When Decided: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

 
TruthIsAll

One month prior to the 2004 election, state and national pre-election polls indicated that the race was a virtual tie. But according to the Final National Exit Poll "When Decided" category, Bush won the vote of those who decided one month before the election by 53-46% and was a 51.2-47.5% overall winner. On the other hand, the 12:22am NEP showed a virtual 50-50 tie among those who decided one month before - and Kerry led by 51.2-47.9%. No surprise there. After all, just like all other demographic categories, Final NEP weights and vote shares were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote.

According to the Final NEP, Kerry won the 9% of voters who decided within 3 days of the election by 53-44% (or 55-45% of the two-party vote). The 12:22am update indicated it was 53-40% (57-43% two-party). Pollsters Zogby and Harris estimated that Kerry won 75% of the late undecided vote. Therefore his True Vote was probably better than the 51.2% indicated by the 12:22am NEP “When Decided” cross-tabs.

In fact, the True Vote (Kerry 52.5-Bush 46.5%) was previously calculated. It was based on the "Voted 2000" category using adjusted, feasible weights applied to 12:22am NEP vote shares (the Final NEP Bush/Gore 43/37% "Voted 2000" weights were mathematically impossible). The adjusted Bush/Gore weights were the ratio of a) 95% turnout of Bush and Gore 2000 voters (assuming 3.5% mortality) to b) 2004 total votes cast. Therefore, the 12:22am NEP "When Decided" Kerry vote shares were increased (see the True Vote cross-tab).

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. The Final Exit Poll “When Decided” weights and vote shares do not agree with historical polling statistics and the conclusions of two well-respected pollsters with a combined 70 years experience. Therefore, we must conclude that the 12:22am NEP is close to the True Vote. The Final NEP is once again exposed for forcing a match to a fraudulent recorded vote through the use of bogus weights and vote shares.

This is what Zogby said a few days before the election:

“The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent. And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about President Bush. The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness”.

Note: Final Zogby Election Day polling had Kerry winning by 50-47%, with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. It was not a good turnout; it was a great turnout. Officially, 122 million voted in 2004, compared to 105m in 2000, a net increase of 17m. But a closer analysis indicates that there must have been close to 30 million new voters. Here’s why: Approximately five million 2000 voters died prior to 2004. Assuming 95% turnout, another five million did not vote, so only 95m former 2000 voters returned to the polls in 2004. In addition, approximately three million ballots in 2004 were uncounted (a total of 125m were cast). Preliminary National Exit Polls indicated that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters, or 6m more than Bush.

Harris Interactive on Election Day:

“The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods of polling. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory. Harris Interactive’s final online survey of 5,508 likely voters shows a three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final Harris Interactive telephone survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point lead for President Bush. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted between October 29, 2004 and November 1, 2004. The telephone survey is consistent with most of the other telephone polls, which show the race virtually tied.

If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the election, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”

This is what the Gallup poll said about undecided voters:

“In the final USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a particular candidate. When Gallup, using a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent”.

Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll, answered questions about undecided voters and Bush approval on Election Day:

Is the presidential race still too close to call?

Yes. No matter how you look at the data, the two major-party candidates are neck and neck. Gallup's final Oct. 29-31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that if all registered voters actually turn out (which is not likely to happen, of course), John Kerry wins over George W. Bush by two points. Among likely voters, including our estimate of what the remaining undecided voters will do on Election Day, the race is dead even at 49% for each candidate.

Analyzing the data in other ways, such as modifying likely voter assumptions and changing turnout estimates, doesn't make a substantial difference in the election predictions. The support for both candidates is basically in the upper-40% range, and the final popular vote may well depend on which side is best able to mobilize its voters to go to the polls.

How does Gallup decide how to "allocate" undecided voters?

The allocation procedure is a Gallup tradition, and represents Gallup scientists' best estimate of what the final popular vote will be on Election Day.

Here's how it works. The unallocated numbers in the pool of likely voters (that is, the percentages of likely voters supporting Bush and Kerry, not including undecided voters) are 49% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. We assume, based on an analysis of previous presidential and other elections, that there is a high probability that the challenger (in an incumbent race) will receive a higher percentage of the popular vote than he did in the last pre-election poll, while there is a high probability that the incumbent will maintain his share of the vote without any increase. This has been dubbed the "challenger rule." There are various explanations for why this may occur, including the theory that any voter who maintains that he or she is undecided about voting for a well-known incumbent this late in the game is probably leaning toward voting for the challenger.

This persistent historical pattern is the basis for Gallup's decision to allocate the 3% undecided vote to Kerry and Nader/other, making the final estimate 49% Bush, 49% Kerry, and 2% Nader/other.

Certainly I believe that Florida is the place to start. With 27 electoral votes, Florida is the biggest prize of all the states that are still considered to be in play. Our final poll in Florida gives Kerry the edge, although not outside the margin of error.

How might the president's job approval rating influence the outcome of the election?

A president's job approval rating is an important indicator of re-election probabilities. But like so much else in this election, this measure isn't giving us a great deal of direction right now. Bush's job approval has slipped to 48% among national adults and is thus below the symbolically important 50% point. If we take that 50% line seriously, then Bush is in a less-than-auspicious position. No president since Harry Truman has won re-election with a job approval rating below 50%.

But the last two presidents who lost (George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter) had job approval ratings much worse than George W. Bush's 48%. He is clearly not as bad off as they were. On the other hand, the winners all had job approval ratings well above 50%. Bush is in a gray zone when it comes to his job approval rating.

What is the impact of turnout among younger voters?

We've heard a lot about the impact of younger voters this year. The data indeed show that Kerry does better among younger voters -- that is, those under age 30. Among all national adults in that age group, Kerry wins by a 59% to 34% margin.

When Decided

Composite NEP (12:22am)

Decided Weight Kerry Bush Other

Today 6% 53% 40% 7%

3 days 3% 53% 41% 6%

7 days 2% 48% 50% 2%

30 days 10% 60% 38% 2%

Over 30 79% 50% 50% 0%

Total 100% 51.2% 47.9% 0.8%

Votes 122.3 62.6 58.6 1.0

Final National Exit Poll

Decided Weight Kerry Bush Other

Today 5% 52% 45% 3%

3 days 4% 55% 42% 3%

7 days 2% 48% 51% 1%

30 days 10% 54% 44% 2%

Over 30 79% 46% 53% 1%

Total 100% 47.5% 51.2% 1.3%

Votes 122.3 58.1 62.6 1.6

True Vote

Decided Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other

Today 7.54 6% 66% 33% 1%

3 days 3.77 3% 66% 33% 1%

7 days 2.51 2% 50% 49% 1%

30 days 12.57 10% 61% 38% 1%

Over 30 99.33 79% 50% 49% 1%

Total Share 100% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%

Votes (census) 125.7 66.1 58.4 1.3

Sensitivity Analysis

Voted for Kerry

Over -----------------Decided Today--------------------

30days 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0%

Kerry national vote share

46% 48.5% 48.6% 48.7% 48.7% 48.8% 48.8% 48.9%

47% 49.3% 49.4% 49.5% 49.5% 49.6% 49.6% 49.7%

48% 50.1% 50.2% 50.2% 50.3% 50.4% 50.4% 50.5%

49% 50.9% 51.0% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 51.2% 51.3%

50% 51.7% 51.8% 51.8% 51.9% 51.9% 52.0% 52.1%

51% 52.5% 52.6% 52.6% 52.7% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9%

52% 53.3% 53.3% 53.4% 53.5% 53.5% 53.6% 53.6%

53% 54.1% 54.1% 54.2% 54.3% 54.3% 54.4% 54.4%

_______________________________________________________________

Voted 2000

Composite NEP (12:22am)

Weight Kerry Bush Other

New 11% 55% 43% 2%

Other 6% 61% 37% 2%

DNV 17% 57% 41% 2%

Gore 39% 91% 8% 1%

Bush 41% 10% 90% 0%

Other 3% 64% 17% 19%

Share 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Votes 122.3 62.6 58.1 1.6

Final National Exit Poll

Weight Kerry Bush Other

DNV 17% 54% 45% 1%

Gore 37% 90% 10% 0%

Bush 43% 9% 91% 0%

Other 3% 71% 21% 8%

Share 100% 48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Votes 122.3 59.3 62.5 0.5

True Vote

(95% turnout of 2000 voters, 3.5% mortality)

New Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other

DNV 27.02 21.49% 57% 41% 2%

Gore 48.08 38.23% 91% 8% 1%

Bush 47.56 37.83% 10% 90% 0%

Other 3.08 2.45% 64% 17% 19%

Share Total 100% 52.4% 46.3% 1.3%

Votes 125.7 125.7 65.9 58.3 1.6

___________________________________________________________

State Polls: Average Pre-election Trend

Poll Unweighted Weighted 2-party Projected

Date Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush

2-Jul 43.5 46.5 45.4 44.6 50.5 49.5 52.2 46.8

10-Jul 43.8 46.7 45.8 44.9 50.5 49.5 52.0 47.0

17-Jul 44.5 46.5 46.5 44.3 51.2 48.8 52.6 46.4

24-Jul 44.2 46.1 45.6 43.6 51.1 48.9 52.9 46.1

2-Aug 44.4 46.5 46.3 44.6 50.9 49.1 52.3 46.7

10-Aug 44.3 46.4 46.4 44.3 51.2 48.8 52.7 46.3

18-Aug 44.1 46.4 46.2 44.3 51.0 49.0 52.6 46.4

26-Aug 45.2 47.5 47.2 46.6 50.3 49.7 51.1 47.9

7-Sep 43.9 47.6 45.5 46.5 49.5 50.5 50.8 48.2

14-Sep 43.7 48.4 45.6 47.3 49.1 50.9 50.2 48.8

22-Sep 45.0 48.7 47.3 47.1 50.1 49.9 50.8 48.2

29-Sep 44.1 47.6 46.0 45.5 50.3 49.7 51.7 47.3

7-Oct 45.7 47.6 47.9 46.7 50.7 49.3 51.2 47.8

14-Oct 45.4 47.9 47.3 46.7 50.3 49.7 51.0 48.0

21-Oct 46.0 48.1 48.4 46.4 51.1 48.9 51.5 47.5

28-Oct 45.4 47.4 47.1 45.9 50.7 49.3 51.6 47.4

1-Nov 45.55 48.28 47.88 46.89 50.52 49.48 51.05 47.95

National Polls: Pre-election Trend

Average monthly national pre-election (18 polls)
 
 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
Kerry 40.78 47.80 47.58 46.31 46.86 46.64 47.47 47.40 44.33 47.17
Bush 51.56 46.10 44.83 45.62 44.71 45.71 45.20 45.40 48.28 46.89

Average monthly approval rating (11 polls)
Bush 54.4 49.5 48.8 48.6 45.2 47.0 47.8 48.0 49.1 48.5 

Undecided voters: 75% to Kerry

Poll Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct

Kerry 45.78 51.62 52.52 51.62 52.43 51.62 52.22 52.05 49.12 50.88

Bush 53.22 47.38 46.48 47.38 46.57 47.38 46.78 46.95 49.88 48.12

Other 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

2-party

Kerry 46.53 52.38 53.27 52.37 53.18 52.38 52.97 52.80 49.88 51.63

Bush 53.47 47.62 46.73 47.63 46.82 47.62 47.03 47.20 50.12 48.37

National Polling Detail

TIPP

Kerry na 44 45 40 43 43 46 44 46 44

Bush na 41 43 44 42 44 43 44 45 45

Proj na 54.5 53.3 51.3 53.5 52.0 53.5 52.3 52.0 51.5

ABC

Kerry na 52 53 48 49 53 47 49 45 48

Bush na 43 44 49 47 45 49 48 51 47

Proj na 55.0 54.5 49.5 51.3 53.8 49.3 50.5 47.3 51.0

AP

Kerry 37 na 45 44 43 43 45 48 42 49

Bush 54 na 46 45 46 46 49 45 51 46

Proj 43.0 na 51.0 51.5 50.5 50.5 48.8 52.5 46.5 52.0

NWK

Kerry 41 50 48 50 46 46 51 52 45 45

Bush 52 45 45 43 45 45 45 44 50 48

Proj 45.5 53.0 52.5 54.5 52.0 52.0 53.3 54.3 48.0 49.5

ARG

Kerry 47 48 50 50 47 48 49 49 46 49

Bush 46 46 43 44 44 46 45 46 47 48

Proj 51.5 51.8 54.5 53.8 53.0 51.8 52.8 52.0 50.5 50.5

NBC

Kerry 35 na 43 43 42 44 45 45 46 47

Bush 54 na 46 46 46 45 47 47 49 48

Proj 42.5 na 50.5 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 50.3 49.0 50.0

FOX

Kerry 32 43 44 42 42 42 42 45 43 48

Bush 54 47 44 43 42 48 43 44 45 45

Proj 41.8 49.8 52.3 52.5 53.3 48.8 52.5 52.5 51.3 52.5

CBS

Kerry 48 47 48 48 49 45 49 45 41 46

Bush 43 46 43 43 41 44 44 44 49 47

Proj 54.0 51.5 54.0 54.0 55.8 52.5 53.5 52.5 47.8 50.5

Gallup

Kerry 43 48 52 46 49 48 51 48 44 48

Bush 55 49 44 51 47 49 44 47 52 46

Proj 43.8 49.5 54.3 47.5 51.3 49.5 54.0 51.0 46.3 51.8

Pew

Kerry 41 47 48 47 50 46 46 47 40 46

Bush 52 47 44 46 45 48 44 45 48 45

Proj 45.5 50.8 53.3 51.5 53.0 49.8 52.8 52.3 48.3 52.0

LAT

Kerry na na na 49 49 51 48 46 43 48

Bush na na na 46 46 44 46 49 47 47

Proj na na na 52.0 52.0 54.0 51.8 49.0 49.8 51.0

Zogby

Kerry na na 48 47 47 44 48 50 44 47

Bush na na 46 44 42 42 43 43 47 48

Proj na na 51.8 53.0 54.5 53.8 54.0 54.5 50.0 50.0

TIME

Kerry 43 48 na na 51 51 50 46 44 46

Bush 54 50 na na 46 46 45 46 48 51

Proj 44.5 48.8 na na 52.5 52.5 53.0 51.3 49.3 47.5

Dem Corp

Kerry na 51 47 48 49 49 50 52 49 48

Bush na 47 50 49 47 48 47 45 49 47

Proj na 51.8 48.5 49.5 51.3 50.5 51.5 53.5 49.8 51.0

Marist

Kerry na na na na na na 45 45 45 49

Bush na na na na na na 44 44 47 48

Proj na na na na na na 52.5 52.5 50.3 50.5

Harris

Kerry na na na na na na na na 46 48

Bush na na na na na na na na 48 47

Proj na na na na na na na na 49.8 51.0

Economist

Kerry na na na na na na na na 46 49

Bush na na na na na na na na 46 45

Proj na na na na na na na na 51.3 52.8

ICR

Kerry na na na na na na na na 43 44

Bush na na na na na na na na 50 46

Proj na na na na na na na na 47.5 50.8