2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll

 

TruthIsAll

 

Dec. 20, 2008

 

The latest election results show Obama leading by 9.5m votes (69.46-59.94m), a 52.87-45.62% share of 131.37m. Obama must have done better than the 2008 Final National Exit Poll (NEP) which is always forced to match the recorded vote. He also did better than the 2008 Election Model projection. The 2008 Election Calculator indicates that his vote share was 55-57%.

 

The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in the expected increase in the recorded vote from 2004. There was a 17m net increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m) compared to the 8.8m increase from 2004. The media should be asking why.

 

On Election Day, Obama led by 63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%) with 121.2m votes recorded. Since then, he has a 59.2-37.5% share of the 9.9m late votes recorded. Gore and Kerry also won the late vote by much more than the initial margin.

 

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau publishes its 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.

 

In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares. The Voted in 2004 category indicates an IMPOSSIBLE 46 Bush/37% Kerry returning voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update - before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms.

 

Changes to the prior election mix of returning voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP always move in favor of GOP. The goal is to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election was no different. How does the official 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded margin in 2004 square with the 46/37% returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP? The anomaly is even more ridiculous since Kerry won the 2004 True Vote. The number of returning (motivated) Kerry voters in 2008 had to exceed the number of returning (unmotivated) Bush voters by a similar amount.

 

2004 NEP (Voted in 2000)

The returning Bush/Gore voter mix was 41/39% at 12:22am; it was changed to an impossible 43/37% in the Final. Election stolen.

 

2006 NEP (Voted in 2004)

The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45% at 7pm; it was changed to an implausible 49/43% in the 2008 Final National Exit Poll.

Landslide denied.

 

2008 NEP (Voted in 2004)

The preliminary NEP Bush/Kerry voter mix is not yet available; it is an impossible 46/37% in the Final. Landslide denied.

 

Uncounted votes are an important component in the discrepancy between the polls (pre-election and exit) and the recorded vote. The Democrats ALWAYS do better in the polls than in the vote count. In 2004, Bush won the "official" vote by 50.7-48.3% but Kerry won the preliminary, adjusted 2004 Preliminary 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by 51-48%. The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote without consideration of uncounted and/or switched votes.

 

In the 2000 election, 105.4m votes were recorded out of 110.8m cast. The 5.4m uncounted ballots were a combination of provisional, spoiled, lost and absentees. Therefore, we estimate that Al Gore won by at least 3m votes, not by the 540k recorded.

 

In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast (3.4m were uncounted). The 1.5m net votes to Kerry cut the Bush margin in half. And that is before vote suppression, stuffing and switching. The 2004 Election Calculator indicates that Kerry won by 67-57m, based on a feasible (and plausible) number of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters (4.9% mortality, 95% turnout), 3.45m uncounted votes and 12:22am NEP vote shares.

 

Once again, we need the unadjusted precinct exit poll data, not the Final National and State exit polls that are adjusted to match the recorded vote count. The media never releases that information, claiming the need for voter confidentiality. But analysts are not interested in the names of the respondents, just the pristine precinct exit poll data.

 

An analysis of Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies from 1988-2004 reveals some very interesting information. In the 1988-2000 elections, the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate vote share was within 1% of the recorded vote after it was adjusted to include uncounted votes. But in 2004 adding the uncounted votes was not enough to make up the difference. HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term and many new touch screen voting machines were installed nationwide.

 

The vast majority (90%) of vote-switching incidents at touch screens are from the Democrat to the Republican. We must assume that vote-switching also occurred on the central tabulators which sum the precinct vote totals for all voting machines, including optical scanners. The touch screens have no paper trail, so a vote recount is impossible. But this analysis will focus on uncounted votes.

 

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky report gave the unadjusted state exit poll deviations (WPE) from the recorded vote.

The state exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 52-47%.

 

The  2004 Election Calculator model indicated that Kerry won the True Vote by 53.2-45.8%.

NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 2000 voter weightings.

 

In 2006, the pre-election Generic polls indicated that the Democrats would win by 56-42%.

The 7pm National Exit Poll had the Democrats winning by 55-43%.

The Final NEP was forced to match the 52-46% recorded vote count. 

 

 

2008 Election Model and 2008 Election Calculator

 

Election Model (Final projection)

Scenario 1: Obama won 60% of the undecided votes (base case)

He won by 53.1-44.9% with an expected 365.3 electoral votes.

 

Scenario 2: Obama won 75% of the undecided votes

He won by 53.8-44.2% with an expected 379.5 electoral votes.

 

Final 2008 NEP (Voted 2004)

Obama won by 52.6-45.5%. The returning voter mix was impossible.

 

Election Calculator (post-election)

Scenario 1: Final 2008 NEP vote shares with the returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote.

Obama won by 55.7-42.7%  (75.4-57.8m).

 

Scenario 2: Final 2008 NEP vote shares with the returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 state exit polls (WPE/IMS method)

Obama won the True Vote by 57.5-40.8% (77.9-55.3m).

 

 

2008 Final National Exit Poll

 

 

Actual NEP: 2004 returning voter mix forced to match the 2008 recorded vote

Obama margin: 9.3m

 

Implied

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

17.08

13%

71%

27%

2%

12.1

4.6

0.3

42.5%

Kerry

48.61

37%

89%

9%

2%

43.3

4.4

1.0

52.9%

Bush

60.43

46%

17%

82%

1%

10.3

49.6

0.6

4.6%

Other

5.25

4%

66%

24%

10%

3.5

1.3

0.5

114.3

Total

131.37

100%

52.62%

45.52%

1.86%

69.13

59.80

2.44

 

 

Note: Of those who did not vote in 2004, Obama won 68% of first-timers and 88% of others who voted prior to 2004.

 

 

2008 Election Calculator

 

Scenario 1: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 recorded vote and

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

 

a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).

b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

Recorded

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Vote

DNV

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

15.4

5.9

0.4

48.27%

Kerry

55.72

41.1%

89%

9%

2%

49.6

5.0

1.1

50.73%

Bush

56.86

42.0%

17%

82%

1%

9.7

46.6

0.6

1.00%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.1

 

Total

135.43

100.0%

55.69%

42.66%

1.65%

75.43

57.77

2.23

 

Scenario 2: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll and

2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008

 

a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.

b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.

 

2004 Unadj.

2004

Total

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Exit Poll

DNV

21.71

16.0%

71%

27%

2%

15.4

5.9

0.43

52.0%

Kerry

59.13

43.7%

89%

9%

2%

52.6

5.3

1.18

47.0%

Bush

53.44

39.5%

17%

82%

1%

9.1

43.8

0.53

1.0%

Other

1.14

0.8%

66%

24%

10%

0.8

0.3

0.11

 

Total

135.43

100%

57.51%

40.82%

1.67%

77.88

55.28

2.27

 

 

 2004 Election Calculator

 

Returning voter mix based on 2000 Recorded vote

 

 

 

2000 Recorded

 

Gore

Bush

Other

Total

51.004

50.456

3.957

105.417

48.38%

47.86%

3.75%

 

Uncounted

 

 

4.039

1.077

0.269

5.385

75%

20%

5%

4.86%

 

 

 

2004 Recorded

 

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

59.027

62.041

1.225

122.293

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

 

Uncounted

 

 

 

2.588

0.794

0.069

3.450

75%

23%

2%

2.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Calculated

 

 

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

 

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

25.62

20.4%

57%

41%

2%

Gore

51.00

4.04

55.04

2.72

52.32

 

95%

49.70

39.5%

91%

8%

1%

Bush

50.46

1.08

51.53

2.48

49.06

 

95%

46.60

37.1%

10%

90%

0%

Nader/other

3.96

0.27

4.23

0.21

4.02

 

95%

3.82

3.0%

64%

17%

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

105.42

5.38

110.80

5.41

105.39

 

100.13

125.74

100%

53.23%

45.39%

1.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

125.74

66.94

57.07

1.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

Kerry National Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry National Vote

 

Gore share of

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry share of

 

 

 

 

Uncounted in 2000

Gore Voter Turnout

 

 

 

Gore voters

Share of New voters (DNV in 2000)

53.2%

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

99.0%

 

53.2%

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95.0%

53.3%

53.6%

53.9%

54.2%

54.5%

 

95.0%

54.0%

54.4%

54.8%

55.2%

55.6%

85.0%

53.0%

53.3%

53.6%

53.9%

54.1%

 

93.0%

53.2%

53.6%

54.0%

54.4%

54.8%

75.0%

52.7%

52.9%

53.2%

53.5%

53.8%

 

91.0%

52.4%

52.8%

53.2%

53.6%

54.0%

65.0%

52.3%

52.6%

52.9%

53.2%

53.5%

 

89.0%

51.6%

52.0%

52.4%

52.8%

53.3%

55.0%

52.0%

52.3%

52.6%

52.9%

53.1%

 

87.0%

50.8%

51.2%

51.7%

52.1%

52.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.87

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

99.0%

 

9.87

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95.0%

10.1

10.8

11.5

12.3

13.0

 

95.0%

11.8

12.8

13.8

14.9

15.9

85.0%

9.2

10.0

10.7

11.4

12.2

 

93.0%

9.8

10.8

11.9

12.9

13.9

75.0%

8.4

9.1

9.9

10.6

11.3

 

91.0%

7.8

8.8

9.9

10.9

11.9

65.0%

7.6

8.3

9.0

9.8

10.5

 

89.0%

5.8

6.9

7.9

8.9

9.9

55.0%

6.8

7.5

8.2

8.9

9.6

 

87.0%

3.8

4.9

5.9

6.9

7.9