2000 Voter Turnout in 2004: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 
TruthIsAll

 

To believe that Bush won by 3 million votes in 2004, you must also believe that 60% of Gore voters returned to the polls - as opposed to 95% of Bush voters.

Objective: Determine Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004 required to match the recorded vote.

Data
2000 recorded vote: 105.4m
2004 recorded vote: 122.3m
2004 Census total votes cast: 125.7m
2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am Composite)

Assumptions
1.25% Annual voter mortality
95% turnout of Bush 2000 voters in 2004

Conclusions
To match the recorded 2004 vote, you must believe that only 60% of Gore 2000 voters turned out.

You must believe that 29 million Gore voters and 45 million Bush voters returned to vote in 2004.
 A 16 million excess of returning Bush voters is implausible. Therefore, so is the official vote.

But saying the official vote is “ implausible” is an understatement.

The official election results are bogus.

 

Kerry did not lose by 3 million votes.

He won by 8-10 million votes.

And that is plausible if you just crunch the numbers.

Read on.

 

 
Election Calculator Model

 

Maximum number of 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004

 

2000   Voted  Died   Alive
Gore   51.00  2.53   48.47
Bush   50.46  2.54   47.91
Other  3.96   0.20   3.76
                                 
Total  105.42 5.27   100.15
 

 

Implausible Scenario

60% Gore voter turnout

Bush wins by 3.3 million votes
 

Turnout       Voted  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other
DNV      -    47.6   37.8%  57%    41%    2%
Gore    60%   29.0   23.1%  91%    9%     0%
Bush    95%   45.5   36.2%  10%    90%    0%
Other   95%   3.6    2.8%   64%    17%    19%
                                 
Total   78.2  125.7  100%   48.1%  50.7%  1.2%
                    125.7   60.4   63.7   1.6

 

Plausible “True Vote” Scenario

95% Gore voter turnout

Kerry wins by 8.0 million votes
                          
Turnout       Voted  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other

DNV      -    30.6   24.3%  57%    41%    2%

Gore    95%   46.0   36.6%  91%    9%     0%

Bush    95%   45.5   36.2%  10%    90%    0%

Other   95%   3.6    2.8%   64%    17%    19%

                                 

Total   95.1  125.7  100%   52.6%  46.4%  1.0%

                    125.7   66.2   58.2   1.3

 

Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry wins all scenarios in which Gore voter turnout is 76% or greater.

Scenario I: 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout vs. 76% Gore voter turnout
Kerry wins by 1.8m - a 50.1% share.

Scenario II: 99% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 5.1m - a 51.5% share.

Scenario III: 95% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 7.0m votes - a 52.2% vote share.
 
Scenario IV: 91% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 8.8m - a 53.0% share.

Bush2k   Gore Voter Turnout in 2004                   
Voter  60.0%  68.0%  76.0%  84.0%  92.0%
Turnout
in'04    Kerry National Vote
91%    48.8%  49.8%  50.9%  51.9%  53.0%
93%    48.4%  49.5%  50.5%  51.6%  52.6%
95%    48.0%  49.1%  50.1%  51.2%  52.2%
97%    47.7%  48.7%  49.8%  50.8%  51.9%
99%    47.3%  48.4%  49.4%  50.5%  51.5%
                                 
         Kerry Margin (millions)               
91%    (1.4)  1.1    3.7    6.2    8.8
93%    (2.4)  0.2    2.8    5.3    7.9
95%    (3.3)  (0.7)  1.8    4.4    7.0
97%    (4.2)  (1.6)  0.9    3.5    6.0
99%    (5.1)  (2.6)  0.0    2.6    5.1