TruthIsAll Election Analysis

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic - beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytical evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Final national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares. All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004, but have deviated sharply from the vote since. The statement is a misconception; it is based on a comparison of FINAL exit polls in elections prior to 2004 and PRELIMINARY exit polls since. It's apples and oranges. But FINAL exit polls published in the media have always been FORCED to match the RECORDED vote. That's why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The RECORDED vote has deviated sharply from the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1968. Yes, it is true: UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate. They closely matched the True Vote in 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. FINAL exit polls have exactly matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to do so.

It is a documented fact that millions of votes are uncounted in every election. The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968, approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these are just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

My book, Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll, is a detailed analysis which proves that the recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. Unlike the misinformation spread in the media, voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures. It’s the fault of the humans who program them.

In the 1968-2008 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the recorded vote by a 49-45% margin. The Recursive National True Vote Model indicates that the Democrats actually won by 49-45%.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the average of the unadjusted state exit polls 51.6-41.8%. The 3% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 148 state elections, of which 138 shifted to the Republican. The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But 11 million votes were uncounted. Given that approximately 75% of the uncounted votes are Democratic, then it was a very close election, as evidenced by Dukakis winning the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% - and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%), but nearly 10 million were uncounted. In order to match the recorded vote, the National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that an impossible 119% of living Bush 1988 voters returned to vote in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls indicate that Clinton won by 18 million votes (47.6-31.8%) and had 501 electoral votes. The True Vote Model indicates that Clinton had over 50%.

In 2000, Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin compared to the 540,000 recorded. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. But the Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV) when they stopped the recount in Florida – where 185,000 ballots were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in this election.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly 2004 Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters - but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004. Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. The Final NEP implied that there was an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004. The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.

But there was much further confirmation of a Kerry landslide. Consider Final NEP adjustments made to Bush’s approval rating and Party–ID crosstabs.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. But the Final NEP indicated that he had a 53% rating – even though he had just 50% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential between the Final NEP and state exit poll approval ratings, let’s deduct 3% from his 48% pre-election approval, giving him a 45% vote share. That is a virtual match to the True Vote Model (which Kerry won by 53.5-45.5%). The exit pollsters inflated Bush’s final pre-election 48% average rating by 5% in the Final NEP order to force a match to the recorded vote - and perpetuate the fraud. Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate understated his True Vote Model share. There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and unadjusted exit poll share.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. As they did in all demographic crosstabs, the pollsters had to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote; they needed to specify a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93.

This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% - before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters - but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms, the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate and Governor were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

Statistical Analysis

2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model

Footprints: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis

To Believe Bush Won in 2004, You Must Believe...

To Believe Obama Won the Recorded Vote by 9.5 Million...

New York Voting Anomalies

A Comparative Statistical Analysis of Oregon's mail-in Voting System

Oregon Mail-in Ballots vs. New York Lever Machines / Central Tabulators

Response to Exit Poll Naysayers and Gatekeepers of the Left

What the Pollsters and Pundits Won’t Tell You

Election Fraud Lockdown

Response to the Mark Lindeman (TruthIsAll FAQ)

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo

An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud

Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com

Debunking the Mystery Pollster’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article

A Reply to Howard Stanislevic's "Return to Innocence"

Calling Out the New York Lever Voting Shills

Open Letter to Nate Silver

Open Letter to Nate Silver (part 2)

Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver

A Reply to Nate Silver's “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Deleted: A Comment on the Nate Silver / NY Times blog

The Research 2000 Pile-on

Open Letter to Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos

2008 Tracking Poll Volatility Analysis: R2K vs. Gallup

Myths and Disinformation

Election Myths

Reluctant Bush Responder

Swing vs. Red shift: 1992-2004

Swing vs. Red shift: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: A Rebuttal

A Conversation about False Recall

False Recall: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: Exposed by the Final National Exit Poll

Uncounted and Switched Votes

Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

Required Turnout: The Phantom Bush Voter Society

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court and Recall Elections

Recall Elections: An Exit Poll, Recorded and True Vote Comparison

Will the Wisconsin Democratic Recall Elections Be Stolen? A True Vote Analysis

Did the GOP Steal the Wisconsin Recall Elections? A True Vote Analysis

Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

Wisconsin Supreme Court County Vote Analysis

2010 Midterms

House and Senate Forecasting Model

Post-election Analysis: RV/ LV Polls. Exit Polls and Recorded Votes

Governor True Vote

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Jersey

Senate True Vote

Massachusetts: Coakley won the Hand Counts

2008

Election Fraud Analytics

The Primaries: Footprints of Election Fraud

A Conversation about the 2008 Election

Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes

2006

Midterms Overview

Quantifying the Risk

Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model

2004

Electoral Vote Forecasting with Monte Carlo Simulation

2004 Election Model

State Pre-election Polling Trend

National RV and LV Poll Trend

USCV exit poll analysis

Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

Introduction: To Believe Bush Won...

1. When Decided

2. Bush Approval Ratings

3. The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

4. The Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Vote

5. Within Precinct Discrepancy

6. New Voters

7. Party ID

8. Gender

9. Implausible Gore Voter Defection

10. Voter Turnout

11. Urban Legend

12. Location Size

13. Sensitivity Analysis

14. Did Kerry Win 360 EV?

15. Election Simulation Analysis

16. Exit Poll Response Optimization

17. Florida

18. Ohio

19. New York

Appendix

A. Election Model: Nov.1 Projection

B. Interactive Monte Carlo Simulation: Pre-election and Exit Polls

C. 1988-2004 Election Calculator: The True Vote

D. The 2000-2004 County Vote Database

E. Statistics and Probability: Mathematics of Polling

Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader (Michael Keefer)

Keith Olbermann on 2004 Voting Irregularities

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud

Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won

A Conversation about the 2004 Election

County Votes: Florida, Ohio, New York

2000/2004 Recorded State Votes by Voting Method

2000

Miami-Herald: Gore won Florida by 46,000 votes!

Truthseekers

Stolen Election Videos

Bib Fitrakis: Missing Votes in Ohio 2006 Midterms

Op Ed News interview: Bob Fitrakis on new evidence of the 2004 Ohio stolen election

Free Press: New court filing reveals how the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked

Michael Collins: The Urban Legend

Michael Keefer: Footprints of Electoral Fraud

Election Fraud in America

Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader

The 2006 US Midterms: Another Stolen Election?

The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio

Greg Palast: Kerry Won

Recipe for a Cooked Election

Thom Hartmann: Evidence Mounts that the Vote May Have Been Hacked

Steven F. Freeman: The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy

Prof. John Allen Paulos: Final Tallies - Exit Polls: A Statistical Mystery

Robert Koehler: Silent Scream of The Numbers

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Was the 2004 Election Stolen?

Mark Crispin Miller: None Dare Call It Stolen

Some Might Call it Treason – An Open Letter to Salon

Jim Lampley: The Biggest Story of Our Lives;

Apologies; Ostriches; Revisiting the Biggest Story

Paul Lehto: Presidential Vote Recount Rigging in Ohio

Evidence of Election Irregularities in Snohomish County, WA

Ion Sancho, Leon Cty (FL) Supervisor of Elections: The Hursti Hack

Lynn Landes: Voting Security

Rebecca Mercuri, Ph.D.: Electronic Voting

Victoria Collier: A Brief History of Computerized Election Fraud in America

Diane Perlman: The Silence of the Scams: Psychological Resistance to Facing Election Fraud

__________________________________________________________________________

Miscellaneous

Reference Links

Postings (2004-2005)

Postings since 2005

1988-2008 Election Calculator

Interactive 2004 Election Simulation

Monte Carlo 2004 Polling Simulation

Historical Voting Machine Timeline

The 2004 Election Fraud Beginners Guide

Eye on Ohio: The Informed Citizen’s Guide to the 2004 Election

US Count Votes/National Election Data Archive

US Count Votes: History of the Debate Surrounding the 2004 Presidential Election

DrDebug: http://rigorousintuition.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/845

DUers byronius and autorank: http://www.truthisall.net/

Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)


	Recorded		True Vote		Margin	True Returning Voter Mix
	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Error	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	58.1%	40.3%	-10.5%	12.4%	46.9%	39.5%	1%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	53.6%	45.4%	-10.6%	17.9%	41.3%	37.7%	3%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	50.3%	46.0%	-3.9%	13.6%	46.1%	32.0%	8%

1996	49.2%	40.7%	53.4%	37.1%	-7.8%	9.4%	46.2%	27.9%	17%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	50.9%	30.8%	-14.6%	16.4%	41.5%	41.2%	1%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	49.6%	49.3%	-8.1%	11.0%	37.5%	50.9%	1%

1984	40.6%	58.8%	42.1%	57.2%	-3.1%	17.6%	35.2%	40.3%	7%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	42.7%	48.9%	-3.5%	16.8%	44.1%	37.6%	1%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	53.0%	45.2%	-5.7%	11.7%	35.7%	50.0%	3%

1972	36.2%	60.7%	40.4%	56.6%	-8.2%	19.5%	36.5%	33.7%	10%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	45.3%	41.9%	-4.1%	-	-	-	-

Avg	45.3%	48.9%	49.0%	45.3%	-7.3%	14.6%	41.1%	39.1%	5.2%

1968-2008 Final National Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote

	Recorded		Final NEP Voter Mix				Turnout required to match recorded vote
	Dem	Rep	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	13%	37%	46%	4%	87%	103%	451%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	17%	37%	43%	3%	93%	110%	98%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	18%	41%	33%	8%	96%	93%	92%

1996	49.2%	40.7%	13%	38%	31%	18%	86%	80%	80%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	18%	28%	53%	1%	74%	119%	85%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	8%	33%	58%	1%	85%	103%	93%

1984	40.6%	58.8%	16%	34%	44%	6%	93%	98%	81%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	16%	42%	41%	1%	94%	95%	59%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	15%	30%	53%	3%	91%	96%	89%

1972	36.2%	60.7%	11%	35%	44%	10%	92%	113%	83%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	20%	49%	31%	-	93%	99%	-

Avg	45.30%	48.90%	14.50%	35.50%	44.60%	5.40%	89%	101%	121%

Final 2004 National Exit Poll - forced to match recorded vote

(Impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and final vote share adjustments)

National

2000

2004

Vote shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

20,790

17%

54%

44%

11,227

9,148

416

Gore

55,436

51,004

48,454

45,249

37%

90%

10%

40,724

4,525

93.4%

Bush

51,376

50,460

47,937

52,586

43%

91%

4,733

47,853

109.7%

Other

4,160

3,953

3,756

3,669

64%

14%

22%

2,348

514

807

97.7%

NEP

110,973

105,417

100,147

122,294

100.0%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,031

62,039

1,223

101.4%

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

2004 True Vote Model

(12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of Election 2000 voters)

National

2000

2004

Vote Shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

22,421

17.8%

57%

41%

12,780

9,193

448

Gore

55,997

51,004

53,197

52,133

41.5%

91%

47,441

4,692

98.0%

Bush

50,870

50,460

48,327

47,360

37.7%

10%

90%

4,736

42,624

98.0%

Other

4,106

3,953

3,901

3,823

3.0%

64%

14%

22%

2,447

535

841

98.0%

True

110,973

105,417

105,424

125,737

100.0%

53.61%

45.37%

1.03%

67,404

57,044

1,289

98.0%

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

252 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

5.34%

-5.36%

0.02%

8,375

(4,997)

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

(Forced to match recorded vote, impossible 103% Bush and 452% third-party turnout of 2004 Election voters)

National

2004

2008

Vote Shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

17,078

13%

71%

27%

12,125

4,611

342

Kerry

62,158

59,028

56,077

48,607

37%

89%

43,260

4,375

972

86.7%

Bush

62,313

62,041

58,939

60,430

46%

17%

82%

10,273

49,553

604

102.5%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

5,255

72%

26%

3,783

1,366

105

451.7%

NEP

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

100%

52.86%

45.60%

1.54%

69,442

59,905

2,023

98.4%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

2008 True Vote Model

(Feasible 97% turnout of 2004 Election voters)

National

2004

2008

Vote shares

---Votes (000)---

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

16,441

12.4%

71%

27%

11,673

4,439

329

Kerry

67,370

59,028

64,001

62,081

46.9%

89%

55,252

5,587

1,242

97.0%

Bush

56,657

62,041

53,824

52,210

39.5%

17%

82%

8,876

42,812

522

97.0%

Other

1,710

1,224

1,625

1,576

1.2%

72%

26%

1,135

410

97.0%

True

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

100%

58.15%

40.25%

1.61%

76,936

53,248

2,124

97.0%

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.268%

50.731%

1.001%

Discrepancy