The Urban Legend: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 

TruthIsAll

 

Election 2004: The Urban Legend by Michael Collins (autorank) provides convincing evidence that Bush’s urban vote shares were implausible.

 

The purpose of this analysis is to provide additional support for Collins’ findings. The focus is on the National Exit Poll location-size and regional demographic categories. We will look at the Final 2000 NEP, the 2004 NEP (updated at 7:33pm on Election Day) and the Final 2004 NEP (updated at 2pm the following day). Since the Final NEP is matched to the recorded vote, it can be used to show that the changes in Bush urban and suburban vote shares from 2000 were implausible In addition, a detailed table of changes in the recorded New York county vote provides further confirmation that the Bush “mandate” is a myth.

 

Another objective of this study was to determine a plausible combination of vote shares for each of the five location categories. The 7:33pm NEP "location-size" vote shares were adjusted (Table 5) to match the True Vote (Kerry by 52.6-46.4%) which  was previously calculated using feasible weights applied to the 12:22am NEP "Voted 2000" vote shares (Table 7). A sensitivity analysis table displays the effects of various Urban and Small Town/Rural vote share scenarios on Kerry's True Vote.

 

The National Exit Poll regional weightings matched the aggregate regional state exit poll weightings. Adjustments were made to state vote shares. The "pristine" state average WPE morphed to the Composite (weighted average of Pre-election and Best Survey estimates) and then to the Final (matched to the Recorded vote). Kerry's aggregate state exit poll share was 51.8% (324 electoral votes). The Margin of Error was exceeded in 29 of 50 states for Bush.

 

Science works by assuming that the hypothesis that best fits the data is correct. But it must be tested against new data, which either firms the hypothesis or causes it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. Twenty-one data tables categorized in three groups (location-size, region, New York State) display the full analysis. The tables provide the best evidence that the Urban Legend of a Bush "mandate" is a faith-based myth. The reality is that the true Kerry mandate was hijacked.

 

The County Vote Database  is a downloadable Excel workbook which contains a full set of 2000 and 2004 recorded data. One can easily screen the database using the Custom Auto Filter option to view changes in state/county recorded votes and other statistical measures.  The following states have been placed in individual worksheets for further analysis: CA, NY, OH, FL, NJ

 

The Urban Legend is obvious when one compares the Final 2000 and 2004 National Exit Poll location-size demographic percentages:

 

1. Bush’s vote count increased by 57% in traditional Democratic urban areas and by 30% in suburban locations. At the same time, his vote count declined by 5% in Republican small towns and rural areas.

 

2. Bush’s vote share increased by 9% in traditional Democratic urban areas and by 3% in suburban locations. At the same time, his vote share declined by 3% in Republican small towns and rural areas.

 

3. The 7:33pm National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry won the location-size demographic by 50.6-47.6%. The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” the 7:33pm vote shares.

 

4. Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky Jan. 2005 report revealed that Urban and Suburban locations had the highest WPE discrepancies while Rural Areas and Small Towns had the lowest. The highest regional discrepancies were in the East and West.

 

5. Kerry was a 51.7-47.2% winner after adjusting Final NEP location-size demographic vote shares by WPE.

6. Kerry was a 51.8-47.3% winner after adjusting Final NEP regional demographic vote shares by WPE.

 

The New York Urban Legend

1. Kerry won three NY exit poll measures by an average of 64.1%.  His recorded share was 58.5%.

2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest national Within Precinct Error (10.6%). New York votes 99% by Lever.

3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.

4. Kerry’s NY vote share was 10% higher than his national share. His NY “Voted 2000” shares must have exceeded the national shares.

5. Kerry won 64.3% of the final 499k recorded (absentee?) votes (exactly matching the exit poll) and just 57.9% of the initial 6.89m votes;

    Gore won 65.4% of the final 552k recorded (absentee?) votes and 59.8% of the initial 6.27m votes.

6. Kerry won approximately 75% of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).

7. Kerry had his highest shares in the four NY counties which had the highest rates of voting incidents.

8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from 2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.

 

9. Kerry won returning Nader voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by 16%. Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush. If we conservatively assume that Kerry’s share of New and former NY Gore voters was just 1% higher than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match the official count!  The net defection rate would have to flip from Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY share by over 5%? Do you believe in magic?

 

10.  Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban locations but did not do well in Republican small towns and rural areas. Seven strongly Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total New York State recorded vote; Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%) over his 2000 vote; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%) over the Gore vote; Nader lost 89k. In the other counties, Bush had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%). 

 

11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of returning Nader voters, Kerry would have had a 72-27% margin in the seven countiesassuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected and only 8% of Gore voters did. Assuming the net 2% defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73-26% margin in the seven counties. So how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% net increase in Bush margin!

 

 

Spreadsheet Tables

 

Location-size stats

1. 2000 Final NEP - matched to recorded vote

2. 2004 Final NEP - matched to recorded vote

3. Vote share Changes: 2000 to 2004

4. 7:33pm NEP

5. NEP - vote shares adjusted to obtain True Vote (7)

6. Vote share summary

7. True Vote (based on Voted 2000 feasible weights)

8. Location-size WPE

9. Final NEP -WPE adjusted (total Census votes)

10. Final NEP -WPE adjusted

 

Regional Stats

11. Regional NEP (7:33pm and Final)

12. Regional NEP -WPE adjusted aggregate<

13. States exceeding MoE (Region/Time-zone)

14. Regional analysis (Electoral Vote)

15. State Exit Polls (WPE)

 

New York State

16. Pre-election and exit polls

17. Voting machine by WPE

18. NY county vote changes

19. Seven largest NYC area counties

20. NY county vote (2000-2004)

21. NY county vote margin change analysis

 

 

Kerry NEP Vote Shares

 

Table        

     Final NEP (13660 respondents, matched to recorded vote)

2   Location...48.1%

11 Region......48.2%

    

      NEP (7:33 update, 11027 respondents)

4   Location...50.6%

11 Region......50.5%

 

      Final NEP (WPE-adjusted vote shares)

10 Location...51.7% (state aggregate)

12 Region......51.8%

15 State.........51.8%

 

 

NEP Location-size Demographic

Bush Vote Changes from Final 2000 NEP

to 7:33pm update and Final 2004 NEP

 

NEP     2000  2004   2000   2004   --Change--

Size    Bush  Bush   Share  Share  Vote   Pct

 

Final

Table 2

Urban  10.8  17.0   35.7%  44.8%  6.2    57%

Suburb 22.1  28.6   49.0%  52.0%  6.5    30%

Rural  17.2  16.4   59.0%  56.0%  -0.8   -5%

                                        

Total  50.1  62.0   48.4%  50.7%  11.9   23.7%

 

7:33pm

Table 4

Urban  10.8  16.2   35.7%  41.5%  5.4    50%

Suburb  22.1  26.4   49.0%  49.0%  4.3    19%

Rural  17.2  15.6   59.0%  54.1%  -1.6   -9%

 

TOTAL  50.1  58.2   48.4%  47.6%  8.1    16.2%

 

Final

(WPE-adj)

Table 10

Urban  10.8  15.5   35.7%  40.9%  4.7    44%  

Suburb  22.1  26.4   49.0%  48.0%  4.3    19%

Rural  17.2  15.9   59.0%  54.1%  -1.3   -8%

 

Total  50.1  57.8   48.4%  47.2%  7.7   15.4%

 

True Vote

Table 5

(122.3m)

Urban  10.8  14.8   35.7%  39.0%  4.0    37%  

Suburb  22.1  26.4   49.0%  48.0%  4.3    19%

Rural  17.2  15.6   59.0%  53.0%  -1.6   -9%

 

Total  50.1  56.8   48.4%  46.4%  6.7   13.4%

 

 

Final 2000 NEP (Table 1):

Gore urban margin:                7.8m

Bush suburban margin:           0.9m

Bush small town/rural margin: 6.4m

 

Final 2004 NEP (Table 2):

Kerry urban margin:              3.5m (-4.3m)

Bush suburban margin:           2.8m (+1.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 3.9m (-2.5m)

 

7:33pm 2004 NEP (Table 4)

Kerry urban margin:               6.0m (-1.8m)

Kerry suburban margin:          0.0m (+0.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.4m (-4.2m)

 

2004 True Vote (Table 5):

Kerry urban margin:                8.2m (+0.4m)

Kerry suburban margin:           1.7m (+2.6m)

Bush small town/rural margin:   2.1m (-4.3m)

 

Implausible Changes in Final NEP Bush shares from 2000 to 2004:

1. 9% increase in the Urban vote (Democratic strongholds)

2. 3% increase in the Suburban vote (trending Democratic)

3. 3% decrease in the Small Town/Rural vote (Republican strongholds)

 

The graphs display Bush vote share statistics by location size.

 

Vote share (5 categories)

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2004NEPSensitivity_28869_image001.png

 

Vote share (3 categories and national)

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2004UrbanLegend_10764_image001.png

 

Vote count (in millions)

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2004UrbanLegend_17168_image001.png

 

Vote change from 2000 (in millions)

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2004UrbanLegend_14794_image001.png

 

Vote percentage change from 2000

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2004UrbanLegend_15606_image001.png

 

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Table 1                                                                                                

 

2000 Final National Exit Poll (matched to recorded vote)

                                   

                           Vote Share           Votes (mil.)              

             Votes   Mix    Gore   Bush   Nader  Gore   Bush   Other  Margin

Big Cities    9.4    9%     71%    26%    3%     6.7    2.5    0.3    4.2

Small Cities  21.0   20%    57%    40%    3%     11.9   8.4    0.6    3.6

Suburbs       45.0   43%    47%    49%    4%     21.2   22.1   1.8    -0.9

SmTwns        5.2    5%     38%    59%    3%     2.0    3.1    0.2    -0.1

Rural        24.1   23%    37%    59%    4%     8.9    14.2   1.0    -5.3

                                                             

Total         104.8  100%   48.4%  47.9%  3.7%   50.7   50.3   3.8    0.5

                                                             

Urban         30.4   29%    61%    36%    3%     18.6   10.9   0.9    7.8

Suburbs       45.0   43%    47%    49%    4%     21.2   22.1   1.8    -0.9

Rural         29.3   28%    37%    59%    4%     10.9   17.3   1.1    -6.4

                                                             

Total         104.8  100%   48.4%  47.9%  3.7%   50.7   50.3   3.8    0.5

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                           

Table 2                                                                                                

 

2004 Final National Exit Poll (matched to recorded vote)                            

11/03 at 2:04pm

  

5 categories

                            Vote Share          Votes (mil.)              

Size          Votes  Weight Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other  Margin

Big City      15.9   13%    61%    39%    0%     9.7    6.2    0.0    3.5

Small City    22.0   18%    49%    49%    2%     10.8   10.8   0.4    0.0

Suburbs       55.0   45%    47%    52%    1%     25.9   28.6   0.6    -2.8

Small Town    9.8    8%     48%    50%    2%     4.7    4.9    0.2    -0.2

Rural         19.6   16%    40%    59%    1%     7.8    11.6   0.2    -3.7

                                                                    

TOTAL         122.3  100%   48.2%  50.7%  1.1%   58.9   62.0   1.4    -3.2

                                                                    

3 categories

Urban         37.9   31%    54.0%  44.8%  1.2%   20.5   17.0   0.4    3.5

Suburbs       55.0   45%    47.0%  52.0%  1.0%   25.9   28.6   0.6    -2.8

Rural         29.4   24%    42.7%  56.0%  1.3%   12.5   16.5   0.4    -3.9

 

TOTAL         122.3  100%   48.2%  50.7%  1.1%   58.9   62.0   1.4    -3.2

                                                             

____________________________________________________________________

 

 

                                                                                                           

Table 3                                                                                                

 

Final NEP Vote share Changes: 2000 to 2004

 

5 categories

                            Vote Share          Votes (mil.)              

              Votes  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other  Margin

Big City      6.5    4%     -10%   13%    -3%    3.0    3.7    -0.3   -0.7

Small City    1.1    -2%    -8%    9%     -1%    -1.2   2.4    -0.2   -3.6

Suburbs       10     2%     0%     3%     -3%    4.7    6.6    -1.3   -1.9

Small Town    4.5    3%     10%    -9%    -1%    2.7    1.8    0.0   0.9

Rural Areas   -4.5   -7%    3%     0%     -3%    -1.1   -2.7   -0.8   1.6

                                                             

Change        17.6   0%     -5%    16%    -11%   8.1    11.8   -2.5   -3.7

                                                             

Urban         7.5    2%     -7%    9%     -2%    1.8    6.2    -0.5   -4.3

Suburbs       10.0   2%     0%     3%     -3%    4.7    6.6    -1.3   -1.9

SmTwn/Rural   0.0    -4%    5%     -3%    -2%    1.6    -0.9   -0.7   2.5

                                                             

Change       17.6    0%     -2%    9%     -7%    8.1    11.8   -2.5   -3.7

                                                                                                           

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                           

 

Table 4                                                                                                

 

2004 NEP (11027 respondents)                                                                                                          

11/02 at 7:33pm                                                                                                          

 

 

5 Categories

 

Location      Votes  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other  Margin

Big City      15.9   13%    64%    35%    1%     10.2   5.6    0.2    4.6   

Small City    23.2   19%    52%    46%    2%     12.1   10.7   0.5    1.4   

Suburbs       53.8   44%    49%    49%    2%     26.4   26.4   1.1    0.0   

Small Town    9.8   8%     51%    47%    2%     5.0    4.6    0.2    0.4   

Rural         19.6   16%    42%    56%    2%     8.2    11.0   0.4    -2.8  

                                                                    

TOTAL         122.3  100%   50.6%  47.6%  1.9%   61.8   58.2   2.3    3.6   

 

3 Categories

Urban         39.1   32%    56.9%  41.5%  1.6%   22.2   16.2   0.6    6.0

Suburbs       53.8   44%    49.0%  49.0%  2.0%   26.4   26.4   1.1    0.0

Rural         29.4   24%    45.0%  53.0%  2.0%   13.2   15.6   0.6    -2.4

 

TOTAL         122.3  100%   50.6%  47.6%  1.9%   61.8   58.2   2.3    3.6

 

 

 Sensitivity Analysis I

 

                        Kerry Urban Share                                  

      SmTwn   54%   55%   56%   57%   58%   59%   60%  

      Rural           Kerry National Share 

       41%    48.6%  48.9%  49.3%  49.6%  49.9%  50.2%  50.5% 

       42%    48.9%  49.2%  49.5%  49.8%  50.1%  50.4%  50.7% 

       43%    49.1%  49.4%  49.7%  50.0%  50.4%  50.7%  51.0% 

       44%    49.4%  49.7%  50.0%  50.3%  50.6%  50.9%  51.2% 

       45%    49.6%  49.9%  50.2%  50.5%  50.8%  51.1%  51.5% 

       46%    49.8%  50.1%  50.5%  50.8%  51.1%  51.4%  51.7% 

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                           

     

Table 5                                                                                                

 

2004 NEP (adjusted)                                                                                                  

Size of Community                                                                                                       

 

Vote shares adjusted to match True Vote (Table 7)

125.74m total votes cast (Census)

  

                           Vote Share           Votes (mil.)                     

             Votes   Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other  Margin

Big City      16.35  13%    67%    32%    1%     11.0   5.2    0.2    5.7

Small City    22.63  18%    55%    44%    1%     12.5   10.0   0.2    2.5

Suburbs       56.58  45%    51%    48%    1%     28.9   27.2   0.6    1.7

Small Town    10.06  8%     52%    47%    1%     5.2    4.7    0.1    0.5

Rural         20.12  16%    43%    56%    1%     8.7    11.3   0.2    -2.6

                                                             

Total        125.74  100%   52.6%  46.4%  1.0%   66.1   58.3   1.3    7.8

                                                             

Urban         38.98  31%    60%    39%    1%     23.4   15.2   0.4    8.2

Suburbs       56.58  45%    51%    48%    1%     28.9   27.2   0.6    1.7

SmTwn/Rural   30.18  24%    46%    53%    1%     13.9   16.0   0.3    -2.1

                                                             

Total         125.74 100%   52.6%  46.4%  1.0%   66.1   58.3   1.3    7.8

   

  

  Sensitivity Analysis II

 

                   Kerry Share of Urban               

     SmallTwn  56%   58%   60%   62%   64%

     Rural     Kerry National Share 

      48%     51.8%  52.5%  53.1%  53.7%  54.3%

      47%     51.6%  52.2%  52.8%  53.5%  54.1%

      46%     51.4%  52.0%  52.6%  53.2%  53.8%

      45%     51.1%  51.7%  52.4%  53.0%  53.6%

      44%     50.9%  51.5%  52.1%  52.7%  53.4%

   

____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 6                                                                                                

Vote Share Summary

 

       2000 Final    2004 7:33pm   Final        True Vote    

       Gore   Bush   Kerry  Bush   Kerry  Bush   Kerry  Bush  

Urban   61%   36%    57%    41%    54%    45%    60%    39%   

Suburb  47%   49%    49%    49%    47%    52%    51%    48%   

Rural   37%   59%    45%    53%    43%    56%    46%    53%   

  

Total  48.4%  47.9%  50.5%  47.6%  48.1%  50.7%  52.6%  46.4% 

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                           

 

Table 7                                                                                                

 

2004 National Exit Poll

True Vote Calculation

 

Voted 2000 feasible weights                                                                                                    

                                                                                                           

Assumptions:                                                                                                   

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

Election 2000 voters:

95% turnout in 2004

0.87% annual mortality                                                                                                

12:22am NEP Vote shares                  

 

                     Vote Share           Votes (mil.)              

       Votes  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other 

DNV    27.02  21.5%  57%    41%    2%     15.40  11.08  0.54  

Gore   48.08  38.2%  91%    8%     1%     43.75  3.85   0.48  

Bush   47.56  37.8%  10%    90%    0%     4.76   42.80  0.00  

Other  3.08   2.5%   71%    21%    8%     2.19   0.65   0.25  

                                                             

Total  125.7  100%   52.6%  46.4%  1.0%   66.1   58.48  1.3   

   

____________________________________________________________________

   

Table 8

 

Size of Location

WPE (Within Precinct Error)

 

The largest discrepancies (WPE) were in the Suburbs (4.5m) and Cities (3.3m).

The deviations were calculated from the

a) Final NEP (matched to the vote) and

b) Final NEP with WPE-adjusted location vote shares.

 

Note the match in vote shares between the 7:33pm NEP (Kerry 51.40-47.47%) and WPE-adjusted Final NEP (Kerry 51.73-47.15%).

 

Location           WPE

Size      Mix   Mean Median Abs    Precincts    

BigCity   13%   7.9  -5.9   12.1   105                              

SmallCity 18%   8.5  -7.7   14.3   236                              

Suburb    45%   8.1  -7.9   14.3   487                              

SmallTown  8%   4.9  -5     12.8   126                              

Rural     16%   3.6  -3.6   13.4   296                                            

 

Wtd Avg   100% 7.1   -6.7   13.75 1250                                                                                          

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 9                                                                                                                                    

 

Final NEP: WPE-adjusted

(Census total votes cast)

                                                                                    Vote  (mil.)   

             WPE  Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other   Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City     7.9% 16.3 13% 65.0% 35.0% 0%      10.6   5.7  0.0   4.9

Sm City      8.5% 22.7 18% 53.3% 44.7% 2%      12.1  10.1  0.5   1.9

Suburbs      8.1% 56.6 45% 51.0% 48.0% 1%      28.9  27.1  0.6   1.8

SmTwn        4.9% 10.1  8% 50.5% 47.5% 2%       5.1   4.8  0.2   0.3

Rural        3.6% 20.1 16% 41.8% 57.2% 1%       8.4  11.5  0.2  -3.1

 

Total       7.1% 125.7 100% 51.7% 47.2% 1.1%   65.0  59.3  1.4   5.8      

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 10

 

Final NEP                                                                                                                   

Location-size Vote shares WPE-adjusted                                                             

 

              Vote   Mix    WPE    Kerry  Bush  Other  Kerry  Bush   Other  Margin

Big City      15.9   13%    7.9    65.0%  35.1%  0.0%   10.3   5.6    0.0    4.7

Small City    22.0   18%    8.5    53.3%  44.8%  2.0%   11.7   9.9    0.4    1.8

Suburbs       55.0   45%    8.1    51.1%  48.0%  1.0%   28.1   26.4   0.6    1.7

Small Town    9.8   8%     4.9    50.5%  46.6%  2.0%   4.9    4.7    0.2    0.2

Rural         19.6   16%    3.6    41.8%  57.2%  1.0%   8.2    11.2   0.2    -3.0

                                                                    

TOTAL        122.3   100%   7.1    51.7%  47.2%  1.1%   63.2   57.8   1.4    5.4

                                                                    

Urban         37.9   31%    8.3    58.0%  40.9%  1.1%   22.0   15.5   0.4    6.5

Suburban      55.0   45%    8.1    51.1%  48.0%  1.1%   28.1   26.4   0.6    1.7

Rural         29.4   24%    4.0    44.6%  54.1%  1.4%   13.1   15.9   0.4    -2.8

 

Total        122.3   100%   7.1    51.7%  47.2%  1.1%   63.2   57.8   1.4    5.4

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 11

 

Regional NEP

 

                       7:33am update                   2pm Final

       Vote   Mix    Kerry Bush    Other         Mix    Kerry Bush Other

East   26.91  22%    58%    41%    1%            22%    56%    43%    1%

Midwest 31.80 26%    50%    49%    1%            26%    48%    51%    1%

South  37.91  31%    44%    54%    2%            32%    42%    58%    0%

West   25.68  21%    53%    45%    2%            20%    50%    49%    1%

                                                                    

Total         100%   50.5%  48.0%  1.5%          100%   48.2%  51.1%  0.7%

Vote          122.3  61.8   58.6   1.9                  59.0   62.5   0.8

 

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 12

Regional NEP

WPE-adjusted aggregate

 

         Vote   Mix   Kerry Bush Other

East     27.2   22.2% 60.3% 39.0% 0.7%

Midwest  30.9   25.3% 51.4% 47.8% 0.8%

South    39.3   32.2% 44.9% 54.4% 0.7%

West     24.8   20.3% 54.2% 44.4% 1.4%

 

Total    122.3  100%  51.8% 47.3% 0.9%

                      63.3  57.8  1.2

____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 13

 

Number of States where Exit Poll MoE was exceeded for Bush(zero cluster effect):

 

By Time Zone           By Region

East       14 of 21   East        8 of 12

Central     7 of 16   Midwest     6 of 12

Mountain     5 of 8   South        7 of 13

Pacific      3 of 5   West        8 of 13

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 14

 

Regional Analysis

 

EV      Region Electoral vote

Vote    Region Popular vote (in thousands)

KE      Kerry Exit Poll Vote

KV     Kerry Recorded Vote

 

KEP    Kerry Exit Poll share

KVP    Kerry Recorded share

 

WPE   Within Precinct Error (average) = 2*(KEP-KVP)

KEV   Kerry Electoral vote (based on KE)

 

Region     EV        Vote     Mix     WPE     KE       KV       KEP     KVP    KEV

East       122       27,177   22.2%   9.21%   16,376   15,124   60.3%   55.7%   117      

Midwest    124       30,940   25.3%   5.96%   15,889   14,966   51.4%   48.4%    85      

South      168       39,324   32.2%   5.66%   17,662   16,550   44.9%   42.1%    27      

West       124       24,844   20.3%   8.18%   13,461   12,445   54.2%   50.1%    96      

 

Total      538       122,284   100%    7.0%   63,388    59,085   51.8%   48.3%   325

                                                                                   

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Table 15

 

State Exit Poll Vote shares

(based on average WPE discrepancies )

 

KEV   Kerry Electoral vote (based on KE)

Vote   Total state recorded vote

 

KE     Kerry Exit Poll Share

KV    Kerry Recorded Share

 

BE     Bush Exit Poll Share

BV    Bush Recorded Share

 

Kdiff KE - KV

 

WPE = Within Precinct Error = (KE-KV)-(BE-BV)

Within Precinct Error (WPE) = average difference in margin between the exit poll and recorded vote for all sampled precincts in a state.

 

MoE = State Exit Poll Margin of Error

 

Probability of State Exit Poll Discrepancy

 

Kdiff/MoE   Prob

0.0         50% 

0.5         14%

0.8         6%

1.0         2.50%

1.5         0.16%

1.7         0.03%

 

 Kdiff > 1.0* MoE (less than 2.50% probability)

** Kdiff > 1.5* MoE (less than 0.16% probability)

 

 

State Exit Polls

WPE vs. Recorded Vote

Electoral Vote Probability Analysis

 

State  KEV    Vote   WPE    KE     KV     BE     BV     Diff   MoE    Kdiff/MoE

Total  325    122.3  7.09   51.81  48.27  47.19  50.73  2.92   2.71   1.08

 

EAST

CT**   7      1,578  15.7   62.2   54.3   36.1   43.9   7.85   3.27   2.40

DC     3      378    3.4    90.9   89.2   37.8   9.3    1.70   1.92   0.88

DE**   3      226    15.9   61.3   53.3   37.8   45.8   7.95   3.48   2.28

MA     12     2,912  5.8    64.8   61.9   33.9   36.8   2.90   3.10   0.93

MD*    10     2,386  8.1    60.0   55.9   38.9   42.9   4.05   3.07   1.32

 

ME     4      741    3.8    55.5   53.6   42.7   44.6   1.90   2.20   0.86

NH**   4      678    13.6   57.0   50.2   42.1   48.9   6.80   2.27   3.00

NJ**   15     3,611  9.7    57.8   52.9   41.4   46.2   4.85   2.49   1.94

NY**   31     7,391  11.4   64.1   58.4   34.4   40.1   5.70   2.47   2.31

PA**   21     5,770  8.8    55.3   50.9   44.0   48.4   4.40   2.22   1.98

 

RI     4      437    4.7    61.8   59.4   36.3   38.7   2.35   3.30   0.71

VT**   3      312    15.0   66.4   58.9   31.3   38.8   7.50   3.56   2.11

WV*           756    (5.8)  40.3   43.2   59.0   56.1   -2.90  2.35   -1.23

 

MIDWEST

IA     7      1,507  3.0    50.7   49.2   48.4   49.9   1.50   1.96   0.77

IL     21     5,276  4.4    57.0   54.8   42.3   44.5   2.20   2.60   0.85

IN            2,468  1.5    40.0   39.3   59.2   59.9   0.75   3.17   0.24

KS            1,187  1.7    37.5   36.6   61.2   62.0   0.85   3.65   0.23

MI**   17     4,839  6.3    54.4   51.2   44.7   47.8   3.15   1.98   1.59

 

MN**   10     2,829  9.3    55.7   51.1   43.0   47.6   4.65   2.09   2.22

MO*           2,731  5.8    49.0   46.1   50.4   53.3   2.90   2.11   1.38

ND            313    (5.2)  32.9   35.5   65.5   62.9   -2.60  3.63   -0.72

NE*           778    8.1    36.7   32.7   61.8   65.9   4.05   3.37   1.20

OH**   20     5,626  10.9   54.2   48.7   45.4   50.8   5.45   2.21   2.47

 

SD            388    (4.2)  36.3   38.4   62.0   59.9   -2.10  2.45   -0.86

WI*    10     2,997  4.7    52.0   49.7   47.0   49.3   2.35   2.08   1.13

 

SOUTH

AL**          1,883  11.3   42.5   36.8   56.8   62.5   5.65   3.57   1.58

AR            2,021  0.5    44.8   44.5   54.1   54.3   0.25   2.61   0.10

FL**   27     7,610  7.6    50.9   47.1   48.3   52.1   3.80   1.84   2.07

GA            3,301  2.2    42.5   41.4   56.9   58.0   1.10   2.48   0.44

KY            1,796  (0.1)  39.6   39.7   59.6   59.6   -0.05  3.00   -0.02

 

LA            1,943  3.8    44.1   42.2   54.8   56.7   1.90   2.38   0.80

MS**          1,139  11.3   45.8   40.2   53.4   59.0   5.65   3.44   1.64

NC**          3,501  11.3   49.2   43.6   50.4   56.0   5.65   2.10   2.69

OK            1,464  (1.9)  33.5   34.4   66.5   65.6   -0.95  2.38   -0.40

SC**          1,618  10.0   45.9   40.9   53.0   58.0   5.00   2.34   2.13

 

TN            2,437  0.5    42.8   42.5   56.5   56.8   0.25   2.29   0.11

TX*           7,411  4.8    40.6   38.2   58.7   61.1   2.40   2.31   1.04

VA**          3,199  7.9    49.4   45.5   49.7   53.7   3.95   2.59   1.53

 

WEST

AK**          313    9.6    40.3   35.5   56.3   61.1   4.80   3.18   1.51

AZ*           1,051  4.6    46.7   44.4   52.6   54.9   2.30   2.27   1.01

CA**   55     12,420 10.9   59.8   54.3   38.9   44.4   5.45   2.22   2.45

CO**   9      2,130  6.1    50.1   47.0   48.6   51.7   3.05   1.95   1.56

HI     4      429    4.7    56.4   54.0   42.9   45.3   2.35   4.38   0.54

 

ID            598    1.0    30.8   30.3   67.9   68.4   0.50   3.91   0.13

MT            451    (1.8)  37.7   38.6   60.0   59.1   -0.90  3.78   -0.24

NM**   5      756    7.8    52.9   49.0   45.9   49.8   3.90   2.22   1.76

NV**   5      830    10.1   52.9   47.9   45.4   50.5   5.05   2.13   2.37

OR     7      1,837  0.0    51.3   51.3   47.2   47.2   0.00   3.00   0.00

 

UT*           928    6.4    29.2   26.0   68.3   71.5   3.20   3.18   1.01

WA**   11     2,859  8.4    57.0   52.8   41.4   45.6   4.20   2.12   1.98

WY            243    4.3    31.2   29.1   66.7   68.9   2.15   3.50   0.61

 

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

The New York Urban Legend

 

Table 16

 

Pre-election and Exit Polls

New York                   Kerry   Bush   Nader

Recorded vote              58.5%   40.2%   1.3%

Final pre-election poll    57       39     1

Projection                 59       40     1

 

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures

WPE (11.4)                 64.1%   34.4%    1.5%

Best Estimate              65.1    33.8     1.1 

Composite                  63.1    35.5     1.4

 

Table 17

 

Average Voting Machine WPE for all Exit Poll Precincts

Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the highest mean Within Precinct Error (-10.6%). 

Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (-2.2%)

New York votes 99% by Lever.

 

Polling

Place

WPE

mean

WPE median

 

Number precincts

Paper

Ballot

-2.2

-0.9

 

40

Mechanical

Voting

-10.6

-10.3

 

118

Touch

Screen

-7.1

-7

 

360

Punch

Cards

-6.6

-7.3

 

158

Optical

Scan

-6.1

-5.5

 

573

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Table 18

 

New York County Vote Changes

 
Vote Change            Kerry          Bush
Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%
Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%   
 
         Final Recorded Vote                                                                               
                 Total     Dem     Other    Bush              Dem     Other    Bush             
         2004     7,391    4,314    114     2,963            58.4%     1.5%     40.1%           
         2000     6,822    4,108    311     2,405            60.2%     4.6%     35.2%           
         Change     569      206   -197       558            -1.8%    -3.1%      4.9%            
                                                                                                
         Preliminary Recorded Vote                                                                         
         2004     6,892    3,993    104      2,796            57.9%    1.5%     40.6%           
         2000     6,270    3,747    300      2,222            59.8%    4.8%     35.4%           
         Change     622      246   -196        573            -1.9%   -3.3%      5.2%            
                                                                                       
         Change from Preliminary to Final                                                                           
         2004     499      321      10       167              64.3%     2.1%    33.6%    
         2000     552      361      11       183              65.4%     1.9%    32.7%         

 

 
Table 19
 
Seven Largest NYC Area Counties
 
                       2000                                 2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change   
County       Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY    BUSH
Total          7779     3093     69.6%    26.5%    4.1%     3442     66.0%    32.9%    1.1%     129         311      -89      5.4%     41.3%
                                                                                                                    
Brooklyn       1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%       75%
Suffolk        1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%       35%
Nassau         1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7         64.5     -14.7    -2%      30%
Manhattan      1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%      21%
Queens         1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%       36%
Bronx           912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8        19.7     -3.9     10%      59%
Staten Island   333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2        24.3     -2.9     -9%      40%
 
 

Table 20

 

New York County Vote changes from 2000-2004

 
                        2000                               2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change   
County       Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY    BUSH
Total         15553    6270     59.8%    35.4%    4.8%     6892     57.9%    40.6%    1.5%     247         573      -197     6.6%     25.8%
                                                                                                                    
Brooklyn      1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%       75%
Suffolk       1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%       35%
Nassau        1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7         64.5     -14.7    -2%      30%
Manhattan     1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%      21%
Queens        1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%       36%
 
Erie          1007     384      57%      37%      6%       411      56%      42%      2.2%     13.3         27.7     -13.5    6%       19%
Westchester    948      306      58%      37%      4%       377      58%      41%      1.5%     39.5         38.9     -7.3     22%      34%
Monroe         792      300      51%      44%      5%       330      50%      48%      1.6%     13.9         26.3     -10.2    9%       20%
Bronx          912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8         19.7     -3.9     10%      59%
Onondaga       485      190      54%      41%      5%       199      54%      44%      1.8%     5.4         10.1     -6.5     5%       13%
 
Staten Island  333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2         24.3     -2.9     -9%      40%
Albany         327      130      60%      34%      6%       136      60%      38%      1.9%     3.8         6.9      -5.6     5%       16%
Orange         284      118      46%      50%      5%       135      44%      55%      1.3%     5.1         16.0     -3.7     9%       27%
Rockland       250      117      56%      40%      4%       122      49%      50%      1.5%     -6.0         13.7     -2.7     -9%      29%
Dutchess       239      105      47%      47%      6%       114      47%      52%      1.6%     4.0         9.7      -4.7     8%       20%
 
Saratoga       168      89       45%      50%      5%       100      45%      53%      1.8%     4.7         8.3      -2.3     12%      19%
Niagara        180      87       52%      43%      5%       90       49%      49%      1.9%     -1.2         5.9      -2.7     -3%      16%
Oneida         209      87       45%      49%      5%       89       42%      55%      2.3%     -1.7         6.5      -2.6     -4%      15%
Broome         193      81       52%      43%      6%       84       50%      48%      2.0%     0.0         5.7      -3.0     0%       16%
Ulster         161      72       48%      44%      8%       84       54%      43%      2.3%     10.6         4.8      -4.1     30%      15%
 
Rensselaer     136      64       51%      43%      6%       67       49%      48%      2.2%     0.5         4.8      -2.4     2%       17%
Schenectady    131      63       53%      42%      5%       65       52%      47%      1.8%     0.0         4.0      -2.1     0%       15%
Chataqua       135      55       46%      49%      5%       57       45%      53%      1.9%     0.0         3.0      -1.4     0%       11%
Oswego         107      45       47%      48%      5%       49       47%      51%      2.0%     1.8         2.9      -1.3     9%       13%
Ontario        88       42       44%      51%      5%       47       42%      56%      1.6%     1.1         4.5      -1.4     6%       21%
 
Putnam         72       40       44%      51%      5%       44       41%      58%      1.1%     0.6         4.7      -1.7     3%       23%
Steuben        82       38       36%      59%      4%       39       34%      64%      1.7%     -0.3         2.9      -1.0     -2%      13%
Wayne          67       36       39%      56%      4%       39       38%      60%      1.7%     0.4         2.9      -1.0     3%       14%
Tompkins       67       37       54%      34%      12%      38       64%      34%      2.4%     4.8         0.6      -3.6     25%      5%
StLawrence     99       37       54%      41%      5%       38       55%      44%      1.9%     0.8         1.3      -1.1     4%       9%
 
Chemung        82       35       46%      50%      4%       38       43%      54%      2.4%     0.5         3.3      -0.6     3%       19%
Jefferson      83       27       42%      47%      10%      35       43%      55%      2.1%     3.7         6.3      -2.1     32%      49%
Cayuga         61       30       49%      45%      6%       32       50%      48%      2.2%     1.6         2.3      -1.0     11%      17%
Catargus       74       32       40%      55%      5%       32       39%      59%      1.8%     -0.3         1.5      -1.0     -3%      8%
Clinton        64       29       50%      44%      6%       31       52%      46%      2.1%     1.9         1.6      -1.0     13%      12%
 
Livingston     57       26       39%      56%      6%       29       38%      60%      2.1%     1.4         3.4      -0.8     14%      24%
Sullivan       63       25       50%      45%      5%       28       49%      50%      1.9%     1.0         2.5      -0.8     8%       22%
Madison        51       26       42%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      1.8%     0.9         1.7      -0.8     8%       12%
Warren         57       26       43%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      2.0%     0.7         1.9      -0.8     7%       14%
Herkimer       61       25       44%      51%      5%       26       41%      57%      2.0%     -0.5         1.9      -0.7     -4%      15%
 
Columbia       54       26       47%      46%      7%       26       54%      43%      2.1%     1.7      -0.8      -1.4     14%      -7%
Genesee        53       26       40%      55%      5%       26       37%      61%      1.6%     -0.8         1.4      -1.0     -8%      10%
Otsego         58       23       45%      48%      7%       25       47%      51%      2.0%     0.8         1.3      -1.0     8%       11%
Washington     51       22       41%      53%      6%       23       42%      56%      2.4%     0.8         1.4      -0.7     9%       12%
Greene         52       19       40%      54%      6%       23       39%      59%      2.0%     1.3         3.2      -0.7     17%      31%
 
Tioga          46       21       41%      54%      5%       22       40%      58%      1.7%     0.4         1.4      -0.6     4%       13%
Cortland       42       20       47%      47%      6%       21       47%      51%      1.9%     0.7         1.5      -0.7     7%       16%
Fulton         49       21       43%      53%      4%       21       41%      57%      1.9%     -0.4         0.6      -0.5     -4%      6%
Delaware       59       19       42%      53%      5%       20       40%      58%      2.4%     0.2         1.6      -0.5     3%       16%
Montgomery     49       20       49%      47%      4%       20       44%      54%      1.9%     -0.9         1.4      -0.4     -9%      15%
 
Chenang        39       19       45%      50%      5%       20       43%      55%      2.0%     -0.1         1.3      -0.6     -1%      14%
Allegany       41       17       35%      61%      5%       18       34%      64%      1.7%     0.0         1.0      -0.5     0%       10%
Essex          39       16       44%      49%      7%       17       46%      52%      2.2%     0.6         0.9      -0.7     8%       11%
Wyoming        39       17       35%      60%      5%       17       34%      65%      1.4%     -0.1         0.9      -0.5     -2%      9%
Franklin       49       16       50%      45%      5%       17       51%      47%      1.9%     0.6         0.7      -0.5     7%       9%
 
Orleans        40       15       38%      58%      4%       16       35%      63%      1.6%     -0.1         1.2      -0.4     -2%      13%
Seneca         27       13       48%      47%      5%       14       45%      52%      2.1%     0.1         1.3      -0.4     2%       21%
Schoharie      29       13       39%      55%      5%       13       39%      59%      2.1%     0.2         0.9      -0.4     4%       14%
Lewis          30       10       40%      56%      4%       11       40%      58%      1.9%     0.3         0.6      -0.2     8%       10%
Yates          20       9        39%      55%      5%       10       39%      60%      1.6%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     5%       15%
 
Schuyler       17       8        40%      54%      6%       8        40%      58%      1.9%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     8%       18%
Hamilton       11       3        29%      64%      7%       3        32%      66%      1.6%     0.1         0.1      -0.2     15%      6%
                                                              
________________________________________________________________________
 
Table 21
 
NY 2000-2004 County Vote Margin Analysis
 

The 2000 data includes the first 6.27 of 6.82m recorded votes (Gore won 65.4% of the final 552,000)

The 2004 data includes the first 6.89 of 7.39m recorded votes (Kerry won 64.3% of the final 499,000).

 
Vote Change            Kerry          Bush
Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%
Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%   
 
         Final Recorded Vote                                                                               
                 Total     Dem     Other    Bush              Dem     Other    Bush             
         2004     7,391    4,314    114     2,963            58.4%     1.5%     40.1%           
         2000     6,822    4,108    311     2,405            60.2%     4.6%     35.2%           
         Change     569      206   -197       558            -1.8%    -3.1%      4.9%            
                                                                                                
         Preliminary Recorded Vote                                                                         
         2004     6,892    3,993    104      2,796            57.9%    1.5%     40.6%           
         2000     6,270    3,747    300      2,222            59.8%    4.8%     35.4%           
         Change     622      246   -196        573            -1.9%   -3.3%      5.2%            
                                                                                       
         Change from Preliminary to Final                                                                           
         2004     499      321      10       167              64.3%     2.1%    33.6%    
         2000     552      361      11       183              65.4%     1.9%    32.7%         
 
         
Analysis of Changes in Margin                                                                        
 
                  2000                      Gore             2004                      Kerry            Increase in Bush 
County            Gore    Bush     Nader    Margin           Kerry    Bush     Nader    Margin            Margin   Vote 
 
Albany           59.7%    34.0%    6.3%     25.7%            60.2%    37.8%    1.9%     22.4%             3.3%     6922
Allegany         34.7%    60.5%    4.8%     -25.8%           33.8%    64.5%    1.7%     -30.6%            4.8%     1031
Bronx            86.0%    11.9%    2.1%     74.1%            82.7%    16.7%    0.6%     66.0%             8.0%     19734
Brooklyn         79.9%    16.1%    4.0%     63.9%            74.3%    24.8%    0.8%     49.5%             14.4%    67235
Broome           51.8%    42.5%    5.7%     9.3%             50.1%    47.9%    2.0%     2.2%              7.0%     5684
 
Catargus         40.4%    54.6%    5.1%     -14.2%           39.2%    59.0%    1.8%     -19.8%            5.6%     1453
Cayuga           49.3%    44.9%    5.8%     4.4%             49.9%    47.9%    2.2%     2.0%              2.4%     2266
Chataqua         46.3%    49.1%    4.5%     -2.8%            45.1%    53.1%    1.9%     -8.0%             5.3%     3038
Chemung          46.1%    49.8%    4.2%     -3.7%            43.4%    54.3%    2.4%     -10.9%            7.2%     3327
Chenang          44.8%    49.7%    5.5%     -4.8%            43.0%    55.0%    2.0%     -12.0%            7.1%     1343
 
Clinton          50.4%    43.9%    5.7%     6.4%             52.4%    45.5%    2.1%     6.9%             -0.4%     1565
Columbia         46.9%    45.8%    7.3%     1.1%             54.4%    43.5%    2.1%     10.9%            -9.8%     -829
Cortland         47.1%    47.1%    5.9%     0.0%             47.1%    51.0%    1.9%     -3.8%             3.8%     1498
Delaware         41.5%    53.2%    5.2%     -11.7%           39.8%    57.7%    2.4%     -17.9%            6.2%     1628
Dutchess         46.7%    47.1%    6.2%     -0.4%            46.5%    51.9%    1.6%     -5.3%             4.9%     9666
 
Erie             56.8%    37.4%    5.9%     19.4%            56.2%    41.6%    2.2%     14.6%             4.8%     27705
Essex            44.2%    49.0%    6.8%     -4.8%            45.7%    52.2%    2.2%     -6.5%             1.7%     912
Franklin         50.1%    44.6%    5.3%     5.5%             51.4%    46.7%    1.9%     4.7%              0.8%     678
Fulton           42.7%    53.1%    4.2%     -10.5%           41.3%    56.8%    1.9%     -15.6%            5.1%     644
Genesee          39.8%    54.9%    5.2%     -15.1%           37.2%    61.2%    1.6%     -23.9%            8.9%     1393
 
Greene           40.0%    53.8%    6.2%     -13.7%           39.2%    58.8%    2.0%     -19.7%            5.9%     3237
Hamilton         28.8%    64.3%    6.9%     -35.5%           32.2%    66.2%    1.6%     -34.0%           -1.5%     131
Herkimer         44.1%    51.1%    4.8%     -7.1%            41.0%    57.0%    2.0%     -16.0%            9.0%     1910
Jefferson        42.3%    47.4%    10.3%    -5.1%            43.2%    54.7%    2.1%     -11.5%            6.4%     6343
Lewis            39.7%    56.0%    4.3%     -16.4%           40.3%    57.9%    1.9%     -17.6%            1.3%     575
 
Livingston       38.6%    55.9%    5.5%     -17.3%           38.1%    59.8%    2.1%     -21.7%            4.3%     3363
Madison          42.5%    52.3%    5.2%     -9.8%            43.0%    55.2%    1.8%     -12.2%            2.4%     1686
Manhattan        78.5%    15.1%    6.3%     63.4%            81.9%    16.7%    1.4%     65.3%            -1.9%     16421
Monroe           50.8%    44.1%    5.1%     6.6%             50.4%    48.1%    1.6%     2.3%              4.4%     26322
Montgomery       49.3%    46.9%    3.8%     2.5%             44.5%    53.6%    1.9%     -9.1%             11.6%    1388
 
Nassau           57.6%    38.7%    3.7%     18.9%            52.3%    46.7%    1.0%     5.6%              13.3%    64523
Niagara          51.7%    43.3%    5.0%     8.4%             49.2%    48.9%    1.9%     0.3%              8.1%     5919
Oneida           45.4%    49.3%    5.3%     -3.9%            42.3%    55.4%    2.3%     -13.1%            9.2%     6538
Onondaga         53.8%    40.9%    5.3%     12.9%            54.1%    44.1%    1.8%     9.9%              3.0%     10102
Ontario          43.6%    51.4%    5.0%     -7.9%            42.0%    56.4%    1.6%     -14.4%            6.6%     4541
 
Orange           45.8%    49.6%    4.6%     -3.8%            43.6%    55.0%    1.3%     -11.4%            7.6%     16027
Orleans          37.8%    58.0%    4.2%     -20.2%           35.5%    63.0%    1.6%     -27.5%            7.3%     1150
Oswego           47.0%    48.1%    4.9%     -1.0%            47.4%    50.6%    2.0%     -3.1%             2.1%     2869
Otsego           45.4%    48.1%    6.5%     -2.7%            46.8%    51.2%    2.0%     -4.4%             1.7%     1252
Putnam           43.5%    51.0%    5.5%     -7.4%            41.3%    57.5%    1.1%     -16.2%            8.8%     4697
 
Queens           74.2%    22.5%    3.2%     51.7%            71.2%    28.0%    0.8%     43.2%             8.5%     41325
Rensselaer       50.9%    43.2%    6.0%     7.7%             49.4%    48.4%    2.2%     1.0%              6.7%     4817
Rockland         55.9%    40.2%    3.9%     15.7%            48.7%    49.8%    1.5%     -1.1%             16.8%    13655
St Lawrence      53.9%    41.2%    4.9%     12.7%            54.6%    43.5%    1.9%     11.0%             1.6%     1319
Saratoga         45.4%    50.0%    4.7%     -4.6%            45.2%    53.0%    1.8%     -7.8%             3.2%     8344
 
Schenectady      53.2%    41.7%    5.2%     11.5%            51.5%    46.7%    1.8%     4.9%              6.6%     4008
Schoharie        39.3%    55.5%    5.2%     -16.1%           38.6%    59.4%    2.1%     -20.8%            4.7%     941
Schuyler         40.4%    53.8%    5.9%     -13.4%           40.0%    58.1%    1.9%     -18.1%            4.7%     721
Seneca           47.9%    46.7%    5.4%     1.3%             45.5%    52.5%    2.1%     -7.0%             8.2%     1277
Staten Island    51.8%    45.2%    3.1%     6.6%             42.3%    56.9%    0.8%     -14.7%            21.3%    24335
 
Steuben          36.3%    59.4%    4.3%     -23.2%           33.9%    64.4%    1.7%     -30.5%            7.3%     2906
Suffolk          53.2%    41.8%    5.0%     11.4%            49.1%    48.8%    2.1%     0.3%              11.2%    77671
Sullivan         49.8%    45.0%    5.2%     4.7%             48.5%    49.5%    1.9%     -1.0%             5.8%     2513
Tioga            40.8%    54.5%    4.7%     -13.6%           40.3%    58.0%    1.7%     -17.7%            4.1%     1447
Tompkins         54.0%    33.7%    12.3%    20.3%            63.9%    33.7%    2.4%     30.2%            -10.0%    627
 
Ulster           48.2%    43.5%    8.3%     4.6%             54.3%    43.4%    2.3%     10.9%            -6.3%     4831
Warren           43.2%    51.7%    5.1%     -8.6%            42.9%    55.1%    2.0%     -12.2%            3.7%     1913
Washington       41.1%    53.1%    5.7%     -12.0%           42.1%    55.6%    2.4%     -13.5%            1.5%     1351
Wayne            39.2%    56.4%    4.4%     -17.2%           38.0%    60.4%    1.7%     -22.4%            5.2%     2857
Westchester      58.4%    37.4%    4.2%     21.0%            57.9%    40.7%    1.5%     17.2%             3.8%     38923
 
Wyoming          35.0%    60.4%    4.6%     -25.4%           33.7%    64.9%    1.4%     -31.2%            5.8%     919
Yates            39.5%    55.4%    5.1%     -15.9%           38.8%    59.6%    1.6%     -20.8%            4.9%     735