-zero a correlation between vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and
2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”.
Fact:
“Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on twisted logic by using fraudulent 2000 and 2004
recorded votes to prove no fraud in 2004. There is a strong correlation when the
unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.
These graphs display Recorded (flat regression
line) and True Vote swing vs. Red-shift (sloped line):
Swing Redshift 1992 , Swing Redshift 1996 , Swing Redshift 2000 , Swing Redshift 2004 .
These graphs
display Recorded and True Vote Swing vs. Red-shift by partisanship state
groupings:
2004
Battleground Swing Redshift , 2004
Democratic States Swing Redshift , 2004
Republican States Swing Redshift
25- Myth:
False Recall in the part of Gore voters explains the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore
returning voter mix.
Fact: This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the
book on the False Recall argument. In the unadjusted 2004 NEP (13,660
respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660
respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Bush and 1,221 (38.37%)
said Gore. When the 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares,
Kerry has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted
26- Myth:
An NES survey indicates that "a slow drifting fog" caused Gore voters
to say they voted for Bush.
Fact: NES used 2000 and 2004 (105.4m and 122.3m) recorded votes as a
baseline for the survey, rather than True Votes cast (110.8m and 125.7m). There
were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000,
approximately 4.5 million were Gore votes. Therefore, Gore won the True Vote by
2-3 million - not the 540,000 recorded. Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted
votes. Using the True Vote a baseline shows that the NES respondents did not
misstate who they voted for in 2000.
Fact: Only 25% of respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. The
other 75% 10,000 were asked who they just voted for minutes before. Voters do
not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just
voted a few minutes ago. False recall
was obviously not a factor in the pre-election polls which matched the exit
polls after undecided voters were allocated.
27- Myth:
Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote because they wanted to be
associated with a winner - Bush.
Fact: Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. The majority of
new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave him 25-30% approval.
It was Gore, not Bush, who was the popular vote winner in 2000 by 2-3
million True Votes. So why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush?
It makes no sense.
28- Myth:
Bush gained 12 million new voters in 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new
voters. He had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and 1.0m
did not return to vote in 2004 (assuming 98% turnout). Therefore, approximately
47 million Bush 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004, so he needed 15m (68%) of
22 million new voters to get to 62 million. But according to the 12:22am
National Exit Poll, he had just 41% (9 million) of new voters, a full 27% less
than what he needed. The probability that he had 68% of new voters is ABSOLUTE
ZERO.
29- Myth:
Bush won a 3 million vote "mandate".
Fact: Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes over Bush (actually he won by
2-3 million True votes) so Kerry had a head-start. According
to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry had 57% of new (DNV) voters
(first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). He won returning
Nader voters by 64-17% and 10% of Bush voters. Just 8% of Gore voters defected
to Bush. So how could Bush have won? He needed a massive net defection of Gore
voters. No way.
30- Myth:
The sensitivity analysis showing that Kerry won all
plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Fact: But it is proof beyond a
reasonable doubt when the WORST CASE (implausible) scenario indicates a Kerry
win probability GREATER THAN 90% and the BASE CASE (plausible) scenario
indicates a win probability GREATER THAN 99%.
31- Myth:
Bush’s share of females increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share.
Fact: That's implausible; his share of male
voters declined by 0.2%. In the 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.
32- Myth:
Bush won
Fact: There is plenty of documented evidence of
uncounted and switched votes and massive voter disenfranchisement. Two
election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. In direct violation of standing federal election law, 56 of 88
33- Myth:
Bush won
Fact: The Democrats had a
41-37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 42-39% edge
in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Florida
pre-election polls were trending to Kerry. After allocating the undecided
vote, Kerry led the final 10-poll average by 51.1-48.8%. Kerry was on track to a
200,000 vote win. But Kerry won TS
counties (3.86mm votes) by 51-47% and Bush won OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a
whopping 57-42%. The final Zogby election
day poll had Kerry
leading by 50-47%. Kerry
won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In
2000, Gore won 70% of 180,000 uncounted under/over votes. If counted, he would have won by at
least 60,000 votes. Dan Rather's expose on voting machines proved that poor-quality paper used in
34- Myth:
NY pre-election and final exit polls (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The
unadjusted exit
poll (Kerry 64.1-34.4%) was
wrong.
Fact:
1- In 2000, NY voted 60.5% for Gore, 35.4% for Bush and 4.1% for Nader.
This is just one example of the impossible scenarios that are required to match
the NY vote: a) 100% of returning Nader voters had to break for Bush (he had
17% nationally), b) Bush needed 50% of new voters (he had just 41% nationally),
c) Bush needed 11% of returning Gore voters (he had 8% nationally). The
clincher: Kerry's NY share was 10% higher than his national share. How could
Bush have done so much better in heavily Democratic NY with returning Gore,
Nader and new voters than he did nationally? It is extremely counter-intuitive
and makes no sense.
2- Pre-election likely voter (
3- The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE indicates a 95%
probability that Kerry's vote was between 60.9-67.3% and also within the MoE of the LV poll (which low-balled projected Kerry turnout).
4- Bush
gains from 2000 to 2004 in the 15 largest (Democratic)
35-
Myth: Unlike touchscreens and optical scanners, NY lever voting machines
cannot be programmed to switch votes.
Fact:
Levers are highly vulnerable to fraud. Like touch screen DREs,
there is no verifiable paper ballot. Levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified.
Defective levers were placed in urban precincts; many voters left the precincts
without voting. NY lever advocates refuse to consider this fact: Votes CAST on
levers are COUNTED on unverifiable central tabulators. There were many incidents of Lever
voting machine failure.
36- Myth:
Polling data was cherry-picked and assumptions biased for Kerry.
Fact: The following models all used the exit poll data from 1250
precincts provided by exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky.
The data included partisan response rates and corresponding average within
precinct discrepancies. The models produced equivalent results, confirming the
USCV simulation which had previously debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct Exit Poll
Response Optimizer: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry.
Kerry won the 2-party share: 52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Big Cities,
Kerry also won this category by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry 52.3-47.7%
d) 12:22am NEP “Voted in 2000” demographic: Kerry by 51.9-48.1%
e) Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (70,000 respondents): Kerry by
52.5-47.5%.
