The True Vote Election Calculator

 

TruthIsAll

 

May 4, 2009

 

The True Vote Election Calculator  is an Excel model designed to determine the true state and national popular and electoral vote. The premise is that the recorded votes never reflect the True Vote. In every election, millions of votes are uncounted. In addition, voting machines and central tabulators can be manipulated to produce unverifiable, bogus vote counts.

 

The first step in calculating the True Vote is to determine the number of votes cast in the prior election. The Census provides the net uncounted votes for each state. If total votes cast exceed total votes recorded, there are more uncounted ballots than “stuffed”. If total votes recorded exceed votes cast, there are more “stuffed” than uncounted ballots. In 1988, there were 10 million net uncounted votes; in 2004, 3.44 million.

 

In New York State, there were 307,000 net uncounted votes. There could have been 407,000 uncounted and 100,000 stuffed; we don’t have the detail. In Florida there were 238,000 net stuffed votes. In Ohio, 136,000 net stuffed. The majority (70-80%) of uncounted votes are Democratic (primarily in minority districts).  There is substantial evidence that the majority of stuffed votes are Republican (see Ohio 2004). When uncounted votes are added back, the Democratic vote share increases.

 

Approximately 5% of voters pass on during the 4-year interval between elections. Historically, there has been a 90-98% turnout of living prior election voters in the current election.  Given these estimates, we can approximate the number of returning voters from the prior election. The number of new voters (and others who did not vote in the prior election) is the difference between total votes cast and returning voters.

 

Once we have determined a feasible returning voter mix, we can calculate the True vote by applying National Exit Poll (or user entered) vote shares of returning and new voters. Since vote shares vary in each state; it would not be accurate to use the national share. The model calculates the state vote shares based on the ratio of the recorded state vote share to the national share.

 

Since it is standard operating procedure for the National Exit Poll (NEP) to match the recorded vote, the implicit assumption is that elections are fraud-free. In order to do the match, preliminary exit poll data (weights and vote shares) must be changed for each demographic category. In both elections, the Final NEP mix of returning voters indicated that there were millions more returning Bush 2000 voters in 2004 and returning Bush 2004 voters in 2008 than were alive. Unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls have not been released.

 

For example, in 2004 the Final NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 122 million who voted in 2004 were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died. If all living Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004, simple arithmetic shows that a maximum of 48 million could have voted. Therefore, at least 4.5 million returning Bush voters were phantoms. The fact that the returning voter mix (i.e. the weights) in both the 2004 and 2008 NEP was impossible indicates that the recorded votes were also impossible – in other words, there was massive fraud.

 

 

 

Analysis Summary

 

2008

Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5m (52.9-45.5%) with 365 EV.

 

The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

Unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls have not been released.

 

Assumption: 75% of uncounted 2004 votes were for Kerry.

Calculate a feasible returning voter mix.

 

Consider two scenarios for 2004 returning voters.

 

Scenario 1:  Kerry won the True Vote by the state aggregate unadjusted exit poll (52-47%).

Obama had a 57.2% share and won by 21m votes (75.6-54.5m).

He had 414 electoral votes.

 

Scenario 2:  Bush won by his recorded share of 50.7-48.3%.

Obama had 54.9% and won by 15m votes (72.6-57.6m).

He had 408 electoral votes.

 

2004

Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0m (50.7-48.3%) with 286 EV.

The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

 

Assumption: 75% of uncounted 2000 votes were for Gore.

Calculate a feasible returning voter mix.

 

Consider two scenarios based on Preliminary and Final 2004 NEP vote shares

 

Scenario 1: 12:22am NEP vote shares

Kerry had 53.1% and won by 9.5m votes (66.8-57.3) with 359 electoral votes.

 

Scenario 2: Final NEP vote shares

Kerry had 52.0% and won by 5.5m votes (65.4-59.9) with 327 electoral votes.

(Coincidence: Kerry’s 51.98% share exactly matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share)

 

The model calculates revised vote shares for each state.  

For 2004, unadjusted exit poll shares are used; for 2008, recorded vote shares

 

Let R = the ratio of the state unadjusted exit poll share to the national share.

New York: 2004

R  = 0.645 / 0.520 = 1.24

 

Calculate Kerry’s NY vote shares based on the National Exit Poll shares:

DNV = 70.7% = R * (NEP DNV) = 1.24 * .57

Dem  = 93.2% = (NEP Dem) + (1- NEP DEM) * (R-1) = .91 + .09 * 0.24

Bush = 12.4% = (NEP Bush) + (NEP Bush) * (R-1) = .10 + .10 * 0.24

Other = 79.4% = R * (NEP Other) = R * .64 =1.24*.64

 

The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote. The implicit assumption is a fraud-free election. To match the vote, the unadjusted exit poll weighting mix and/or vote shares are revised. However, if the adjustments are mathematically impossible, as they were in 2004 and 2008, that is a tell-tale sign of fraud. The Final NEP indicated that there were millions more returning Bush in 2004 and 2008 voters than were alive. The 43/47% Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the 2004 NEP and the 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix in 2008 are giveaways. The True Vote model determined a feasible return voter mix for both elections. The result is proof beyond a reasonable doubt that Kerry won by close to10 million and Obama won by over 20 million.

                                                                          

 

 

National Exit Poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 PRELIMINARY

 

 

2004 FINAL

 

 

2008 FINAL

 

 

 

 

12:22am (13047)

 

 

 

13660 sample

 

 

 

17836 sample

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VOTED IN 2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

17%

57%

41%

2%

 

17%

54%

45%

1%

 

DNV

13%

71%

27%

2%

Gore

39%

91%

8%

1%

 

37%

90%

10%

0%

 

Kerry

37%

89%

10%

1%

Bush

41%

10%

90%

0%

 

43%

9%

91%

0%

 

Bush

46%

17%

82%

1%

Other

3%

64%

17%

19%

 

3%

71%

21%

8%

 

Other

4%

66%

24%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share

100%

51.20%

47.50%

1.30%

 

100%

48.48%

51.11%

0.41%

 

 

100%

52.62%

45.94%

1.44%

Votes

122.3

62.62

58.09

1.59

 

122.3

59.29

62.5

0.5

 

 

131.37

69.13

60.35

1.89

 

 

The 2004 Election Calculator Model is based on the physical constraints of the 2000 recorded vote, after adjusting for mortality, uncounted votes and 2000 voter turnout in 2004. Vote shares are based on the 2004 National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” cross tab. The model indicates that Kerry won by 53.2-45.4% (66.9-57.1m).   It proves that for Bush to obtain his 3.0m vote margin, he needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters!

 

 

Matching the 2004 Recorded vote

 

An impossible 86.1% Gore / 107.6% Bush turnout of 2000 election voters was required to match the recorded vote.  The match resulted in 236 electoral votes for Kerry. He had 252.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout of Prior

      Uncounted share

 

Enter 2004 or 2008

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Unctd Rate

Mortality

 Dem

Rep

Dem

Bush

Other

Election

2004

125,737

122,294

3,443

2.74%

4.88%

86.07%

107.64%

75%

24%

1%

 

2000

110,825

105,417

5,408

4.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Kerry Electoral Vote: 236

 

 

 

 

 

Voted2k

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

DNV

18.8%

54.0%

45.0%

1.0%

12,754

10,628

236

23,618

Gore

36.0%

90.0%

10.0%

0.0%

40,769

4,530

0

45,299

Bush

42.2%

9.0%

91.0%

0.0%

4,777

48,304

0

53,081

Other

3.0%

64.0%

8.7%

27.3%

2,393

325

1,021

3,739

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

60,693

63,787

1,257

125,737

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Deviation

 

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1,665

1,746

32

3,443

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Exit Poll (WPE)

51.98%

47.02%

1.00%

63,569

57,500

1,224

 

Deviation

 

-3.71%

3.71%

0.00%

-4,541

4,541

0

 

 

 

Matching the 2008 Recorded vote

 

Scenario 1: Kerry won by 52-47% in 2004.

An impossible 83.9% Kerry / 111.5% Bush turnout of 2004 election voters was required to match the recorded vote. 

 

Scenario 2: Bush won by 50.7-48.3% in 2004.

An impossible 86.9% Kerry / 102.4% Bush turnout of 2004 election voters was required to match the recorded vote. 

 

Both matches resulted in 364 electoral votes for Obama. He had 365.

 

 

Scenario 1: Kerry won by 52-47% in 2004.

 

‘04 exit poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout of Prior

      Uncounted share

 

Enter 2004 or 2008

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Unctd Rate

Mortality

 Dem

Rep

Dem

Bush

Other

Election

2008

132,608

131,370

1,238

0.93%

4.88%

83.88%

111.51%

75%

24%

1%

 

2004

125,737

122,294

3,443

2.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Obama Electoral Vote: 364

 

 

 

 

 

Voted04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

DNV

12.0%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

11,260

4,282

317

15,859

Kerry

40.2%

89.0%

9.0%

2.0%

47,363

4,789

1,064

53,217

Bush

46.9%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

10,549

50,882

621

62,052

Other

0.9%

66.0%

24.0%

10.0%

779

283

118

1,180

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

52.87%

45.53%

1.60%

69,951

60,237

2,120

132,308

Recorded

 

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Deviation

 

0.00%

-0.10%

0.10%

494

301

142

938

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

66,645

1,315

122,294

Exit Poll (WPE)

51.98%

47.02%

1.00%

63,569

57,500

1,224

 

Deviation

 

-3.71%

3.71%

0.00%

-4,541

9,145

91

 

 

 

Scenario 2: Bush won by 50.7-48.3% in 2004.

 

Recorded ’04 vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout of Prior

      Uncounted share

 

Enter 2004 or 2008

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Unctd Rate

Mortality

 Dem

Rep

Dem

Bush

Other

Election

2008

132,608

131,370

1,238

0.93%

4.88%

86.86%

102.44%

75%

24%

1%

 

2004

125,737

122,294

3,443

2.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Obama Electoral Vote: 364

 

 

 

 

 

Voted04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

DNV

13.9%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

13,022

4,952

367

18,341

Kerry

38.8%

89.0%

9.0%

2.0%

45,707

4,622

1,027

51,356

Bush

46.4%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

10,444

50,373

614

61,431

Other

0.9%

66.0%

24.0%

10.0%

779

283

118

1,180

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

52.87%

45.52%

1.61%

69,951

60,230

2,126

132,308

Recorded

 

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Deviation

 

0.00%

-0.10%

0.10%

494

295

149

938

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

66,645

1,315

122,294

Exit Poll (WPE)

51.98%

47.02%

1.00%

63,569

57,500

1,224

 

Deviation

 

-3.71%

3.71%

0.00%

-4,541

9,145

91

 

 

 

2004 True Vote

 

Kerry wins by 9.5 million votes with a 53.1% share and 359 EV

 

Kerry %

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

Bush

 

Kerry  share of returning Gore voters

359

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

12%

349

359

382

404

404

11%

327

349

368

393

404

10%

327

327

359

368

398

9%

327

327

327

359

376

8%

327

327

327

327

368

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turnout of Prior

      Uncounted share

 

 

Enter 2004 or 2008

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Unctd Rate

Mortality

 Dem

Rep

Dem

Bush

Other

 

Election

2004

125,737

122,294

3,443

2.74%

4.88%

98.0%

98.0%

75%

24%

1%

 

 

2000

110,825

105,417

5,408

4.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Kerry Electoral Vote: 359

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Est

 

Voted2k

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

 

 

Kerry

Other

DNV

17.6%

57.0%

41.0%

2.0%

12,593

9,058

442

22,093

 

DNV

57%

2%

Gore

41.0%

91.0%

8.0%

1.0%

46,935

4,126

516

51,577

 

Gore

91%

1%

Bush

38.4%

10.0%

90.0%

0.0%

4,833

43,495

0

48,328

 

Bush

10%

0%

Other

3.0%

64.0%

17.0%

19.0%

2,393

636

710

3,739

 

Other

64%

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

53.09%

45.58%

1.33%

66,754

57,315

1,668

125,737

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

 

 

 2008 Est

 

Deviation

 

4.82%

-5.15%

0.33%

7,726

-4,726

444

3,443

 

 

Obama

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

71.0%

2.0%

2004

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

 

Kerry

89.0%

2.0%

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

 

Bush

17.0%

1.0%

Exit Poll (WPE)

51.98%

47.02%

1.00%

63,569

57,500

1,224

 

 

Other

66.0%

10.0%

Deviation

 

-3.71%

3.71%

0.00%

-4,541

4,541

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 True Vote

 

Obama wins by 21.1 million votes with a 57.2% share and 414 EV

 

Obama %

 

Obama Electoral Vote

 

 

Bush

 

Obama  share of returning Kerry voters

414

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

19%

414

414

414

454

465

18%

414

414

414

420

465

17%

403

414

414

414

454

16%

403

403

414

414

414

15%

388

403

403

414

414

 

 

 

Enter 2004 or 2008

Cast

Recorded

Unctd

Unctd Rate

Mortality

 Dem

Rep

Dem

Bush

Other

 

Election

2008

132,608

131,370

1,238

0.93%

4.88%

98.0%

98.0%

75%

24%

1%

 

 

2004

125,737

122,294

3,443

2.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

Obama Electoral Vote: 414

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Est

 

Voted04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

 

 

Kerry

Other

DNV

10.9%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

10,237

3,893

288

14,419

 

DNV

57%

2%

Kerry

47.0%

89.0%

9.0%

2.0%

55,336

5,596

1,244

62,175

 

Gore

91%

1%

Bush

41.2%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

9,271

44,717

545

54,534

 

Bush

10%

0%

Other

0.9%

66.0%

24.0%

10.0%

779

283

118

1,180

 

Other

64%

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

 

57.16%

41.18%

1.66%

75,624

54,489

2,195

132,308

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

 

 

 2008 Est

 

Deviation

 

4.29%

-4.44%

0.15%

6,166

-5,446

218

938

 

 

Obama

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

71.0%

2.0%

2004

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

 

Kerry

89.0%

2.0%

Recorded

 

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

66,645

1,315

122,294

 

Bush

17.0%

1.0%

Exit Poll (WPE)

51.98%

47.02%

1.00%

63,569

57,500

1,224

 

 

Other

66.0%

10.0%

Deviation

 

-3.71%

3.71%

0.00%

-4,541

9,145

91

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama %

 

Obama National Vote Share

 

 

Obama %

 

Obama National Vote Share

 

Bush

 

Obama  share of returning Kerry voters

 

DNV

 

Obama  share of returning Kerry voters

57.2%

87.0%

88.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

 

57.2%

87.0%

88.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

19.0%

57.0%

57.5%

58.0%

58.5%

58.9%

 

73.0%

56.4%

56.9%

57.4%

57.8%

58.3%

18.0%

56.6%

57.1%

57.6%

58.0%

58.5%

 

72.0%

56.3%

56.8%

57.3%

57.7%

58.2%

17.0%

56.2%

56.7%

57.16%

57.6%

58.1%

 

71.0%

56.2%

56.7%

57.16%

57.6%

58.1%

16.0%

55.8%

56.3%

56.7%

57.2%

57.7%

 

70.0%

56.1%

56.6%

57.0%

57.5%

58.0%

15.0%

55.4%

55.9%

56.3%

56.8%

57.3%

 

69.0%

56.0%

56.5%

56.9%

57.4%

57.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 True Vote Deviations from Recorded Vote and Unadjusted Exit Poll

 

Kerry’s 53.1% National True Vote share was within 1.1% of the Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Poll

   The True State Vote was within 2.0% of the exit poll in 26 states

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry 1222am NEP-adjusted share of

Kerry

Kerry

Kerry

Diff 1

Diff 2

Absolute

Kerry

Gore

Bush

Other

DNV

True Vote

Recorded

Exit

True-Exit

True-Rec

Diff 1< 2.0%

Share

91%

10%

64%

57%

53.08%

48.27%

51.98%

1.10%

4.81%

26

Total

47,022

4,721

2,436

12,559

66,737

59,028

63,569

3,168

7,709

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

89.2%

8.0%

57.0%

48.6%

46.8%

36.8%

41.8%

4.99%

9.99%

 

AK

89.0%

7.7%

55.8%

47.2%

37.7%

35.5%

40.2%

-2.42%

2.23%

 

AZ

89.7%

8.6%

58.9%

50.9%

49.3%

44.4%

44.5%

4.73%

4.88%

 

AR

89.8%

8.7%

59.3%

51.4%

48.6%

44.5%

45.2%

3.35%

4.00%

 

CA

92.4%

11.6%

69.6%

63.7%

59.2%

54.3%

60.1%

-0.92%

4.88%

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

90.7%

9.6%

62.7%

55.4%

49.4%

47.0%

50.1%

-0.69%

2.36%

1

CT

92.8%

12.0%

71.2%

65.5%

61.0%

54.3%

62.3%

-1.27%

6.73%

1

DE

92.6%

11.8%

70.5%

64.7%

59.9%

53.3%

61.3%

-1.38%

6.57%

1

DC

97.7%

17.4%

90.7%

88.9%

87.4%

89.2%

90.6%

-3.22%

-1.82%

 

FL

90.8%

9.8%

63.3%

56.2%

52.1%

47.1%

51.0%

1.08%

4.98%

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

89.3%

8.1%

57.1%

48.8%

46.7%

41.4%

42.0%

4.71%

5.36%

 

HI

92.1%

11.2%

68.2%

62.1%

60.6%

54.0%

58.1%

2.44%

6.54%

 

ID

87.6%

6.2%

50.3%

40.7%

32.9%

30.3%

32.3%

0.67%

2.67%

1

IL

91.8%

10.9%

67.2%

60.8%

58.1%

54.8%

56.6%

1.52%

3.27%

1

IN

89.0%

7.8%

56.0%

47.4%

46.1%

39.3%

40.4%

5.78%

6.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

90.8%

9.8%

63.1%

56.0%

52.2%

49.2%

50.7%

1.43%

2.93%

1

KS

88.4%

7.2%

53.7%

44.8%

41.9%

36.6%

37.2%

4.68%

5.23%

 

KY

88.9%

7.7%

55.6%

47.0%

44.6%

39.7%

39.9%

4.68%

4.88%

 

LA

89.5%

8.4%

58.1%

50.0%

49.2%

42.2%

43.5%

5.71%

7.01%

 

ME

91.6%

10.7%

66.5%

60.0%

55.7%

53.6%

55.6%

0.09%

2.09%

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

92.3%

11.5%

69.3%

63.3%

60.5%

55.9%

59.6%

0.98%

4.63%

1

MA

93.4%

12.7%

73.6%

68.4%

66.2%

61.9%

65.8%

0.46%

4.31%

1

MI

91.4%

10.5%

65.7%

59.0%

54.7%

51.2%

54.4%

0.26%

3.46%

1

MN

91.6%

10.7%

66.6%

60.1%

54.6%

51.1%

55.7%

-1.06%

3.54%

1

MS

90.6%

9.5%

62.2%

54.9%

49.0%

39.8%

49.4%

-0.41%

9.25%

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

90.5%

9.4%

61.9%

54.5%

51.7%

46.1%

49.0%

2.74%

5.64%

 

MT

88.5%

7.2%

53.8%

44.8%

39.5%

38.6%

37.3%

2.22%

0.93%

 

NE

88.4%

7.1%

53.6%

44.6%

38.1%

32.7%

37.0%

1.10%

5.45%

1

NV

91.1%

10.2%

64.6%

57.7%

53.1%

47.9%

52.8%

0.22%

5.17%

1

NH

91.9%

11.0%

67.6%

61.4%

53.9%

50.2%

57.2%

-3.37%

3.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

92.0%

11.1%

67.8%

61.5%

59.6%

52.9%

57.5%

2.12%

6.67%

 

NM

91.2%

10.2%

64.7%

57.9%

54.2%

49.0%

53.0%

1.19%

5.19%

1

NY

93.2%

12.4%

72.7%

67.3%

64.5%

58.4%

64.5%

0.06%

6.16%

1

NC

90.6%

9.5%

62.3%

55.0%

47.8%

43.6%

49.5%

-1.69%

4.26%

1

ND

88.0%

6.7%

52.0%

42.7%

39.3%

35.5%

34.6%

4.69%

3.84%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

91.4%

10.4%

65.4%

58.7%

52.0%

48.7%

54.0%

-2.03%

3.27%

 

OK

87.9%

6.5%

51.4%

42.0%

42.4%

34.4%

33.8%

8.52%

7.92%

 

OR

91.2%

10.2%

64.7%

57.8%

53.3%

51.3%

53.0%

0.34%

1.99%

1

PA

91.5%

10.6%

66.2%

59.6%

54.7%

50.9%

55.1%

-0.38%

3.82%

1

RI

92.7%

11.9%

71.0%

65.3%

65.9%

59.4%

62.1%

3.78%

6.43%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

89.9%

8.8%

59.7%

51.8%

49.0%

40.9%

45.8%

3.24%

8.09%

 

SD

88.2%

6.9%

52.9%

43.7%

39.6%

38.4%

35.9%

3.70%

1.15%

 

TN

89.5%

8.3%

57.9%

49.7%

48.7%

42.5%

43.2%

5.52%

6.17%

 

TX

89.3%

8.1%

57.1%

48.8%

43.8%

38.2%

42.0%

1.80%

5.60%

1

UT

86.9%

5.4%

47.5%

37.3%

33.6%

26.0%

28.1%

5.41%

7.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

93.5%

12.8%

74.1%

69.0%

60.3%

58.9%

66.5%

-6.23%

1.37%

 

VA

90.6%

9.6%

62.5%

55.2%

49.8%

45.5%

49.8%

-0.08%

4.27%

1

WA

91.8%

10.9%

67.4%

61.0%

55.8%

52.8%

56.8%

-0.98%

3.02%

1

WV

89.0%

7.7%

55.9%

47.3%

48.4%

43.2%

40.2%

8.19%

5.24%

 

WI

91.0%

10.0%

64.1%

57.1%

52.5%

49.7%

52.1%

0.42%

2.82%

1

WY

87.6%

6.3%

50.6%

40.9%

32.7%

29.1%

32.6%

0.09%

3.59%

1

 

2008 True Vote Deviations from Recorded Vote

 

Obama’s 57.1% National True Vote share was 4.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% share.

 

2008

Obama  Final NEP-adjusted share of

Obama

Obama

 

 

Diff

Obama

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

True Vote

Recorded

 

 

True-Rec

National

89%

17%

66%

71%

57.11%

52.87%

 

 

4.24%

Total

55,477

9,044

787

10,255

75,563

69,457

 

 

6,106

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

86.1%

12.5%

56.9%

63.2%

47.2%

38.7%

 

 

8.47%

AK

85.9%

12.2%

56.4%

62.8%

45.4%

37.9%

 

 

7.55%

AZ

87.3%

14.4%

60.9%

66.6%

51.2%

44.9%

 

 

6.33%

AR

86.1%

12.5%

57.0%

63.3%

48.4%

38.9%

 

 

9.50%

CA

90.7%

19.6%

71.2%

75.4%

64.9%

61.0%

 

 

3.96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

89.2%

17.3%

66.5%

71.4%

56.9%

53.7%

 

 

3.27%

CT

90.6%

19.5%

71.0%

75.2%

65.8%

60.6%

 

 

5.23%

DE

90.9%

19.9%

71.8%

76.0%

65.7%

61.9%

 

 

3.76%

DC

97.2%

29.7%

91.5%

92.7%

90.2%

92.5%

 

 

-2.22%

FL

88.6%

16.4%

64.7%

69.9%

56.2%

50.9%

 

 

5.30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

87.8%

15.1%

62.2%

67.7%

50.6%

46.9%

 

 

3.75%

HI

92.9%

23.1%

78.2%

81.4%

66.2%

71.8%

 

 

-5.67%

ID

85.5%

11.6%

55.1%

61.7%

40.2%

36.0%

 

 

4.26%

IL

90.9%

19.9%

71.8%

76.0%

62.1%

61.9%

 

 

0.20%

IN

88.4%

16.0%

64.1%

69.4%

50.0%

49.9%

 

 

0.05%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

89.2%

17.3%

66.7%

71.6%

55.8%

53.9%

 

 

1.87%

KS

86.6%

13.4%

58.7%

64.8%

43.7%

41.6%

 

 

2.12%

KY

86.6%

13.2%

58.5%

64.6%

45.3%

41.1%

 

 

4.11%

LA

86.3%

12.8%

57.7%

63.9%

47.1%

39.9%

 

 

7.20%

ME

90.0%

18.6%

69.1%

73.7%

60.2%

57.7%

 

 

2.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

90.9%

19.9%

71.8%

76.0%

64.9%

61.9%

 

 

2.96%

MA

90.9%

19.9%

71.7%

75.9%

68.2%

61.8%

 

 

6.40%

MI

89.9%

18.4%

68.9%

73.5%

59.5%

57.4%

 

 

2.11%

MN

89.2%

17.4%

66.8%

71.7%

59.4%

54.1%

 

 

5.31%

MS

86.9%

13.8%

59.7%

65.6%

53.2%

43.0%

 

 

10.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

88.2%

15.8%

63.7%

69.0%

53.9%

49.3%

 

 

4.65%

MT

87.8%

15.2%

62.3%

67.9%

47.3%

47.2%

 

 

0.15%

NE

86.7%

13.4%

58.8%

64.8%

43.7%

41.6%

 

 

2.15%

NV

89.5%

17.7%

67.5%

72.2%

59.6%

55.1%

 

 

4.50%

NH

89.3%

17.4%

66.8%

71.7%

60.5%

54.1%

 

 

6.40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

89.9%

18.4%

68.8%

73.3%

61.8%

57.2%

 

 

4.60%

NM

89.8%

18.3%

68.6%

73.2%

59.3%

56.9%

 

 

2.36%

NY

91.1%

20.2%

72.4%

76.4%

67.6%

62.8%

 

 

4.85%

NC

88.3%

16.0%

64.0%

69.3%

56.4%

49.7%

 

 

6.68%

ND

87.3%

14.3%

60.6%

66.4%

42.9%

44.5%

 

 

-1.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

88.7%

16.5%

65.0%

70.2%

57.0%

51.4%

 

 

5.67%

OK

85.1%

11.0%

54.1%

60.8%

38.1%

34.4%

 

 

3.73%

OR

89.8%

18.2%

68.5%

73.1%

58.0%

56.7%

 

 

1.30%

PA

89.3%

17.5%

67.0%

71.9%

59.0%

54.5%

 

 

4.47%

RI

91.1%

20.3%

72.6%

76.6%

66.6%

63.1%

 

 

3.48%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

87.3%

14.4%

60.9%

66.6%

52.7%

44.9%

 

 

7.80%

SD

87.3%

14.4%

60.8%

66.5%

43.0%

44.7%

 

 

-1.76%

TN

86.7%

13.4%

58.9%

64.9%

48.0%

41.8%

 

 

6.14%

TX

87.1%

14.0%

60.1%

65.9%

48.3%

43.6%

 

 

4.64%

UT

85.1%

11.0%

54.0%

60.8%

36.6%

34.3%

 

 

2.28%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

92.0%

21.7%

75.4%

79.0%

70.7%

67.5%

 

 

3.22%

VA

88.9%

16.9%

65.8%

70.9%

56.9%

52.6%

 

 

4.22%

WA

89.9%

18.5%

68.9%

73.5%

61.7%

57.4%

 

 

4.24%

WV

86.9%

13.7%

59.4%

65.3%

44.5%

42.6%

 

 

1.93%

WI

89.7%

18.1%

68.2%

72.8%

57.0%

56.2%

 

 

0.74%

WY

84.8%

10.5%

52.9%

59.8%

38.4%

32.5%

 

 

5.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Est

 

Voted04

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Total

 

 

Kerry

Other

DNV

7.1%

76.4%

21.6%

2.0%

417

118

11

546

 

DNV

57%

2%

Kerry

60.3%

91.1%

6.9%

2.0%

4,241

323

93

4,657

 

Gore

91%

1%

Bush

31.2%

20.2%

78.8%

1.0%

487

1,899

24

2,410

 

Bush

10%

0%

Other

1.4%

72.4%

17.6%

10.0%

79

19

11

109

 

Other

64%

19%