When Decided: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

 
TruthIsAll

 

One month prior to the 2004 election, state and national pre-election polls indicated that the race was a virtual tie. But according to the Final National Exit Poll "When Decided" category, Bush won the vote of those who decided one month before the election by 53-46% and was a 51.2-47.5% overall winner. On the other hand, the 12:22am NEP showed a virtual 50-50 tie among those who decided one month before - and Kerry led by 51.2-47.9%.  No surprise there. After all, just like all other demographic categories, Final NEP weights and vote shares were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

According to the Final NEP, Kerry won the 9% of voters who decided within 3 days of the election by 53-44% (or 55-45% of the two-party vote). The 12:22am update indicated it was 53-40% (57-43% two-party). Pollsters Zogby and Harris estimated that Kerry won 75% of the late undecided vote. Therefore his True Vote was probably better than the 51.2% indicated by the 12:22am NEP “When Decided” cross-tabs.

 

In fact, the True Vote (Kerry 52.5-Bush 46.5%) was previously calculated. It was based on the "Voted 2000" category using adjusted, feasible weights applied to 12:22am NEP vote shares (the Final NEP Bush/Gore 43/37% "Voted 2000" weights were mathematically impossible). The adjusted Bush/Gore weights were the ratio of a) 95% turnout of Bush and Gore 2000 voters (assuming 3.5% mortality) to b) 2004 total votes cast. Therefore, the 12:22am NEP "When Decided" Kerry vote shares were increased (see the True Vote cross-tab).

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.  The Final Exit Poll “When Decided” weights and vote shares do not agree with historical polling statistics and the conclusions of two well-respected pollsters with a combined 70 years experience. Therefore, we must conclude that the 12:22am NEP is close to the True Vote. The Final NEP is once again exposed for forcing a match to a fraudulent recorded vote through the use of bogus weights and vote shares.

 

This is what Zogby said a few days before the election:

“The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent. And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about President Bush. The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness”.

 

Note: Final Zogby Election Day polling had Kerry winning by 50-47%, with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. It was not a good turnout; it was a great turnout. Officially, 122 million voted in 2004, compared to 105m in 2000, a net increase of 17m. But a closer analysis indicates that there must have been close to 30 million new voters. Here’s why: Approximately five million 2000 voters died prior to 2004. Assuming 95% turnout, another five million did not vote, so only 95m former 2000 voters returned to the polls in 2004. In addition, approximately three million ballots in 2004 were uncounted (a total of 125m were cast).  Preliminary National Exit Polls indicated that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters, or 6m more than Bush. 

 

Harris Interactive  on Election Day: 

“The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods of polling. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory. Harris Interactive’s final online survey of 5,508 likely voters shows a three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final Harris Interactive telephone survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point lead for President Bush. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted between October 29, 2004 and November 1, 2004.  The telephone survey is consistent with most of the other telephone polls, which show the race virtually tied.

 

If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the election, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”

 

This is what the Gallup poll said about undecided voters:

“In the final USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a particular candidate. When Gallup, using a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent”.

 

Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll, answered questions about undecided voters and Bush approval on Election Day:

 

Is the presidential race still too close to call?

Yes. No matter how you look at the data, the two major-party candidates are neck and neck. Gallup's final Oct. 29-31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that if all registered voters actually turn out (which is not likely to happen, of course), John Kerry wins over George W. Bush by two points. Among likely voters, including our estimate of what the remaining undecided voters will do on Election Day, the race is dead even at 49% for each candidate.

 

Analyzing the data in other ways, such as modifying likely voter assumptions and changing turnout estimates, doesn't make a substantial difference in the election predictions. The support for both candidates is basically in the upper-40% range, and the final popular vote may well depend on which side is best able to mobilize its voters to go to the polls.

 

How does Gallup decide how to "allocate" undecided voters?

The allocation procedure is a Gallup tradition, and represents Gallup scientists' best estimate of what the final popular vote will be on Election Day.

Here's how it works. The unallocated numbers in the pool of likely voters (that is, the percentages of likely voters supporting Bush and Kerry, not including undecided voters) are 49% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. We assume, based on an analysis of previous presidential and other elections, that there is a high probability that the challenger (in an incumbent race) will receive a higher percentage of the popular vote than he did in the last pre-election poll, while there is a high probability that the incumbent will maintain his share of the vote without any increase. This has been dubbed the "challenger rule." There are various explanations for why this may occur, including the theory that any voter who maintains that he or she is undecided about voting for a well-known incumbent this late in the game is probably leaning toward voting for the challenger.

 

This persistent historical pattern is the basis for Gallup's decision to allocate the 3% undecided vote to Kerry and Nader/other, making the final estimate 49% Bush, 49% Kerry, and 2% Nader/other.

 

Certainly I believe that Florida is the place to start. With 27 electoral votes, Florida is the biggest prize of all the states that are still considered to be in play. Our final poll in Florida gives Kerry the edge, although not outside the margin of error.

 

How might the president's job approval rating influence the outcome of the election?

A president's job approval rating is an important indicator of re-election probabilities. But like so much else in this election, this measure isn't giving us a great deal of direction right now. Bush's job approval has slipped to 48% among national adults and is thus below the symbolically important 50% point. If we take that 50% line seriously, then Bush is in a less-than-auspicious position. No president since Harry Truman has won re-election with a job approval rating below 50%.

 

But the last two presidents who lost (George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter) had job approval ratings much worse than George W. Bush's 48%. He is clearly not as bad off as they were. On the other hand, the winners all had job approval ratings well above 50%. Bush is in a gray zone when it comes to his job approval rating.

 

What is the impact of turnout among younger voters?

We've heard a lot about the impact of younger voters this year. The data indeed show that Kerry does better among younger voters -- that is, those under age 30. Among all national adults in that age group, Kerry wins by a 59% to 34% margin.

 

When Decided

 

Composite NEP (12:22am)

 

Decided    Weight    Kerry  Bush   Other

Today         6%     53%    40%    7%

3 days        3%     53%    41%    6%

7 days        2%     48%    50%    2%

30 days      10%     60%    38%    2%

Over 30      79%     50%    50%    0%

                          

Total         100%   51.2%  47.9%  0.8%

Votes         122.3  62.6   58.6   1.0

 

Final National Exit Poll

 

Decided   Weight Kerry Bush Other

Today        5%   52%    45%   3%

3 days       4%   55%    42%   3%

7 days       2%   48%    51%   1%

30 days     10%   54%    44%   2%

Over 30     79%   46%    53%   1%

                    

Total      100% 47.5%   51.2%   1.3%

Votes     122.3 58.1    62.6    1.6

 

 

True Vote

 

Decided   Votes Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other

Today      7.54    6%      66%    33%    1%

3 days      3.77   3%      66%    33%    1%

7 days      2.51   2%      50%    49%    1%

30 days    12.57   10%     61%    38%    1%

Over 30    99.33   79%     50%    49%    1%

                          

Total Share        100%     52.5%  46.5%  1.0%

Votes (census)    125.7    66.1   58.4   1.3

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

                        Voted for Kerry

Over   -----------------Decided Today--------------------                               

30days 52.0%  53.0%  54.0%  55.0%  56.0%  57.0%  58.0%

                     Kerry national vote share

46%    48.5%  48.6%  48.7%  48.7%  48.8%  48.8%  48.9%

47%    49.3%  49.4%  49.5%  49.5%  49.6%  49.6%  49.7%

48%    50.1%  50.2%  50.2%  50.3%  50.4%  50.4%  50.5%

49%    50.9%  51.0%  51.0%  51.1%  51.2%  51.2%  51.3%

 

50%    51.7%  51.8%  51.8%  51.9%  51.9%  52.0%  52.1%

51%    52.5%  52.6%  52.6%  52.7%  52.7%  52.8%  52.9%

52%    53.3%  53.3%  53.4%  53.5%  53.5%  53.6%  53.6%

53%    54.1%  54.1%  54.2%  54.3%  54.3%  54.4%  54.4%

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

 

Voted 2000        

 

Composite NEP (12:22am)

 

       Weight Kerry  Bush   Other

New    11%    55%    43%    2%

Other  6%     61%    37%    2%

DNV    17%    57%    41%    2%

 

Gore   39%    91%    8%     1%

Bush   41%    10%    90%    0%

Other  3%     64%    17%    19%

                          

Share  100%   51.2%  47.5%  1.3%

Votes  122.3  62.6   58.1   1.6

 

 

Final National Exit Poll

 

       Weight Kerry  Bush   Other

DNV    17%    54%    45%    1%

Gore   37%    90%    10%    0%

Bush   43%    9%     91%    0%

Other  3%     71%    21%    8%

                          

Share  100%   48.5%  51.1%  0.4%

Votes  122.3  59.3   62.5   0.5

 

 

True Vote

(95% turnout of 2000 voters, 3.5% mortality)

 

New    Votes  Weight Kerry Bush   Other

DNV    27.02  21.49%   57%  41%   2%

Gore   48.08  38.23%   91%  8%    1%

Bush   47.56  37.83%   10%  90%   0%

Other  3.08  2.45%   64%  17%   19%

                                 

Share  Total 100%   52.4%  46.3%  1.3%

Votes  125.7  125.7  65.9   58.3   1.6

___________________________________________________________

 

State Polls: Average Pre-election Trend

 

Poll   Unweighted    Weighted       2-party     Projected    

Date   Kerry  Bush   Kerry Bush    Kerry   Bush  Kerry  Bush

 

2-Jul 43.5   46.5   45.4   44.6   50.5   49.5   52.2   46.8

10-Jul 43.8   46.7   45.8   44.9   50.5   49.5   52.0   47.0

17-Jul 44.5   46.5   46.5   44.3   51.2   48.8   52.6   46.4

24-Jul 44.2   46.1   45.6   43.6   51.1   48.9   52.9   46.1

 

2-Aug  44.4   46.5   46.3   44.6   50.9   49.1   52.3   46.7

10-Aug 44.3   46.4   46.4   44.3   51.2   48.8   52.7   46.3

18-Aug 44.1   46.4   46.2   44.3   51.0   49.0   52.6   46.4

26-Aug 45.2   47.5   47.2   46.6   50.3   49.7   51.1   47.9

 

7-Sep  43.9   47.6   45.5   46.5   49.5   50.5   50.8   48.2

14-Sep 43.7   48.4   45.6   47.3   49.1   50.9   50.2   48.8

22-Sep 45.0   48.7   47.3   47.1   50.1   49.9   50.8   48.2

29-Sep 44.1   47.6   46.0   45.5   50.3   49.7   51.7   47.3

 

7-Oct  45.7   47.6   47.9   46.7   50.7   49.3   51.2   47.8

14-Oct 45.4   47.9   47.3   46.7   50.3   49.7   51.0   48.0

21-Oct 46.0   48.1   48.4   46.4   51.1   48.9   51.5   47.5

28-Oct 45.4   47.4   47.1   45.9   50.7   49.3   51.6   47.4

 

1-Nov  45.55  48.28  47.88  46.89  50.52  49.48  51.05  47.95

 

 

 

National Polls: Pre-election Trend

Average monthly national pre-election (18 polls)
 
         Jan      Feb      Mar      April    May      June     July     Aug      Sept     Oct
Kerry    40.78    47.80    47.58    46.31    46.86    46.64    47.47    47.40    44.33    47.17
Bush     51.56    46.10    44.83    45.62    44.71    45.71    45.20    45.40    48.28    46.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average monthly approval rating (11 polls)
Bush     54.4    49.5     48.8     48.6     45.2     47.0     47.8     48.0     49.1     48.5 

 

 

Undecided voters: 75% to Kerry                                                                                             

Poll   Jan    Feb    Mar    April  May    June   July   Aug    Sept   Oct

Kerry  45.78  51.62  52.52  51.62  52.43  51.62  52.22  52.05  49.12  50.88

Bush   53.22  47.38  46.48  47.38  46.57  47.38  46.78  46.95  49.88  48.12

Other  1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00

                                                                    

2-party                                                                   

Kerry  46.53  52.38  53.27  52.37  53.18  52.38  52.97  52.80  49.88  51.63

Bush   53.47  47.62  46.73  47.63  46.82  47.62  47.03  47.20  50.12  48.37

                                                                    

 

National Polling Detail

                                        

TIPP                                                                

Kerry  na     44     45     40     43     43     46     44     46     44

Bush   na     41     43     44     42     44     43     44     45     45

Proj     na   54.5   53.3   51.3   53.5   52.0   53.5   52.3   52.0   51.5

 

ABC                                                                 

Kerry  na     52     53     48     49     53     47     49     45     48

Bush   na     43     44     49     47     45     49     48     51     47

Proj   na     55.0   54.5   49.5   51.3   53.8   49.3   50.5   47.3   51.0

                                                                    

AP                                                                  

Kerry  37     na     45     44     43     43     45     48     42     49

Bush   54     na     46     45     46     46     49     45     51     46

Proj   43.0   na     51.0   51.5   50.5   50.5   48.8   52.5   46.5   52.0

 

NWK                                                                 

Kerry  41     50     48     50     46     46     51     52     45     45

Bush   52     45     45     43     45     45     45     44     50     48

Proj   45.5   53.0   52.5   54.5   52.0   52.0   53.3   54.3   48.0   49.5

 

ARG                                                                 

Kerry  47     48     50     50     47     48     49     49     46     49

Bush   46     46     43     44     44     46     45     46     47     48

Proj   51.5   51.8   54.5   53.8   53.0   51.8   52.8   52.0   50.5   50.5

                                                                    

NBC                                                                 

Kerry  35     na     43     43     42     44     45     45     46     47

Bush   54     na     46     46     46     45     47     47     49     48

Proj   42.5   na     50.5   50.5   50.3   51.5   50.3   50.3   49.0   50.0

 

FOX                                                                 

Kerry  32     43     44     42     42     42     42     45     43     48

Bush   54     47     44     43     42     48     43     44     45     45

Proj   41.8   49.8   52.3   52.5   53.3   48.8   52.5   52.5   51.3   52.5

 

CBS                                                                 

Kerry  48     47     48     48     49     45     49     45     41     46

Bush   43     46     43     43     41     44     44     44     49     47

Proj   54.0   51.5   54.0   54.0   55.8   52.5   53.5   52.5   47.8   50.5

                                                                    

Gallup                                                              

Kerry  43     48     52     46     49     48     51     48     44     48

Bush   55     49     44     51     47     49     44     47     52     46

Proj   43.8   49.5   54.3   47.5   51.3   49.5   54.0   51.0   46.3   51.8

 

Pew                                                                 

Kerry  41     47     48     47     50     46     46     47     40     46

Bush   52     47     44     46     45     48     44     45     48     45

Proj   45.5   50.8   53.3   51.5   53.0   49.8   52.8   52.3   48.3   52.0

 

LAT                                                                 

Kerry  na     na     na     49     49     51     48     46     43     48

Bush   na     na     na     46     46     44     46     49     47     47

Proj   na     na     na     52.0   52.0   54.0   51.8   49.0   49.8   51.0

 

Zogby                                                               

Kerry  na     na     48     47     47     44     48     50     44     47

Bush   na     na     46     44     42     42     43     43     47     48

Proj   na     na     51.8   53.0   54.5   53.8   54.0   54.5   50.0   50.0

 

TIME                                                                

Kerry  43     48     na     na     51     51     50     46     44     46

Bush   54     50     na     na     46     46     45     46     48     51

Proj   44.5   48.8   na     na     52.5   52.5   53.0   51.3   49.3   47.5

 

Dem Corp                                                                  

Kerry  na     51     47     48     49     49     50     52     49     48

Bush   na     47     50     49     47     48     47     45     49     47

Proj   na     51.8   48.5   49.5   51.3   50.5   51.5   53.5   49.8   51.0

 

Marist                                                              

Kerry  na     na     na     na     na     na     45     45     45     49

Bush   na     na     na     na     na     na     44     44     47     48

Proj   na     na     na     na     na     na     52.5   52.5   50.3   50.5

 

Harris                                                              

Kerry  na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     46     48

Bush   na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     48     47

Proj   na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     49.8   51.0

 

Economist                                                                 

Kerry  na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     46     49

Bush   na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     46     45

Proj   na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     51.3   52.8

 

ICR                                                                 

Kerry  na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     43     44

Bush   na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     50     46

Proj   na     na     na     na     na     na     na     na     47.5   50.8